Oct 30, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 30 19:53:29 UTC 2014 (20141030 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141030 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141030 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 37,848 3,676,569 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141030 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141030 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141030 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 37,956 3,663,775 Austin, TX...Killeen, TX...Round Rock, TX...Temple, TX...Cedar Park, TX...
   SPC AC 301953

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0253 PM CDT THU OCT 30 2014

   VALID 302000Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY INTO TONIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF TEXAS...FLORIDA...AND THE OZARKS TO MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI RIVER VALLEY. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
   PARTS OF CENTRAL TEXAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...TX...
   FORECAST REASONING FOR THE MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS CONSISTENT
   WITH THE 1630Z OUTLOOK...AND NO CHANGES ARE NEEDED FOR THE 20Z
   OUTLOOK.  AS EXPECTED...THE WARM SECTOR IS DESTABILIZING AND
   SURFACE-BASED INHIBITION IS WEAKENING PER OBJECTIVE ANALYSES...SUCH
   THAT REGIONAL RADAR IMAGERY INDICATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT ALONG
   THE SOUTHWARD MOVING COLD FRONT...NOW ADVANCING THROUGH THE RED
   RIVER VALLEY.  RADAR IMAGERY ALSO SHOWED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IN
   VICINITY OF WACO TX WITH THIS ACTIVITY LOCATED ALONG A NNW-SSE
   ORIENTED WARM FRONT EXTENDING FROM WRN PORTIONS OF THE DALLAS-FORT
   WORTH METROPLEX TO NEAR AUSTIN TX.

   ...MO...
   THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE HAS REMOVED PARTS OF NRN AND CENTRAL MO FROM
   THE GENERAL TSTM OUTLOOK AS UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ATTENDANT TO THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SUPPORTING ONGOING ISOLATED TSTM DEVELOPMENT FROM
   CENTRAL MO TO NRN AR HAS EXITED LOCATIONS FARTHER NORTH ACROSS MO.

   ...ERN FL PANHANDLE...
   THE APPARENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSE /EMBEDDED WITHIN SWLY FLOW ALOFT/ THAT
   AIDED IN TSTM DEVELOPMENT EARLIER TODAY ACROSS THE EASTERN FL
   PANHANDLE WAS NOW LOCATED ALONG THE SRN GA/FL BORDER.  SUBSIDENCE IN
   THE WAKE OF THIS FEATURE AND DRIER AIR SPREADING EASTWARD ACROSS THE
   PANHANDLE PER WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOULD CONTINUE TO INHIBIT NEW
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  FOR THESE REASONS...THE GENERAL TSTM AREA
   HAS BEEN TRIMMED EASTWARD.

   ..PETERS.. 10/30/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1120 AM CDT THU OCT 30 2014/

   ...TX...
   LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM WEST TX
   INTO WESTERN OK.  THIS FRONT WILL SAG SOUTHWARD TODAY INTO NORTH TX
   BY LATE AFTERNOON.  CONTINUED DAYTIME HEATING AND SLOW MOISTURE
   INFLUX INTO THE REGION WILL YIELD AFTERNOON MLCAPE VALUES OF AROUND
   1000 J/KG AND ONLY A WEAK CAP.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT OVER NORTH TX
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
   ACROSS THE MARGINAL RISK AREA.  EFFECTIVE SHEAR VALUES OF 35-40
   KNOTS AND STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL POSE SOME RISK OF HAIL IN
   THE STRONGEST CELLS.  ACTIVITY MAY BUILD SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD
   THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY OVERNIGHT.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z