Dec 19, 2014 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 19 16:13:31 UTC 2014 (20141219 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141219 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141219 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141219 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141219 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141219 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191613

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1013 AM CST FRI DEC 19 2014

   VALID 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE INTO THIS EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES.

   ...WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST...
   LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER E TX WILL RAPIDLY PROGRESS E/NE
   TOWARDS THE SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH EARLY SAT. WITH ONLY MODEST
   LOW-LEVEL WAA ATOP A NEAR-SURFACE STABLE LAYER AND THE REINFORCEMENT
   OF STATIC STABILITY WITH A BROAD STRATIFORM RAINFALL
   SHIELD...QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT ACROSS THE NW/N-CNTRL GULF SHOULD
   REMAIN OFFSHORE EXCEPT NEAR THE MOUTH OF THE MS RIVER AS A WEAK
   CYCLONE MOVES ALONG THE FRONTAL ZONE. 

   TSTM COVERAGE HAS ALREADY SUBSTANTIALLY DIMINISHED COMPARED TO
   EARLIER THIS MORNING. GIVEN THE MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AND DEARTH
   OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY/INSTABILITY SAMPLED IN 12Z LCH/SHV/LIX
   RAOBS...PROSPECTS FOR INLAND TSTM ACTIVITY APPEAR RATHER LIMITED.
   RENEWED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ALONG THE OFFSHORE
   FRONTAL ZONE...WITH THE NRN PERIPHERY OF SCANT BUOYANCY SUPPORTING A
   RISK FOR SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES OVER PARTS OF THE COASTAL PLAIN.

   ..GRAMS/CORFIDI/GLEASON.. 12/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z