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Apr 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 05:50:30 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140423 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140423 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 52,616 4,059,659 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Monroe, LA...
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230507

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1207 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO NORTHEAST ARKANSAS AND WESTERN
   TENNESSEE THURSDAY.  GUSTY WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE THE PRIMARY
   THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY...

   SRN EXTENT OF STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS WILL EXTEND INTO THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY THURSDAY AS PROGRESSIVE TROUGH TRANSLATES TO A POSITION FROM
   SERN MN...SWD INTO CNTRL AR AT 25/00Z.  EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD...CONTINUANCE OF LATE DAY1 CONVECTION SHOULD SPREAD INTO
   PORTIONS OF THE UPPER/MID MS VALLEY REGION ALONG NOSE OF LLJ.  THIS
   ACTIVITY SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT PROPAGATES EWD INTO
   INCREASINGLY HOSTILE AIRMASS.

   OF MORE CONCERN IS A CORRIDOR OF EXPECTED STRONG HEATING FROM ERN
   TX...NEWD INTO THE BOOTHEEL OF MO.  ALTHOUGH CONVERGENCE ALONG
   TRAILING COLD FRONT SHOULD WANE ACROSS TX...SRN INFLUENCE OF
   STRONGER FORCING IS EXPECTED TO CLIP PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY.  IN FACT...THE NAM SUGGESTS A MEANINGFUL SHORT-WAVE TROUGH
   MAY EVOLVE WITHIN THE BASE OF THE LONGER-WAVE TROUGH AND EJECT
   ACROSS SRN MO/NRN AR AT PEAK HEATING.  DEEPENING WLY FLOW SHOULD
   ALLOW SFC TEMPERATURES TO WARM RAPIDLY ACROSS THIS REGION AND
   INHIBITION IS EXPECTED TO BE NEGLIGIBLE BY 20Z ALONG THE WIND SHIFT.
    HAVE INCREASED SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE FRONT TO ACCOUNT FOR EXPECTED
   SCT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT BY MID-LATE AFTERNOON WITHIN A
   SUFFICIENTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT FOR SUSTAINING ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS. 
   ALTHOUGH DEEP FLOW WILL VEER SUBSTANTIALLY IT APPEARS BULK SHEAR
   WILL BE MORE THAN ADEQUATE FOR ISOLATED SUPERCELLS.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ADDITIONALLY...HAVE EXTENDED LOW SEVERE PROBS ALONG WEAK WIND SHIFT
   ACROSS PORTIONS OF SERN/SCNTRL TX.  MODELS DO NOT DEVELOP CONVECTION
   ALONG THIS BOUNDARY BUT VERY WARM SFC TEMPERATURES MAY BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR ONE OR TWO SEVERE STORMS.  STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODEST
   INSTABILITY WOULD PROVE SUPPORTIVE OF LARGE HAIL/GUSTY WINDS IF
   TSTMS DEVELOP.

   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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