Jul 7, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jul 7 04:53:13 UTC 2015 (20150707 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150707 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150707 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150707 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 070453

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1153 PM CDT MON JUL 06 2015

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE U.S. WEDNESDAY THROUGH
   WEDNESDAY NIGHT CURRENTLY APPEARS NEGLIGIBLE.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LATEST MODEL OUTPUT OFFERS LITTLE CHANGES FROM PRIOR RUNS. 
   SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIR WILL REMAIN CONFINED TO AREAS
   ALONG AND SOUTH OF A SURFACE FRONTAL ZONE WHICH HAS ALREADY ADVANCED
   TO THE SOUTHEAST AND SOUTH OF THE STRONGER MID-LATITUDE
   WESTERLIES...WHICH LIKELY WILL REMAIN NEAR AND NORTH OF THE
   CANADIAN/U.S. BORDER THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD.  WHILE THE FRONT
   MAY PROGRESS ACROSS AND EAST OF THE NORTH ATLANTIC COAST DURING THE
   DAY WEDNESDAY...IT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN QUASI-STATIONARY ACROSS THE
   OHIO VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   MODEST SUBTROPICAL RIDGING AT MID-LEVELS IS STILL FORECAST TO EXPAND
   WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST REGION...WITH FLOW TRANSITIONING TO
   BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC ON ITS WESTERN AND NORTHERN PERIPHERY...FROM
   THE PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE OHIO
   VALLEY AND NORTHERN/MID ATLANTIC COAST.  HOWEVER...AT LEAST ONE
   CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED PERTURBATION EMERGING FROM THE
   SOUTH CENTRAL PLAINS APPEARS LIKELY TO BE EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS
   REGIME...AND COULD REMAIN FAIRLY WELL-DEFINED WHILE CROSSING THE
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...BEFORE BECOMING INCREASINGLY SHEARED TO
   THE EAST NORTHEAST.  A MORE SUBTLE IMPULSE MAY CROSS THE CENTRAL
   APPALACHIANS/MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...WHILE ANOTHER PERTURBATION
   EMERGES FROM THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST AND CROSSES THE CENTRAL ROCKIES.


   AT THE SAME TIME...A CLOSED LOW...WHICH APPEARS TO BE ASSOCIATED
   WITH PHASING OF A WEAK SOUTHERN BRANCH OF SPLIT MID-LATITUDE
   WESTERLIES...AND THE SUBTROPICAL STREAM...IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE
   VERY GRADUALLY PROGRESSING INLAND ACROSS THE CALIFORNIA COAST.

   ...MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AREA...
   ALTHOUGH WIND FIELDS WITH THE CONVECTIVELY GENERATED OR ENHANCED
   IMPULSE EMERGING FROM THE PLAINS MAY REMAIN STRONG AND SHEARED
   ENOUGH TO PROVIDE AT LEAST SOME SUPPORT FOR SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
   WEDNESDAY...THERE APPEARS INCREASING UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING ITS
   TRACK RELATIVE TO THE LINGERING SURFACE FRONT ACROSS THE REGION.  IT
   MAY REMAIN MOSTLY TO THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY...WHICH MAY BE
   REINFORCED BY CONSIDERABLE RESIDUAL EARLY PERIOD CONVECTIVE
   PRECIPITATION...AND SLOW TO RETREAT NORTHWARD.  AT THE PRESENT
   TIME...TOO MANY UNCERTAINTIES EXIST TO MAINTAIN EVEN 5 PERCENT
   SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...PIEDMONT INTO COASTAL PLAIN OF NORTH CAROLINA INTO VIRGINIA...
   MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE CROSSING THE
   CENTRAL APPALACHIANS COULD CONTRIBUTE TO THE INITIATION OF STORMS TO
   THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  STRONG DAYTIME HEATING WITHIN THE
   LEE SURFACE TROUGH MAY CONTRIBUTE TO RELATIVELY DEEP BOUNDARY LAYER
   MIXING...WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE 90S ACROSS THE PIEDMONT OF
   NORTH CAROLINA INTO SOUTHERN/CENTRAL VIRGINIA...ALONG THE WESTERN
   EDGE OF RICHER BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE.  THIS INTERFACE MAY PROVIDE
   THE FOCUS FOR INCREASINGLY VIGOROUS STORM DEVELOPMENT LATE WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...IT REMAINS UNCLEAR WHETHER DEEP LAYER
   FLOW/SHEAR WILL BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE
   ORGANIZATION AND SUPPORT ANYTHING BEYOND VERY ISOLATED/LOCALIZED
   DOWNBURSTS.  LOW SEVERE PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN
   LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS PERIOD.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   IT DOES NOT APPEAR OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT STEEPENING OF MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN MAY CONTRIBUTE TO THE
   EVOLUTION OF AN ENVIRONMENT AT LEAST MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE TO
   ISOLATED SUPERCELL STORMS...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY EVENING...WITH
   THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET.  LOW SEVERE WEATHER
   PROBABILITIES MAY NEED TO BE CONSIDERED IN LATER OUTLOOKS FOR THIS
   PERIOD...ACROSS PARTS OF EASTERN COLORADO AND NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
   INTO ADJACENT PORTIONS OF KANSAS AND THE PANHANDLE REGION.

   ..KERR.. 07/07/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z