Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 1 Outlook   Day 3 Outlook >
Jul 26, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 26 05:51:31 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160726 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160726 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 260551

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT TUE JUL 26 2016

   VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE MID-MO VALLEY INTO
   PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND NRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF SRN VA AND NRN
   NC...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE GREAT
   PLAINS AND THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL GRADUALLY AMPLIFY ACROSS THE MID-MS VALLEY
   INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES...LOOSELY ASSOCIATED WITH A DEEP-LAYER
   LOW OVER EASTERN CANADA. A SEPARATE MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE
   ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...ALONG THE NERN
   PERIPHERY OF ANTICYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT CENTERED OVER THE WRN GREAT
   BASIN. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY SPREAD SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE
   DAKOTAS AND NORTHERN MINNESOTA...WHILE A WEAK NEARLY STATIONARY
   FRONT EXTENDS FROM THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION WWD INTO THE CNTRL
   PLAINS.

   ...MID-MO VALLEY INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS...
   EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN BY THE EARLY PORTION
   OF THE WED/D2 PERIOD...AND A BOUNDARY /POTENTIALLY MODIFIED BY
   CONVECTION/ SHOULD EXTEND FROM SERN SD SWWD INTO NERN CO BY LATE
   MORNING. RESERVOIR OF LOW 60S F DEWPOINTS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE
   MID-MO VALLEY INTO ERN PORTIONS OF NEB/KS...WITH DRIER LOW-LEVEL AIR
   /50S F DEWPOINTS/ EXTENDING TO THE W AND N INTO THE NRN HIGH PLAINS.
   TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES REMAINS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...BUT
   GENERAL CONSENSUS IS A MIDLEVEL SPEED MAX WILL MOVE INTO THE CNTRL
   HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON...AND ENCOURAGE TSTM DEVELOPMENT
   ALONG THE BOUNDARY ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL NEB. DESPITE WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   WINDS...NWLY MIDLEVEL FLOW SHOULD BE SUFFICIENT /20-30 KT/ TO
   SUPPORT EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE CLUSTERS PROPAGATING GENERALLY SEWD
   INTO ERN NEB AND NRN KS DURING THE EVENING. GIVEN UNCERTAINTY
   RELATED TO THE TIMING OF IMPULSES...AND SOMEWHAT MARGINAL
   BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS TOO LOW FOR SLIGHT RISK
   DELINEATION ATTM.

   ADDITIONAL TSTMS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME ALONG THE
   FRONT RANGE INTO THE PARTS OF SERN MT. A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND/OR SMALL HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH CONVECTION ACROSS THE
   CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS.

   ...SRN VA AND NRN NC...
   A BAND OF MODERATE WLYS ALOFT /20-25 KT AT 500 MB/ WILL PERSIST
   ALONG THE SRN PERIPHERY OF AN ERN CANADA TROUGH ACROSS THE CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION. RICH MOISTURE WILL BE IN
   PLACE TO THE S OF A STALLED BOUNDARY ACROSS SRN VA...AND STRONG
   DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD YIELD MLCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 2000
   J/KG...DESPITE RELATIVELY WARM MID-TROPOSPHERIC TEMPERATURE
   PROFILES. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO SUSTAIN A FEW
   MULTICELL CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF DMGG WIND GUSTS FROM THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN EWD TO THE COAST.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/26/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: July 26, 2016
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities