Jul 22, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 22 19:55:37 UTC 2014 (20140722 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140722 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140722 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 171,720 21,998,253 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140722 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 85,716 13,911,315 Chicago, IL...Grand Rapids, MI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...Naperville, IL...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140722 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 170,572 21,899,375 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Aurora, IL...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 637,956 21,419,637 Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140722 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 170,425 21,894,339 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...St. Louis, MO...Aurora, IL...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 500,750 18,175,568 Indianapolis, IN...Milwaukee, WI...Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...
   SPC AC 221955

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0255 PM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 222000Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM KS/MO INTO SOUTHWEST LOWER
   MI...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER THE BLACK HILLS AND
   ADJACENT REGIONS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER CNTRL OREGON...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED SEVERE STORMS WITH WIND AND HAIL WILL OCCUR LATER TODAY
   AND TONIGHT FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS EAST-NORTHEAST TO SOUTHERN LAKE
   MICHIGAN. A CLUSTER OF SEVERE STORMS IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK
   HILLS REGION...AND MORE ISOLATED WIND AND HAIL STORMS MAY OCCUR OVER
   INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.

   ...KS/MO INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI REGION...

   LATEST HI-RES MODEL GUIDANCE FROM THE HRRR SUGGESTS CONVECTIVE
   COVERAGE THROUGH EVENING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN SPARSE AT BEST. WHILE
   SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE BEEN ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN IA...THEY
   HAVE STRUGGLED TO INTENSIFY/ORGANIZE AS A STRONG CAP REMAINS OVER
   THE REGION...DUE IN PART TO EARLIER CONVECTION/CLOUD COVER ACROSS
   THE IA/MO/IL TRI-STATE AREA. A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL
   REMAIN POSSIBLE FROM SE WI INTO KS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IF THEY
   CAN BREACH THE CAP. BUT THE GREATER THREAT MAY DEVELOP OVERNIGHT
   ACROSS PARTS OF KS/MO/IL...AS SUGGESTED BY THE 12Z NSSL-WRF. ANY
   CONVECTION DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WOULD LIKELY BE ELEVATED AND POSE
   MAINLY A HAIL THREAT. GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS...THE SLIGHT RISK HAS
   BEEN TRIMMED ON THE NORTH AND WESTERN EDGES AS WELL AS ACROSS PARTS
   OF SRN IL INTO IND.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. PLEASE SEE PREVIOUS DISCUSSION
   FOR MORE DETAILS.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/22/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1121 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014/

   ...KS/MO INTO SOUTHERN LAKE MI REGION...
   WATER VAPOR LOOPS SHOW A LARGE UPPER RIDGE IN PLACE OVER MOST OF THE
   U.S. TODAY.  A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS MOVING ACROSS THE GREAT
   LAKES STATES...WITH ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SAGGING SOUTHEASTWARD
   ACROSS PARTS OF WI/IA/NEB.  A MOIST AND VERY UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS
   FORECAST TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON WITH
   DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S AND MLCAPE VALUES OVER 2500 J/KG.  DESPITE THE
   STRONG CAPE AND APPROACHING FRONT...WARM TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND ONLY
   SUBTLE FORCING ALOFT RESULTS IN CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WHEN/WHERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE MS VALLEY LATER TODAY.  MODEL GUIDANCE
   IS VERY DIVERSE...WITH THE HRRR/NSSL SOLUTIONS MOST BULLISH ON
   STORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM NORTHERN IL INTO MO. 
   ANY STORMS THAT FORM WILL POSE A RISK OF HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. 
   DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY...WILL MAINTAIN THE ONGOING SLIGHT RISK AND
   FURTHER REFINE IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ...WESTERN HIGH PLAINS...
   THE UPPER RIDGE WILL BUILD THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD OVER THE
   HIGH PLAINS.  DESPITE THIS PROCESS...MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD
   AGREEMENT THAT SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR WILL BE
   PRESENT FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF ORGANIZED/SUPERCELLULAR STORMS OVER
   PARTS OF SOUTHEAST MT/EASTERN WY BY EARLY EVENING.  THE STORMS THAT
   FORM WILL MOVE WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY STEERING FLOW INTO PARTS OF
   SD/NEB.  THE STRONGEST CELLS WILL BE CAPABLE OF HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS.

   ...CENTRAL MT INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST REGION...
   A BAND OF STRONGER WESTERLY FLOW EXTENDS AROUND THE RIDGE FROM
   NORTHERN CA INTO ORE/ID AND MT.  MARGINAL AFTERNOON INSTABILITY WILL
   DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THIS REGION...LEADING TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SUFFICIENT FLOW ALOFT AND INVERTED-V
   PROFILES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND
   HAIL IN THE STRONGER CELLS.  A WELL-DEFINED EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAX
   OVER NORTHERN CA MAY RESULT IN A SLIGHTLY MORE CONCENTRATED AREA OF
   STRONG STORMS OVER PARTS OF CENTRAL ORE LATER TODAY.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z