Jul 25, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 25 16:05:16 UTC 2016 (20160725 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160725 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160725 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 89,526 45,603,391 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
MARGINAL 288,620 32,786,572 Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160725 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 34,669 3,591,533 Albany, NY...Schenectady, NY...Utica, NY...Troy, NY...Binghamton, NY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160725 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 90,607 45,991,969 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
5 % 285,238 31,910,231 Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Louisville, KY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160725 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 111,102 726,768 Rapid City, SD...Bismarck, ND...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Mandan, ND...
   SPC AC 251605

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1105 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO
   SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OH VALLEY INTO THE
   NORTHEAST AND MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS APPEAR
   MOST LIKELY THROUGH MID-EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AND
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES.  ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO
   BE POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT OVER PARTS OF THE
   NORTHERN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   REGION...
   SEVERAL BANDS OF STRONG STORMS ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE WRN PARTS OF
   THIS AREA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON.  THE INITIAL ACTIVITY MOVING TOWARD
   SERN NY AND EXTREME NERN PA IS MOVING INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING
   SURFACE MOISTURE /DEW POINTS RISING INTO THE MID-UPPER 60S/ WHERE
   STRONG DIABATIC HEATING IS OCCURRING.  WARM MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES
   AND ASSOCIATED MODEST LAPSE RATES ARE TEMPERING THE MAGNITUDE OF
   INSTABILITY BUT SOME DESTABILIZATION IS LIKELY TO OCCUR AS LOW-LEVEL
   THETA-E INCREASES...WITH MLCAPE OF 1000-1500 J/KG EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THESE STORMS MAY BEGIN INTENSIFYING DURING THE EARLY-MID
   AFTERNOON AND WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED FOR  POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ALONG THE LEADING EDGE.

   UPSTREAM QUASI-LINEAR STORMS ACROSS ERN LAKE ERIE ARE IN CLOSER
   PROXIMITY TO THE PROGRESSIVE UPPER SHORT WAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED
   DYNAMIC FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT THAT IS CROSSING THE GREAT
   LAKES.  THEY ARE ALSO EMBEDDED WITHIN STRONGER DEEP LAYER WESTERLY
   FLOW /VAD PROFILES SHOW 30-40 KT WINDS ABOVE 1-2 KM AGL/ THAT WILL
   ADVANCE EWD ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.  THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
   MOVE EWD/ESEWD THIS AFTERNOON INTO A MORE UNSTABLE AIR MASS /MLCAPE
   OF 2000-2500 J PER KG/ OVER PA WHERE DEW POINTS ARE IN THE LOWER 70S
   AND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM INTO THE LOW-MID 90S. 
   STRONGER STORMS WILL HAVE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE DAMAGING DOWNBURST
   WINDS AS THEY SPREAD EWD/ESEWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC
   REGION.  

   ADDITIONAL STRONG/SEVERE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FARTHER
   SOUTH ACROSS PA TOWARD NRN WV AND MD/NRN VA AS THE CAP WEAKENS THIS
   AFTERNOON...WITH DAMAGING WIND POTENTIAL ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER
   STORMS.  THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING
   HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY DIMINISHING AFTER SUNSET.  

   ...NRN AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS AREA...
   RESIDUAL MOISTURE IS EVIDENT OVER THE PLAINS WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS
   NEAR 60F OVER THE HIGH PLAINS IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   GREAT LAKES SYSTEM.  STEEP LAPSE RATES OVER THE AREA AND STRONG
   DIABATIC HEATING THIS AFTERNOON WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AN AXIS OF
   STRONGER INSTABILITY NEAR THE N/S LEE TROUGH WHERE MLCAPE OF
   1000-2000 J/KG IS EXPECTED.  WIND PROFILES WILL EXHIBIT VEERING WITH
   HEIGHT...AND DESPITE MODEST WESTERLY FLOW IN THE MIDDLE LEVELS
   /20-25 KT AT 500 MB/...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL PROMOTE
   ORGANIZED PRIMARILY MULTI-CELL CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES FOR ANY STORMS
   THAT CAN DEVELOP.  GENERALLY WEAK FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT IS
   EXPECTED TO LIMIT OVERALL STORM COVERAGE BUT STEEP LAPSE RATES/DRY
   SUB-CLOUD LAYER WILL PROMOTE STRONG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLE HAIL
   WITH ANY PERSISTENT STORMS THAT DEVELOP.  

   OTHER STRONG NOCTURNAL STORMS MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF ND
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS.

   ..WEISS/CONIGLIO.. 07/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z