Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Mar 23, 2017 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 23 17:48:49 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170323 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20170323 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 231748

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1248 PM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SOUTHEAST TEXAS TO THE LOWER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   SLIGHT RISK AREA FROM EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TO SOUTHEAST
   LOUISIANA AND SOUTH TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Wind damage, large hail, and a tornado threat are forecast Friday
   and Friday night across eastern portions of the southern and central
   Plains, Arklatex, and lower to mid Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper trough located over western portions of the central and
   southern Plains at 12Z Friday will advance east toward the lower and
   mid MS Valley this forecast period.  An embedded low centered near
   southwest KS is expected to remain closed Friday, though should
   weaken as it moves east reaching southwest MO/northwest AR area by
   12Z Saturday.  Meanwhile, a couple of midlevel impulses are expected
   to track through the base of the synoptic trough across
   south-central to southeast TX and the northwest Gulf of Mexico.  An
   embedded and cyclonically curved 80-100 kt 500-mb jet moving across
   parts of the central and southern Plains at 12Z Friday is expected
   to weaken some as the synoptic trough maintains a neutral
   orientation with eastward translation.  At the surface, a low should
   move east from southwest KS along the KS/OK border region into
   southwest MO by the end of the forecast period.  A dry line
   extending from the low into central OK and central TX will mix
   eastward and should be the primary focus for new thunderstorm
   development from eastern OK into east TX by late Friday morning and
   early afternoon.  Meanwhile, a cold front will advance east across
   the central and southern Plains Friday afternoon and overtake the
   dryline near the OK/AR border into northeast TX near or after
   25/00Z.  The cold front should then maintain an eastward movement
   toward the mid MS Valley to near the TX coast Friday night.  

   ...Southern and Central Plains/Arklatex/Lower to Mid MS Valley...
   Southerly low-level flow across the warm sector will maintain
   boundary layer moistening with surface dew points in the mid-upper
   50s reaching northeast OK to MO and the mid MS Valley, while values
   in the lower 60s spread into southeast OK and AR, and mid-upper 60s
   should remain from the TX coast to southern LA.  Showers and
   embedded thunderstorms located near and east of the dry line at 12Z
   Friday will spread east with associated cloudiness tending to limit
   greater destabilization until late morning or early afternoon.  At
   that time, steeper midlevel lapse rates spreading east atop the
   moisture return will result in MLCAPE of 1000-1500 J/kg from eastern
   OK into AR and south through LA to the middle and upper TX coast. 
   MLCAPE of 500-1000 J/kg are expected with northward extent into
   eastern KS and western MO.  

   The leading extent of stronger forcing for ascent with the upper
   trough/closed low and attendant 60-90 meter 12-hr height falls are
   expected to reach the dryline in eastern OK to parts of east TX by
   late morning or early afternoon, supporting an increase in
   thunderstorm development from eastern OK through east TX to near
   KAUS as the air mass destabilizes.  Strong bulk shear suggests all
   severe hazards will be possible with the initial storms along the
   dryline, though vectors oriented nearly parallel to the dry line
   suggests more of a linear storm mode.  A linear storm mode may be
   maintained with eastward extent, given surface dew points in the
   lower 60s that could limit destabilization across northern and
   eastern AR.  While these factors could limit the development of
   storm modes other than linear, a strengthening south-southwesterly
   low-level jet of 50-60 kt from the Arklatex into AR and northern LA
   could increase the damaging wind threat, and a greater tornado
   threat.  However, mixed messages in the model data results in lower
   forecast confidence that would warrant an enhanced severe risk. 
   Moderate instability persisting through Friday night from east TX
   through LA and perhaps southern AR suggests a continued threat for
   damaging winds as the cold front spreads east.

   Farther north, thunderstorms will be possible across eastern KS into
   western MO Friday afternoon/evening, where the likelihood for early
   day thunderstorms is less probable, and the air mass should become
   sufficiently unstable (MLCAPE 500-1000 J/kg).  Strong wind gusts and
   hail should be the primary threats across this portion of the
   marginal risk area.

   ..Peters.. 03/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: March 23, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities