Dec 14, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Dec 14 16:26:11 UTC 2017 (20171214 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171214 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171214 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171214 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171214 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171214 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 141626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1026 AM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

   Valid 141630Z - 151200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorm areas are not forecast across the contiguous U.S.

   ...Synopsis and Discussion...
   A shortwave trough over the Southwest this morning will move
   southeastward towards the southern Plains and merge with a nearly
   closed upper low now over Baja California by late tonight. At the
   surface, a reinforcing cold front will likewise develop
   southeastward across TX today, and then off the TX Gulf Coast
   tonight. Post-frontal precipitation will likely occur across Deep
   South TX and adjacent coastal waters late this evening into early
   Friday morning as large-scale ascent associated with the upper
   trough overspreads the southern Plains. While meager low-level
   instability (MUCAPE around 100-200 J/kg) may be present across this
   region, forecast soundings show very poor mid-level lapse rates, and
   the likelihood for charge separation and resultant isolated
   lightning strikes over land appears too low to include a general
   thunderstorm area.

   ..Gleason.. 12/14/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z