Oct 16, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Oct 16 16:07:24 UTC 2017 (20171016 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171016 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171016 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171016 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171016 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171016 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161607

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1107 AM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Sporadic non-severe thunderstorms are possible over parts of the
   Southeast.

   A surface cold front is moving southeastward across the Carolinas
   into GA/FL, with the potential of scattered afternoon and evening
   showers and thunderstorms.  Relatively poor lapse rates and weak
   effective shear suggest that storms will be disorganized, with
   minimal severe threat.

   ..Hart/Jewell.. 10/16/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z