May 29, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 29 05:55:21 UTC 2015 (20150529 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150529 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150529 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 764,052 74,412,287 Houston, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150529 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 762,552 74,421,317 New York, NY...Chicago, IL...Houston, TX...Philadelphia, PA...San Antonio, TX...
   SPC AC 290555

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT FRI MAY 29 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS
   TO THE OH VALLEY/NORTHEAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF MT...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME STRONG WITH GUSTY WINDS AND
   HAIL...WILL DEVELOP NEAR AND AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT FROM PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST STATES AND MIDWEST TO TEXAS ON SATURDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AS PART OF A STRONGER BELT OF LOW-AMPLITUDE WESTERLIES OVER THE
   NORTHERN TIER OF THE CONUS INTO CANADA...AN UPPER TROUGH WILL
   PROGRESS EASTWARD OVER EASTERN CANADA AND ADJACENT PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. CONSIDERABLY WEAKER
   WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF THE
   CONUS...WITH A WEAK UPPER TROUGH SLOWLY OVERSPREADING THE OZARKS AND
   LOWER MS RIVER VALLEY. SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDING AT LEAST SOME
   RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL EXIST ALONG/AHEAD OF A
   SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT THAT SHOULD EXTEND FROM SOUTHERN
   PORTIONS OF ONTARIO/QUEBEC SOUTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE LOWER OH VALLEY
   TO EAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. 

   ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND TO MIDWEST/OH VALLEY...
   OWING TO THE PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED LARGE-SCALE SCENARIO...THE
   RELATIVELY STRONGEST FORCING FOR ASCENT IS EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD
   PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST STATES/NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND ON SATURDAY. THE
   EXACT DEGREE/LOCATIONS OF PEAK DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT ARE A BIT QUESTIONABLE GIVEN WEAK MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND
   THE POSSIBILITY OF SOME SHOWERS/CLOUD COVER ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   MIDWEST SATURDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...CORRIDORS OF STRONGER HEATING
   AND RELATED MODEST BUOYANCY SHOULD ALLOW FOR THE
   DEVELOPMENT/INTENSIFICATION OF MOSTLY MULTICELLS/LINE SEGMENTS
   DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WINDS WILL LIKELY BE THE PRIMARY HAZARD...WITH SOME MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL POSSIBLE AS WELL.

   ...TX/NM...
   LARGER-SCALE INFLUENCES/VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE WEAK OVER THE REGION
   ON SATURDAY...BUT SOME STRONG TO SEVERE PULSE-TYPE THUNDERSTORMS
   CAPABLE OF HAIL/WIND MAY BE POSSIBLE WITHIN A MOIST/MODERATELY
   ENVIRONMENT NEAR THE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING FRONT ACROSS PARTS OF
   EAST/SOUTH-CENTRAL TX SATURDAY AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. A FEW OTHER
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR ACROSS FAR SOUTHWEST TX AND/OR
   CENTRAL/NORTHEAST NM COINCIDENT WITH INCREASING POST-FRONTAL
   MOISTURE AND WEAK UPSLOPE...ALTHOUGH VERTICAL SHEAR WILL TEND TO BE
   WEAK /PERHAPS 30 KT/ IN GENERAL PROXIMITY TO THE UPPER RIDGE.

   ...MT...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE EASTWARD NEAR
   THE CREST OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN ROCKIES UPPER RIDGE. THUNDERSTORMS
   SHOULD INITIALLY DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS/HIGHER TERRAIN OF
   WEST-CENTRAL MT SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
   EASTWARD INTO ADDITIONAL PORTIONS OF CENTRAL/EASTERN MT THROUGH THE
   LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. ADEQUATE MOISTURE/MARGINAL
   BUOYANCY MAY ALLOW FOR SOME STRONGER/POSSIBLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
   CAPABLE OF STRONGER WINDS AND/OR ISOLATED HAIL SATURDAY
   AFTERNOON/EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 05/29/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z