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May 25, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed May 25 05:50:27 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160525 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160525 0600Z Day 2 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250550

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1250 AM CDT WED MAY 25 2016

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM SRN NEB AND KS SWD INTO
   WRN OK...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR A LARGE PORTION OF THE
   CNTRL-SRN PLAINS INTO IA/MO...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK AND
   EWD INTO THE SWRN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH LARGE HAIL...WIND DAMAGE AND A FEW
   TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE
   LOWER TO MID MISSOURI VALLEY. OTHER MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS WITH
   HAIL AND STRONG WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID TO
   UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHWESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A LARGE-SCALE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE FOUR CORNERS WILL SHIFT EWD
   ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  A LEAD DISTURBANCE
   WILL MOVE ACROSS TX DURING THE DAY AND INTO THE ARKLATEX WITH THE
   PRIMARY BELT OF STRONGER FLOW H5 FLOW REMAINING NEAR THE DRYLINE WWD
   INTO W TX AND ERN NM DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE.  A SURFACE
   LOW INVOF SWRN KS WILL MOVE LITTLE DURING THE PERIOD WITH AN
   ATTENDANT NORTH-SOUTH DRYLINE.  A FRONT WILL EXTEND NNEWD FROM THE
   CNTRL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.  

   ...CNTRL KS/OK/TX...
   SLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW AND RICH MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM NWD
   INTO THE SRN-CNTRL PLAINS.  FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONGST MODEL
   GUIDANCE INDICATES A LOW-AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS
   S-CNTRL INTO ERN PARTS OF TX DURING THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS
   WITH MODULATIONS OF THE WIND PROFILE AS FAR N AS OK DURING THE DAY. 
   A DEVELOPING CLUSTER OF SHOWERS/STORMS WILL SEEMINGLY EXPAND EARLY
   ACROSS CNTRL-ERN TX AMIDST A BUOYANT AIRMASS WITH ADEQUATE SHEAR FOR
   SOME STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE PRIMARILY OF AN ISOLD
   HAIL/WIND-DAMAGE THREAT.  

   THE FOCUS FOR MORE INTENSE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WILL SHIFT
   FARTHER W NEAR AND E OF THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON.  INCREASING
   FORCING FOR ASCENT OVERSPREADING A DESTABILIZING/MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER /LOWEST 100-MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS 13-16 G PER KG/ WILL
   CONTRIBUTE TO MODERATE TO VERY STRONG BUOYANCY /1500-3500 J PER KG
   MLCAPE/.  THE WIND PROFILE ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEAD DISTURBANCE AND
   UPPER-LEVEL BACKING ARE RESULTING IN SOME PROGGED WEAKNESSES THAT
   WILL PROBABLY PLAY A ROLE IN STORM LONGEVITY/INTENSITY. 
   NONETHELESS...A WIND PROFILE SUPPORTIVE OF SEVERE STORMS /INCLUDING
   SUPERCELLS/ WILL FACILITATE THE DEVELOPMENT OF A LARGE TO VERY
   LARGE-HAIL THREAT...ISOLD SEVERE GUSTS...AND THE POSSIBILITY FOR A
   COUPLE OF TORNADOES TOWARDS EVENING AS THE LLJ STRENGTHENS AND
   HODOGRAPHS ENLARGE.  A STORM CLUSTER OR TWO COULD EVOLVE PERHAPS
   NEAR THE RED RIVER OVERNIGHT WITH A LINGERING HAIL/WIND THREAT INTO
   THE EARLY HOURS FRIDAY.

   ...CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MIDWEST...
   A WEAKENING CLUSTER OF TSTMS MAY BE ONGOING THURSDAY MORNING ACROSS
   THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH IT PERHAPS POSING AN ISOLD STRONG TO SEVERE
   RISK. AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY FROM THIS ACTIVITY MAY ARC WWD INTO THE
   CNTRL PLAINS WHERE STRONG HEATING IS FORECAST TO STRONGLY
   DESTABILIZE THE BOUNDARY LAYER.  ELY MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW N OF THE LOW
   IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS AND CLOSER PROXIMITY TO H5 HEIGHT FALLS /30
   M PER 12 HR/ WILL PROBABLY LEAD TO ISOLD-SCTD STORMS DEVELOPING BY
   EARLY AFTERNOON OVER ERN CO AND DEVELOPING NEWD NEAR THE FRONT.
   STEEP LAPSE RATES COUPLED WITH A VEERING/STRENGTHENING WIND PROFILE
   WITH HEIGHT WILL FAVOR STORM ORGANIZATION AND ROTATION WITH THE
   STRONGER UPDRAFTS.  RELATIVELY BACKED LOW-LEVEL FLOW NE OF THE
   SURFACE LOW MAY YIELD A PERIOD WHEN SRH INCREASES INTO THE 200-300
   M2/S2 RANGE WITH A QUASI-DISCRETE MODE AND SOME LOW-LEVEL
   MESOCYCLONE ENHANCEMENT PRIOR TO THE TERMINUS OF A SLY LLJ BECOMING
   FOCUSED OVER THE CNTRL PLAINS DURING THE EVENING AND LIKELY LEADING
   TO UPSCALE GROWTH OF A TSTM CLUSTER NEAR THE NEB/KS BORDER.  AS THE
   LLJ STRENGTHENS AND VEERS DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT...THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE LOWER MO VALLEY WITH AN ATTENDANT
   RISK FOR ISOLD LARGE HAIL/DMGG WINDS.  STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE
   STORMS MAY DEVELOP AS FAR E AS THE MID MS VALLEY OVERNIGHT THURSDAY.

   ..SMITH.. 05/25/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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