Jul 30, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jul 30 05:39:41 UTC 2015 (20150730 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150730 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150730 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 104,406 6,645,482 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Springfield, IL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150730 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 102,901 6,463,560 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...Springfield, IL...
   SPC AC 300539

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL
   PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS AND MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS INTO THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY...IN BETWEEN AN EXPANSIVE UPPER
   LEVEL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES/PLAINS AND AN UPPER LEVEL
   TROUGH VICINITY OF HUDSON BAY. A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL EXTEND FROM
   THE GREAT LAKES WEST TO THE CENTRAL PLAINS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...CENTRAL PLAINS/MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
   ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ALONG A
   SOUTHEAST-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT WILL EXTEND FROM LOWER MICHIGAN
   WEST TO NEBRASKA FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH DEW
   POINTS IN THE MID-UPPER 60S SHOULD RESULT IN MODERATE SURFACE-BASED
   INSTABILITY BY LATE AFTERNOON. WITH VEERED LOW-LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AND THE LACK OF LARGE-SCALE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD BE ISOLATED/WIDELY SCATTERED IN
   COVERAGE. NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW AVERAGING 30-40 KTS WILL
   RESULT IN SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR SEVERE STORMS WITH A RISK FOR
   DAMAGING WINDS AND SEVERE HAIL DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING.

   ...SOUTHEAST STATES...
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG A SLOW-MOVING FRONTAL BOUNDARY
   WITHIN A VERY MOIST AIR MASS /PRECIPITABLE WATER 2-2.25 INCHES/
   FRIDAY AFTERNOON. DOWNBURST WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGEST STORMS NEAR THE FRONT AND SEA BREEZE. WITH POOR LAPSE
   RATES...WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...AND POSSIBLE INFLUENCE OF
   THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY...WILL NOT INTRODUCE SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   WITH THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..BUNTING.. 07/30/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z