SPC AC 220559
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1259 AM CDT WED MAY 22 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE TX PANHANDLE
   VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED EWD PROGRESSION OF THE LARGE-SCALE ERN U.S. TROUGH IS
   EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...THOUGH OCCURRING IN STAGES AS SEVERAL
   SMALLER-SCALE FEATURES DIG/ROTATE AROUND THE LARGER-SCALE TROUGH. 
   MEANWHILE...A LARGE UPPER LOW/TROUGH WILL REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY
   OVER THE WRN U.S. -- BLOCKED BY A STOUT RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL U.S.
   AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE PROVINCES.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM MT SWWD INTO THE GREAT
   BASIN REGION WILL MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS...WHILE A COLD FRONT
   MOVING ACROSS THE ERN U.S. SHOULD CROSS THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND APPROACH THE COAST LATE.
   
   ...TX PANHANDLE VICINITY...
   SELY FLOW ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE LOW/WARM FRONT -- PROGGED TO LIE
   NW-SE ACROSS CENTRAL TX DURING THE AFTERNOON -- BENEATH 20 TO 30 KT
   MID-LEVEL WLYS WILL RESULT BOTH IN SHEAR SUPPORTIVE OF
   SUPERCELLS...AND UPSLOPE-INDUCED ASCENT.  STILL...WITH RIDGING ALOFT
   RESULTING IN LARGE-SCALE SUBSIDENCE...CAPPING IS EXPECTED TO HINDER
   STORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON.
   
   MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT ISOLATED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT WILL
   EVENTUALLY OCCUR...AND WITH AFOREMENTIONED SHEAR AVAILABLE ALONG
   WITH 1000 TO 1500 J/KG CAPE BECOMING REALIZED IF THE CAP CAN INDEED
   MIX OUT LOCALLY...LARGE HAIL AND LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WOULD BE
   POSSIBLE WITH SUPERCELL STORMS...ALONG WITH POSSIBLY AN ISOLATED
   TORNADO OR TWO.  WHILE THIS REMAINS A CONDITIONAL THREAT...WILL
   MAINTAIN 15%/SLIGHT RISK GIVEN DEGREE OF POTENTIAL PRESUMING STORM
   INITIATION.
   
   ...WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION TO ERN NC...
   GENERALLY WEAK INSTABILITY IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT
   ADVANCES ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE DAY -- AND
   THEN E OF THE APPALACHIANS THROUGH THE EVENING.  THUS -- EXPECT
   CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION TO BE HINDERED IN MOST AREAS.  HAVING
   SAID THAT...MODERATE FLOW ALOFT SPREADING ACROSS THIS AREA COULD
   ALLOW A FEW STRONGER STORMS TO ORGANIZE WHERE POCKETS OF GREATER
   DESTABILIZATION MAY OCCUR.  THEREFORE -- WITH LOCAL HAIL/WIND
   POTENTIAL STILL EVIDENT...WILL MAINTAIN LOW SEVERE PROBABILITY/SEE
   TEXT ACROSS THIS REGION.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/22/2013
   
   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z