Oct 25, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Oct 25 05:39:59 UTC 2014 (20141025 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141025 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141025 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141025 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 250539

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1239 AM CDT SAT OCT 25 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
   OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL HAIL SHOULD OCCUR WITH THE STRONGEST
   STORMS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NRN
   GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING FROM
   THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE WILL
   WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS
   THE SRN PRAIRIE PROVINCES. A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP E/SE AND REACH
   THE UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE
   NE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA WILL YIELD ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
   SUN NIGHT AMIDST A MODESTLY RETURNING MOISTURE PLUME CHARACTERIZED
   BY PW VALUES JUST OVER AN INCH. THE NAM HAS TRENDED TOWARDS LESSER
   BUOYANCY BUT STILL APPEARS TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH HIGH 850 MB DEW
   POINTS AND MOIST ABSOLUTELY UNSTABLE LAYERS IN THERMODYNAMIC
   PROFILES. THE PREDOMINANT SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
   WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAK...FOLLOWING CONSENSUS OF OTHER
   GUIDANCE. GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE DEPARTING MID-LEVEL
   RIDGE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE. A FEW STORMS WILL
   PROBABLY PRODUCE SMALL HAIL...BUT OVERALL SETUP DOES NOT APPEAR TO
   WARRANT A MARGINAL SEVERE HAIL RISK THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/25/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z