Jun 29, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 29 19:51:02 UTC 2015 (20150629 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150629 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150629 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 82,581 8,457,909 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
MARGINAL 606,345 34,150,547 Phoenix, AZ...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150629 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,376 2,844,152 Lexington-Fayette, KY...Huntington, WV...Richmond, KY...Frankfort, KY...Nicholasville, KY...
2 % 31,871 7,044,810 Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Dayton, OH...Springfield, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150629 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 78,944 8,121,707 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
5 % 611,246 34,551,513 Phoenix, AZ...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150629 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 77,313 7,894,323 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
5 % 525,042 27,781,196 Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Nashville, TN...Albuquerque, NM...
   SPC AC 291951

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0251 PM CDT MON JUN 29 2015

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE A PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SRN ROCKIES INTO THE
   SRN PLAINS...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE NRN ROCKIES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL PERSIST THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   OVER PARTS OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY REGIONS. ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS TO ARIZONA...AND OVER THE
   NORTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   PRIMARY CHANGE FOR THIS UPDATE HAS BEEN TO EXTEND THE MARGINAL AREA
   TO INCLUDE SRN OK AND NRN TX INTO CNTRL AND SRN ARK WHERE MULTICELL
   STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND POSE A RISK FOR A FEW DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. REF SWOMCD 1230 FOR MORE
   DETAILED INFORMATION. 

   OTHERWISE...PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AREAS WILL REMAIN OVER THE MIDDLE
   OH VALLEY AND THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGIONS THROUGH EARLY EVENING
   WHERE ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE OUTLOOK HAVE BEEN MADE FOR THIS
   UPDATE.

   STORMS DEVELOPING OVER THE NRN ROCKIES WILL ALSO POSE A MARGINAL
   SEVERE RISK THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. REF SWOMCD 1231 FOR
   MORE INFORMATION.

   ..DIAL.. 06/29/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT MON JUN 29 2015/

   ...MN/WI/IA...
   SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER MB/WESTERN ONT TRACKING
   SOUTHWARD TOWARD MN.  SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ONGOING THIS
   MORNING OVER THE ARROWHEAD OF MN WHERE SOME HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
   HAVE LIKELY OCCURRED.  THIS ACTIVITY WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD AND
   INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY MID AFTERNOON...AS DAYTIME HEATING
   DESTABILIZES THE AIR MASS AND LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO ERODE.  MOST
   MORNING MODEL SOLUTIONS SHOW SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
   CENTRAL/EASTERN MN AND WESTERN WI.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL OR ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS
   CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.  STORMS MAY MOVE INTO
   NORTHERN IA AFTER DARK BEFORE DIMINISHING.

   ...OH VALLEY...
   ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS NOTED OVER IND/OH/KY THIS
   MORNING...ROTATING EASTWARD INTO THE UPPER OH VALLEY.  WIDESPREAD
   CLOUD COVER NEAR AND NORTH OF THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL GREATLY LIMIT
   DESTABILIZATION OVER THIS REGION TODAY.  HOWEVER...THERE APPEARS TO
   BE A ZONE WHERE HEATING SHOULD COMMENCE BY EARLY AFTERNOON FROM
   PARTS OF KY/WV NORTHWARD INTO FAR SOUTHERN OH.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS
   SHOW SUBSTANTIAL VEERING LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS AND AT LEAST MARGINAL
   INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION.  PRESENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
   COMBINATION OF LARGE SCALE FORCING AND DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION WILL
   LEAD TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL KY INTO SOUTHERN
   OH...TRACKING INTO WESTERN WV THIS EVENING.  THE STRONGEST STORMS
   MAY POSE A RISK OF HAIL...GUSTY WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO
   OR TWO.

   ...CENTRAL SOUTHERN ROCKIES...
   WATER VAPOR IMAGERY HINTS AT A WEAK FEATURE TRACKING SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS CO.  THIS MAY TEND TO INCREASE THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF
   THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTHERN/CENTRAL NM.
    STRONG NORTHERLY UPPER LEVEL WINDS AND A DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL PROMOTE A FEW STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY WINDS.

   ...PACIFIC NORTHWEST...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WESTERN ORE WILL TRACK NORTHEASTWARD AND
   HELP TO INITIATE SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON OVER PARTS
   OF WA/ORE INTO ID AND WESTERN MT.  STRENGTHENING WINDS ALOFT AND
   SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY ATOP INVERTED-V PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW
   STRONG STORMS CAPABLE OF GUSTY/DAMAGING WINDS.  PRESENT INDICATIONS
   ARE THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL REMAIN RATHER DISORGANIZED.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z