Aug 27, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 27 21:30:14 UTC 2016 (20160827 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160827 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160827 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,619 2,042,542 Fargo, ND...Lorain, OH...Elyria, OH...Lakewood, OH...Mansfield, OH...
MARGINAL 99,954 8,086,887 Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...High Point, NC...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160827 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 2,359 29,905 No Major Population Center in Risk Area
2 % 6,368 309,909 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160827 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 5,919 1,667,357 Lorain, OH...Elyria, OH...Lakewood, OH...Mansfield, OH...Strongsville, OH...
5 % 109,784 8,434,793 Columbus, OH...Charlotte, NC...Cleveland, OH...Akron, OH...High Point, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160827 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 11,574 370,326 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
5 % 72,100 689,193 Garden City, KS...Aberdeen, SD...Watertown, SD...Brookings, SD...Fergus Falls, MN...
   SPC AC 272130

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AMEND 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0430 PM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016

   VALID 272115Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF CNTRL AND NRN
   OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR ERN ND AND NWRN MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK IN
   OHIO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE ERN DAKOTAS AND
   ADJACENT PORTIONS OF MN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PORTIONS OF CNTRL AND
   W-CNTRL NC...

   AMENDED FOR A SLIGHT RISK IN EASTERN ND AND NORTHWESTERN MN

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF WIND DAMAGE WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE ISOLATED
   SEVERE STORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN
   DAKOTAS/WESTERN MINNESOTA AND THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ADDED A SLIGHT-RISK FOR BOTH A TORNADO AND HAIL THREAT ACROSS THE
   RED RIVER VALLEY OF ND/MN.  

   INCREASED WIND PROBABILITIES ACROSS CNTRL AND NRN OHIO DOWNSTREAM OF
   2 WIND PRODUCING LINE SEGMENTS.  THE AIRMASS OVER CNTRL AND NRN OHIO
   HAS WARMED INTO THE UPPER 80S WITH LOWER 70S DEWPOINTS AND SHOULD BE
   SUPPORTIVE OF ISOLATED SEVERE GUSTS FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.  PLEASE
   REFERENCE MCD 1602 FOR SHORT-TERM TRENDS.

   ALSO ADDED 5-PERCENT WIND PROBABILITIES FOR CNTRL AND W-CNTRL NC
   ASSOCIATED WITH THE MORE INTENSE WATER-LADEN DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF A
   LOCALIZED WIND-DAMAGE RISK GIVEN THE STEEP 0-3 KM LAPSE RATES/HIGH
   PW ENVIRONMENT.  PLEASE REFERENCE MCD 1601.

   ..SMITH.. 08/27/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1130 AM CDT SAT AUG 27 2016/

   ...INDIANA/LOWER MI/OH/IL...
   MULTIPLE ONGOING QUASI-LINEAR CLUSTERS...EXTENDING FROM
   SOUTH-CENTRAL MI SOUTHWARD INTO EAST-CENTRAL/SOUTHEAST INDIANA AT
   MIDDAY...WILL CONTINUE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TODAY WITH SOME
   DIURNAL-RELATED INTENSIFICATION PROBABLE. A VERY MOIST AIR MASS
   RESIDES NEAR/SOUTH OF A WARM FRONT...AND STORM PERSISTENCE WILL BE
   INFLUENCED BY MULTIPLE NORTHEASTWARD-MOVING WEAK/CONVECTIVELY
   RELATED MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES. AS ADDITIONAL DESTABILIZATION/CINH
   EROSION OCCUR THIS AFTERNOON IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATELY
   STRONG/NEARLY UNIDIRECTIONAL SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS
   FROM EXTREME EASTERN INDIANA INTO SOUTHEAST LOWER MI AND
   WESTERN/NORTHERN OH. 

   FARTHER WEST...THERE ALSO MAY BE SOME POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
   REDEVELOPMENT /INCLUDING A CONDITIONAL LOW-END SEVERE RISK/ LATE
   THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR EASTERN IA INTO NORTHERN
   IL. THAT SAID...MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK AND CONVERGENCE
   WILL ALSO TEND TO BE WEAK WITH A TENDENCY FOR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT
   RISES.

   ...EASTERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST...
   AN UPPER TROUGH CENTERED OVER THE DAKOTAS THIS MORNING WILL CONTINUE
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD NORTHERN MN/LAKE SUPERIOR VICINITY THROUGH
   TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH IS ACCOMPANIED BY VERY COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES BY LATE AUGUST STANDARDS /-18C AT 500 MB PER 12Z
   BISMARCK SOUNDING/. AS CLEARING OCCURS IN THE WAKE OF SOME EARLY-DAY
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS FAR EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN...THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/FAR WESTERN MN SHOULD BECOME
   MODERATELY UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON...AS COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES/STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL BE COMPENSATORY FACTORS FOR A
   BOUNDARY LAYER THAT WILL NOT BE OVERLY MOIST /SOME LOWER 60S F
   SURFACE DEWPOINTS/. 

   WHILE THE LARGER-SCALE FORCING RELATED TO THE UPPER TROUGH WILL
   STEADILY SHIFT EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE MAIN CORRIDOR OF
   DESTABILIZATION AROUND PEAK HEATING...THERE IS AT LEAST A
   CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE-CALIBER DEVELOPMENT INCLUDING A
   SUPERCELL OR TWO LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AMID WEAK
   INHIBITION AND MODEST LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE/CONFLUENCE. WHERE
   THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP/REMAIN SUSTAINED LATER TODAY...ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THIS CURRENTLY APPEARS MOST PROBABLE ACROSS
   FAR EASTERN ND INTO NEARBY WESTERN MN.

   FARTHER SOUTH INCLUDING EASTERN SD/SOUTHWEST MN...THERE ARE STILL
   CONCERNS THAT LITTLE TO NO CONVECTION MAY OCCUR AS MID-LEVEL
   SUBSIDENCE OVERSPREADS THE WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON. 

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WHILE FORCING/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL NOT BE OVERLY STRONG ACROSS THE
   REGION...SUFFICIENTLY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND BUOYANCY MAY YIELD SOME
   RISK FOR MARGINAL/ISOLATED SEVERE WIND AND/OR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL
   LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z