Sep 28, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Sep 28 16:28:56 UTC 2016 (20160928 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160928 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160928 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 42,255 11,526,224 Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
MARGINAL 54,855 11,989,014 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160928 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 31,036 8,333,182 Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Richmond, VA...
2 % 30,715 10,031,945 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160928 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 42,469 11,563,480 Washington, DC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
5 % 54,239 11,799,896 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160928 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 29,163 4,892,369 Greensboro, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...High Point, NC...Roanoke, VA...Gastonia, NC...
   SPC AC 281628

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1128 AM CDT WED SEP 28 2016

   VALID 281630Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF MD...VA...AND
   NC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THERE IS A THREAT FOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS...INCLUDING ISOLATED
   TORNADOES...OVER PARTS OF VIRGINIA...NORTH CAROLINA AND MARYLAND
   TODAY.

   ...MID ATLANTIC REGION...
   A LARGE UPPER LOW IS CURRENTLY CENTERED NEAR CHICAGO...TRACKING
   SOUTHWARD INTO THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS.  CYCLONICALLY CURVED AND
   MODERATELY STRONG MID-LEVEL WINDS EXTEND FROM THE BASE OF THE TROUGH
   INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...WHERE A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS
   IS IN PLACE.  INCREASING DAYTIME HEATING OVER PARTS OF MD/VA/NC IS
   LEADING TO POCKETS OF MODERATE CAPE AND THE LIKELIHOOD OF AFTERNOON
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  

   EARLY INITIATION MAY OCCUR OVER PARTS OF EASTERN VA INTO NORTHEAST
   NC.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY INCLUDE ROTATING STORMS CAPABLE OF LOCALLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.  PLEASE REFER TO
   MCD NUMBER 1738 FOR FURTHER DETAILS ON THIS REGION.

   BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE
   THROUGHOUT THE SLIGHT RISK AREA.  MOST MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST THAT
   SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS STRENGTHEN JUST AFTER DARK...WHICH WOULD
   IN TURN INCREASE THE POSSIBILITY OF A FEW TORNADOES IN THE STRONGEST
   CELLS.  OTHERWISE...DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT.  

   ...OH VALLEY...
   THE CORE OF THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK ACROSS PARTS OF IL/IND/OH THIS
   AFTERNOON...COINCIDENT WITH A POCKET OF COLD MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND VORTICITY ALOFT.  VISIBLE SATELLITE TRENDS SUGGEST THAT LITTLE
   IN THE WAY OF HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THE SURFACE
   BOUNDARY...LIMITING DESTABILIZATION.  WHILE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
   ARE EXPECTED IN THIS REGION...THE RISK OF LARGE HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   BELOW 5 PERCENT.  NEVERTHELESS SMALL HAIL AND FUNNEL CLOUDS ARE
   POSSIBLE IN THE STRONGER CORES THIS AFTERNOON.

   ..HART/GLEASON.. 09/28/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z