Aug 25, 2016 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 25 16:22:35 UTC 2016 (20160825 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160825 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160825 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 116,788 14,423,778 Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Akron, OH...
MARGINAL 216,938 27,040,622 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160825 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 27,756 6,197,356 Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...Erie, PA...Parma, OH...Canton, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160825 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 114,224 13,915,073 Indianapolis, IN...Cleveland, OH...St. Louis, MO...Akron, OH...Amarillo, TX...
5 % 226,883 29,027,116 Detroit, MI...Columbus, OH...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160825 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 44,591 861,482 Amarillo, TX...Enid, OK...Stillwater, OK...Ponca City, OK...Derby, KS...
5 % 177,326 14,650,023 Indianapolis, IN...Oklahoma City, OK...Kansas City, MO...Tulsa, OK...Wichita, KS...
   SPC AC 251622

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1122 AM CDT THU AUG 25 2016

   VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL
   PARTS OF IL AND INDIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM
   EXTREME SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PARTS OF NRN OH INTO WRN PA...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO
   WRN/NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS IN A CORRIDOR FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS INTO THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS ACROSS THE
   LOWER MISSOURI AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS INTO THE LOWER GREAT
   LAKES REGION.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   THE LARGE SCALE UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO MINOR CHANGES DURING
   THE PERIOD AS AN UPPER TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE NRN/CENTRAL ROCKIES
   AND A DOWNSTREAM LOW AMPLITUDE SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS
   ONTARIO INTO QUEBEC.  TO THE SOUTH...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER
   THE SERN STATES AS A SERIES OF WEAK PERTURBATIONS ON THE SRN EDGE OF
   STRONGER SWLY WINDS ALOFT TRANSLATE NEWD/ENEWD FROM THE SRN HIGH
   PLAINS ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION.
    IN ADDITION...AN MCV EVIDENT IN RADAR IMAGERY OVER NWRN MO IS
   EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ENEWD INTO CENTRAL IL BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING.  

   THE LEADING EDGE OF CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM
   LOWER MI ACROSS NRN MO AND SWWD INTO WRN TX IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE
   DIFFERENTIAL HEATING THIS AFTERNOON...WITH STRONGER DIABATIC HEATING
   OCCURRING SOUTH/SOUTHEAST OF THE BOUNDARY.  ALTHOUGH LAPSE RATES
   HAVE GENERALLY BECOME LESS STEEP OWING TO AIR MASS MODIFICATION BY
   PREVIOUS CONVECTIVE STORMS...SURFACE DEW POINTS GENERALLY IN THE
   UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S IN THE WARM SECTOR REMAIN AND ARE EXPECTED TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO DIURNALLY INCREASED INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF
   1500-2500 J/KG THIS AFTERNOON.  

   THREE PRIMARY AREAS OF SEVERE STORM POTENTIAL ARE EXPECTED THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...ERN MO ACROSS CENTRAL PARTS OF IL AND INDIANA...
   THIS REGION IS AHEAD OF THE MCV CURRENTLY OVER NWRN MO.  A BAND OF
   ASCENT IMMEDIATELY IN ADVANCE OF THE MCV WILL MOVE EWD INTO AN
   INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AIR MASS THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY PROVIDE A
   FOCUS FOR RENEWED STORM DEVELOPMENT.  AS THE CAP WEAKENS...
   CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO FORM WITHIN A FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT /EFFECTIVE SHEAR AROUND 40 KT/ WHICH WILL ENHANCE STORM
   ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY.  STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AS THEY
   SPREAD EWD INTO CENTRAL IL LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY
   CONTINUE INTO CENTRAL INDIANA THIS EVENING BEFORE WEAKENING.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES FROM EXTREME SERN LOWER MI ACROSS PARTS OF NRN
   OH INTO WRN PA...
   CONSENSUS OF MODEL GUIDANCE IS THAT STORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON ACROSS SERN LOWER MI OR NRN OH AND SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
   WRN PA BY THIS EVENING.  THIS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS ASSOCIATED WITH
   SEVERAL VORTICITY MAXIMA AND A MID-LEVEL JET STREAK THAT ARE
   EXPECTED TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE LATER AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING. 

   CLOUDS ARE DIMINISHING ACROSS NRN OH INTO SWRN NY AND WRN PA AND
   THIS SHOULD SUPPORT FURTHER DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  STORMS
   ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK STARTING
   IN THE MID/LATE AFTERNOON WITH A THREAT FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS GIVEN THE STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW AND 35-45 KT VERTICAL SHEAR
   OVER THE AREA.

   ...TX PANHANDLE INTO WRN/NORTH CENTRAL OK AND EXTREME SRN KS...  
   THE SWD PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER WRN TX IS LIKELY TO END
   SHORTLY WITH MODELS INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF AN ELY/SELY COMPONENT
   OF LOW-LEVEL WINDS TO THE NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY BY LATER THIS
   AFTERNOON.  THINNING OF CLOUDS OVER PARTS OF THE TX PANHANDLE IS NOW
   EVIDENT IN VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THIS WILL SUPPORT GRADUAL
   DESTABILIZATION THIS AFTERNOON.  MODEL GUIDANCE INCLUDING CAM
   FORECASTS ARE CONSISTENT INITIATING STRONG CONVECTION OVER THE TX
   PANHANDLE WITH ACTIVITY DEVELOPING/SPREADING EWD/NEWD THROUGH THE
   EVENING HOURS.  MODERATE SWLY WINDS ALOFT WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ZONE OF
   30-40 KT VERTICAL SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF
   DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL.

   ..WEISS/PICCA.. 08/25/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z