Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jan 29, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jan 29 05:48:56 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150129 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150129 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 290548

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1148 PM CST WED JAN 28 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR LATE AFTERNOON FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
   NIGHT OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   AN UPPER TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE ERN U.S. FRIDAY AND EXIT THE
   ATLANTIC SEABOARD LATER IN THE DAY. A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL EXIST
   FARTHER WEST WITH SRN STREAM CUTOFF LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE EASTERN
   PACIFIC ADVANCING INTO THE SWRN STATES. 

   ...SRN AZ...

   PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ADVECT NEWD THROUGH AZ...NM AND
   TX WITHIN THE SWLY FLOW REGIME PRECEDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW
   OVER THE ERN PACIFIC. THE INCREASE IN DEEP LAYER MOISTURE WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. HOWEVER...MID-LEVEL DRY
   SLOT IS FORECAST TO SPREAD INTO PORTIONS OF SRN AZ DURING THE DAY IN
   WAKE OF DEEPER MOIST PLUME AND AHEAD OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.
   MOISTENING AND MODEST DIABATIC WARMING OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD
   OCCUR OVER SRN AZ...WHICH IN CONJUNCTION WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT
   WITHIN THE UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO AT LEAST WEAK
   INSTABILITY...WITH MUCAPE AOB 300 J/KG. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   INITIATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND PERSIST INTO THE EVENING WITHIN ZONE
   OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM.

   ..DIAL.. 01/29/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 29, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities