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Jul 22, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 22 05:49:53 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140722 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140722 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 220549

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1249 AM CDT TUE JUL 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF WRN/CNTRL MT...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND AND MONTANA
   WEDNESDAY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELSEWHERE...STRONG TO LOCALLY
   SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS AND FROM
   THE NORTHEAST TO THE OZARKS AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD PUSH INLAND OVER THE PACIFIC NW.
   A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN BUT REMAIN ANCHORED OVER
   THE SRN ROCKIES WITH A RIDGE EMANATING N ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   A BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL PROGRESS E OVER SE CANADA/NE CONUS. A
   WEAK MID-LEVEL LOW SHOULD DRIFT W ALONG THE LA COAST. AT THE
   SURFACE...A COLD FRONT SHOULD STRETCH FROM NEW ENGLAND TO THE OZARKS
   BY WED EVENING WITH A LEE TROUGH ANCHORED OVER THE NRN/CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS. A COLD FRONT SHOULD PUSH E ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES WED NIGHT.

   ...WRN/CNTRL MT...
   STRENGTHENING MID/UPPER-LEVEL SWLYS AND HEIGHT FALLS WILL OVERSPREAD
   THE NRN ROCKIES AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH.
   LOW-LEVEL E/SELYS SHOULD AID IN ADVECTING THE NRN HIGH PLAINS
   MOISTURE PLUME ALONG THE LEE OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN. 50S SURFACE DEW
   POINTS IN CONJUNCTION WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE RATES SHOULD
   SUPPORT WEAK TO MODERATE BUOYANCY BY PEAK HEATING. AT LEAST ISOLATED
   STORMS SHOULD FORM OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF WRN MT. ELONGATED
   HODOGRAPHS WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF
   ISOLATED SEVERE WIND/HAIL.

   ...NEW ENGLAND...
   A BELT OF 30-40 KT 700 MB SWLYS SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE WARM SECTOR
   AHEAD OF THE SURFACE COLD FRONT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL
   BE MODEST...MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS AND FAVORABLE
   TIMING OF THE FRONT WITH RESPECT TO PEAK HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN
   MLCAPE REACHING 1000-1500 J/KG. MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS AND FRONTAL
   CONVERGENCE SHOULD FOSTER SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS INTO THE
   EVENING. ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SUPERCELL WIND PROFILES WILL EXIST ALONG THE LEE TROUGH WED LATE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. BUT THE REGION WILL REMAIN UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. THIS RENDERS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
   THE AMOUNT/SUSTAINABILITY OF DIURNALLY-DRIVEN TSTMS. SHOULD GREATER
   COVERAGE OF TSTMS BE ANTICIPATED IN LATER OUTLOOKS...AN UPGRADE TO
   SLIGHT RISK WOULD BE WARRANTED. HIGHER CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN
   NOCTURNAL WAA-DRIVEN TSTMS ARCING TOWARDS THE CNTRL DAKOTAS...WITH A
   THREAT FOR LOCALLY SEVERE HAIL.

   ...OZARKS AREA...
   GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT IN DEPICTING A BELT OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL
   N/NELYS BETWEEN THE SRN ROCKIES HIGH AND LA COASTAL LOW. ISOLATED TO
   SCATTERED CONVECTION MAY FORM ALONG THE COLD FRONT IN S MO. THIS
   ACTIVITY MAY COALESCE INTO MULTICELL CLUSTERS THAT PROPAGATE SW
   ACROSS A VERY WARM AND AT LEAST MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS...WITH
   A RISK FOR DAMAGING WINDS.

   ...OH VALLEY...CNTRL APPALACHIANS...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STORMS ARE ANTICIPATED WED AFTERNOON/EVENING
   ALONG THE COLD FRONT WITHIN A MODERATELY BUOYANT AIR MASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS.
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL BE WEAKER RELATIVE TO FARTHER NE/SW. BUT GIVEN
   THE AMOUNT OF STORMS...LOOSELY-ORGANIZED MULTICELL CLUSTERS MAY FORM
   WITH LOCALIZED DAMAGING WINDS.

   ..GRAMS.. 07/22/2014

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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