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Aug 1, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Aug 1 05:48:38 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150801 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150801 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 010548

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1248 AM CDT SAT AUG 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE UPPER
   MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION INTO THE UPPER MIDWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   SYNOPTIC PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
   ERN U.S. WITH A CORRESPONDING RIDGE OVER THE WRN STATES. CURRENT
   INDICATIONS ARE THAT A MORE SIGNIFICANT SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE
   THROUGH THE BASE OF THE LARGE-SCALE TROUGH AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES AREA LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. A WARM FRONT SHOULD
   ADVANCE FARTHER NORTHEAST INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...WHILE A COLD
   FRONT MOVES SEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND EVENTUALLY INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES AREA.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST THROUGH GREAT LAKES REGION...

   THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE IN PROGRESS BY 12Z SUNDAY OVER A PORTION OF THE
   UPPER MIDWEST INTO THE GREAT LAKES WITHIN ZONE OF ISENTROPIC ASCENT
   NORTH AND EAST OF WARM FRONT. DETAILS REGARDING EXTENT AND EVOLUTION
   OF THE MORNING STORMS REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCLEAR AND IS THE PRIMARY
   COMPLICATING FACTOR FOR THIS OUTLOOK...BUT ACTIVITY SHOULD SHIFT EWD
   WITH TIME. FARTHER UPSTREAM OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND GREAT LAKES
   IN WAKE OF EARLY STORMS...THE WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME
   MODERATELY TO STRONGLY UNSTABLE WHERE ERN EXTENSION OF EML OVERLAPS
   MOIST AXIS AND WHERE SOME DIABATIC WARMING MAY OCCUR. HOWEVER...THE
   EML MAY SERVE TO CAP THE BOUNDARY LAYER WITH WWD AND SWD EXTENT INTO
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY REGION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
   REDEVELOP OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
   SEWD-ADVANCING COLD FRONT. ACTIVITY WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP SEWD
   WITH TIME...POSSIBLY GROWING UPSCALE INTO AN MCS AIDED BY A WSWLY
   LLJ THAT MAY STRENGTHEN WITHIN ZONE OF HEIGHT FALLS IN ADVANCE OF
   THE PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. 0-6 KM VERTICAL SHEAR FROM 30-40
   KT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH PRIMARY
   THREATS BEING DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL.

   ..DIAL.. 08/01/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 01, 2015
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