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Nov 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 1 05:45:22 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20151101 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20151101 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 010545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT SUN NOV 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CNTRL GA TO MOST OF SC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND A TORNADO ARE POSSIBLE FROM CENTRAL
   GEORGIA ACROSS MOST OF SOUTH CAROLINA ON MONDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SHOULD DAMPEN AS IT PROGRESSES ACROSS THE DEEP
   SOUTH TO THE LOWER MID-ATLANTIC COAST THROUGH EARLY TUE. ASSOCIATED
   SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD UNDERGO CYCLOLYSIS AS IT SHIFTS FROM CNTRL AL
   TOWARDS SC ALONG A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT. IN THE WEST...A
   FULL-LATITUDE UPPER TROUGH SHOULD DEVELOP BY TUE MORNING AS A
   VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE IMPULSE REACHES THE SRN GREAT BASIN.

   ...CNTRL GA AND SC...
   WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SYSTEM WILL BE IN A DECAYING STATE...MODEL
   PROGS CONTINUE TO DIFFER WITH THE RATE OF DECAY. MOST PROGS MAINTAIN
   A BELT OF MODERATE TO STRONG LOW/MID-LEVEL SWLYS ACROSS THE NRN
   PERIPHERY OF UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S SURFACE DEW POINTS THROUGH MON
   EVENING. WITH PRONOUNCED DIFFERENTIAL HEATING PROGGED ALONG THE
   QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT...MODEST FORCING FOR ASCENT SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON.
   ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO SHOULD BE THE MAIN
   HAZARDS. POOR MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OWING TO RELATIVELY WARM
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAKENING CONVERGENCE ALONG
   THE COLD FRONT...SHOULD DETER SUSTENANCE OF STRONG CONVECTION WITH
   SRN EXTENT.

   ..GRAMS.. 11/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z

        
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Page last modified: November 01, 2015
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