Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jan 17, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 17 06:35:54 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180117 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180117 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 170635

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1235 AM CST Wed Jan 17 2018

   Valid 181200Z - 191200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated thunderstorms are possible along the Pacific Northwest
   coast Thursday into Thursday night.

   ...Synopsis...
   A powerful southwesterly mid/upper jet will sink southward along the
   Pacific Northwest coastline Thursday. Concurrently, strong
   southwesterlies will also spread farther inland towards the northern
   High Plains through the period. Downstream ridging will gradually
   flatten in response, while slowly shifting southeast across the
   Desert Southwest and central Plains. To its southeast, a weak
   impulse will cross from northern Mexico into far southern Texas
   Thursday night.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   Behind the aforementioned southwesterly jet, cold mid-level temps
   (around -30 to -34 C at 500mb) will overspread parts of the Pacific
   Northwest. Increasing low/mid-level instability, combined with
   adequate boundary-layer moisture near the coast, will promote
   scattered convection through the period. Forecast soundings indicate
   that a few updrafts should deepen enough for isolated lightning
   strikes along the Washington, Oregon, and northern California
   coastlines.

   ...South Texas...
   As a weak impulse crosses the Rio Grande late in the period,
   cooling/moistening mid levels over south Texas will generate weak
   elevated buoyancy. While a thunderstorm cannot be ruled out,
   forecast soundings indicate nascent updrafts will struggle with
   dry-air entrainment near 700-600mb, likely precluding deep
   convection.

   ..Picca.. 01/17/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: January 17, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities