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Mar 23, 2018 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Mar 23 05:42:47 UTC 2018 (Print Version | 20180323 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180323 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 230542

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1242 AM CDT Fri Mar 23 2018

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   A few thunderstorms are possible Saturday primarily across the Ohio
   Valley and along the Pacific Northwest Coast during the day. Other
   thunderstorms might occur late Saturday night over a portion of the
   the southern and central High Plains.

   ...Ohio and Tennessee Valley regions...

   A low-amplitude shortwave trough will deamplify as it advances east
   through the OH and TN Valleys during the day. Lee cyclone attendant
   to this feature will weaken as it moves through KY and TN with warm
   front extending southeast from the low. The trailing cold front is
   forecast to stall near the TX/OK border. It is likely widespread
   showers and a few thunderstorms will be ongoing within zone of
   isentropic ascent and weak instability northeast of warm front
   across a part of the OH and TN Valleys. Other convection may occur
   farther south along warm conveyor belt. This activity will shift
   east during the day. While no severe weather is expected, a couple
   of instances of small hail cannot be ruled out, mainly early in the
   period from northeast MO into western IL.

   ...Pacific Northwest Coast...

   Steep lapse rates accompanying a shortwave trough will result in
   weak instability, primarily in post-frontal region near the coast.
   Showers and a few thunderstorms are likely to occur later Saturday
   afternoon and evening. 

   ...Southern and Central High Plains...

   Destabilization will occur Saturday night over the southern and
   central High Plains in response to theta-e advection along a
   southerly low level jet and beneath eastward expansion of steeper
   mid-level lapse rates. The atmosphere across much of this region
   will probably remain capped. However, persistent isentropic ascent
   north of warm front and downstream from a low-amplitude shortwave
   trough might contribute to development of a few elevated storms late
   in the period, especially from western OK into KS.

   ..Dial.. 03/23/2018



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