Sep 3, 2015 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 3 05:30:13 UTC 2015 (20150903 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150903 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150903 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 53,586 720,656 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150903 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 53,780 721,410 Fargo, ND...Grand Forks, ND...Moorhead, MN...West Fargo, ND...West Fargo, MN...
   SPC AC 030530

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 AM CDT THU SEP 03 2015

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS WITH A THREAT FOR STRONG WIND GUSTS
   AND SOME HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA INTO
   NORTHWEST MINNESOTA. OTHERWISE...WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES THROUGH
   THE ROCKIES AND CENTRAL THROUGH NORTHERN PLAINS. OTHER STORMS WILL
   DEVELOP FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO VALLEY INTO THE
   SOUTHEAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A HIGH-AMPLITUDE SYNOPTIC TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO EVOLVE OVER THE
   PACIFIC NW AND NRN ROCKIES FRIDAY...WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE REMAINS A
   DOMINANT FEATURE OVER THE EASTERN STATES. A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH WILL MOVE NEWD THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS DURING THE DAY WITH
   WEAKER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN NWLY FLOW FROM THE GREAT LAKES INTO
   THE OH VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC AREA. AT THE SFC A COLD FRONT WILL
   EXTEND FROM NWRN ND SWWD INTO THE NRN ROCKIES EARLY FRIDAY WITH A
   LEE TROUGH LOCATED OVER THE NRN AND CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE FRONT
   WILL ADVANCE SEWD AND LIKELY EXTEND FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH NRN SD
   INTO SERN MT OR NERN WY AND INTO NV BY THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

   ...ERN ND THROUGH NWRN MN AREA...

   A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING EARLY FRIDAY OVER A
   PORTION OF THE DAKOTAS IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED
   NEWD-ADVANCING SHORTWAVE TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL BE ONGOING IN
   POST-FRONTAL ZONE FROM ERN MT INTO NWRN ND. DOWNSTREAM...ACROSS ERN
   ND INTO MN...THE MOIST WARM SECTOR IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MODERATELY
   UNSTABLE AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE DAY. ADDITIONAL
   STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP WITHIN BELT OF ASCENT ACCOMPANYING THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A MODEST UPPER JET WITHIN BASE OF THIS FEATURE
   WILL AUGMENT DEEP-LAYER WIND PROFILES WITH VERTICAL SHEAR BECOMING
   AT LEAST MARGINALLY SUPPORTIVE OF A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS
   ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THE STRONGER STORMS DEVELOPING
   WITHIN THIS ENVIRONMENT WILL POSE SOME THREAT FOR DAMAGING WIND AND
   HAIL. THIS AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT
   RISK IN LATER UPDATES.

   ..DIAL.. 09/03/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z