SPC AC 240424
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
NEW MEXICO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND INTO THE EL PASO TEXAS
Isolated severe storms with hail or wind are possible over New
Mexico into southeast Colorado and far west Texas Sunday afternoon.
General thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from Texas across the
immediate Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, and across the Great
A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain situated from the
northern Plains across the Great lakes and into the Northeast, with
an upper ridge nudging eastward toward the Great Basin. High
pressure will keep conditions dry over most of the central/northern
Plains eastward across the OH/TN valleys, with a moist air mass to
the south of a weak front stretching from the coastal Carolinas
across the central Gulf Coast and into north Texas. Southeasterly
surface flow will maintain 50s dewpoints into the southern High
Plains where a few severe thunderstorms are probable.
...New Mexico, southeast Colorado, far west Texas...
Instability on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected to develop
due to heating and the presence of 50s dewpoints. Storms are likely
to form after 21Z from western NM into south central CO, and develop
and propagate southeastward. Weak but veering winds with height may
prove sufficient for a few long-lived cells capable of hail, with
outflow also producing isolated severe wind gusts.
A moist and unstable air mass will remain along the coastal
Carolinas and into southeast Georgia during the afternoon, and
strong heating will aid in the development of up to 2000 J/kg
MUCAPE. However, lapse rates aloft will be weak. Sufficient
convergence near the sea-breeze/front will likely yield scattered
afternoon storms. Shear profiles will remain weak in the lower
portion of the troposphere, but ample precipitable water may lead to
isolated strong wind gusts.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z