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Apr 18, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 18 05:55:32 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140418 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140418 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 180446

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT THU APR 17 2014

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE NOTED EARLY IN THE PERIOD ALONG THE
   EAST COAST OF FLORIDA AND PARTS OF GEORGIA AND SOUTH CAROLINA. 
   OTHERWISE...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE AFTERNOON
   AND INTO THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...SERN U.S...

   BOTH THE NAM AND GFS AGREE THAT SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW WILL SHIFT OFF
   THE SERN COAST BY 20/00Z.  DESPITE THE SLOW MOVING SYSTEM IT APPEARS
   SIGNIFICANT DRYING WILL SURGE ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA EARLY IN THE
   PERIOD AND THE PRIMARY ZONE OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO
   ADVANCE TO NEAR THE EAST COAST BY DAY BREAK SUNDAY.  RESULTANT DEEP
   CONVECTION SHOULD BE PRIMARILY OFFSHORE BY 19/12Z.  FOR THIS REASON
   HAVE LOWERED SEVERE PROBS ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA.  HOWEVER...POCKET
   OF COLD MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES WILL SHIFT ACROSS GA/SC DURING THE
   DAY IF THE MORE NLY GFS IS ACCURATE.  STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT WITH
   500MB TEMPERATURES ON THE ORDER OF -16C SHOULD PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS BENEATH THE UPPER LOW.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN ROCKIES INTO THE MID MO VALLEY...

   VERY WEAK MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL SPREAD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
   FROM FAR WEST TX INTO NEB DURING THE AFTERNOON SATURDAY AHEAD OF LOW
   LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH OVER THE SWRN U.S.  COOL MID-LEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE SWRN U.S. INTO THE
   SRN/CNTRL ROCKIES SUCH THAT LAPSE RATES WILL BECOME FAVORABLE FOR
   AFTERNOON CONVECTION AIDED IN LARGE PART BY BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING. 
   TOTAL MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUITE SPARSE ACROSS THE
   HIGH PLAINS WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE LIKELY REMAINING ACROSS
   NERN MEXICO/LOWER RIO GRAND RIVER VALLEY.  WHILE A FEW ROBUST STORMS
   MAY ULTIMATELY EVOLVE ACROSS FAR WEST TX WHERE FAVORABLE VEERING
   WIND PROFILES WITH HEIGHT COULD ENHANCE LONGEVITY OF UPDRAFTS...THE
   PROSPECT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE IS FAIRLY LOW GIVEN PW VALUES AOB 0.75
   INCHES.

   FARTHER NORTH...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL ENHANCE UVV ALONG
   SW-NE BOUNDARY DRAPED FROM NWRN KS ACROSS SRN NEB INTO SERN MN. 
   DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TOWARD CONVECTIVE INITIATION BY
   LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.  THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD
   SPREAD/DEVELOP NEWD INTO THE MID MO VALLEY AFTER DARK.  MARGINAL
   MOISTURE CONTENT SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE THREAT ALONG THIS CORRIDOR.

   ..DARROW.. 04/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 18, 2014
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