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Apr 30, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 30 05:45:13 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160430 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160430 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 300545

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1245 AM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SOUTH TX THROUGH THE TN/OH
   VALLEY INTO THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP FROM
   PORTIONS OF TEXAS...INTO THE OHIO VALLEY...AND PORTIONS OF THE
   MIDDLE ATLANTIC.

   ...DISCUSSION...

   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT INTO THE MID-MS
   VALLEY BY SUNRISE SUNDAY MORNING.  500MB FLOW ON THE ORDER OF 60KT
   IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE ACROSS MO INTO SRN IL/INDIANA DURING THE
   PEAK OF THE CONVECTIVE CYCLE ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  WHILE DEEP-LAYER
   FLOW IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN DECIDEDLY WLY...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR
   SUPPORTS ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS FOR CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ALONG
   SYNOPTIC FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY.  GUSTY WINDS/HAIL ARE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   FARTHER SOUTH...WEAK 12HR MID-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST ACROSS
   THE SRN PLAINS/LOWER MS VALLEY ALONG COLD FRONT THAT WILL TRAIL FROM
   THE BOOTHEEL OF MO...SWWD INTO SCNTRL TX.  BROAD SWLY FLOW AT MID
   LEVELS WILL ENHANCE SHEAR ACROSS THIS REGION BUT LARGE-SCALE FORCING
   APPEARS TO BE NEUTRAL IN THE ABSENCE OF IDENTIFIABLE SHORT
   WAVE-TROUGHS.  BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING AND FRONTAL CONVERGENCE APPEAR
   TO BE THE PRIMARY MECHANISMS FOR CONVECTIVE INITIATION.  OF SOME
   CONCERN WILL BE TSTM ACTIVITY THAT EVOLVES ACROSS SWRN TX/NRN
   MEXICO...AIDED IN PART BY TOPOGRAPHY.  SHEAR PROFILES FAVOR
   SUPERCELLS AND STORM MOTIONS SUGGEST CONVECTION THAT FORMS OVER NRN
   MEXICO COULD SPREAD INTO SCNTRL TX.  ADDITIONALLY...STRONGEST SFC
   HEATING IS EXPECTED ALONG THE FRONT ACROSS NRN MEXICO WHICH SHOULD
   HELP INITIATE STORMS.  HAIL IS EXPECTED WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..DARROW.. 04/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 30, 2016
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