Apr 25, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 25 04:35:26 UTC 2015 (20150425 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150425 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150425 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 133,501 14,699,162 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
MARGINAL 358,726 40,899,074 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150425 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 24,690 630,522 Wichita Falls, TX...Weatherford, TX...Brownwood, TX...Mineral Wells, TX...Stephenville, TX...
15 % 134,269 14,726,211 Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...
5 % 359,633 41,336,287 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...New Orleans, LA...Atlanta, GA...
   SPC AC 250435

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 PM CDT FRI APR 24 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF THE GULF STATES
   REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT
   HOURS.  ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER
   OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

   ...SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   FOCUSED ZONE OF MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL TRANSLATE ACROSS THE
   DESERT SOUTHWEST INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF
   THE DAY2 PERIOD.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST STRONG
   JET STREAK WILL TRANSLATE THROUGH THE BASE OF A DIGGING UPPER TROUGH
   OVER NRN MEXICO...THEN EJECT INTO THE EDWARDS PLATEAU DURING THE
   OVERNIGHT HOURS.  EXIT REGION OF THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO FOCUS
   ASCENT ALONG DRY LINE AS MODEST LLJ RESPONDS AND IMPINGES ON
   SWD-SAGGING SYNOPTIC FRONT ACROSS OK.  CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   READILY DEVELOP WITHIN THE WARM ADVECTION CORRIDOR ACROSS OK...ALONG
   COOL SIDE OF FRONTAL ZONE...PRIMARILY DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   STRONGEST CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG DRY LINE NEAR OR
   SHORTLY AFTER 27/00Z AS MOISTURE ADVANCES INTO AFOREMENTIONED REGION
   OF ASCENT ACROSS WCNTRL TX.  BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL INITIALLY
   BE RETARDED IN NWWD ADVANCEMENT DUE TO WEAK COASTAL/CONVECTIVE
   BOUNDARY THAT SHOULD DISRUPT SLY TRAJECTORIES.  HOWEVER...SFC DEW
   POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F SHOULD ENCOUNTER THE DRY LINE
   NEAR SUNSET AND ISOLATED SUPERCELLS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  LARGE
   HAIL IS THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY.  LARGE HAIL IS
   ALSO THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH CONVECTION THAT EVOLVES OVER OK DURING
   THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

   ...GULF STATES...

   ISOLATED STRONG STORMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
   GULF STATES SUNDAY...THOUGH FORCING IS MORE NEBULOUS AS SHORT-WAVE
   RIDGING IS EXPECTED TO TRANSLATE INTO THE LOWER MS VALLEY.  DIURNAL
   HEATING ALONG SWD-ADVANCING FRONTAL ZONE COULD ENCOURAGE A FEW
   STRONG STORMS AND COASTAL BREEZES COULD ALSO INITIATE STRONG
   CONVECTION WITHIN SEASONALLY STRONG WLY FLOW REGIME.  HAIL/WIND ARE
   THE PRIMARY THREATS WITH MORE ROBUST CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 04/25/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z