Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Apr 18, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 18 05:37:04 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150418 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150418 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 180537

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1237 AM CDT SAT APR 18 2015

   VALID 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF AR...NRN LA AND
   WCNTRL MS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY AND GULF
   COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...TN VALLEY...GULF COAST
   STATES AND CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM
   EASTERN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS EASTWARD TO THE CENTRAL GULF
   COAST STATES ON SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND-DAMAGE
   POTENTIAL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   SOUTHEASTWARD INTO THE WESTERN CAROLINAS AND EASTERN GULF COAST
   STATES ON SUNDAY.

   ...ARKLATEX/OZARKS/LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY/TN VALLEY...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
   SUNDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SEWD INTO THE OZARKS AND ARKLATEX.
   AHEAD OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S
   F ACROSS MUCH OF LA...MS AND SRN AR. AS A RESULT...MODERATE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE IN PLACE BY MIDDAY FROM EAST TX EWD ACROSS LA
   AND SRN AR INTO MS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD TAKE
   PLACE ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR DURING THE AFTERNOON AS A LOW-LEVEL JET
   STRENGTHENS ACROSS THE OZARKS AS IS DEPICTED BY THE GFS SOLUTION. AS
   STORMS INCREASE IN COVERAGE LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...THE DEVELOPMENT
   OF AN MCS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/MONDAY FROM NRN LA EWD TO JACKSON MS
   SHOW AN IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT WITH MLCAPE RANGING
   FROM 2000 TO 3000 J/KG AND STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM THE SFC TO ABOVE
   700 MB. IN ADDITION...0-6 KM SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 45 TO 50
   KT RANGE WHICH SHOULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELLS WITH
   LARGE HAIL. A COUPLE TORNADOES MAY OCCUR WITH THE MORE DOMINANT
   SUPERCELLS LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A TRANSITION TO LINEAR
   MODE COULD TAKE PLACE AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS WITH THE PRIMARY THREAT
   BECOMING WIND DAMAGE. THIS WOULD ESPECIALLY BE THE CASE IF A COLD
   POOL CAN ORGANIZE ACROSS THE OZARKS AND MOVE SEWD INTO THE LOWER MS
   AND TN VALLEYS. A SEVERE THREAT COULD EXTEND SWWD AS FAR AS SE TX
   BUT CAPPING SHOULD MAKE THE THREAT MORE ISOLATED WITH SWWD EXTENT.

   ...SRN OH VALLEY/SRN APPALACHIANS/WRN CAROLINAS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
   SUNDAY AS A SFC LOW MOVES NNEWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY. A BROAD ZONE
   OF STRONGER LOW-LEVEL WINDS IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM THE OH
   VALLEY SEWD INTO THE CAROLINAS. AS SFC TEMPS WARM DURING THE
   DAY...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD OCCUR.
   FORECAST SOUNDINGS FROM LEXINGTON KY SEWD INTO THE SRN APPALACHIANS
   SC AT 00Z/MONDAY SHOW MLCAPE IN THE 100O T0 1200 J/KG RANGE WITH 0-6
   KM SHEAR OF 40 TO 45 KT. THIS COMBINED WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND
   PROFILES ABOVE THE BOUNDARY LAYER COULD SUPPORT A MARGINAL WIND
   DAMAGE-THREAT WITH CELLS THAT CAN ORGANIZE INTO CLUSTERS AND PERSIST
   THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.

   ..BROYLES.. 04/18/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: April 18, 2015
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities