Sep 1, 2014 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 1 04:30:31 UTC 2014 (20140901 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140901 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140901 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140901 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 264,078 33,722,700 Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Cleveland, OH...Pittsburgh, PA...Cincinnati, OH...
   SPC AC 010430

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 PM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP AHEAD OF A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
   NEW YORK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
   GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

   ...NY TO OZARK PLATEAU...

   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD ACROSS ONTARIO INTO
   QUEBEC TUESDAY WITH ONLY WEAK FALLS EXPECTED TO TRAIL ACROSS THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGESTS UPPER TROUGH
   WILL EJECT FROM THE MS VALLEY REGION TO A POSITION FROM THE U.P. OF
   MI...SWD TO NEAR THE OH RIVER BY 18Z...THEN INTO UPSTATE NY BY
   MIDNIGHT.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO ENHANCE AN ELONGATED CORRIDOR
   OF CONVECTION AHEAD OF WEAK SFC FRONT...BOTH DURING THE DAY1 AND
   DAY2 PERIODS.  SCT TSTMS SHOULD BE ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
   PERIOD...LIKELY DISPLACED WELL AHEAD OF THE MAIN SYNOPTIC FRONT
   STRETCHING FROM THE LOWER GREAT LAKES...SWWD INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU.
   WHILE THIS ACTIVITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
   STRONG...EXTENSIVE CLOUDS/PRECIP WILL LIMIT DIABATIC
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION ACROSS THE REGION OF CONCERN.  ALTHOUGH SFC
   HEATING SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THIS PRE-FRONTAL
   CONVECTION...BUOYANCY SHOULD INCREASE THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND
   ROBUST TSTMS MAY EVOLVE ALONG DIFFERENTIAL HEATING ZONES/CONVECTIVE
   OUTFLOW.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST WLY 30-40KT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
   WHICH WOULD SEEM SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED CLUSTERS/LINE
   SEGMENTS.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ..DARROW.. 09/01/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z