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May 23, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 23 17:22:15 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150523 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150523 1730Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 231722

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1222 PM CDT SAT MAY 23 2015

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN
   TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE CNTRL AND
   SRN PLAINS INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL LIKELY
   DEVELOP ACROSS NORTHERN INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS WHERE LARGE
   HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO CAN BE EXPECTED.
    ELSEWHERE...ISOLATED HAIL AND WIND MAY ACCOMPANY STORMS FROM
   PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE WRN AND CNTRL
   STATES WITH A LEADING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AFFECTING THE SRN PLAINS. AT
   THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN SITUATED OVER ERN CO WITH
   BROAD SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OVER THE SRN/CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE LOWER TO
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY MAINTAINING A MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS. THE SRN
   PLAINS SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED ENHANCED WIND FIELDS WILL BE THE
   FOCUS FOR AREAS OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...AS WELL AS
   ONGOING HEAVY RAINS. 

   TO THE N AND W OF THE MIDLEVEL JET AXIS...COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT
   WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS. SELY SURFACE WINDS WILL
   MAINTAIN A MOIST AIR MASS AS WELL...LEADING TO MODERATE DAYTIME
   INSTABILITY AND A THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS FROM ERN CO INTO
   WRN NEB/KS.

   ELSEWHERE...WIDESPREAD NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR BENEATH
   THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH OVER MUCH OF THE WRN STATES DURING THE
   DAYTIME.

   ...MUCH OF CNTRL AND ERN TX INTO FAR SRN OK...
   WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD ACROSS MOST OF ERN TX AS WELL AS ERN OK IN ASSOCIATION
   WITH A STRONG SLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND JUST AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE NEWD INTO AR AND LA
   WITH A CONTINUED HEAVY RAIN THREAT. GIVEN THE VERY MOIST AIR MASS
   AND MODERATE LEVELS OF LOW-LEVEL SHEAR...A FEW OF THE STRONGER
   STORMS MAY BE CAPABLE OF A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO ALTHOUGH TORNADO
   POTENTIAL WILL BE LOW OVERALL. STRONG TO PERHAPS SEVERE WINDS ARE
   ALSO POSSIBLE WITH THE LARGER CONVECTIVE SYSTEMS.

   LATER IN THE DAY...HEATING WILL OCCUR NEAR A DRYLINE WHICH SHOULD
   EXTEND FROM WRN OK SWD ACROSS CNTRL TX. INSTABILITY WILL BE STRONG
   DUE TO HIGH DEWPOINTS AND COOLER AIR ALOFT UNDER THE TROUGH
   AXIS...BUT COVERAGE OF DIURNAL DEVELOPMENT IS IN QUESTION AS THIS
   AREA WILL BE IN A ZONE OF GRADUAL HEIGHT RISES ALOFT. THE GREATEST
   THREAT OF ISOLATED SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO BE ALONG A
   POTENTIAL DRYLINE/OUTFLOW BOUNDARY INTERSECTION ACROSS NRN TX OR
   CLOSE TO THE RED RIVER. HERE...CONVERGENCE WILL BE MAXIMIZED...AS
   WILL LOW-LEVEL SHEAR. LARGE HAIL AND BRIEF TORNADOES ARE
   CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. OTHER ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE
   EXTENDING INTO SRN TX...BUT OVERALL PREDICTABILITY IS LOW AT THIS
   TIME GIVEN THE MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF ANTECEDENT CONVECTION EXPECTED AND
   THE EFFECTS OF THE EXITING SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   ...NERN CO...NWRN KS...WRN NEB...
   MODEL SOLUTIONS VARY REGARDING POTENTIAL INSTABILITY WITH THE NAM
   SHOWING UPPER 50S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS NWRN KS WHILE THE GFS SHOWS IT
   MIXED OUT IN THE SAME AREA. REGARDLESS OF EXACT PLACEMENT OF THE
   DRYLINE...AN AREA OF BACKED SFC WINDS N OF THE SFC LOW WILL MAINTAIN
   RELATIVELY MOIST/UNSTABLE CONDITIONS FROM NERN CO INTO WRN NEB.
   SHEAR PROFILES ARE GOING TO BE WEAK IN THE LOW TO MID LEVELS BUT A
   FEW SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL APPEAR LIKELY BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. AFOREMENTIONED UNCERTAINTIES WILL PRECLUDE A SLIGHT RISK
   AT THIS TIME.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/23/2015

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
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