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Dec 15, 2017 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Dec 15 05:50:32 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171215 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20171215 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 150550

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1150 PM CST Thu Dec 14 2017

   Valid 161200Z - 171200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms will be possible across the middle and upper
   Texas coast late Saturday evening and across southwest Louisiana
   Saturday night into early Sunday morning.

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A low-amplitude upper-ridge will move eastward from the Great Plains
   into the Mississippi Valley on Saturday as an upper-level trough
   moves across northern Mexico. This feature will reach the southern
   Plains Saturday night with a 40 to 55 kt low-level jet strengthening
   ahead of the trough. As the trough moves quickly northeastward,
   low-level moisture over the western Gulf of Mexico will advect
   northward to the upper Texas Coast around midnight. Isolated
   thunderstorms may develop with this convection spreading eastward
   into southwestern Louisiana during the overnight period. Although
   surface dewpoints are forecast to reach the lower 60s F in far
   southwestern Louisiana during the 09Z to 12Z time-frame, a sharp
   surface inversion will be in place evident on forecast soundings.
   This will keep any convection elevated in nature. For this reason, a
   severe threat is not expected early Sunday morning.

   Elsewhere across the CONUS, thunderstorm activity is not forecast
   during the day 2 period.

   ..Broyles.. 12/15/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: December 15, 2017
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