Sep 25, 2017 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 25 19:40:15 UTC 2017 (20170925 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20170925 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20170925 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 17,840 113,181 Carlsbad, NM...Pecos, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20170925 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20170925 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20170925 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 17,849 113,546 Carlsbad, NM...Pecos, TX...
   SPC AC 251940

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0240 PM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

   Valid 252000Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS THE PECOS VALLEY AREA OF SOUTHWEST
   TEXAS AND SOUTHEAST NEW MEXICO...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms are possible over a small part of
   southeast New Mexico and southwest Texas this afternoon and evening.

   ...20Z Outlook Update...
   Adjustments to the categorical thunder (10 percent probability of
   thunder) line have been made in an attempt to better account for
   ongoing trends evident in the latest observational data.  Otherwise,
   any appreciable risk for severe storms late this afternoon and
   evening  still appears confined to the Pecos Valley area of
   southwest Texas/southeast New Mexico.

   ..Kerr.. 09/25/2017

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1126 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

   ...SE NM/SW TX...
   Latest visible satellite loop shows clearing skies across parts of
   southeast NM and southwest TX, in the wake of early morning
   convection.  Trends suggest that several hours of
   heating/destabilization will occur in this region, leading to
   afternoon MLCAPE values of around 1500 J/kg.  Forecast soundings in
   this region indicate weak low-level winds, but rather strong winds
   above 500mb, providing favorable deep-layer shear for
   organized/rotating updrafts.  Lapse rates are rather steep as well,
   suggesting that hail will be a risk with any persistent storm.  The
   main forecast problem involves weak forcing and uncertainty
   regarding thunderstorm coverage.  Have opted to include a MRGL risk
   area in this update, given the favorable heating and consensus of
   12z CAM solutions that an isolated storm or two are likely to form
   off the Guadalupe/Davis mountains.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z