Jun 27, 2016 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 27 19:52:19 UTC 2016 (20160627 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20160627 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160627 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 75,111 1,051,784 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
MARGINAL 225,563 13,110,856 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20160627 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 18,251 147,114 Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...
2 % 39,728 1,065,921 Fort Collins, CO...Boulder, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20160627 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 60,614 364,211 Garden City, KS...North Platte, NE...Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...Fort Morgan, CO...
5 % 224,075 12,792,542 Memphis, TN...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Birmingham, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20160627 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 26,088 157,060 Scottsbluff, NE...Sterling, CO...
15 % 66,417 977,703 Fort Collins, CO...Greeley, CO...Longmont, CO...Loveland, CO...Cheyenne, WY...
5 % 96,963 4,990,073 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lakewood, CO...Thornton, CO...
   SPC AC 271952

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0252 PM CDT MON JUN 27 2016

   VALID 272000Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTRAL PLAINS TO LOWER MO
   VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TN/LOWER MS VALLEYS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   PRIMARY CHANGES WERE TO EXPAND/SHIFT CAT 1 AND 2 PROBABILITIES
   EAST/NORTH GIVEN THE PRESENCE OF 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS NORTH OF THE
   DENVER CYCLONE AND CUMULUS FORMING OVER THE BLACK HILLS. THE AXIS OF
   GREATEST SEVERE INTENSITY /AS HIGHLIGHTED BY LARGEST TORNADO AND
   SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL PROBABILITIES/ SHOULD LIE FROM THE NEB
   PANHANDLE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST ACROSS NORTHEAST CO INTO NORTHWEST KS.
   OVERALL FORECAST SCENARIO APPEARS ON-TRACK AS MENTIONED IN THE
   PREVIOUS DISCUSSION.

   ...LOWER MO VALLEY...
   ADDED SEVERE PROBABILITIES FOR HAIL/WIND WITH A CLUSTER OF STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS JUST SOUTHEAST OF OMAHA...AND ALONG THE WEAK COLD
   FRONT INTO NORTHERN KS. OMAHA VWP DATA SAMPLED 30-35 KT WESTERLIES
   AT 5-6 KM AGL WHICH SHOULD REMAIN SUPPORTIVE OF SEMI-ORGANIZED
   STORMS AMID MODERATELY LARGE BUOYANCY. 

   ...LOWER MS AND TN VALLEYS...
   WILL MAINTAIN CAT 1 PROBABILITIES FOR LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN
   NUMEROUS SLOW-MOVING CLUSTERS ACROSS THE REGION. VERY WEAK DEEP
   SHEAR SUGGESTS MINIMAL ORGANIZATION...WITH EMBEDDED WET MICROBURSTS
   THE MAIN HAZARD.

   ..GRAMS.. 06/27/2016

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1153 AM CDT MON JUN 27 2016/

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   RECENT WATER VAPOR LOOPS AND MODEL ANALYSES SUGGEST A VERY SUBTLE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS WY.  THIS FEATURE IS FORECAST TO
   TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE ADJACENT PLAINS OF SOUTHEAST
   WY/NORTHEAST CO AND KS/NEB LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AHEAD
   OF THE FEATURE...SOUTHEASTERLY LOW LEVEL WINDS ARE HELPING TO
   MAINTAIN LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM WESTERN KS INTO
   SOUTHEAST WY.  THIS AREA WILL LIKELY SEE THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. 
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN THIS AREA SHOW FAVORABLE DEEP LAYER VERTICAL
   SHEAR FOR SUPERCELL STORM STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF VERY LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS.  AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE ALONG
   THE CORRIDOR OF HIGHEST LOW LEVEL DEWPOINTS AND STRONGEST
   INSTABILITY.  STORMS MAY GROW UPSCALE AND SPREAD INTO WEST-CENTRAL
   KS OVERNIGHT WITH A CONTINUED RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.

   ...CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...
   WEAK VERTICAL SHEAR AND STRONG CAPE WILL BE PRESENT TODAY OVER A
   BROAD AREA OF THE SOUTHEASTERN US.  WHILE FORCING MECHANISMS ARE
   DIFFUSE AND WEAK...THE POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR ISOLATED AND BRIEFLY
   DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN MATURE THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT THIS AREA
   TODAY.  THE PRIMARY RISK SHOULD MAXIMIZE DURING THE PEAK HEATING
   PERIOD OF LATE AFTERNOON.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z