Apr 19, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 19 05:39:29 UTC 2014 (20140419 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140419 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140419 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140419 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 50,151 771,154 Abilene, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...San Angelo, TX...Snyder, TX...
   SPC AC 190445

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1145 PM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS WEST TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A
   DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TEXAS.  A FEW STRONG
   STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF WESTERN OKLAHOMA INTO
   CENTRAL KANSAS.

   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS...

   SLOW-MOVING UPPER LOW IS DRIFTING EWD ACROSS THE LOWER CO RIVER
   VALLEY.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT
   INTO THE SRN ROCKIES EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH THE TROUGH AXIS
   LIKELY EXTENDING ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX BY 21/00Z. 
   STRONGEST BELT OF MID-HIGH LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE OVER NRN MEXICO
   WITH 30-40KT AT 500MB FORECAST TO EXTEND OVER WEST TX DRYLINE BY
   PEAK HEATING.  DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
   SUSTAINED ROTATING UPDRAFTS...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF I-20 WHERE SFC-6KM
   VALUES SHOULD EXCEED 40KT.

   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST 50S SFC DEW POINTS WILL
   ADVANCE NWWD INTO CONVERGENT LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE SUCH THAT AMPLE
   INSTABILITY SHOULD EXIST BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON FOR ROBUST UPDRAFTS.
   IN FACT...COOLING PROFILES ALOFT MAY ALLOW INHIBITION TO WEAKEN
   ENOUGH FOR TSTM INITIATION FAIRLY EARLY...POSSIBLY BY 18Z. 
   HOWEVER...CONTINUED BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD RESULT IN SBCAPE
   VALUES APPROACHING 1500 J/KG WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. 
   FORECAST SOUNDING AT MAF AT 21/00Z STRONGLY SUPPORTS SUPERCELL
   DEVELOPMENT.  CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS
   SHOULD MOVE ESEWD THOUGH NEWD DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE IS
   EXPECTED ACROSS OK INTO KS.  TSTMS THAT DEVELOP ACROSS THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WILL DO SO WITHIN CONSIDERABLY WEAKER SHEAR AND FORECAST
   INSTABILITY DOES NOT APPEARS STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5
   PERCENT SEVERE PROBS DESPITE SCT COVERAGE EXPECTED.

   LARGE HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH SUPERCELLS ALONG WITH
   GUSTY WINDS.  WHILE A BRIEF TORNADO CAN NOT BE RULED OUT OVER WEST
   TX LOW LEVEL SHEAR MAY BE INADEQUATE TO SUPPORT MORE SIGNIFICANT
   TORNADO THREAT.

   ..DARROW.. 04/19/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z