May 3, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 3 19:57:50 UTC 2016 (20160503 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160503 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160503 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 103,785 14,426,526 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
MARGINAL 79,457 17,486,345 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Hialeah, FL...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160503 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 29,738 3,776,334 Fayetteville, NC...Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...North Charleston, SC...Jacksonville, NC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160503 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 104,030 14,411,100 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
5 % 79,122 17,481,009 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Hialeah, FL...Chesapeake, VA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160503 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 103,883 14,415,166 Charlotte, NC...Raleigh, NC...Greensboro, NC...Durham, NC...Winston-Salem, NC...
5 % 79,090 17,400,278 Jacksonville, FL...Virginia Beach, VA...Miami, FL...Norfolk, VA...Hialeah, FL...
   SPC AC 031957

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0257 PM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016

   VALID 032000Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FOR
   SOUTHERN VA ACROSS THE CAROLINAS TO SOUTH GA/NORTH FL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CENTRAL VA SOUTHWARD TO
   THE EAST COAST OF FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHEASTERN U.S. TODAY.

   ...MID-ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES...
   NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE FOR THE SLIGHT AND
   MARGINAL RISK AREAS.  THE PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK WITH
   STORMS DEVELOPING AS EXPECTED WITHIN THE RESPECTIVE SEVERE RISK
   AREAS.

   ...TX PANHANDLE...
   A SMALL PORTION OF THE TX PANHANDLE HAS BEEN ADDED INTO THE EXISTING
   GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA BASED ON THE TRACK OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND TRENDS IN LIGHTNING DATA.

   ...LOWER MI...INDIANA...AND SOUTHERN IL...
   LATEST GUIDANCE AND SOUTHWARD TRACK/TIMING OF THE APPROACHING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM ONTARIO SUGGEST INSTABILITY WILL NOT BE
   SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF
   SOUTHERN INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL LOWER MI...MUCH OF INDIANA...AND
   SOUTHERN IL.  THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN REMOVED FROM THE GENERAL
   THUNDERSTORM AREA IN THIS REGION OF THE COUNTRY.

   ..PETERS.. 05/03/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1114 AM CDT TUE MAY 03 2016/

   ...PARTS OF VA/CAROLINAS TO GA/N FL THROUGH LATE EVENING...
   ONGOING CONVECTION IS NOW MOVING OFF THE NC COAST...AND VISIBLE
   SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALS CLOUD BREAKS IN THE WAKE OF THE CONVECTION
   FROM CENTRAL NC INTO CENTRAL VA.  BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN
   THE MID 60S FROM SE VA ACROSS NC...AND UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
   FARTHER SW INTO SC/GA.  THE LINGERING CONVECTION WILL CLEAR ERN NC
   EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING REMOVES
   CONVECTIVE INHIBITION AND BOOSTS AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES TO ROUGHLY
   500 J/KG IN CENTRAL VA AND 1000-1500 J/KG FROM SRN NC TO SC/GA.

   PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP THIS
   AFTERNOON NEAR AND E OF THE BLUE RIDGE AND SURFACE COLD FRONT AS THE
   LOW LEVELS WARM/DESTABILIZE.  ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL ALSO FORM
   FARTHER S ALONG A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH FROM S GA INTO SC.  MIDLEVEL
   FLOW WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATE
   ENEWD IN ADVANCE OF THE AMPLIFYING LARGER-SCALE TROUGH OVER THE
   OH/MS VALLEY REGION.  THE EXPECTED MODERATE BUOYANCY AND STRAIGHT
   HODOGRAPHS WITH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT
   ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS AND POTENTIALLY SPLITTING SUPERCELLS
   CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THROUGH LATE
   EVENING.  

   ...E CENTRAL/SE FL COAST THIS AFTERNOON...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS
   SURFACE TEMPERATURES WARM THROUGH THE 80S AND BOUNDARY LAYER
   DEWPOINTS ARE MAINTAINED AOA 70 F.  A WLY COMPONENT TO THE LOW-LEVEL
   FLOW WILL TEND TO FAVOR THE STRONGER STORMS ALONG THE E COAST SEA
   BREEZE...WHERE ISOLATED HAIL AND/OR DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE
   POSSIBLE.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z