Mar 26, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 26 17:15:35 UTC 2015 (20150326 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150326 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150326 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 107,179 19,689,133 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150326 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 6,715 154,894 Elizabeth City, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150326 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 107,393 19,900,806 Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...New Orleans, LA...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150326 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 65,670 6,310,084 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Jackson, MS...Metairie, LA...
   SPC AC 261715

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1215 PM CDT THU MAR 26 2015

   VALID 261630Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EASTERN NC/MID-ATLANTIC...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS EAST/CENTRAL PA TO NORTHERN
   MD/VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF LA/MS/AL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY AND PRECEDE A COLD FRONT OVER
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND EASTERN U.S. TODAY. LOCALLY STRONG WINDS
   MAY OCCUR WITH SOME OF THE STORMS OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC AND GULF
   COAST REGIONS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   AMPLIFIED WRN RIDGE - CNTR/ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY
   THIS PERIOD AS JET STREAK NOW OVER SK CONTINUES SSE INTO MO BY 12Z
   FRI. AT THE SAME TIME...SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES WILL ACCELERATE
   ENE ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO...AND NE ACROSS THE OH AND TN VLYS
   IN STRENGTHENING GRADIENT ON E SIDE OF LARGER-SCALE TROUGH.  

   AT LWR LVLS...COLD FRONT NOW EXTENDING THROUGH THE OH AND LWR MS
   VLYS SHOULD CONTINUE STEADILY ESEWD TODAY...WITH ASSOCIATED SFC WAVE
   NOW OVER NRN KY MOVING ENE TO NJ BY EVE. AS THIS OCCURS...EXPECT
   DIFFUSE WARM FRONT TO ADVANCE E/NE THROUGH THE CHESAPEAKE BAY
   REGION. FARTHER S...CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY OVER N CNTRL GULF
   MAY CONTINUE TO SERVE AS A FOCUS FOR LOW-LVL LIFT AS IT DEVELOPS ENE
   TOWARD THE FL PANHANDLE/CSTL BEND.  

   ...ERN N CAROLINA/MID-ATLANTIC THIS AFTN/EVE...
   CONFLUENCE BAND/DIFFUSE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NWD FROM THE SRN NC CST
   INTO SE VA SHOULD CONTINUE SHIFTING GENERALLY ENE TODAY. THIS
   FEATURE...COLLOCATED AS IT IS WITH A LOW-LVL THETA-E MAX AND BENEATH
   PLUME OF FAIRLY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES...SHOULD REMAIN THE FOCUS
   FOR SCTD TSTM DEVELOPMENT BEFORE IT SHIFTS OFFSHORE LATER IN THE
   DAY. WHILE LOW-LVL SPEED/DIRECTIONAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN COMPARATIVELY
   MODEST...IT MAY BE SUFFICIENT GIVEN 40+ KT 850 SSWLY FLOW TO YIELD
   WEAK LOW-LVL ROTATION AND POSSIBLY A BRIEF SVR GUST IN ANY MORE
   PERSISTENT UPDRAFTS...MAINLY OVER CSTL NC.  

   ...ERN/CNTRL PA/N CNTRL MD/N VA...
   LOW-LVL ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE DEEPLY MIXED THIS AFTN AS
   MODERATE SWLY LOW-LVL FLOW DEVELOPS AHEAD OF APPROACHING COLD FRONT
   TO THE E OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIANS. MODEST MOISTURE /PW AROUND 0.75
   INCHES/ WILL LIMIT BUOYANCY. BUT HEATING SHOULD FOSTER A NARROW BAND
   OF SCTD STORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE BOUNDARY BY LATE IN THE DAY.
   VISUAL SATELLITE STARTING TO SHOW CLEARING IN CNTRL PA MAY BEGIN TO
   DESTABILIZE FROM WEST TO EAST.  GIVEN 35-50 KT 700-500
   UNIDIRECTIONAL SWLY FLOW AND COMPARATIVELY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE
   RATES...A SPOT OR TWO OF HAIL OR A STRONG GUST OR TWO MAY OCCUR.  

   ...CNTRL/ERN GULF CST THIS AFTN/EVE...
   AREA OF LOOSELY-ORGANIZED TSTMS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND EAST AND
   NORTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF OUT AHEAD OF A WELL
   DEFINED SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF AN UPPER LEVEL
   JET THAT EXTENDS ACROSS MEXICO INTO THE NW GULF. WHILE THE STRONGEST
   STORMS SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE IN REGION OF GREATEST PW /AOA 1.75
   INCHES/ AND LOW-LVL THETA-E...SETUP MAY ALLOW SOME STORMS TO MOVE
   NEWD INTO CNTRL MS/AL WIND PROFILES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUSTAINED
   STORMS AND...GIVEN MOISTURE AVAILABILITY...COULD YIELD ISOLD
   INSTANCES OF STRONG WINDS.

   ..15_OWS.. 03/26/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z