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Aug 19, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 19 17:40:02 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140819 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140819 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 191740

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1240 PM CDT TUE AUG 19 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE CNTRL AND
   NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE OH
   VALLEY...

   CORRECTED FOR WORDING IN LAST PARAGRAPH

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS AND UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY. LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE MAIN THREATS WITH THESE STORMS...BUT A
   TORNADO OR TWO COULD OCCUR AS WELL. OTHER STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS
   MAY OCCUR FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS FROM THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STRONG WIND
   GUSTS AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THESE STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   GREAT LAKES UPPER LOW IS FORECAST TO DRIFT VERY SLOWLY EAST THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY WITH SHORTWAVE RIDGING BUILDING OVER THE MS VALLEY. UPPER
   LOW NOW OFF THE CA COAST WILL BECOME CUT OFF FROM THE NRN STREAM AS
   IT MOVES SWD INTO SRN CA. LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY
   LOCATED OVER THE GREAT BASIN WILL CONTINUE NEWD REACHING THE NRN
   PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. AT THE SFC A LEE TROUGH WILL PERSIST
   OVER THE CNTRL AND NRN HIGH PLAINS. A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM A WEAK SFC LOW OVER WRN NEB THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY
   AND INTO THE OH VALLEY EARLY WEDNESDAY. WRN PORTION OF THIS BOUNDARY
   SHOULD LIFT NWD AS A WARM FRONT DURING THE DAY. 

   ...ERN NEB AND SD THROUGH THE UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...

   ELEVATED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING OVER PORTIONS OF SD WITHIN
   ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT EARLY WEDNESDAY.
   ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT NWD WITH A ZONE OF DIABATIC WARMING
   DEVELOPING FROM THE SOUTH ACROSS NEB AND SRN SD CONTRIBUTING TO
   MODERATE /1500-2000 J/KG/ MLCAPE DURING THE AFTERNOON. AS THE
   BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES...STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG
   THE LEE TROUGH FROM WRN/CNTRL SD SWD INTO NEB. A BELT OF MODERATE
   MID-LEVEL WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PROMOTE 30-40
   KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR. A FEW ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING POTENTIAL FOR
   SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE
   MAIN THREATS. A COUPLE TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY
   IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT WHERE LOW-LEVEL VEERING WILL BE MORE
   PRONOUNCED.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE OH VALLEY...

   AFTER EARLY MORNING ELEVATED STORMS DISSIPATE...THE ATMOSPHERE IS
   EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF AND SOUTH OF
   WARM FRONT. WEAK FORCING AND HEIGHT RISES RAISE SOME UNCERTAINTY
   REGARDING EXTENT OF AFTERNOON REDEVELOPMENT OR STORM COVERAGE.
   HOWEVER...THE CAP IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG AND
   ADDITIONAL STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZES.
   ACTIVITY WILL BE EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW ALOFT WITH 25-35 KT
   EFFECTIVE SHEAR. STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO SMALL CLUSTERS WITH BOW
   ECHOES...POSING A THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL THROUGH EARLY
   EVENING.

   ..DIAL.. 08/19/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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