Oct 22, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 22 16:26:32 UTC 2014 (20141022 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141022 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141022 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141022 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141022 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141022 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221626

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1126 AM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 221630Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY FROM
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES INTO THE GREAT PLAINS AND
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. OTHER THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   THE COASTAL NORTHEAST...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FAR
   SOUTHERN TEXAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A CLOSED LOW NEAR THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WILL DEEPEN AND OCCLUDE
   JUST OFF THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST TONIGHT.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST TODAY...AND THE RISK FOR A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST INTO TONIGHT OVER SE NEW ENGLAND. 
   HERE...LOW-LEVEL WAA/ASCENT AND WEAK BUOYANCY ROOTED NEAR 850 MB
   WILL SUPPORT A FEW ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS.  THE STRONGER BUOYANCY
   AND ANY ASSOCIATED STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT WILL REMAIN
   OFFSHORE.

   ANOTHER NRN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD FROM THE WRN
   DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY EARLY THURSDAY...ALONG WITH A WEAK
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT.  MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND LOW-MIDLEVEL
   MOISTURE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ELEVATED
   THUNDERSTORMS IN THE ZONE OF ASCENT ALOFT PRECEDING THE SURFACE COLD
   FRONT.  FARTHER S IN THE PLAINS...A WEAK SWD EXTENSION OF THE NRN
   PLAINS TROUGH WILL MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN HIGH PLAINS TODAY. 
   A MOISTURE PLUME IN ADVANCE OF THIS WEAK WAVE WILL SUPPORT  A RISK
   FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS FROM W TX NNEWD INTO KS.  ISOLATED
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS COULD FORM ALONG A WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY
   DRIFTING INTO W/NW KS THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH THIS BOUNDARY WILL
   BECOME MORE DIFFUSE WITH TIME...AND WILL BE BEHIND THE WEAK WAVE
   ALOFT BY MID AFTERNOON.  CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING STORM
   INITIATION AND THE VERY MARGINAL NATURE OF THE
   THERMODYNAMIC/VERTICAL SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WILL NOT INTRODUCE ANY
   HAIL PROBABILITIES.

   OTHERWISE...SOME LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION WITH ISOLATED LIGHTNING
   STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE PAC NW COAST AS THE NEXT STRONG
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH PROGRESSES INLAND.  AS WITH THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS
   ...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOIST
   ENVIRONMENT ACROSS S FL AND S TX.

   ..THOMPSON/KERR.. 10/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z