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Aug 4, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Aug 4 17:23:34 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150804 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150804 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 041723

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1223 PM CDT TUE AUG 04 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   SW MO AND VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SW MO SLIGHT
   RISK...FROM ERN KS/OK TO WRN TN...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR
   ERN ND...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR PARTS
   OF THE NRN ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON FOR NRN NEW
   ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HIGH WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER
   PORTIONS OF EASTERN KANSAS AND PARTS OF MISSOURI ON WEDNESDAY. OTHER
   MORE ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND MAY OCCUR
   OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA...AS WELL
   AS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND.

   ...SW MO AND VICINITY TOMORROW AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A LEAD/WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER OK WILL MOVE EWD/NEWD AND
   WEAKEN...WHILE THE PRIMARY WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS
   PROGRESSES ESEWD TO MO TOMORROW.  ONLY A WEAK SURFACE REFLECTION OF
   THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING MO IS EXPECTED ALONG A STALLED
   SURFACE FRONT.  A COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR TOMORROW IS THE LIKELIHOOD
   THAT CONVECTION WILL BE ONGOING EARLY IN THE PERIOD ACROSS ERN
   KS/MO.  LINGERING RAIN/CLOUDS WILL POTENTIALLY LIMIT SURFACE HEATING
   SOMEWHAT...WITH STRONGER DESTABILIZATION MORE PROBABLE ALONG THE SRN
   AND WRN FLANKS OF ANY MORNING CLOUDS/CONVECTION.  THE NE EDGE OF THE
   STEEPER MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES...ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS NEAR
   70 F AND SURFACE TEMPERATURES WELL INTO THE 80S/LOWER 90S...WILL
   SUPPORT MLCAPE VALUES OF 2500-3500 J/KG.

   VERTICAL SHEAR WILL INCREASE SOME THROUGH THE DAY WITH THE APPROACH
   OF THE MIDLEVEL TROUGH...SUCH THAT PROFILES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE
   FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS SOME EMBEDDED
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES.  A FEW DAMAGING GUSTS AND AT LEAST MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE MAIN CONCERNS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ...ERN ND AND VICINITY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING...
   A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER WRN MT WILL DRIFT EWD OVER ND TOMORROW.
    AN INCREASE IN MOISTURE FROM THE S AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES FROM
   THE W...IN CONJUNCTION WITH SOME INCREASE IN VERTICAL SHEAR...WILL
   RESULT IN A SUFFICIENT THERMODYNAMIC AND KINEMATIC ENVIRONMENT FOR
   STORMS WITH AT LEAST A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK.  THE STRONGER STORM
   DEVELOPMENT DURING THE AFTERNOON SHOULD OCCUR ALONG A SURFACE TROUGH
   ACROSS ERN ND...IN THE WAKE OF ANY MORNING CONVECTION.

   ...NRN ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING NRN CA WILL EJECT ENEWD TOMORROW OVER
   THE NRN ROCKIES...IN ADVANCE OF A NRN STREAM LOW OVER BC/WA.  THOUGH
   BUOYANCY WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY LARGE...AN INCREASE IN VERTICAL
   SHEAR WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK FOR ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING OUTFLOW
   GUSTS WITH CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ...NRN NEW ENGLAND WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...
   RELATIVELY COOL CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER NRN NEW
   ENGLAND...WITH EMBEDDED SPEED MAXIMA ROTATING EWD AROUND THE SRN
   PERIPHERY OF A CLOSED LOW OVER QUEBEC.  LINGERING LOW-LEVEL
   MOISTURE...BENEATH COLD 500 MB TEMPERATURES NEAR -18 C...WILL
   SUPPORT A RISK FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WITH DIURNAL CONVECTION.

   ..THOMPSON.. 08/04/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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