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Jul 6, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 6 04:55:58 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150706 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150706 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 060455

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1155 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDELY SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE
   TUESDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION AND OHIO
   VALLEY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES MAY REMAIN AT LEAST BROADLY CYCLONIC
   EAST OF THE CANADIAN ROCKIES THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF CANADA AND
   ADJACENT NORTHERN U.S. BORDER AREAS TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. 
   WITHIN THIS REGIME...AT LEAST A COUPLE OF SHORT WAVE PERTURBATIONS
   WILL REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...INCLUDING ONE THAT IS STILL EXPECTED TO
   GRADUALLY PIVOT EAST NORTHEAST OF THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION. 
   THIS FEATURE MAY BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SLOWLY DEEPENING SURFACE LOW. 
   A TRAILING COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO ADVANCE ACROSS AND EAST OF THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION...WHILE STALLING ACROSS THE OHIO/MIDDLE
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEYS AND SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS AFTER ADVANCING INTO
   THOSE REGIONS.  THE FRONT MAY BE PRECEDED BY CONSIDERABLE CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
   THE OZARK PLATEAU.

   IN LOWER LATITUDES...THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF A BROAD CLOSED
   LOW...EMERGING FROM AN IMPULSE OF SUBTROPICAL EASTERN PACIFIC
   ORIGINS...IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY SPREAD INLAND ACROSS CALIFORNIA. 
   WITHIN THE DOWNSTREAM SUBTROPICAL WESTERLIES...WEAK MID/UPPER
   TROUGHING MAY EVOLVE ACROSS THE SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS... BUT
   LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WAVE AMPLIFICATION MOST EVIDENT IN THE
   DETERMINISTIC MODEL OUTPUT MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTIVE
   FEEDBACK.  MEANWHILE...FARTHER EAST...SUBTROPICAL RIDGING CENTERED
   OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST MAY BEGIN TO BUILD WESTWARD...WITH
   MODEST STRENGTHENING ACROSS MUCH OF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC AND GULF
   COAST STATES.

   ...LOWER GREAT LAKES/OHIO VALLEY REGION...
   THERMODYNAMIC PROFILES WITHIN A PRE-FRONTAL CORRIDOR OF SEASONABLY
   HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT /PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES AND 70+ F
   SURFACE DEW POINTS/ ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHARACTERIZED BY RELATIVELY
   WARM MID-LEVELS...WITH GENERALLY WEAK LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC LAPSE
   RATES.  ONLY SEASONABLY MODEST BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS
   EXPECTED...AND THIS STILL SEEMS LIKELY TO LIMIT MIXED LAYER CAPE TO
   AROUND 1000-2000 J/KG.  FURTHERMORE...STRONGER WESTERLY MID/UPPER
   FLOW FIELDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE SURFACE
   FRONT TO THE SOUTH OF THE CANADIAN BORDER.  DESPITE THESE
   LIMITATIONS... DESTABILIZATION AND FORCING FOR ASCENT ARE EXPECTED
   TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT CONSIDERABLE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AND IT IS POSSIBLE THAT HEAVY
   PRECIPITATION LOADING...AND DOWNWARD MIXING OF 20-30+ KT PRE-FRONTAL
   SOUTHWESTERLY 850 MB FLOW...COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE RISK FOR
   POTENTIALLY DAMAGING SURFACE GUSTS IN THE STRONGER CONVECTION.

   ..KERR.. 07/06/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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