Apr 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Apr 24 16:34:37 UTC 2014 (20140424 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140424 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140424 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140424 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140424 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140424 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 174,174 14,654,448 Memphis, TN...Nashville, TN...St. Louis, MO...Little Rock, AR...Huntsville, AL...
   SPC AC 241630

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CDT THU APR 24 2014

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE ARKLATEX ENE INTO THE
   LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN
   MISSOURI THROUGH ARKANSAS INTO NORTHERN LOUISIANA THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH THE ACTIVITY THEN SPREADING EAST INTO PARTS OF THE
   LOWER OHIO...LOWER TENNESSEE...AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS THIS
   EVENING THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   PROGRESSIVE...MODERATELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE LWR
   48 THROUGH FRI...DOWNSTREAM FROM BROAD...AMPLIFYING TROUGH IN THE NE
   PACIFIC. SHORTWAVE TROUGH THAT CROSSED THE SWRN U.S. YESTERDAY IS
   NOW OVER NW OK. THE COMPACT...FAIRLY POTENT SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE
   GENERALLY ENE INTO MO/NRN AR THIS EVE...AND INTO IND/CNTRL KY EARLY
   FRI...AS IT ASSUMES A SLIGHT NEGATIVE TILT.

   ELONGATED SFC LOW NOW OVER ERN KS/NE OK...LARGELY AN EWD-DISPLACED
   LEE TROUGH...SHOULD CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN OVER CNTRL MO LATER
   TODAY...AND OVER CNTRL PORTIONS OF IL AND IND TNGT/EARLY FRI...AS
   UPR VORT OVERTAKES THE CIRCULATION AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT
   TRAILING SW INTO E TX. THE COLD FRONT...AND STRENGTHENING CONFLUENCE
   AXES TO ITS EAST...WILL SERVE TO FOCUS LOW-LVL UPLIFT AND POTENTIAL
   SVR TSTM DEVELOPMENT LATER TODAY THROUGH TNGT IN MOISTENING LOW-LVL
   ENVIRONMENT OVER SRN MO...AR...AND PERHAPS NE TX EWD INTO PARTS OF
   THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS.  

   ...OZARKS/ARKLATEX EWD INTO THE LWR OH...LWR TN...AND LWR MS VLYS
   TODAY THROUGH TNGT...
   A CONCENTRATED BAND OF STRONG DCVA/LARGE-SCALE ASCENT WILL TRACK E
   ACROSS MUCH OF AR AND MO TODAY...AND THE LWR OH AND TN VLYS TNGT...
   AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE OK UPR VORT. AT THE SAME TIME...ASSOCIATED BAND
   OF 40-60 KT 700-500 MB FLOW WILL OVERSPREAD THE REGION...CREATING A
   WIND ENVIRONMENT QUITE FAVORABLE FOR SVR STORMS/SUPERCELLS. MOISTURE
   INITIALLY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LIMITED...ESPECIALLY E OF THE
   OZARKS/OUACHITAS. BUT MOISTURE WILL INCREASE NWD THROUGH THE LWR MS
   VLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...AND LIKELY WILL BECOME SUFFICIENT FOR
   SVR STORMS...ONE OR TWO OF WHICH COULD YIELD A TORNADO IN ADDITION
   TO LARGE HAIL/DMGG WIND.

   LOW-LVL MOIST AXIS AHEAD OF COLD FRONT ATTM EXTENDS FROM E CNTRL TX
   NNE INTO ERN OK/SE KS/SW MO/WRN AR. STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE TO FORM
   WITHIN THIS CORRIDOR...BOTH ALONG AND AHEAD OF FRONT...THROUGH THE
   AFTN AS DCVA AND MODEST SFC HEATING FURTHER DESTABILIZE REGION  /REF
   MCD 392/. STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES AND STRENGTHENING /30-40 KT/
   SWLY DEEP SHEAR MAY SUPPORT A FEW STORMS WITH SVR HAIL AND WIND. A
   TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT...ESPECIALLY IN FAR ERN OK AND AR LATER
   TODAY...WHERE WIND PROFILES SHOULD EXHIBIT THE MAXIMUM DEEP VEERING
   AMIDST SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPR 50S TO LOW 60S F. 

   FARTHER E...OTHER TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM/INTENSIFY ALONG AND
   AHEAD OF PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE AXIS NOW OVER WRN AR. STRONG SFC
   HEATING WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF THIS AXIS OVER SE MO...ERN AR...AND NRN
   LA EWD INTO WRN KY...WRN TN...AND NRN MS THROUGH THE AFTN...WHERE
   /ESPECIALLY LATER TODAY INTO TNGT/ VEERING AND STRENGTHENING 850 MB
   WINDS WILL SUBSTANTIALLY INCREASE MOISTURE INFLOW ACROSS REGION.
   COUPLED WITH STRENGTHENING DEEP SHEAR /500 MB FLOW INCREASING TO AOA
   50 KTS/...SETUP COULD YIELD A SIZABLE N-S SQLN. EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS
   AND SUSTAINED CIRCULATIONS IN THE LINE COULD PRODUCE A COUPLE
   TORNADOES IN ADDITION TO DMGG WIND AND SVR HAIL. THIS ACTIVITY MAY
   REACH AS FAR E AS NW AL...MIDDLE TN...AND CNTRL KY EARLY FRI.

   ..CORFIDI/GUYER.. 04/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z