Sep 23, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 23 05:53:09 UTC 2014 (20140923 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140923 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140923 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140923 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 47,533 493,424 Amarillo, TX...Liberal, KS...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
   SPC AC 230553

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1253 AM CDT TUE SEP 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE WEDNESDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
   CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS...SOUTHERN ROCKIES...AND COASTAL
   SOUTHEAST STATES. A FEW STRONG STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC-SCALE PATTERN WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS ON
   WEDNESDAY...WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES CONFINED TO THE CONUS WEST
   COAST AND CANADA. AMID WEAKER WESTERLIES...MULTIPLE WEAK
   MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOWS WILL MOVE SLOWLY OVER AREAS SUCH AS THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...AND SOUTHEAST STATES. MEANWHILE...A
   SUBSTANTIAL UPPER TROUGH/POLAR JET WILL BEGIN TO SPREAD INLAND OVER
   THE CONUS WEST COAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   DIURNALLY ENHANCED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT...MAINLY ON AN ISOLATED
   BASIS...MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A
   SEMI-PERSISTENT LEE TROUGH AND/OR FAVORED HIGHER TERRAIN. ON THE
   NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN UPPER LOW OVER WEST TX...OVERALL FORCING
   AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR /25 KT OR LESS/ WILL BE WEAK. EVEN
   SO...RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES AND MODERATE BUOYANCY /UP TO 1500
   J PER KG MLCAPE/ MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. WHILE ORGANIZED STORM MODES ARE NOT
   EXPECTED...LOCALIZED INSTANCES OF PULSE-TYPE HAIL AND SOME STRONGER
   WIND GUSTS MAY BE POSSIBLE...SUCH THAT LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   APPEAR WARRANTED.

   ..GUYER.. 09/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z