Aug 29, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 29 05:46:52 UTC 2016 (20160829 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160829 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160829 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 97,460 10,682,774 Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160829 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 97,327 10,726,528 Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
   SPC AC 290546

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CDT MON AUG 29 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF MID MO
   VALLEY...UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN GREAT LAKES REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE THREAT MAY DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE MID MISSOURI VALLEY EAST NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...MID MO VALLEY/UPPER MS VALLEY/WRN GREAT LAKES...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ESEWD ACROSS THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO
   ADVANCE SSEWD ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY REACHING NRN
   LAKE MICHIGAN EXTENDING WSWWD INTO CNTRL WI AND FAR NRN IA BY LATE
   AFTERNOON. ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE FRONT...SFC DEWPOINTS SHOULD BE IN
   THE MID TO UPPER 60S F WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF
   A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN NRN IA
   AND SRN WI VALID AT 00Z/WED SHOW MLCAPE VALUES MOSTLY IN THE 1000 TO
   1500 J/KG RANGE WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES FROM JUST ABOVE THE SFC TO
   AROUND 700 MB. IN SPITE OF RELATIVELY WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WITH 0-6
   KM SHEAR NEAR OR BELOW 20 KT...THIS THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ALONG
   WITH THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A
   MARGINAL WIND DAMAGE AND/OR HAIL THREAT LATE TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

   FURTHER SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY AND CNTRL
   PLAINS...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SCATTERED CONVECTION
   WILL DEVELOP ACROSS A BROAD AREA TUESDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY
   AFTERNOON. IF THIS OCCURS...THEN MUCH OF THE CNTRL PLAINS AND MID MS
   VALLEY REGIONS COULD HAVE TROUBLE DESTABILIZING. FOR THIS
   REASON...WILL CONFINE THE MARGINAL RISK AREA TO AREAS FURTHER NORTH
   IN PARTS OF THE MID MO VALLEY ENEWD INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY.

   ..BROYLES.. 08/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z