Jan 19, 2017 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 19 16:30:59 UTC 2017 (20170119 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170119 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170119 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,153 2,664,527 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
MARGINAL 70,374 5,230,536 Birmingham, AL...Montgomery, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Tuscaloosa, AL...Hoover, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170119 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 16,420 2,605,840 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
2 % 64,116 4,507,803 Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Tuscaloosa, AL...Hoover, AL...Dothan, AL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170119 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 16,508 2,612,658 New Orleans, LA...Mobile, AL...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...
5 % 70,392 5,290,339 Birmingham, AL...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Tuscaloosa, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170119 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 191630

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1030 AM CST Thu Jan 19 2017

   Valid 191630Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   LA/MS/AL AND THE FL PANHANDLE...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE GULF
   COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of brief tornadoes and/or isolated damaging winds will be
   possible this afternoon and tonight across southern portions of
   Louisiana and Mississippi into Alabama and the Florida panhandle.

   ...Portions of LA/MS/AL and the FL Panhandle...
   While considerable cloud cover persists over much of
   central/northern portions of MS into AL, modest
   moisture/destabilization could allow for a low-end isolated damaging
   wind and/or brief tornado risk through the afternoon/early evening.

   Farther south, a somewhat more focused severe risk may exist along
   the immediate Gulf Coast this afternoon into this evening, including
   parts of southeast Louisiana to far southern portions of MS/AL and
   the FL panhandle. While existing cloud cover and ongoing inland
   convection cast some uncertainty regarding the effective northward
   extent of appreciable destabilization inland, considerable mass
   response should occur in tandem with an amplifying upstream trough
   over the southern Plains to ARKLATEX. Accordingly, as gradual/modest
   destabilization occurs especially immediately near the coast,
   increasing forcing for ascent and strengthening deep-layer/low-level
   winds could support semi-organized storms modes near the coast later
   this afternoon into tonight. At least a localized damaging wind and
   a brief tornado threat will exist in these areas.

   ..Guyer/Leitman.. 01/19/2017

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 2000Z