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Jul 31, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 31 05:34:41 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140731 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140731 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 310534

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 AM CDT THU JUL 31 2014

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH PERHAPS A MARGINAL HAIL THREAT WILL OCCUR ACROSS
   THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FROM GEORGIA INTO THE CAROLINAS
   DURING THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STATIONARY UPPER TROUGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE ERN CONUS PROVIDING
   COOL AIR ALOFT AND MAXIMIZING INSTABILITY DESPITE RELATIVELY LOW
   DEWPOINTS. THE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND HEATING WILL LEAD TO A WEAK
   SURFACE TROUGH FROM MN INTO LOWER MI BY AFTERNOON WHERE SCATTERED
   STORMS WILL BE FOCUSED. ANOTHER SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM GA
   INTO THE CAROLINAS WITH FLOW OFF THE ATLANTIC MAINTAINING HIGHER
   DEWPOINTS. 

   ELSEWHERE...MONSOONAL STORMS WILL PERSIST ACROSS MUCH OF THE W
   BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE...WITH ISOLATED STORMS OVER OREGON UNDER THE
   INFLUENCE OF WEAK UPPER TROUGHING.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...
   STRONG HEATING BENEATH COOL PROFILES ALOFT WILL RESULT IN STEEP
   LAPSE RATES AND AN UNCAPPED ATMOSPHERE SUPPORTING SMALL BUT VIGOROUS
   AFTERNOON UPDRAFTS. DEWPOINTS WILL REMAIN IN THE 50S F WHICH SHOULD
   FAVOR MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL PRODUCTION DESPITE WEAK WIND PROFILES
   AND DISORGANIZED STORM MODE. ANY HAIL THREAT WILL WANE WITH LOSS OF
   HEATING.

   ...GA INTO THE CAROLINAS...
   LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BACK WWD OFF THE ATLANTIC WITH UPPER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS COMMON. HEATING WILL LEAD TO AROUND 1500 J/KG MLCAPE BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON. WEAK LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE AND UPSLOPE SHOULD HELP
   TO PRODUCE A FEW CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS. HAIL MAY APPROACH 1.00
   INCH DIAMETER...WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS. VEERING WIND PROFILES WITH
   HEIGHT WOULD ORDINARILY SUPPORT SOME ROTATING CELLS...BUT SHEAR
   MAGNITUDES WILL BE WEAK.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: July 31, 2014
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