Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
May 25, 2017 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu May 25 05:46:16 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170525 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170525 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250546

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1246 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
   HIGH PLAINS EAST TO PORTIONS OF THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms will be possible Friday across the central High
   Plains eastward into the middle Mississippi and Ohio Valley region.
   The greatest coverage of severe storms will be from northeastern
   Colorado into western and central Kansas.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper-level low over the northeast states will lift northeast
   while another upper low over Manitoba/Saskatchewan Provinces moves
   little.  Within the relatively low-amplitude flow that will evolve
   south of these features, a shortwave trough will move across the
   central High Plains late in the day.  A cold front will extend south
   from the upper Midwest across Kansas/eastern Colorado Friday
   afternoon, while a second cold front extends from the southern High
   Plains across Oklahoma to a weak surface low near the
   Missouri/Illinois border.  A warm front will extend east from the
   low across the Ohio Valley.

   ...Central Plains...
   An increasingly moist southeasterly low-level flow (upper 40s/near
   50 deg F surface dew points) will develop across the higher terrain
   of northeast Colorado/southeast Wyoming on Friday, with mid/upper
   50s farther east across Kansas. This will result in MLCAPE of
   750-1500 j/kg by late afternoon, and mid-level flow of 35 kts will
   contribute to deep-layer shear of around 40 kts. Thunderstorms
   should develop across the high terrain as the upslope flow is
   augmented by ascent with the approaching upper-level impulse.
   Initial storm mode will include a few supercells capable of very
   large hail given steepening mid-level lapse rates. Damaging gusts
   will also be possible, and forecast soundings depict low-level
   hodograph curvature that suggests at least some risk for a tornado.
   A developing 30-35 kt low-level jet/warm advection regime should
   result in one or two clusters eventually evolving and moving east
   overnight across western/central Kansas. A continued risk for large
   hail and strong winds will exist with these storms.

   ...Missouri east to the Ohio Valley...
   Substantial variability exists with latest guidance regarding
   thunderstorm development along the frontal boundary across Missouri
   Friday afternoon, and potentially just north of the warm front over
   the Ohio Valley Friday night. Convective inhibition will likely hold
   through much of the day, but frontal convergence may result in
   isolated thunderstorm development in the 21z-03z time frame along
   the cold front. Strong surface-based buoyancy and 35-40 kts of
   deep-layer shear would support severe storms with any sustained
   updrafts. Given uncertainty regarding development, will retain the
   Marginal Risk with this outlook.

   Developing warm advection Friday night and lift with a mid-level
   impulse may result in thunderstorm development north of the warm
   front. Guidance remains divergent regarding the location of the
   front and the potential for development, but believe sufficient
   confidence exists to maintain Marginal Risk across portions of the
   Ohio Valley. Moderate elevated buoyancy and 45 kts of westerly
   mid-level flow would be sufficient for a severe hail and wind risk.

   ...Southern Plains...
   Despite intense diurnal heating, strong capping is expected to
   suppress convective development along a dryline extending from
   south-central Oklahoma into southwest Texas.

   ..Bunting.. 05/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: May 25, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities