May 2, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 2 16:27:18 UTC 2016 (20160502 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160502 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160502 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 69,559 12,524,032 Charlotte, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Richmond, VA...
MARGINAL 218,337 34,371,206 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160502 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 5,930 6,529,406 Washington, DC...Arlington, VA...Alexandria, VA...Columbia, MD...Silver Spring, MD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160502 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 69,125 12,418,081 Charlotte, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...Richmond, VA...
5 % 219,195 34,566,155 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160502 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 39,228 4,401,722 Winston-Salem, NC...Roanoke, VA...Lynchburg, VA...Johnson City, TN...Danville, VA...
5 % 161,143 36,157,729 Baltimore, MD...Charlotte, NC...Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Atlanta, GA...
   SPC AC 021627

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1127 AM CDT MON MAY 02 2016

   VALID 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NRN VA TO PARTS OF THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT
   RISK...FROM THE MID ATLANTIC TO THE N CENTRAL GULF COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH DAMAGING GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL
   BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...MAINLY FROM NORTHERN
   VIRGINIA TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

   ...NRN VA TO PARTS OF THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
   A MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MO THIS MORNING WILL PROGRESS EWD
   TO THE APPALACHIANS BY EARLY TUESDAY...THOUGH AN MCV OVER NRN MS
   PRECEDES THE PRIMARY TROUGH PER RADAR MOSAICS AND VWP/S ACROSS THE
   TN VALLEY.  AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE
   SEWD OFF THE NW GULF COAST AND TO THE APPALACHIANS AND N CENTRAL
   GULF COAST BY TUESDAY MORNING.  CONVECTION ROOTED NEAR THE SURFACE
   IS ONGOING THIS MORNING INVOF THE COLD FRONT IN CLUSTERS ACROSS WRN
   TN AND JUST OFF THE LA COAST.

   WELL IN ADVANCE OF THE TN CONVECTION...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY AND
   SURFACE OBSERVATIONS REVEAL SUBSTANTIAL SURFACE HEATING FROM WRN NC
   TO W OF THE BLUE RIDGE IN VA.  MODERATE BUOYANCY /MLCAPE OF
   1000-1500 J PER KG/ WILL DEVELOP IN THIS CORRIDOR THIS
   AFTERNOON...WHICH WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF
   30-35 KT TO SUPPORT ORGANIZED CLUSTERS OR MARGINAL SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT WIDELY SCATTERED STORMS
   WILL FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND IN THE ZONE OF STRONGER
   SURFACE HEATING THIS AFTERNOON FROM NE TN AND WRN NC NEWD TO NRN
   VA...IN ADVANCE OF THE REMNANT MCV AND PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER
   THAT WILL ARRIVE LATE THIS EVENING.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS WILL BE
   THE MAIN THREAT...THOUGH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE
   WITH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS.

   SLOW EROSION OF THE STRATUS AND REMNANT COOL AIR WEDGE WILL MODULATE
   THE NERN EXTENT OF THE SEVERE THREAT ACROSS NE VA/MD/DE THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THE SLIGHT RISK AREA HAS BEEN ADJUSTED TO REFLECT THE
   MOST PROBABLE AREA FOR DESTABILIZATION TO W-SW OF THE DC METRO AREA.

   ..THOMPSON/MOSIER.. 05/02/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z