Jan 25, 2015 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jan 25 19:37:29 UTC 2015 (20150125 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20150125 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150125 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20150125 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20150125 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20150125 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 251937

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0137 PM CST SUN JAN 25 2015

   VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER PARTS THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST THE REMAINDER OF THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS
   EVENING.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   ONGOING FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK -- WITH A COUPLE OF LIGHTNING
   STRIKES OBSERVED THUS FAR FROM ERN AR INTO NRN MS -- IN CLOSE
   PROXIMITY TO THE MAIN CENTER OF CIRCULATION ALOFT NOW MOVING ESEWD
   ACROSS NERN AR.  EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED/ADDITIONAL STRIKES TO OCCUR
   AS LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION -- AIDED BY DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH COLD
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES -- CONTINUES SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE TN
   VALLEY AREA THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 01/25/2015

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1019 AM CST SUN JAN 25 2015/

   ...SYNOPTIC SETUP...
   WRN RIDGE-ERN TROUGH PATTERN WILL FURTHER AMPLIFY THIS PERIOD AS NRN
   AR UPR VORT CONTINUES E INTO THE MID-TN VLY BY EVE...AND UPSTREAM
   JET STREAK NOW OVER OK DIGS SE INTO E TX/LA. THE THUS-RECONFIGURED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD THEN CONTINUE ESE INTO WRN GA BY 12Z
   MON...ASSUMING A NEARLY-NEUTRAL TILT.

   AT LWR LVLS...BROAD SFC CIRCULATION NOW CENTERED NEAR ST LOUIS
   SHOULD MOVE/DEVELOP ESE AND GRADUALLY TIGHTEN WITH TIME...WITH A
   TENDENCY FOR INCREASED TROUGHING/PRESSURE FALLS TO EXTEND SSW FROM
   THE CENTER LATER TODAY. THE LOW SHOULD REACH THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   EARLY MON AS A SECONDARY CENTER OF CIRCULATION BEGINS TO EVOLVE
   ALONG THE NC CST.
     
   ...TN VLY/SOUTHEAST LATER TODAY INTO TNGT...
   A BAND OR TWO OF CONVECTION...POSSIBLY INCLUDING WDLY SCTD /
   EPISODIC TSTMS...SHOULD DEVELOP LATER TODAY OVER PARTS OF THE LWR MS
   AND TN VLYS...IN ZONE OF STRONGEST DCVA AHEAD OF LEAD UPR VORT. THE
   BANDS SHOULD EVOLVE THIS AFTN ALONG PRE-FRONTAL LOW-LVL CONVERGENCE
   AXIS NOW OVER THE MS DELTA REGION OF NE AR-NW MS...AND/OR ALONG
   STRENGTHENING COLD FRONT JUST TO ITS WEST...WITH THE ACTIVITY MOVING
   E OR ESE WITH THESE FEATURES INTO EARLY TNGT.

   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL REMAIN SCANT. BUT SIMULTANEOUS ARRIVAL
   OF STRONG MID-LVL FORCING AND COLD ADVECTION /500 MB TEMPS FALLING
   TO AOB MINUS 20 C/ WITH QUASI-LINEAR LOW-LVL UPLIFT SUGGESTS
   POTENTIAL FOR LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION THAT COULD SUFFICIENTLY DEEPEN
   TO YIELD SPORADIC THUNDER. STRENGTH AND UNIDIRECTIONAL NATURE OF LOW
   TO MID-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW /WITH 500 MB SPEEDS APPROACHING 100 KTS IN
   MS/...FURTHER SUGGESTS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR AN INSTANCE OR TWO OF
   LOCALLY DMGG WIND. VERY LIMITED MOISTURE AND COMPARATIVELY COOL
   ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS SHOULD...HOWEVER...LIMIT DURATION/EXTENT OF
   ANY SVR THREAT.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z