Sep 15, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 15 19:53:47 UTC 2014 (20140915 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140915 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140915 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140915 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140915 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140915 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 151953

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2014

   VALID 152000Z - 161200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED NON-SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE
   MIDWEST TO PARTS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND GREAT BASIN...AS WELL AS THE
   SOUTHEAST AND GULF COAST.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   LITTLE APPRECIABLE CHANGE NEEDED THIS OUTLOOK WITH LARGELY MINOR
   ADJUSTMENTS TO GENERAL THUNDERSTORM LINES PER RECENT OBSERVATIONAL
   DATA. SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOR METEOROLOGICAL DETAILS.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/15/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1122 AM CDT MON SEP 15 2014/

   ...MID MS VALLEY TO SRN PLAINS THROUGH THIS EVENING...
   A PRONOUNCED MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL TRANSLATE QUICKLY ESEWD
   FROM MN/IA TO INDIANA/OH BY THIS EVENING...AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD ACROSS KS/MO/IL.  ELEVATED CONVECTION HAS LIKELY
   REACHED ITS PEAK THIS MORNING ACROSS NRN MO/WRN IL AS THE ZONE OF
   ASCENT PRECEDING THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PHASES WITH THE FEED OF
   BUOYANCY /ROOTED IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER/ FROM THE WSW.  A GRADUAL
   DECREASE IN STORM INTENSITY/COVERAGE IS EXPECTED AS THE AREA OF
   CONVECTION SPREADS EWD TOWARD IL/INDIANA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. 
   FARTHER S-SW...SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE
   POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM
   NRN OK INTO SRN MO.  HOWEVER...ONLY SHALLOW ASCENT IS EXPECTED ALONG
   THE FRONT AS THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH PASSES WELL TO THE NE ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY...AND STORM COVERAGE/PERSISTENCE ARE IN QUESTION. 

   ...SRN ROCKIES AREA THIS AFTERNOON...
   SCATTERED DIURNAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM THE FOUR CORNERS
   SWD TO THE MEXICO BORDER.  THE MORE HIGH-BASED CONVECTION WILL OCCUR
   ACROSS WRN CO/ERN UT WHERE INVERTED-V PROFILES WILL BE PRESENT TO
   THE N OF THE MORE SUBSTANTIAL DEEP-LAYER MOISTURE.  FARTHER S...12Z
   SOUNDINGS REVEAL THE POTENTIAL FOR WET THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
   NM/AZ...AND THERE WILL BE A FURTHER INCREASE IN MOISTURE ACROSS SRN
   AZ AS THE OUTER ENVELOPE OF WEAKENING HURRICANE ODILE APPROACHES
   FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA.

   ...NE CA/NW NV/ERN ORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT...
   A LEAD SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EJECTING NNEWD AND WILL MOVE OVER NRN CA
   AND ORE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY TONIGHT.  12Z SOUNDINGS SHOW
   MARGINAL MOISTURE INLAND WITH PW VALUES OF 0.5 TO 0.75 INCHES WITH
   THE POTENTIAL FOR INVERTED-V PROFILES AND WEAK BUOYANCY.  A FEW
   HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO DAYTIME
   HEATING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AS WELL AS ASCENT AND SOME
   MIDLEVEL MOISTENING WITH THE APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.  GIVEN
   THE RELATIVELY DRY PROFILES AND REASONABLY FAST STORM MOTIONS...THE
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND LITTLE WETTING RAINS.

   ...SE STATES TODAY...
   A REMNANT STALLED FRONT ACROSS S GA/SE AL...AS WELL AS LOCAL
   CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS AND SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS ACROSS N FL AND THE
   FL PANHANDLE...WILL AGAIN FOCUS THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS
   AFTERNOON IN A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE BUOYANCY AND PW
   VALUES OF 1.75 TO 2 INCHES.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z