Jul 28, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 28 04:40:02 UTC 2014 (20140728 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140728 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140728 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140728 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 209,917 28,784,868 Chicago, IL...Detroit, MI...Milwaukee, WI...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...
   SPC AC 280440

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1140 PM CDT SUN JUL 27 2014

   VALID 291200Z - 301200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED HAIL
   WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS WISCONSIN...NORTHERN ILLINOIS AND
   MICHIGAN DURING THE DAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN STATIONARY ACROSS ERN CANADA WITH BROAD
   CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT COVERING THE ERN HALF OF THE CONUS.
   MEANWHILE...AN UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN STATES BUT WILL
   GRADUALLY WEAKEN. RELATIVELY DRY AIR AT THE SURFACE WITH HIGH
   PRESSURE WILL STRETCH FROM THE NRN PLAINS SEWD TO AN OLD FRONT FROM
   NRN FL WWD ACROSS THE NRN GULF OF MEXICO. 

   SELY WINDS AROUND THE SURFACE RIDGE FROM TX INTO THE CNTRL HIGH
   PLAINS WILL MAINTAIN AT LEAST MARGINAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WITH
   SCATTERED STORMS DEVELOPING FROM WY INTO CO AND NM DURING THE DAY
   WITH A MARGINAL HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

   COLD AIR ALOFT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES IN COMBINATION WITH DAYTIME
   HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED DAYTIME STORM FROM WI INTO MI AND
   NRN IL...SOME OF WHICH WILL LIKELY CONTAIN AT LEAST SMALL HAIL.

   ...CNTRL HIGH PLAINS...
   A WEAK SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEVELOP FROM THE SRN PLAINS NWWD ACROSS
   ERN CO WITH SELY UPSLOPE FLOW. HEATING AND 50S TO LOWER 60S F
   DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR A FEW STRONG TO
   SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF MARGINAL HAIL. WINDS ALOFT WILL BE WEAK BUT
   STRONG DIRECTION SHEAR WITH HEIGHT WILL AID IN STORM LONGEVITY.
   STORMS SHOULD BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD DURING THE EVENING WITH A
   NOCTURNAL STRENGTHENING OF A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET WITH MARGINAL WIND
   AND HEAVY RAIN LIKELY.

   ...WI...NRN IL...MI...
   DAYTIME HEATING BENEATH COOL TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LEAD TO AROUND
   500 J/KG MLCAPE. THE STRONG HEATING AND LACK OF CIN WILL LEAD TO
   WIDESPREAD CONGESTUS WITH A FEW NW-SE ORIENTED CONFLUENCE BANDS AND
   LAKE BREEZES LOCALLY ENHANCING CONVERGENCE. MOISTURE WILL BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR HAIL GIVEN THE LAPSE RATES ALOFT...AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR MAY EVEN FAVOR A FEW LONG-LIVED CORES. OVERALL COVERAGE OF
   SEVERE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN ISOLATED...BUT SUB-SEVERE HAIL COULD
   OCCUR WITH MANY OF THE CELLS.

   ...FL...
   HEATING ALONG WITH LOWER 70S F DEWPOINTS WILL LEAD TO AN UNSTABLE
   AIR MASS DURING THE DAY S OF THE STALLED FRONT ACROSS NRN FL. WEAK
   SURFACE CONVERGENCE SHOULD YIELD A FEW PULSE-TYPE STORMS GIVEN LIGHT
   WINDS ALOFT. IN ADDITION...RELATIVELY DRY AIR ABOVE THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND POOR MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL MITIGATE STORM
   STRENGTH AS WELL.

   ..JEWELL.. 07/28/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z