Mar 28, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Mar 28 05:54:21 UTC 2015 (20150328 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150328 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150328 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150328 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280554

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1254 AM CDT SAT MAR 28 2015

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING/NIGHT FROM THE
   RED RIVER OF THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WITH A
   VERY LOW PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE HAIL.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM MANITOBA TO THE UPPER MIDWEST AT 12Z/SUN
   WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE CYCLONE
   TRACKING E MAINLY OVER ONTARIO. ATTENDANT COLD FRONT WILL REACH THE
   APPALACHIANS TO DEEP SOUTH...WITH TRAILING PORTION BECOMING
   QUASI-STATIONARY OVER TX. A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SHOULD APPROACH BAJA
   CA WITH A DOWNSTREAM UPPER JET OVERSPREADING THE SRN GREAT PLAINS.

   ...RED RIVER/ARKLATEX...
   28/00Z RAOBS ALONG THE WRN/CNTRL GULF COAST SAMPLED A RATHER DRY AIR
   MASS CHARACTERIZED BY MEAN MIXING RATIOS BETWEEN 3-5 G/KG. GOES PW
   IMAGERY INDICATES THIS CONTINENTAL POLAR INTRUSION HAS OVERSPREAD
   THE NRN 3/4 OF THE GULF BASIN. ALTHOUGH WEAK RETURN FLOW HAS
   COMMENCED OVER THE FAR WRN GULF AND WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY
   PERVASIVE AS WELL AS STRENGTHEN ON D2...THE 10-12 G/KG MEAN MIXING
   RATIOS DEPICTED ACROSS GUIDANCE ALONG THE FRONT BY 30/00Z APPEARS A
   BIT OVERDONE. WITH PERSISTENT WLYS BETWEEN 850-700 MB...A STOUT EML
   /MOST REPRESENTATIVE IN WARM SECTOR NAM SOUNDINGS/ WILL LIKELY
   PRECLUDE SURFACE-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE DAY.

   LOWER-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IS PROGGED TO STRENGTHEN SUN EVENING ALONG
   THE FRONTAL ZONE AND THIS MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT TO YIELD NEGLIGIBLE
   MUCIN FOR ELEVATED PARCELS N OF THE FRONT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY
   ON THE DEGREE OF NIGHTTIME CONVECTIVE QPF. IF STORMS WERE TO
   DEVELOP...A MARGINAL RISK FOR SEVERE HAIL MAY OCCUR GIVEN VERY STEEP
   MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND MODEST EFFECTIVE SHEAR. UNCONDITIONAL
   PROBABILITIES...WHILE NON-ZERO...DO NOT APPEAR TO BE AOA 5 PERCENT
   THIS OUTLOOK.

   ...MID-SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...
   CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF AT LEAST ISOLATED TSTMS E
   OF THE LOWER MS VALLEY SUN NIGHT. 700-MB HEIGHT FALLS SHOULD
   OVERSPREAD THIS REGION ON THE PERIPHERAL INFLUENCE OF THE AMPLIFYING
   GREAT LAKES TROUGH. IN CONJUNCTION WITH LOWER-LEVEL WAA ALONG THE
   SURFACE FRONT WITHIN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF THE SRN-STREAM UPPER
   JET...SETUP SHOULD FOSTER ELEVATED CONVECTION FORMING LATE EVENING
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT. ALTHOUGH MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL INITIALLY BE
   STEEP...WEAK BUOYANCY...MODEST CLOUD-BEARING SHEAR AND CLUSTER MODE
   SHOULD LIMIT HAIL SIZE TO SUB-SEVERE.

   ..GRAMS.. 03/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z