May 31, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 31 05:34:22 UTC 2016 (20160531 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160531 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160531 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 243,727 26,982,293 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160531 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 243,382 26,980,184 Chicago, IL...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 310534

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1234 AM CDT TUE MAY 31 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS CENTERED OVER THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES REGION AND THE NRN HALF OF IL...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF CENTRAL AND SRN
   TX...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE UPPER
   GREAT LAKES AND SOUTHWESTWARD TO NORTHEAST MISSOURI/WEST-CENTRAL
   ILLINOIS MAINLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.  A FEW SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN TEXAS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THE MAIN BELT OF WLY FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS SRN CANADA AND
   THE ADJACENT NWRN/N CENTRAL U.S. WEDNESDAY/DAY 2...WITH AN EMBEDDED
   TROUGH TO SHIFT ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...A WEAKER TROUGH/LOW IS FORECAST TO
   CROSS NRN MEXICO AND TX THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A VERY WEAK COOL FRONT IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD
   ACROSS THE MID AND LOWER MS VALLEY AND SWD ACROSS TX DURING THE
   PERIOD...AS A WEAK/PARENT LOW DRIFTS ACROSS THE MIDWEST.  A SECOND
   FRONT -- TRAILING SWD FROM A STRONGER NRN MN/WRN ONTARIO LOW -- WILL
   MOVE ACROSS THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION TROUGH THE PERIOD.  THESE TWO BOUNDARIES WILL FOCUS
   CONVECTION -- AND LOW-END SEVERE RISK -- DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
   EARLY EVENING HOURS. 

   ...UPPER GREAT LAKES SWWD TO ERN IA/NERN MO/NRN AND WRN IL...
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION
   AND SWD INTO THE MIDWEST...AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT SHIFTING EWD
   ACROSS THE REGION.  THOUGH A SEASONABLY MOIST WARM SECTOR IS
   EXPECTED...CLOUDS/ONGOING PRECIPITATION ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE
   BOUNDARY SHOULD LIMIT OVERALL CAPE DEVELOPMENT.

   STILL...EXPECT AN AFTERNOON/DIURNAL UPTICK IN CONVECTIVE INTENSITY
   TO OCCUR THROUGH LATE AFTERNOON...WITH STORM ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY
   ENHANCED LOCALLY BY MODERATE /40 TO 45 KT/ SWLY FLOW OVER THE UPPER
   MS VALLEY/UPPER GREAT LAKES AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING MID-LEVEL TROUGH.
   ALONG WITH SOME RISK FOR MARGINAL HAIL...A FEW OF THE STRONGER CELLS
   MAY PROVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY/LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS INTO THE
   EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ...MUCH OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY AND INTO THE HILL COUNTRY OF TX...
   AS A SURFACE COOL FRONT SAGS SWD ACROSS TX AND BECOMES W-E ORIENTED
   ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY/S TX VICINITY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON...LARGE-SCALE ASCENT AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH
   -- FOCUSED INVOF THE SURFACE BOUNDARY -- SHOULD SUPPORT INITIATION
   OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS 1000 TO 2000
   J/KG MIXED-LAYER CAPE DEVELOPS INVOF THE FRONT.  THOUGH ONLY MODEST
   /20 TO 25 KT/ MID-LEVEL WLYS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
   AREA...LOW-LEVEL ESELY WINDS NEAR AND TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT
   WILL CONTRIBUTE TO DEEP-LAYER SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED
   UPDRAFTS/SOME MID-LEVEL ROTATION WITH A FEW STRONGER CELLS.  AS
   SUCH...LOW-PROBABILITY RISK FOR HAIL/WIND REMAINS
   APPARENT...PRIMARILY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.

   ..GOSS.. 05/31/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z