May 23, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 23 19:56:13 UTC 2016 (20160523 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160523 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160523 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 56,772 613,802 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...Woodward, OK...
SLIGHT 69,449 2,502,641 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
MARGINAL 247,346 17,767,412 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160523 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 56,892 593,939 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...Woodward, OK...
2 % 51,185 1,227,825 Lubbock, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...Odessa, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160523 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 126,959 3,096,709 Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...
5 % 247,867 17,622,610 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160523 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 69,055 954,588 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...
30 % 55,795 584,958 Abilene, TX...San Angelo, TX...Big Spring, TX...Altus, OK...Woodward, OK...
15 % 69,952 2,498,357 Oklahoma City, OK...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Midland, TX...Lawton, OK...
5 % 248,338 17,664,251 Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...Arlington, TX...
   SPC AC 231956

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0256 PM CDT MON MAY 23 2016

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER MUCH OF WRN TX INTO WRN OK
   AND SWRN KS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL KS SWD TO THE RIO
   GRANDE RIVER...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY SWD
   ACROSS THE CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT ACROSS
   MUCH OF WEST TEXAS INTO WESTERN OKLAHOMA. VERY LARGE HAIL...A FEW
   TORNADOES...AND ISOLATED DAMAGING GUSTS WILL ALL BE POSSIBLE.

   LITTLE CHANGE WAS MADE TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ...MUCH OF W TX...
   SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND EXTREME INSTABILITY
   OVER THE REGION E OF A DRYLINE WITH CU FIELDS SLOWLY INCREASING WITH
   HEATING. THE MOST LIKELY AREA OF GIANT HAIL APPEARS TO BE OVER SWRN
   TX WHERE STORMS WERE BEGINNING TO FORM OVER THE DAVIS MTNS.
   HERE...DOWNSTREAM DEWPOINTS ARE NEAR 70 F AND HODOGRAPHS ARE QUITE
   ELONGATED IN THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS.

   OTHER POTENTIAL AREAS OF DEVELOPMENT CONTINUE TO BE OVER THE S
   PLAINS NWD INTO THE ERN TX PANHANDLE. HERE...CONVERGENCE IS WEAK BUT
   CONTINUED HEATING SHOULD LEAD TO ISOLATED SEVERE CELLS WITH VERY
   LARGE HAIL AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO AS STORMS INTERACT WITH
   WASHED-OUT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY EVIDENT ON VIS IMAGERY. FOR MORE
   INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSIONS 693 AND 695.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1129 AM CDT MON MAY 23 2016/

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   WATER VAPOR LOOP SHOWS TWO SHORTWAVE TROUGHS THAT WILL LIKELY IMPACT
   THE RISK OF SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TODAY.  ONE IS
   OVER NORTHERN AZ...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK INTO CO/WRN KS BY THIS
   EVENING.  A SECOND TROUGH IS NOTED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/SOUTHERN
   AZ/NM AND WILL MOVE INTO WEST TX AFTER SUNSET.  BOTH FEATURES WILL
   LIKELY HELP TO INITIATE SEVERE STORMS ALONG THE DRYLINE...BUT THE
   TIMING OF THESE FEATURES IS A LITTLE LATE TO MAXIMIZE THE SEVERE
   THREAT AROUND MAX HEATING.  THE RESULT IS THE RISK OF ISOLATED
   INTENSE SUPERCELLS FROM SOUTH-CENTRAL TX INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL KS...BUT
   CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY REGARDING WHERE THE LARGER AND MORE INTENSE
   CLUSTERS WILL DEVELOP.

   A LONG-LIVED MCS OVER SOUTHERN OK IS PROCEEDING EASTWARD...ALLOWING
   THE RAPID RETURN OF RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN
   OK AND SOUTH-CENTRAL KS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST VERY STEEP MID
   LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND STRONG INSTABILITY...FAVORABLE FOR A RISK OF
   VERY LARGE HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS ACROSS THE ENHANCED RISK AREA.
    DEEP LAYER AND LOW LEVEL FLOW IS ALSO SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL
   STRUCTURES INCLUDING A TORNADO OR TWO...AND THE POSSIBILITY OF
   EVENTUAL BOWING STRUCTURES PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS...
   A FEW HIGH-BASED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY FORM THIS AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING OVER EASTERN CO...TRACKING INTO WESTERN KS.  LARGE HAIL
   APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS.

   SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS ARE FORECAST ALONG AN AXIS FROM EASTERN
   KS/NEB INTO IA/MN/WI.  WHILE A FEW OF THESE STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL
   AND GUSTY WINDS...IT APPEARS THAT LIMITED CAPE VALUES AND RELATIVELY
   WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR WILL KEEP THE SEVERE THREAT MARGINAL.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z