Feb 8, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 8 16:07:01 UTC 2016 (20160208 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160208 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160208 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160208 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160208 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160208 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 081607

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1007 AM CST MON FEB 08 2016

   VALID 081630Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM
   PARTS OF THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CAROLINAS.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY AS VORT MAX NOW
   OVER KY CONTINUES NE INTO SRN OH/WV...WHILE UPSTREAM SPEED MAX DROPS
   SE ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH. AT THE SFC...POLAR OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR
   WILL PREVAIL EVERYWHERE E OF THE RCKYS IN WAKE OF STRONG SYSTEM
   GLANCING SRN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SRN OH/KY SEWD INTO CAROLINAS THIS AFTN AND EVE...
   SATELLITE AND SFC DATA SHOW A CORRIDOR OF MODEST SFC HEATING/LOW-LVL
   CONFLUENCE OVER ERN KY/TN ATTM...ALONG COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH KY
   UPR IMPULSE. FURTHER LOW-LVL DESTABILIZATION SHOULD OCCUR AS THIS
   CORRIDOR SHIFTS E/NE INTO SRN WV...WRN VA...AND WRN NC LATER TODAY.
   WITH 500 MB TEMPS AOB MINUS 30 C AND SOME DEGREE OF LARGE-SCALE
   ASCENT PROVIDED BY UPR VORT...SHALLOW SFC-BASED CONVECTION NOW OVER
   REGION MAY SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN TO YIELD ISOLD THUNDER...DESPITE
   SCANT MOISTURE /PW AROUND ONE-QUARTER INCH/.  

   FARTHER S...A SECONDARY ZONE OF LOW-LVL CONFLUENCE MAY EVOLVE ALONG
   LEE TROUGH FROM ERN GA INTO PIEDMONT SC/NC...BENEATH
   AMPLIFYING...COLD CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS NOT
   HIGH...WITH PW INCREASING TO ABOUT ONE-HALF INCH JUST AHEAD OF THE
   TROUGH...AND WITH SFC TEMPS RISING INTO THE MID-50S F...SOME
   POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR ISOLD THUNDER WITH ANY DIURNALLY-ENHANCED
   CONVECTION THAT DEEPENS ALONG THE TROUGH.

   ..CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 02/08/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z