Feb 23, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 23 16:29:27 UTC 2017 (20170223 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170223 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170223 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 7,826 175,639 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...
MARGINAL 64,100 3,022,090 Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...St. Joseph, MO...Waterloo, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170223 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170223 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 12,198 296,125 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...Junction City, KS...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170223 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 7,882 173,417 Salina, KS...Manhattan, KS...
5 % 64,090 3,031,975 Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...St. Joseph, MO...Waterloo, IA...
   SPC AC 231629

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1029 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 231630Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHERN KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS TO MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms may produce isolated severe hail across portions of
   northern Kansas and far southern Nebraska into Iowa and northern
   Missouri this evening and overnight.

   ...Central Plains and middle Missouri Valley/Midwest...
   Limited moisture observed across the central and southern Plains
   (per surface observed and 12Z upper-air data/soundings) casts some
   uncertainty regarding the timing/extent of convective development,
   while otherwise likely limiting the overall potential for severe
   storms later today. 

   This limited moisture and the existence of an appreciable elevated
   mixed layer is expected to preclude surface-based development
   through the afternoon, although an increase in elevated thunderstorm
   development may begin to occur around and after sunset (as early as
   23Z-00Z time frame). Aided by DPVA and increasing isentropic ascent,
   this development should mainly be focused across north-central
   Kansas just to the north of an eastward-developing surface low and
   north of a sharpening warm front. While moisture/overall buoyancy
   will be meager, very steep mid-level lapse rates and long
   straight-line hodographs within the cloud-bearing layer could yield
   some hail/locally gusty winds, with latest forecast soundings
   generally suggesting that storms should generally be rooted near or
   above 850 mb. Any such threat should be semi-focused across
   north-central/northeast Kansas this evening, but other
   strong/locally severe thunderstorms could occur across far southern
   Nebraska into Iowa and northern Missouri through the overnight.

   ..Guyer/Broyles.. 02/23/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z