Jul 31, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 31 16:13:09 UTC 2015 (20150731 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150731 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150731 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 122,210 7,692,901 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150731 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150731 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 123,378 7,822,835 Jacksonville, FL...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Columbus, GA...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150731 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 48,182 1,960,884 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...St. Joseph, MO...Council Bluffs, IA...Bellevue, NE...
   SPC AC 311613

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT FRI JUL 31 2015

   VALID 311630Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF NEB/KS/IA/MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS WELL AS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES
   REGION TODAY...WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WI/MN. 
   THIS FEATURE WILL GRAZE PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON...WHERE AMPLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG INSTABILITY
   WILL BE IN PLACE.  A CONSENSUS OF 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM OVER PARTS OF EASTERN NEB AND
   SOUTHWEST IA AND TRACK SLOWLY SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHEAST
   KS/NORTHWEST MO THIS EVENING.  STEEP LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   STRENGTH OF CAPE VALUES SUGGEST A MARGINAL RISK OF GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL IN THE STRONGEST CELLS.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS STRONG HEATING OCCURRING OVER PARTS
   OF GA AND NORTH FL...WHERE DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE MID 70S.  THIS WILL
   YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF OVER 2000 J/KG.  VERTICAL SHEAR IS
   WEAK AND STORMS WILL BE VERY SLOW MOVING.  HOWEVER...MODEL GUIDANCE
   SUGGESTS SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THIS REGION
   THIS AFTERNOON...WITH A RISK OF GUSTY WINDS IN THE STRONGER CORES. 
   ORGANIZED SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED TODAY.

   ..HART/CONIGLIO.. 07/31/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z