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Aug 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 26 05:43:34 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160826 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160826 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260543

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1243 AM CDT FRI AUG 26 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN PARTS OF THE NRN
   PLAINS SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
   BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE NORTHERN PLAINS AND UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL AMPLIFY AND MOVE EWD ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS
   ON SATURDAY. AT THE SFC...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE FROM ERN
   PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES
   REGION. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS RELATED TO WARM ADVECTION SHOULD BE
   ONGOING ACROSS PARTS OF THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY DURING
   THE MORNING. AREAS THAT REMAIN FREE OF CONVECTION DURING THE MORNING
   AND EARLY AFTERNOON WILL HAVE THE GREATEST POTENTIAL TO DESTABILIZE.
   FOR THIS REASON...MODEL FORECASTS SUGGEST THAT THE INSTABILITY FIELD
   ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WILL BE QUITE VARIABLE
   SUGGESTING UNCERTAINTY WITH SATURDAYS FORECAST REMAINS SUBSTANTIAL.
   THE CURRENT THINKING IS THAT TWO AREAS OF MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE FIRST AREA WOULD BE ALONG
   AND JUST AHEAD OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH FROM FAR SE ND SEWD ACROSS
   CNTRL AND SRN MN. COLD AIR ALOFT AND MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WOULD
   BE MOST FAVORABLE FOR HAIL FORMATION WITHIN THE STRONGER MULTICELLS.
   THE SECOND AREA WOULD BE IN ERN IA...NW IL AND SW WI ALONG THE
   CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST LOW-LEVEL FLOW. AREAS IN THE UPPER MS VALLEY
   WHERE LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES CAN STEEPEN SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR
   STRONG WIND GUSTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/26/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 26, 2016
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