Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jun 24, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 24 04:24:54 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170624 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170624 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 240424

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1124 PM CDT Fri Jun 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF
   NEW MEXICO...SOUTH CENTRAL COLORADO...AND INTO THE EL PASO TEXAS
   AREA....

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms with hail or wind are possible over New
   Mexico into southeast Colorado and far west Texas Sunday afternoon.
   General thunderstorms are expected on Sunday from Texas across the
   immediate Gulf Coast and into the Southeast, and across the Great
   Lakes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large area of cyclonic flow aloft will remain situated from the
   northern Plains across the Great lakes and into the Northeast, with
   an upper ridge nudging eastward toward the Great Basin. High
   pressure will keep conditions dry over most of the central/northern
   Plains eastward across the OH/TN valleys, with a moist air mass to
   the south of a weak front stretching from the coastal Carolinas
   across the central Gulf Coast and into north Texas. Southeasterly
   surface flow will maintain 50s dewpoints into the southern High
   Plains where a few severe thunderstorms are probable.

   ...New Mexico, southeast Colorado, far west Texas...
   Instability on the order of 1000-1500 J/kg is expected to develop
   due to heating and the presence of 50s dewpoints. Storms are likely
   to form after 21Z from western NM into south central CO, and develop
   and propagate southeastward. Weak but veering winds with height may
   prove sufficient for a few long-lived cells capable of hail, with
   outflow also producing isolated severe wind gusts.

   ...Coastal Carolinas...
   A moist and unstable air mass will remain along the coastal
   Carolinas and into southeast Georgia during the afternoon, and
   strong heating will aid in the development of up to 2000 J/kg
   MUCAPE. However, lapse rates aloft will be weak. Sufficient
   convergence near the sea-breeze/front will likely yield scattered
   afternoon storms. Shear profiles will remain weak in the lower
   portion of the troposphere, but ample precipitable water may lead to
   isolated strong wind gusts.

   ..Jewell.. 06/24/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: June 24, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities