Oct 23, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 23 18:48:47 UTC 2014 (20141023 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20141023 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141023 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20141023 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20141023 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20141023 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 231848

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0148 PM CDT THU OCT 23 2014

   VALID 232000Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE
   PACIFIC NORTHWEST...FAR SOUTH FLORIDA...AND PARTS OF COASTAL NEW
   ENGLAND.  SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

   NO CHANGES WERE REQUIRED TO THE PREVIOUS OUTLOOK.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/23/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1125 AM CDT THU OCT 23 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE POSITIONED OFF THE SRN COAST OF NEW
   ENGLAND WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NEWD TODAY. DECAYING CONVECTION
   ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED SHORTWAVE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL
   CONUS WILL ENCOUNTER A PROGRESSIVELY MORE STABLE AIR MASS TO THE E.
   FARTHER W...A BELT OF STRONG W-SWLY MID/UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   POSITIONED OVER THE PAC NW...WITH A SERIES OF WEAK VORT MAXIMA
   QUICKLY PROGRESSING EWD FROM THE PACIFIC TOWARDS THE NRN ROCKIES.  

   ...PACIFIC NW INTO THE NRN INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST...
   SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED CONVECTION/LIGHTNING STRIKES WILL BE POSSIBLE
   PRIMARILY THROUGH LATE TONIGHT AS A WEAK UPPER IMPULSE TRAVERSES
   NEWD. ANEMIC INSTABILITY AND NEBULOUS FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED
   TO RESULT IN ONLY VERY ISOLATED TSTM COVERAGE.

   ...COASTAL NEW ENGLAND...
   SPORADIC LIGHTNING STRIKES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED NEAR COASTAL MAINE
   THIS MORNING WITHIN THE NRN SEMI-CIRCLE OF AN OFFSHORE CYCLONE. THIS
   THREAT WILL LIKELY PERSIST THROUGH THIS EVENING...BUT INCREASINGLY
   BECOME FOCUSED OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT AS THE CYCLONE TRACKS NEWD. 

   ...S FL...
   ISOLATED TSTMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH EARLY FRI MORNING NEAR A
   STALLED OFFSHORE FRONT.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z