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Jul 26, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 26 17:22:09 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170726 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170726 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 261722

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1222 PM CDT Wed Jul 26 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEW ENGLAND
   TO OK...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered thunderstorms will develop across a large portion of the
   US Thursday. A few storms may produce gusty winds across the
   central/northern High Plains and from Oklahoma to southern New
   England.

   ...Frontal Zone from OK to NY...

   High-PW plume will be gradually shunted southeast across the
   contiguous US during the day2 period as a frontal zone progresses to
   a position from Lake ON, southwest across IN into northern OK by
   18z. This high PW plume will be characterized by poor lapse rates
   with embedded left over convective MCVs. Each of these features will
   be difficult to predict with any certainty beyond a few hours and
   12z model guidance is not particularly useful identifying any
   notable feature that could aid organized strong convection. Even so,
   short-wave troughing will shift across ON into QC with the southern
   extent of this feature expected to extend to a latitude of southern
   New England. Deep-layer shear will be notably stronger across the
   northeastern US ahead of this feature but forecast instability
   appears inadequate for more than marginal severe at this time. Gusty
   winds are the primary threat with convection across this region.

   Farther southwest from the TN Valley into the southern Plains,
   strong boundary-layer heating will be focused along this corridor
   with the steepest lapse rates occurring over the southern Plains
   where surface temperatures should soar to near 100F. With PW values
   expected to be near 2" across this region a few damaging downbursts
   seem possible.

   ...Northern/Central High Plains...

   Modest deep-layer shear will develop across the high Plains from
   eastern MT into northeast CO as upper ridging remains anchored over
   the Rockies. Afternoon convection that evolves across this region
   will do so within an environment favorable for deep rotation and a
   few slow-moving supercells could develop during the late
   afternoon/early evening, though forecast lapse rates are not
   particularly steep for this region and buoyancy modest at best. For
   these reasons it appears any supercells that evolve should prove
   marginally severe with hail/wind possible.

   ..Darrow.. 07/26/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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Page last modified: July 26, 2017
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