Nov 17, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Nov 17 19:36:37 UTC 2017 (20171117 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20171117 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20171117 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20171117 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20171117 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20171117 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 171936

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0136 PM CST Fri Nov 17 2017

   Valid 172000Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms are expected tonight across much of the Midwest from
   Missouri to Ohio, with more isolated afternoon and evening
   thunderstorms possible across parts of the central Rockies.

   ...MO and IL late tonight...
   Latest CAM guidance suggests perhaps an elevated storm or two right
   at the end of the day 1 period, from far northeast MO into west
   central IL around 12Z. Forecast soundings indicate marginal
   instability levels for severe storms, but some hail may be present.
   Given such a limited area of potential and sparse storm
   expectations, will maintain a general thunder area for tonight.

   ..Jewell.. 11/17/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1010 AM CST Fri Nov 17 2017/

   ...Midwest...
   A broad upper trough is deepening across the western states today,
   while a band of strong west-southwesterly mid-level winds extends
   from the Great Basin into the Midwest.  Southerly low-level winds
   over the MO/IL/IN will help moisten/destabilize the air mass,
   leading to scattered showers and a few thunderstorms - mainly after
   dark.  One cluster of convection will move across northern IN and
   southern Lower MI this evening.  At this time, no severe storms are
   anticipated with this activity.  

   Late tonight, 12z model guidance continues to indicate a risk of
   thunderstorms developing after 10z near an approaching cold front
   over north-central MO and central IL.  Forecast parameters suggest
   some risk for hail in the strongest cells, but limited
   areal/temporal confidence precludes an upgrade at this time.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z