Nov 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Nov 1 05:41:55 UTC 2014 (20141101 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141101 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141101 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141101 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 010541

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1241 AM CDT SAT NOV 01 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL AFFECT THE SOUTHWEST U.S. AND
   SOUTHERN ROCKIES DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY...AND THEN MAY SPREAD AS
   EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO MONDAY MORNING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS AN ERN U.S. UPPER LOW/TROUGH SHIFTS NEWD ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND
   THE WRN ATLANTIC...A SECOND TROUGH MOVING SLOWLY EWD ACROSS THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN W WILL BECOME THE PRIMARY UPPER FEATURE WITH RESPECT
   TO THE CONVECTIVE FORECAST.  

   AS HEIGHTS FALL ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS STATES...STEEPENING LAPSE
   RATES IN CONJUNCTION WITH DIURNAL HEATING WILL SUPPORT MEAGER CAPE
   -- FUELING DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS DURING
   THE AFTERNOON.  THOUGH CONVECTION HERE SHOULD DIMINISH AFTER
   DARK...A NOCTURNAL INCREASE IN ELEVATED STORMS MAY OCCUR EWD INTO
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS AS A 50 KT SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET EVOLVES.  

   ELSEWHERE...COOL/CONTINENTAL AIR SHOULD PRECLUDE STORM DEVELOPMENT.

   ..GOSS.. 11/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z