Dec 3, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 16:13:25 UTC 2016 (20161203 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20161203 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161203 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 44,140 5,322,559 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20161203 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 6,385 1,090,507 Beaumont, TX...League City, TX...Port Arthur, TX...Galveston, TX...Texas City, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20161203 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 42,431 5,433,794 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20161203 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 43,664 5,519,808 Corpus Christi, TX...Laredo, TX...Brownsville, TX...Pasadena, TX...Beaumont, TX...
   SPC AC 031613

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   VALID 031630Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY PRODUCE MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND STRONG TO
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH TEXAS...THE UPPER TEXAS
   COASTAL PLAIN AND SOUTHWESTERN LOUISIANA.  A TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED
   OUT...BUT THIS THREAT IS MARGINAL AND ISOLATED.

   ...TEXAS...
   A BAND OF FAST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT STRETCHES ACROSS TX TODAY...
   WHILE AN UPPER LOW DIGS SOUTHWARD INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO.  AT THE
   SURFACE...A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDS ALONG THE MIDDLE/UPPER TX
   GULF COAST.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN OCCURRING FOR THE
   PAST SEVERAL HOURS ALONG THIS BOUNDARY.  OCCASIONALLY...ISOLATED
   STORMS WILL SHOW WEAK TO MODERATE MID/LOW LEVEL ROTATION.  SURFACE
   OBSERVATIONS SUGGEST THE BOUNDARY IS WITHIN A FEW MILES OF THE
   COASTLINE...AND MODEL SOLUTIONS SUGGEST VERY LITTLE INLAND
   PENETRATION BEFORE NORTHERLY WINDS BECOME DOMINANT AND FORCE THE
   BOUNDARY BACK OFFSHORE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE...WILL
   MAINTAIN ONLY MARGINAL SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITIES IN THIS REGION. 

   FARTHER WEST...A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY AFFECT PARTS OF SOUTH-CENTRAL
   AND SOUTH TX LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.  HAIL APPEARS TO BE
   THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS...BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE RISK APPEARS
   QUITE MARGINAL.

   ..HART/MARSH.. 12/03/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z