SPC AC 241711

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1211 PM CDT FRI MAY 24 2013

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS...

   ...NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...

   EARLY MORNING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO ROTATE NWD ACROSS SRN
   AB/SK AND WEAK HEIGHT RISES ARE ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES
   IN ITS WAKE.  EVEN SO A BROAD ZONE OF MID LEVEL SWLY FLOW ON THE
   ORDER OF 30-40KT SHOULD EXTEND ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE
   NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS BROAD ZONE OF MODEST
   DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   ORGANIZED TSTM ACTIVITY...INITIALLY FORMING WITHIN UPSLOPE REGIONS
   ALONG LEE TROUGH...THEN POSSIBLY MODULATED BY LLJ AFTER DARK.

   BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE HIGH
   PLAINS AS LEE TROUGH BECOMES FIRMLY ESTABLISHED DOWNSTREAM OF WRN
   U.S. UPPER TROUGH.  SFC DEW POINTS IN THE 50S SHOULD ADVECT ACROSS
   THE WRN DAKOTAS INTO ERN MT WHERE 2KM DEEP ELY LOW LEVEL WINDS WILL
   VEER INTO THE SW AT MID LEVELS.  FORECAST SOUNDING FOR MLS AT 23/00Z
   DEPICTS MODEST INSTABILITY...SBCAPE OF 2800 J/KG...AND STRONG SHEAR
   SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS.  OTHER SOUNDINGS ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS
   EXHIBIT THESE CHARACTERISTICS FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED ROTATING
   UPDRAFTS.  ALTHOUGH NO DISCERNIBLE DISTURBANCES ARE FORECAST TO
   AFFECT THE HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IT APPEARS STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING WILL WEAKEN THE CAP SUCH THAT OROGRAPHIC FORCING
   SHOULD LEAD TO TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY LATE AFTERNOON.  LARGE HAIL IS
   LIKELY WITH ANY SUPERCELL THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THIS REGION AND
   ISOLATED TORNADOES ARE ALSO POSSIBLE.


   ...ERN NM/WEST TX...

   MUCH WEAKER DEEP LAYER FLOW IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES WHERE
   500 MB FLOW MAY STRUGGLE TO MAINTAIN 20KT INTO ERN NM.  AS ACROSS
   THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...STRONG HEATING NEAR THE LEE TROUGH WILL
   PROVE INSTRUMENTAL IN AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.  A FEW
   STORMS MAY PRODUCE HAIL/WIND ACROSS THIS REGION BUT WITH WEAKER
   SHEAR THE LIKELIHOOD FOR MEANINGFUL ORGANIZATION IS CONSIDERABLY
   LESS THAN POINTS NORTH.

   ..DARROW.. 05/24/2013

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z