Jan 16, 2018 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jan 16 19:22:17 UTC 2018 (20180116 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20180116 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180116 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20180116 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20180116 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20180116 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 161922

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 PM CST Tue Jan 16 2018

   Valid 162000Z - 171200Z

   ...NO THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are not forecast over the contiguous U.S. today or
   tonight.

   No change is needed to the previous forecast.

   ..Smith.. 01/16/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0940 AM CST Tue Jan 16 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A stable pattern will persist across most of the CONUS with an
   amplified upper trough over the East and a large area of high
   pressure centered over the Plains. This will result in increasing
   offshore flow across the Gulf Coast and Southeast.

   To the west, a progressive shortwave trough will continue to move
   northeast across WA, with a large surface low well to the northwest.
   The cool temperatures aloft associated with this feature combined
   with low-level warm advection is currently resulting in a few
   showers with sporadic lightning across coastal WA. However, this
   wave will rapidly leave the region, with no further thunderstorms
   expected.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z