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Aug 27, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Aug 27 06:01:26 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140827 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140827 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 270601

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0101 AM CDT WED AUG 27 2014

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL UNITED STATES THURSDAY...WITH AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
   EVIDENT FROM THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS EAST-NORTHEASTWARD
   INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   WHILE THE FASTER/MORE AMPLIFIED BELT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW WILL REMAIN
   CONFINED TO CANADA AND THE ADJACENT/FAR NRN PORTIONS OF THE
   CONUS...THE MAIN SYSTEM AFFECTING THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST WILL BE
   THE WEAK TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND SHIFTING INTO THE PLAINS. 
   THOUGH THE CYCLONIC FLOW FIELD ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
   REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT -- FOCUSED INVOF A COOL
   FRONT SHIFTING SEWD ACROSS THE PLAINS -- WILL SUPPORT ONGOING
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THOUGH THE PERIOD.

   ...SRN WI/NRN IL SWWD INTO THE CENTRAL AND SRN HIGH PLAINS...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE DAY
   2 PERIOD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL U.S. -- PARTICULARLY INVOF
   THE SERN SD/SRN MN/ERN NEB/IA VICINITY WHERE LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION WILL BE MAXIMIZED.  WITH TIME...THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
   SHOULD SPREAD ENEWD AND WEAKEN...FOLLOWED BY NEW/AFTERNOON
   CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT -- BOTH ACROSS ERN CO NEAR THE UPPER TROUGH
   AXIS...AS WELL AS FROM IA SWWD INTO THE TX PANHANDLE VICINITY INVOF
   THE WEAK COOL FRONT ADVANCING SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH A DESTABILIZING
   AIRMASS.  

   SEVERE RISK ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEVELOPING DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD
   REMAIN GENERALLY LIMITED IN MOST AREAS...GIVEN THE RELATIVELY WEAK
   FLOW EXPECTED /20 TO 30 KT SWLY FLOW AT H5 ATOP MODEST LOW-LEVEL
   SLYS/.  WHILE AN AREA OR TWO OF SOMEWHAT GREATER RISK WILL LIKELY
   EVOLVE...IT APPEARS ATTM THAT SUCH AREAS MAY BE TIED TO BOTH SUBTLE
   RIPPLES IN THE UPPER FLOW FIELD EJECTING AHEAD OF THE MAIN TROUGH
   AXIS...AS WELL AS BOUNDARIES FROM PRIOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. 
   THUS...WILL MAINTAIN ONLY A BROAD/LOW-PROBABILITY RISK AREA
   ATTM...WITH ANY UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK IN SOME PORTION OF THIS LEFT
   FOR LATER FORECASTS WHEN DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.

   ..GOSS.. 08/27/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 27, 2014
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