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Jul 2, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jul 2 05:48:03 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160702 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160702 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 020548

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT SAT JUL 02 2016

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MID
   MS/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SERN KS/NERN OK EWD ACROSS
   THE MID MS/LOWER OH/TN VALLEYS AND INTO THE CAROLINAS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A WEST-TO-EAST ZONE OF THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH EMBEDDED STRONG/SEVERE
   STORMS -- IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM THE OZARKS VICINITY EAST TO THE
   CAROLINAS AREA.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS MAY ALSO OCCUR OVER THE
   WESTERN DAKOTAS REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE UPPER LOWS/TROUGHS WILL REMAIN OVER WRN AND ERN CANADA THIS
   PERIOD...A LOWER-AMPLITUDE FLOW FIELD WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE U.S.
   ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THESE TWO FEATURES.  A SHORTER-WAVELENGTH
   TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL U.S. WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PRIMARY
   AREA OF CONVECTIVE/SEVERE RISK ACROSS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY
   REGION...WHILE A MORE NONDESCRIPT PATTERN PREVAILS OVER THE
   REMAINDER OF THE COUNTRY.

   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SEWD ACROSS THE
   PAC NW AS LOW PRESSURE SHIFTS OUT OF ALBERTA AND INTO SASKATCHEWAN
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  MEANWHILE...A WEAK/BROAD LOW OVER
   THE KS/OK VICINITY WILL ADVANCE EWD TOWARD IL THROUGH THE DAY...WITH
   A TRAILING COOL FRONT TO MOVE SEWD ACROSS SERN KS/OK/NRN AND WRN TX.
    MEANWHILE...WRN PORTIONS OF THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDING
   FROM THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE CAROLINAS WILL SHIFT NWD AS A WARM
   FRONT...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED SURFACE LOW MOVES INTO THE OH VALLEY
   REGION THROUGH THE SECOND HALF OF THE PERIOD. 

   ...THE OZARKS TO THE CAROLINAS...
   THE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY
   DURING THE AFTERNOON AND RESULTING ADVANCE OF A SURFACE LOW EWD
   ACROSS KY WILL RESULT IN NEWD EXPANSION OF A WARM SECTOR...FRAMED BY
   A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD ACROSS SERN KS/OK/N TX AND A WARM FRONT
   SHIFTING N OF THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO SRN PORTIONS OF IL/INDIANA
   DURING THE AFTERNOON.  DAYTIME HEATING WILL DRIVE DESTABILIZATION
   ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARIES...WITH ONGOING CONVECTION INVOF
   THE ADVANCING SURFACE LOW FORECAST TO INCREASE SUBSTANTIALLY IN
   COVERAGE/INTENSITY DURING THE AFTERNOON -- BOTH SWWD ACROSS THE
   OZARKS AND OK INTO NRN AND WRN TX...AS WELL AS EWD INVOF THE WARM
   FRONT ACROSS SRN IL/SWRN INDIANA.  

   WHILE WEAKER SHEAR WITH SWWD EXTENT SUGGESTS LESS-ORGANIZED STORMS
   AND DECREASING SEVERE PROBABILITY ACROSS OK AND INTO TX...A ZONE OF
   MORE SUBSTANTIAL SEVERE POTENTIAL STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO EVOLVE IN
   THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY VICINITY.  HERE...SLY TO SELY
   BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS NEAR AND AHEAD OF THE LOW BENEATH 40 TO 50 KT
   WLYS AT MID LEVELS RESULT IN SHEAR SUPPORTING ROTATING UPDRAFTS. 
   WHILE QUESTIONS REGARDING CLOUDS/ONGOING CONVECTION POSSIBLY
   HINDERING DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE LOW/INVOF THE WARM FRONT CAST
   UNCERTAINTY ON POTENTIAL COVERAGE OF MORE VIGOROUS
   UPDRAFTS...CLEARLY SOME POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STORMS CAPABLE OF
   PRODUCING HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS...AND EVEN A COUPLE OF TORNADOES
   IN AREAS E OF THE LOW WHERE BACKED FLOW YIELDS MORE FAVORABLE
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR.  ATTM...WILL MAINTAIN 15%/SLIGHT RISK...BUT HIGHER
   PROBS MAY BE REQUIRED IN SUBSEQUENT OUTLOOKS IF IT APPEARS THAT
   AMPLE AFTERNOON DESTABILIZATION CAN OCCUR ACROSS THE SRN IL/SRN
   IN/WRN KY VICINITY.  STORMS SHOULD CONTINUE/SPREAD EWD ACROSS THE OH
   VALLEY AREA...THOUGH MAINLY ELEVATED TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE WARM
   FRONT WHERE WEAKER INSTABILITY SUGGESTS DIMINISHING STORM INTENSITY
   OVERNIGHT.

   FARTHER ESE ACROSS PARTS OF KY/TN INTO THE CAROLINAS
   VICINITY...ISOLATED CONVECTION MAY DEVELOP INVOF THE REMNANT COLD
   FRONT...THOUGH NEUTRAL TO WEAKLY RISING MID-LEVEL HEIGHTS SUGGEST
   ONLY MODEST LARGE-SCALE ASCENT/VENTING.  WITH STRONGER FLOW ALOFT
   ALSO LIKELY TO BE CONFINED TO AREAS N OF THE FRONT...ANY SEVERE RISK
   WILL LIKELY REMAIN ISOLATED -- AND CONFINED TO LARGELY DISORGANIZED
   STORMS. 

   ...WRN DAKOTAS...
   THE TRAILING PORTION OF A VORT MAX CROSSING THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NRN HIGH PLAINS REGION SUN AFTERNOON...ATOP A
   LEE TROUGH PROGGED TO LIE N-S ACROSS THE REGION.  RESULTING FOCUSED
   ASCENT INVOF THE TROUGH COMBINED WITH MODESTLY MOIST/UNSTABLE
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD YIELD DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON.  WITH 25 KT MID-LEVEL WLYS ATOP S WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER RESULTING IN SHEAR POSSIBLY SUFFICIENT FOR WEAK UPDRAFT
   ORGANIZATION/ROTATION...A FEW INSTANCES OF HAIL/WIND GUSTS REACHING
   SEVERE LEVELS CAN BE EXPECTED BEFORE STORMS DIMINISH DURING THE
   EVENING.

   ..GOSS.. 07/02/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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