Jun 29, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 29 16:10:36 UTC 2016 (20160629 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160629 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160629 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 71,902 586,716 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
MARGINAL 393,365 13,404,233 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160629 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160629 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 72,386 589,810 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
5 % 393,827 13,471,359 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160629 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 35,298 193,523 Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Torrington, WY...
15 % 71,112 581,183 Rapid City, SD...Cheyenne, WY...Gillette, WY...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
5 % 383,958 12,393,038 Denver, CO...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...
   SPC AC 291610

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1110 AM CDT WED JUN 29 2016

   VALID 291630Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF ME AND NH...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...WITH A MORE ISOLATED
   RISK FARTHER EAST ACROSS NEBRASKA AND KANSAS.  A FEW STORMS WITH
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON
   ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...
   NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT IS PRESENT AGAIN TODAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS REGION...WITH WEAK EMBEDDED IMPULSES
   TRACKING FROM MT/WY INTO THE DAKOTAS/NEB.  SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE
   50S ARE PRESENT OVER MOST OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWING MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES.  THIS WILL YIELD
   STRONG SURFACE HEATING AND AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF 1500-2000
   J/KG.  12Z MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER SOUTHEAST MT/NORTHEAST WY THIS
   AFTERNOON AND TRACK INTO WESTERN SD/NEB.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   INDICATE FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORMS
   CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  ACTIVITY MAY TRACK
   AS FAR SOUTHEAST AS NORTHWEST KS/NORTHEAST CO THIS EVENING BEFORE
   WEAKENING.

   OTHER WIDELY SCATTERED CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
   OVER MUCH OF THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS STATES...BUT ACTIVITY
   WILL BE POORLY FOCUSED.  THEREFORE WILL MAINTAIN THE BROAD MARGINAL
   RISK AREA WHERE GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
   STRONGEST STORMS.

   ...ME/NH...
   A WELL-DEFINED UPPER TROUGH IS ROTATING ACROSS NY/VT THIS MORNING. 
   THIS FEATURE WILL HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON OVER PARTS OF NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.  WHILE A FEW STORMS
   MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL OR GUSTY WINDS...THE OVERALL THREAT APPEARS
   MARGINAL.  REFER TO MCD NUMBER 1088 FOR FURTHER DETAILS.

   ..HART/LEITMAN.. 06/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z