Nov 24, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Nov 24 16:23:04 UTC 2014 (20141124 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141124 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141124 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 44,254 3,770,568 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141124 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 43,963 3,721,999 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141124 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 44,147 3,759,224 Tallahassee, FL...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141124 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 241623

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1023 AM CST MON NOV 24 2014

   VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON FROM THE CENTRAL
   FL PANHANDLE NEWD TO THE ERN CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THUNDERSTORMS
   TODAY FROM THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TO THE EASTERN CAROLINAS.  OTHER
   STRONG WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM CENTRAL
   AND NORTHEAST OHIO TO NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA AND WESTERN NEW YORK.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SERIES OF EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA WILL ROTATE THROUGH THE
   LARGE-SCALE TROUGH THAT IS NOW ESTABLISHED OVER MOST OF THE CONUS. 
   THE STRONGEST JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE NEWD FROM THE UPPER OH
   VALLEY TO THE SAINT LAWRENCE VALLEY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WHILE A
   SEPARATE WAVE MOVES ESEWD FROM THE SRN ROCKIES TO THE SRN PLAINS. 
   THE PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE HAS ALREADY DEVELOPED NNEWD TO THE N OF
   LAKE HURON...WHILE THE TRAILING COLD FRONT MOVES EWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY.  THE SRN EXTENT OF THIS FRONT WILL MOVE MUCH SLOWER TO THE E
   ACROSS AL/GA/SRN APPALACHIANS...IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF THE
   UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  

   ...UPPER OH VALLEY TO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES TODAY...
   ASCENT IN THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE PRIMARY UPPER JET STREAK...IN
   CONJUNCTION WITH LOW-LEVEL LIFT ALONG A SURFACE COLD FRONT...IS
   SUPPORTING A BAND OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION ACROSS CENTRAL/N CENTRAL
   OH.  THE DEPTH AND VIGOR OF THIS CONVECTION HAS BEEN DIMINISHING
   OVER THE PAST 1-2 HOURS...AND THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL LIGHTNING HAS
   DECREASED.  STILL...DOWNWARD MOMENTUM TRANSFER WITH SHALLOW
   CONVECTION COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED STRONG GUSTS THROUGH THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS NE OH...NW PA...AND WRN NY.

   ...NE GULF COAST TO THE SE ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH TONIGHT...
   A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG THE GRADIENT IN
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE/BUOYANCY FROM THE CENTRAL FL PANHANDLE TO SE GA. 
   THOUGH RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE IS PRESENT TO THE E-SE OF THE
   CONVECTION /BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW 70S/...12Z SOUNDINGS
   REVEALED POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES FROM THE SURFACE TO ALMOST 500 MB.
   DEEP-LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR AND BUOYANCY WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   ORGANIZED CELLS/LINE SEGMENTS WITHIN THE BAND.  HOWEVER...LIMITED
   SURFACE HEATING...POOR LAPSE RATE PROFILES ALOFT...AND A TENDENCY
   FOR WEAKENING LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WITH TIME SHOULD KEEP THE DAMAGING
   WIND RISK IN THE MARGINAL CATEGORY.

   ..THOMPSON/COHEN.. 11/24/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z