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Sep 22, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 22 05:52:53 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140922 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140922 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 220552

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1252 AM CDT MON SEP 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ON
   TUESDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SOUTHERN
   ROCKIES...AND COASTAL SOUTHEAST UNITED STATES. A FEW OF THE STORMS
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS COULD BE STRONG TO SEVERE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SPLIT UPPER-FLOW PATTERN WILL UNDERGO A DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION
   TUESDAY AS RELATIVELY WEAK WESTERLIES PERSIST OVER MOST OF THE
   CONUS. A REMNANT UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE NORTH-CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS EARLY TUESDAY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   AND WEAKEN OVER THE DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST. ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS/UPPER
   MIDWEST BEGINNING EARLY IN THE PERIOD...WHILE OTHER POTENTIALLY
   STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP LATER IN THE DAY IN
   VICINITY OF A CENTRAL PLAINS LEE TROUGH. THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE
   POSSIBLE ALONG/SOUTH OF A REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS FL AND SOUTH
   TX.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS...
   AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW/SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GENERALLY SPREAD
   EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AWAY FROM THE REGION DURING THE DAY...WITH
   RELATIVELY WEAK CYCLONIC WESTERLIES WILL BE COINCIDENT WITH AN
   EASTWARD-SHIFTING SURFACE TROUGH. WHILE OVERALL FORCING WILL BE
   RELATIVELY WEAK...SUFFICIENT HEATING/CONVERGENCE NEAR THE LEE TROUGH
   COULD CONTRIBUTE TO ISOLATED SURFACE-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS.
   ON THE WESTERN FRINGE OF EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER/SCATTERED
   PRECIPITATION...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MLCAPE COULD REACH/EXCEED
   1000 J/KG BY PEAK HEATING IN VICINITY OF THE TROUGH. ALTHOUGH WINDS
   WILL STRONGLY VEER WITH HEIGHT...MODEST LOW/MID TROPOSPHERIC WIND
   SPEEDS WILL TEND TO LIMIT EFFECTIVE SHEAR TO AROUND 30 KT. WITH SOME
   SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE...LOW SEVERE
   PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED...MAINLY RELATED TO AN
   EPISODIC/MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL POTENTIAL BETWEEN TUESDAY
   MID-AFTERNOON AND MID-EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 09/22/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 22, 2014
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