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Jul 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 25 05:55:13 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160725 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160725 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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   SPC AC 250555

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT MON JUL 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SD AND NEB...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE NRN AND CNTRL
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE CENTRAL AND
   NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BUILD WWD OVER THE GREAT
   BASIN...MAINTAINING MODERATE WLY FLOW FROM THE PAC NW INTO THE
   NRN/CNTRL PLAINS. A SLOW-MOVING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   POSITIONED S OF THE OH VALLEY PRIOR TO FRONTOLYSIS...AS HIGH
   PRESSURE BUILDS TOWARDS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. A SECOND WEAK COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE SWD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES...BEFORE STALLING EARLY WED MORNING.

   ...BLACK HILLS AREA SEWD INTO CNTRL NEB...
   A BROAD AND MODERATELY STRONG LLJ SHOULD BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   CONVECTION ACROSS PARTS OF THE DAKOTAS EARLY TUE MORNING...THOUGH
   ASSOCIATED DETAILS REGARDING POSITION AND LONGEVITY INTO THE LATE
   MORNING AND AFTERNOON REMAIN UNCERTAIN. MORE PROBABLE IS THAT STRONG
   HEATING WILL OCCUR ACROSS WRN SD INTO WRN NEB...ALONG THE FRINGE OF
   RICHER MOISTURE RETURNING NWWD. MODEL CONSENSUS HAS INCREASED IN
   DEPICTING A FAVORABLY TIMED IMPULSE MOVING ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS...WHICH SHOULD ENCOURAGE TSTM INITIATION OVER THE BLACK HILLS
   WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME. 20-30 KT OF WNWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE
   MARGINALLY SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES...WITH EVENTUAL
   EVOLUTION INTO A SEWD PROPAGATING CLUSTER INTO NRN/WRN NEB
   ANTICIPATED LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...INCLUDING THE POTENTIAL FOR
   LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS. ERN EXTENT OF SVR THREAT /INCLUDING
   ERN NEB AND ERN SD/ IS MORE UNCERTAIN WITH REGARDS TO MAINTENANCE OF
   EARLY MORNING CONVECTION AND THE EFFECT ON DIURNAL
   DESTABILIZATION...BUT THIS AREA IS IN PROXIMITY TO RICHER MOISTURE
   /MID-UPPER 60S F DEWPOINTS/ NEAR AND W OF THE MID-MO VALLEY.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 25, 2016
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