Aug 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Aug 28 06:00:47 UTC 2014 (20140828 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140828 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140828 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140828 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 219,490 25,812,335 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Kansas City, MO...Omaha, NE...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 280600

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0100 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO SPREAD
   GRADUALLY EASTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON FRIDAY...MOST
   NUMEROUS WITHIN A ZONE FROM THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.  ISOLATED SEVERE RISK
   WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH STRONGER STORMS...MAINLY OVER THE NORTHERN
   HALF OF THIS AREA -- FROM ROUGHLY EASTERN KANSAS AND MISSOURI TO THE
   UPPER GREAT LAKES AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   CONTINUED ADVANCE OF A WEAKENING TROUGH ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IS
   EXPECTED THIS PERIOD...WHILE A MUCH STRONGER/UPSTREAM TROUGH MOVES
   INTO THE WRN STATES.  WHILE THE PROGRESSION OF THE WRN TROUGH WILL
   SUPPRESS A SWRN U.S. RIDGE WITH TIME...THE ERN U.S. RIDGE WILL
   PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD.

   AT THE SURFACE...A WEAK COOL FRONT WILL DRIFT EWD/SEWD ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL PLAINS THROUGH THE DAY...WHILE A SECOND SURGE OF COOLER AIR
   SPREADS SWD ACROSS THE N CENTRAL U.S. WITH TIME.  MEANWHILE...A MUCH
   STRONGER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE NWRN U.S. IN CONJUNCTION
   WITH THE ADVANCING WRN UPPER TROUGH.

   ...ERN KS/MO VICINITY NEWD INTO SERN MN/SRN WI/WRN LOWER MI...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO BE ONGOING AT THE START OF
   THE PERIOD FROM PORTIONS OF TX/OK NEWD TO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES
   REGION...AND SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING WHILE SHIFTING GRADUALLY EWD.  GIVEN THE ONGOING/RELATIVELY
   WIDESPREAD NATURE OF THE CONVECTION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD
   COVER...AIRMASS DESTABILIZATION SHOULD REMAIN SOMEWHAT HINDERED
   ACROSS LARGE PORTIONS OF THE AREA.  IN ADDITION...WITH RELATIVELY
   MODEST MID-LEVEL SWLYS AHEAD OF THE TROUGH...OVERALL FLOW FIELD
   SHOULD REMAIN ONLY MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.

   THE MOST FAVORABLE AREA FOR A FEW STRONGER CELLS APPEARS TO EXIST
   FROM ROUGHLY IA INTO SERN MN/WI...BUT ATTM CONFIDENCE THAT RISK
   WARRANTS SLIGHT RISK UPGRADE REMAINS LOW.  THUS...WILL MAINTAIN A
   BROADER 5% RISK AREA THIS FORECAST.

   ..GOSS.. 08/28/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z