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Sep 27, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 27 06:00:55 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160927 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160927 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 270600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT TUE SEP 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   INTO EASTERN VA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CAROLINAS INTO EASTERN VIRGINIA ON WEDNESDAY.

   ...CAROLINAS AND VA/GA...
   A DEEP/PERSISTENT CLOSED LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   AND ONTARIO SHOULD CONTINUE TO SETTLE SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE
   OH/TN VALLEYS TOWARD THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS ON
   WEDNESDAY. GENERAL NUMERICAL GUIDANCE TRENDS OVER THE PAST 24-48
   HOURS HAVE BEEN FOR A SLOWER EASTWARD FRONTAL PROGRESSION EAST OF
   THE APPALACHIANS...WITH A PROBABLE STALL OR EVEN A WEST/NORTH
   RETREAT ON WEDNESDAY IN RESPONSE TO THE DIGGING UPPER SYSTEM. THIS
   SCENARIO SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE INLAND-EXTENSIVE WARM/MOIST SECTOR
   ACROSS THE PIEDMONT/COASTAL AREAS OF THE REGION...WITH UPPER
   60S/NEAR 70 F DEWPOINTS EXPECTED NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT. A KEY
   THERMODYNAMIC-RELATED UNCERTAINTY APPEARS TO BE THE POSSIBILITY OF
   SCATTERED EARLY-DAY PRECIPITATION...ALTHOUGH LOCALLY MODERATE
   DESTABILIZATION /1500+ J PER KG MLCAPE/ IS PLAUSIBLE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON NEAR/EAST OF THE FRONT AND A RELATED WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. 

   UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRENGTHENING/BACKING WINDS ALOFT AND
   SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS...AT LEAST AN ISOLATED SEVERE RISK MAY EXIST
   PENDING SUFFICIENT WARM-SECTOR DESTABILIZATION. DAMAGING WINDS WOULD
   BE THE MOST PROBABLE SEVERE HAZARD...ALTHOUGH SOME TORNADO POTENTIAL
   MAY ALSO EXIST...PARTICULARLY BY LATE AFTERNOON INTO EVENING GIVEN
   GUIDANCE DEPICTIONS OF BACKING/STRENGTHENING SOUTH-SOUTHEASTERLY
   WINDS WITHIN THE LOWEST 1-2 KM AGL. MARGINAL PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY
   APPEAR PRUDENT GIVEN SOME FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES...BUT A CATEGORICAL
   SLIGHT-RISK UPGRADE COULD ULTIMATELY BE WARRANTED.

   ..GUYER.. 09/27/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 27, 2016
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