Jul 29, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Jul 29 19:59:02 UTC 2016 (20160729 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160729 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160729 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 29,031 4,034,800 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
MARGINAL 442,126 59,101,342 Chicago, IL...Phoenix, AZ...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160729 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 72,212 20,487,460 Chicago, IL...Columbus, OH...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Toledo, OH...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160729 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 29,071 4,004,606 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 440,488 59,082,350 Chicago, IL...Phoenix, AZ...Dallas, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160729 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 28,696 3,969,096 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Fort Collins, CO...
5 % 78,701 818,917 Pueblo, CO...Boulder, CO...Rapid City, SD...Casper, WY...Golden, CO...
   SPC AC 291959

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0259 PM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST WY...ADJACENT
   PORTION OF THE NEBRASKA PANHANDLE...AND SOUTH INTO PORTIONS OF
   EASTERN CO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK AREA
   IN THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER
   VALLEY...THE OZARK PLATEAU...MIDDLE MS AND LOWER OH VALLEYS INTO THE
   SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST AND
   CENTRAL AZ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS SOUTHEAST WYOMING INTO PORTIONS OF EASTERN COLORADO. 
   OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG STORMS MAY IMPACT SURROUNDING
   PORTIONS OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS RED RIVER
   VALLEY...THE OZARK PLATEAU...THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND LOWER OHIO
   VALLEYS...THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES REGION...AS WELL AS PARTS OF
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST ARIZONA.

   ...NORTHERN IL...
   THE PRESENCE OF SEVERAL AREAS OF LOW PRESSURE ALONG A WIND SHIFT
   EXTENDING FROM NORTHERN IL TO NORTHERN OH WILL SUPPORT THE POTENTIAL
   FOR FUNNELS AND/OR A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO AS DISCUSSED EARLIER WITH
   THE 1630Z DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK AND MCD 1435.  RADAR TRENDS
   SHOWED STORMS HAVE DEVELOPED FARTHER WEST THROUGH NORTHERN IL...AND
   GIVEN THE FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR FUNNEL DEVELOPMENT...THE MARGINAL
   RISK AREA HAS BEEN EXPANDED WESTWARD TO INCLUDE THE REST OF NORTHERN
   IL.

   ...SOUTHEAST WY TO EASTERN CO...
   BASED ON FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE AND THE FURTHER
   DEVELOPMENT OF STORMS ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY...PART OF THE NEB
   PANHANDLE INTO EASTERN CO...THE SLIGHT RISK AND SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   HAVE BEEN EXPANDED NORTH AND SOUTH WITH THIS OUTLOOK ISSUANCE.

   ...SOUTHWEST AZ/SOUTHERN CA...
   GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF CU AND SOME STORMS DEVELOPING IN THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN OF AZ TO SOUTHWEST NM...MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS SOUTHERN
   AZ...AND EASTERLY 500-MB WINDS OF 20-25 KT PER RAP BASED OBJECTIVE
   ANALYSIS...THE MARGINAL RISK AREA REMAINS VALID WITH THIS OUTLOOK
   ISSUANCE.  MODELS SUGGEST STORMS THAT ARE ABLE TO MOVE INTO THE
   LOWER DESERTS COULD PROGRESS WESTWARD THROUGH LATE THIS EVENING INTO
   SOUTHWEST AZ AND PERHAPS SOUTHEAST CA.  THUS...THESE AREAS HAVE BEEN
   INCLUDED IN THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM FORECAST AREA.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL MN TO NORTHWEST IA...
   GIVEN THE APPARENT PRESENCE OF SUBSIDENCE IN THE WAKE OF MIDLEVEL
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING EAST FROM EASTERN IA AND A MORE STABLE
   ENVIRONMENT...TSTM DEVELOPMENT IS NOT EXPECTED THIS FORECAST PERIOD
   INTO SOUTH-CENTRAL MN AND NORTHWEST IA.  THUS...THIS OUTLOOK
   ISSUANCE HAS REMOVED THESE AREAS FROM THE GENERAL THUNDERSTORM AREA.

   ..PETERS.. 07/29/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT FRI JUL 29 2016/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AT LEAST SOME WEAKENING OF A PROMINENT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTERED
   OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN APPEARS POSSIBLE TODAY...AS A
   SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE IMPULSE WITHIN THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
   CONTINUES PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST AND
   CANADIAN ROCKIES.  DOWNSTREAM FLOW REMAINS SPLIT...WITH A LINGERING
   BELT OF WEAK TO MODEST CYCLONIC FLOW ON THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL
   RIDGING...ACROSS THE NORTHERN U.S. ROCKIES THROUGH THE NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC COAST.  WITHIN THIS REGIME...ONE SHORT WAVE IMPULSE IS IN
   THE PROCESS OF SHIFTING EAST NORTHEAST OF NORTHERN MID
   ATLANTIC/SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COASTAL AREAS.  A BROADER
   PERTURBATION...WITH AT LEAST A COUPLE OF EMBEDDED SMALLER-SCALE
   IMPULSES IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO TURN EAST OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS...THROUGH PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND OHIO VALLEYS
   TODAY.  AT THE SAME TIME...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING
   UPSTREAM WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY DIG ACROSS AND SOUTHEAST OF
   THE WYOMING ROCKIES.

   ...HIGH PLAINS INTO APPALACHIANS...
   PROBABILITIES FOR SEVERE STORMS APPEAR LARGELY FOCUSED WITHIN A
   LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...AND
   ALONG AN ASSORTMENT OF SURFACE BOUNDARIES /MAINLY A WEAK SURFACE
   FRONT AND CONVECTIVELY GENERATED COLD POOLS/...FROM PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS/RED RIVER VALLEY REGION INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT
   LAKES REGION.  A CORRIDOR OF STRONGER SURFACE HEATING ALONG AND TO
   THE SOUTHEAST OF THIS COMPOSITE BOUNDARY IS EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE
   TO MODERATE CAPE /ON THE ORDER OF 1500-3000 J PER KG/ BY LATE
   AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL BE SUPPORTED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   ASSOCIATED WITH RESIDUAL ELEVATED MIXED LAYER AIR...MOSTLY ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...WITH SEASONABLY HIGH
   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE CONTENT A MORE PROMINENT CONTRIBUTOR TO THE
   EAST.

   ASIDE FROM POTENTIAL FOR STRONG SHEAR WHERE CYCLONIC MID-LEVEL FLOW
   WILL HAVE A NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   /AND VEERING OF WINDS WITH HEIGHT MOST PRONOUNCED/...20-30+ KT
   WESTERLY FLOW /AT AROUND 500 MB AND ABOVE/ MAY ONLY CONTRIBUTE TO
   WEAK TO MODEST SHEAR ACROSS MUCH OF THE AXIS OF STRONGER
   DESTABILIZATION.  HOWEVER...IT MAY STILL BE ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR SOME
   ENHANCEMENT OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED DURING
   THE PEAK AFTERNOON INSTABILITY.  EAST OF THE HIGH PLAINS...LOCALIZED
   STRONG SURFACE GUSTS SEEM THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.  HOWEVER...A
   BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO OR TWO MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION NEAR A WEAK
   SURFACE LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CHICAGO AREA...AND ALONG THE
   WEAK SURFACE BOUNDARY EXTENDING TO ITS EAST...ACROSS PARTS OF
   NORTHERN INDIANA AND OHIO.

   ...ARIZONA...
   AIDED BY AN INCREASE IN MID-LEVEL MOISTURE...AN INCREASE IN
   THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE MOGOLLON RIM AND
   MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHEASTERN ARIZONA.  THIS MAY OCCUR LARGELY IN
   RESPONSE TO DIURNAL HEATING AND OROGRAPHIC FORCING.  WIND PROFILES
   TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER APPEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   EVENTUAL WESTWARD/SOUTHWESTWARD PROPAGATION OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN
   TOWARD THE LOWER DESERTS.  HOW QUICKLY AND HOW FAR REMAIN IN SOME
   QUESTION DUE TO LINGERING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE STRENGTH OF THE
   EASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW.  HOWEVER...A HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL CERTAINLY BE SUPPORTIVE OF STRONG DOWNBURSTS AND SURFACE
   GUSTS.  AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CONVECTION MAY IMPACT PORTIONS OF
   THE TUCSON AND PHOENIX METRO AREAS BY MID/LATE EVENING.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z