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Oct 25, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 25 17:02:56 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141025 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141025 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 251702

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1202 PM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR ON SUNDAY NIGHT OVER
   MINNESOTA AND WISCONSIN. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER RIDGE WILL SHIFT EWD FROM THE PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES
   WITH A BROAD AREA OF CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT SPREADING EWD ACROSS THE
   ROCKIES AND PLAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD. AT THE SURFACE...A LOW
   PRESSURE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM SRN SK SEWD ACROSS THE NRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS. DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   BENEATH THIS TROUGH SHOULD YIELD WIDELY-SPACED LIGHTNING STRIKES
   ACROSS CNTRL ID INTO NRN WY.

   MEANWHILE...A SURFACE HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE SERN U.S. WITH ONLY
   MODEST LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS INTO THE MID
   MS VALLEY. SOME OF THIS NWD FLUX OF MOISTURE WILL BE RESPONSIBLE FOR
   ELEVATED NOCTURNAL STORMS FROM MN INTO WI AS A SWLY LOW-LEVEL JET
   INCREASES IN ADVANCE OF THE UPPER TROUGH.

   ...MN INTO WI AND UPPER MI...
   ELEVATED INSTABILITY WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY FROM ERN MN
   ACROSS WI ATOP A COOL/STABLE LOW-LEVEL AIR MASS. THE COMBINATION OF
   LIFT FROM WARM ADVECTION AND HEIGHT FALLS ALOFT SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT
   FOR A RASH OF ELEVATED STORMS. THE COOL TEMPERATURE PROFILES SFC AND
   ALOFT BOTH SUGGEST SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE GROUND.

   ..JEWELL.. 10/25/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: October 25, 2014
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