Apr 29, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 29 04:46:25 UTC 2016 (20160429 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160429 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160429 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 132,815 15,549,516 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
MARGINAL 144,417 11,074,718 Louisville, KY...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...Evansville, IN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160429 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 132,769 15,662,095 Houston, TX...Memphis, TN...St. Louis, MO...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...
5 % 145,804 10,934,862 Louisville, KY...Baton Rouge, LA...Jackson, MS...Springfield, MO...Evansville, IN...
   SPC AC 290446

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1146 PM CDT THU APR 28 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PORTIONS OF MO/SRN IL TO
   SERN TX...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE IMMEDIATE SLGT
   RISK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MID
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY SATURDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY EXPECTED
   ACROSS THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEASTERN TEXAS.

   ...MS VALLEY...

   SWRN U.S. UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS BY
   SUNRISE SATURDAY MORNING AS H5 SPEED MAX TRANSLATES INTO THE
   ARKLATEX.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE SHOULD FOCUS ASCENT OVER THE
   MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THE PERIOD.

   LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL LIKELY BE RESPONSIBLE FOR EARLY-DAY
   CONVECTION ALONG/NORTH OF WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE DRAPED NEAR THE
   I-70 CORRIDOR FROM MO INTO INDIANA.  CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS SHOULD BE
   ROOTED NEAR 850MB AND INSTABILITY COULD PROVE ADEQUATE FOR SMALL
   HAIL.  HOWEVER...MORE ROBUST UPDRAFTS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATER
   IN THE DAY IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF WEAK SFC LOW WHERE STRONG
   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED.  WHILE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS
   EXPECTED TO VEER ACROSS THE WARM SECTOR IT APPEARS ISOLATED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL EVOLVE AS SFC PARCELS APPROACH THEIR CONVECTIVE
   TEMPERATURES.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS BUT WEAK
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SUGGESTS HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT.

   FARTHER SOUTH...SUBSTANTIAL HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE DAY AS SPEED MAX MOVES INTO NRN MS BY
   01/00Z.  ENTRANCE REGION OF THIS JET MAY ENHANCE CONVECTIVE THREAT
   ALONG WEAKLY CONVERGENT SFC BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD BE DRAPED ACROSS
   EAST TX DURING THE PERIOD.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION WHERE ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR IS
   ADEQUATELY STRONG...SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 40KT. 
   CORRIDOR OF STRONGEST BUOYANCY WILL EXTEND ACROSS EAST TX INTO SWRN
   AR AND CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL.

   ..DARROW.. 04/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z