Apr 16, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 16 16:16:37 UTC 2014 (20140416 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140416 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140416 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140416 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140416 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140416 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161613

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1113 AM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 161630Z - 171200Z

   ...NO TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LITTLE OR NO THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TODAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE MOVING EWD ACROSS THE
   U.S. TODAY...WITH CYCLONIC FLOW PREVAILING OVER THE MOST OF THE
   COUNTRY THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD.  AT THE SURFACE...A
   STRONG/COLD HIGH WILL PERSIST E OF THE MS VALLEY...WHILE FARTHER W A
   WEAK LOW/COLD FRONT CROSSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS VICINITY. 
   MEANWHILE...A BROAD REGION OF LOW PRESSURE WILL RESIDE OVER MUCH OF
   THE WRN PORTION OF THE COUNTRY.

   WITH A PRIOR COLD FRONT -- NOW CROSSING THE WRN ATLANTIC BUT
   LINGERING INVOF S FL -- HAVING USHERED IN COLD/STABLE AIR ACROSS THE
   ERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY...INLAND THUNDERSTORM RISK REMAINS LARGELY
   NON-EXISTENT.  SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A LIGHTNING STRIKE OR TWO COULD
   AFFECT PARTS OF THE S FL VICINITY...BUT ATTM IT APPEARS THE
   APPRECIABLE THUNDER RISK WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   ..GOSS.. 04/16/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z