Mar 1, 2015 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Mar 1 16:29:40 UTC 2015 (20150301 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150301 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150301 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150301 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150301 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150301 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011629

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1029 AM CST SUN MAR 01 2015

   VALID 011630Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY TODAY OVER PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   SPLIT FLOW WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE LWR 48...DOWNSTREAM FROM
   AMPLIFIED E PACIFIC RIDGE. ELONGATED CA/FAR E PACIFIC LOW EXPECTED
   TO EDGE ONLY SLOWLY SSE UNTIL LATE IN THE PERIOD...WHEN SYSTEM
   SHOULD TURN AND ACCELERATE NE IN RESPONSE TO SHORTWAVE IMPULSE NOW
   OVER THE BC CST. E OF THE CA SYSTEM...ZONAL FLOW WILL PREVAIL FROM
   THE PLNS TO THE E CST. HEIGHTS SHOULD REBOUND OVER THE SRN PLNS
   LATER IN THE PERIOD AS NRN STREAM DISTURBANCE NOW OVER THE NRN PLNS
   CONTINUES E TO THE LWR GRT LKS.  

   WITH THE EXCEPTION OF CNTRL/SRN FL AND FAR SE TX/PARTS OF
   LA...SHALLOW ARCTIC OR MODIFIED POLAR AIR WILL LINGER OVER MOST
   AREAS E OF THE RCKYS. SLIGHTLY ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   REGIME WILL PERSIST OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY...BUT WILL BE
   INCREASINGLY UNDERCUT WITH TIME BY SEWD PROGRESSION OF SHALLOW
   COOL-AIR SURGE NOW EVOLVING OVER THE SRN PLNS. SIMILARLY IN CNTRL
   FL...OVERALL THERMAL ADVECTION WILL BE MINIMAL. WHILE DAYTIME MIXING
   MAY PERMIT A SLIGHT NWD DRIFT TO OLD W-E FRONT STALLED OVER THE
   CNTRL PART OF THE STATE...OVERALL CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN LARGELY
   UNCHANGED.  

   ...CNTRL FL TODAY...
   MODERATE DAYTIME HEATING OF MARITIME TROPICAL AIR WITH MOIST
   ADIABATIC TEMPERATURE PROFILES MAY YIELD SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/TSTMS
   OVER PARTS OF CNTRL AND PERHAPS SRN FL. WEAK CIN AND ABSENCE OF
   SIGNIFICANT THERMAL ADVECTION ACROSS REGION SUGGEST THAT ACTIVITY
   WILL REQUIRE SOME DEGREE OF CONVERGENCE TO BE REALIZED...WITH THE
   LATTER LIKELY BEING MAXIMIZED NEAR INTERSECTION OF OLD W-E FRONT AND
   SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARIES OVER THE W CNTRL PART OF THE STATE. WHILE PW
   WILL REMAIN FAIRLY HIGH...WEAK SHEAR WILL LIMIT POTENTIAL FOR ANY
   SUSTAINED WIND THREAT.  

   ...CNTRL/SRN CA TODAY/TNGT...
   THE AREA OF COLDEST AIR ALOFT/STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH UPR
   LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN OFF THE SRN CA CST TODAY AS UPR LOW PIVOTS
   SLOWLY SSE ACROSS REGION. BUT MODERATE TO STRONG SFC HEATING BENEATH
   ASSOCIATED TROUGH AXIS...AND TERRAIN CIRCULATIONS...SHOULD SUPPORT
   WDLY SCTD AFTN SHOWERS/STORMS OVER PARTS OF CNTRL/SRN CA. ALTHOUGH
   SMALL HAIL COULD ACCOMPANY SOME CELLS...BUOYANCY WILL BE WEAK
   /AROUND 250 J/KG MUCAPE/ AND DEEP SHEAR MODEST GIVEN PROXIMITY OF
   TROUGH. THUS...SUSTAINED SVR WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

   ...E TX/LWR MS VLY THROUGH EARLY MON...
   OTHER THAN A SLIGHT WEAKENING AND AFOREMENTIONED UNDERCUTTING...
   LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IS EXPECTED IN ELEVATED WAA/MOISTURE TRANSPORT
   REGIME NOW IN PROGRESS OVER E TX AND THE LWR MS VLY. COUPLED WITH
   ABSENCE OF MID- AND UPR-LVL FORCING FOR ASCENT...THE PROSPECTS FOR
   STRONG TO SVR CONVECTION APPEAR MINIMAL. NEVERTHELESS...SPORADIC
   CLUSTERS OF SLIGHTLY ELEVATED TSTMS LIKELY WILL PERSIST AND SPREAD
   SLIGHTLY NEWD WITH TIME.

   ..CORFIDI/MOSIER.. 03/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z