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Mar 2, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Mar 2 07:03:36 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150302 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150302 0700Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 020703

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0103 AM CST MON MAR 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO MIDDLE TENNESSEE.  ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS EASTERN UTAH INTO
   WESTERN COLORADO.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   SWLY MID-UPPER-LEVEL FLOW WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT FROM
   KS/OK INTO THE OH VALLEY/SRN GREAT LAKES TO THE NERN STATES...AS A
   RIDGE REMAINS ANCHORED FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO INTO THE
   BAHAMAS/CARIBBEAN...AND A LARGE POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH AMPLIFIES
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL ROCKIES...NRN/CENTRAL PLAINS TO ONTARIO. 
   MEANWHILE...A PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DAMPEN DURING DAY 2
   AS IT TRACKS NEWD FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS OF WRN NEB INTO A
   CONFLUENT FLOW REGIME ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MODELS ARE
   TRENDING A LITTLE NWD WITH THE TRACK OF THIS TROUGH AND ATTENDANT
   SURFACE LOW WITH THESE FEATURES MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   BY TUESDAY EVENING.  THIS NWD TRACK IS RESULTING IN RELATIVELY
   BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE EWD AND SWD ADVANCEMENT OF THE TRAILING
   COLD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES/OH VALLEY AND MID MS VALLEY/SRN
   PLAINS...RESPECTIVELY.  THIS FRONT WILL EXTEND SWWD THROUGH CENTRAL
   IL/MO INTO CENTRAL OK TO THE TX PANHANDLE BY 04/00Z.  BY 12
   WEDNESDAY...THIS COLD FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM ERN NY/PA THROUGH THE
   CENTRAL/SRN APPALACHIANS...THEN WSWWD THROUGH NRN LA TO NRN OR
   CENTRAL TX. 

   ...LOWER MS/TN VALLEYS...
   LOW-LEVEL WAA MAY SUPPORT ELEVATED TSTMS TUESDAY MORNING ACROSS
   PARTS OF TN/KY...BUT OVERALL COVERAGE DUE TO MEAGER INSTABILITY IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A GENERAL TSTM AREA.  ALTHOUGH
   SSWLY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL AID IN MOISTENING THE WARM SECTOR FROM
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE TN VALLEY AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT...
   POOR LAPSE RATES...DUE IN PART TO WARMING 500-MB TEMPERATURES...WILL
   HINDER THE DEVELOPMENT OF STRONGER INSTABILITY.  DEEP-LAYER AND
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL BE ADEQUATE FOR STRONG TO SEVERE ORGANIZED
   STORMS.  HOWEVER...THE SPREAD INDICATED BY THE MODELS IN THE
   POTENTIAL FOR ANY STORMS TO BECOME SURFACE-BASED REMAINS LOW...WITH
   NO SEVERE PROBABILITIES INCLUDED AT THIS TIME.

   ...SRN AR/WRN LA INTO NRN/CENTRAL TX...
   AN INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL WAA ACROSS THIS REGION TUESDAY NIGHT AS A
   SLY LLJ STRENGTHENS SUGGESTS PARCELS LIFTED ISENTROPICALLY IN THE
   VICINITY OF THE SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A
   FEW ELEVATED TSTMS.

   ...ERN UT/WRN CO...
   COOLING MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH TRACKING SEWD FROM ID TO ERN UT/WRN CO TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON COULD PROVE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW TSTMS...AS LAPSE RATES
   STEEPEN.

   ..PETERS.. 03/02/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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