Jul 29, 2014 2000 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 29 19:48:59 UTC 2014 (20140729 2000Z Day 1 shapefile | 20140729 2000Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140729 2000 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20140729 2000 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20140729 2000 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20140729 2000 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291948

   DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0248 PM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014

   VALID 292000Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   GENERAL STORMS EXPECTED INTO TONIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   WEST...SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS...FLORIDA...AND THE GREAT LAKES.

   ...WI...
   SCATTERED LOW-TOPPED STORMS HAVE FORMED ACROSS NRN WI WITHIN A
   MEAGERLY BUOYANT AIR MASS AMIDST SURFACE DEW POINTS ONLY IN THE 50S.
   WITH NWLY SURFACE WINDS LIMITING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO AROUND 20-25 KT PER
   DLH/GRB VWP DATA...THE DEGREE OF CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR IS UNLIKELY TO
   SUPPORT UPDRAFT INTENSITIES REQUIRED TO PRODUCE ORGANIZED SEVERE
   HAIL. HOWEVER...SMALL HAIL WILL REMAIN PROBABLE IN THE STRONGEST
   UPDRAFTS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/29/2014

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1117 AM CDT TUE JUL 29 2014/

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS PERIOD
   /S OF A PERSISTENT VORTEX CENTERED INVOF JAMES BAY/...WITH AN
   ASSOCIATED/BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW OVER MOST OF THE AREA E OF
   THE ROCKIES.  MEANWHILE...AN UPSTREAM RIDGE WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
   WEST.  

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT OFF THE E COAST -- TRAILING WWD ACROSS
   FL AND THE NRN GULF AND THEN TURNING NWWD ACROSS TX AND INTO THE
   ROCKIES -- WILL MOVE LITTLE...AS THE PARENT UPPER SYSTEM REMAINS
   QUASI-STATIONARY.  SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   FRONT...WHILE ALSO INCREASING IN COVERAGE WITHIN THE
   ASSOCIATED/POST-FRONTAL UPSLOPE FLOW REGIME OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. 
   LOW-TOPPED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL ALSO AFFECT THE GREAT
   LAKES REGION...WHERE SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST
   CELLS LATER THIS AFTERNOON.

   ...WI VICINITY...
   SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP/SPREAD
   SSEWD ACROSS WI THIS AFTERNOON...AS DIURNAL BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING
   PEAKS BENEATH COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES /AROUND -16 AT H5/ --
   YIELDING MODEST /AROUND 500 J/KG/ MIXED-LAYER CAPE.  WITH MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL NNWLYS SUPPORTING 25 TO 30 KT 0-6 KM BULK SHEAR...A FEW
   CELLS MAY BRIEFLY ACQUIRE SUFFICIENT INTENSITY TO PRODUCE HAIL --
   POSSIBLY APPROACHING SEVERE LEVELS -- BEFORE CONVECTION DIMINISHES
   THIS EVENING.

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z