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May 1, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 1 05:33:51 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160501 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160501 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 010533

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1233 AM CDT SUN MAY 01 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN TN TO VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GULF
   STATES...NORTHWARD INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC.  A FEW STRONG STORMS
   ARE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN TENNESSEE INTO VIRGINIA.

   ...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   LATEST GFS/NAM MODELS FORECAST SYNOPTIC FRONTAL POSITION DRAPED
   ACROSS THE DELMARVA...WSWWD ACROSS WV/KY/MIDDLE TN AT 18Z...FARTHER
   NORTH THAN FRIDAY MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTED.  FOR THIS REASON HAVE
   OPTED TO ADJUST CAT1 SEVERE PROBS NWD TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
   FRONTAL CONVECTION THAT WILL DEVELOP WITHIN STRONGER SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT.

   EARLY IN THE PERIOD A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT
   ACROSS PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND WITH BRIEF SHORT-WAVE RIDGING IN ITS
   WAKE OVER THE DELMARVA.  AS A RESULT...STRONGEST BOUNDARY LAYER
   HEATING WILL BE NOTED ACROSS VA/WV.  WHILE BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED
   TO BE THAT STRONG...LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL STEEPEN ACROSS THIS
   REGION AHEAD OF EXPECTED CONVECTION THAT SHOULD SPREAD INTO THIS
   AREA LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SUGGEST CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF CONVECTION WILL
   EVOLVE AHEAD OF PROGRESSIVE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE TN VALLEY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD
   ALONG AFOREMENTIONED FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS WV INTO WRN VA WHERE
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR SUSTAINING UPDRAFTS.
    ESEWD STORM MOTIONS SHOULD ALLOW TSTMS TO SPREAD EAST OF THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN DURING THE MID-LATE EVENING HOURS.  GUSTY WINDS AND
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...SOUTH TX TO LOWER MS VALLEY...

   SFC FRONT IS EXPECTED TO SURGE THROUGH SOUTH TX BY SUNRISE MONDAY
   MORNING.  WHILE POST-FRONTAL CONVECTION MAY LINGER ACROSS THIS
   REGION IT APPEARS THE STRONGEST TSTMS WILL BE OFFSHORE OVER THE NWRN
   GULF BASIN.

   ..DARROW.. 05/01/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 01, 2016
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