Jun 30, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 30 05:47:32 UTC 2016 (20160630 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160630 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160630 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 156,481 19,774,034 Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...Yonkers, NY...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160630 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 156,779 19,810,046 New York, NY...Colorado Springs, CO...Wichita, KS...Newark, NJ...Jersey City, NJ...
   SPC AC 300547

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1247 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN NY...FAR
   WRN NEW ENGLAND...ERN PA INTO NRN NJ...

   ...SUMMARY...
   MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS
   WILL BE POSSIBLE FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING IN THE SOUTHERN AND
   CENTRAL PLAINS. A FEW STRONG THUNDERSTORMS WITH MARGINALLY SEVERE
   WIND GUSTS MAY ALSO DEVELOP IN EASTERN NEW YORK AND FAR WESTERN NEW
   ENGLAND SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA AND NORTHERN NEW JERSEY.

   ...NEW YORK/FAR WRN NEW ENGLAND/ERN PA/NRN NJ...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES ON
   FRIDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS.
   A MOIST AIRMASS IS FORECAST AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH SFC DEWPOINTS
   LIKELY IN THE 60S F ON FRIDAY FROM ERN NY EWD ACROSS MUCH OF NEW
   ENGLAND AND SWD INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC. THE NAM...GFS AND ECMWF
   DEVELOP AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WITH
   CONVECTION INITIATING ALONG OR JUST AHEAD OF THE FRONT. FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS ACROSS ERN NY AT 00Z/SAT SHOW UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILES
   WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF MID-LEVEL FLOW. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE
   RATES FROM 0-3 KM MAY BE ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND
   GUSTS.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   A LOW-AMPLITUDE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE
   SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS ON FRIDAY. AT THE SFC...A QUASI-STATIONARY
   FRONT IS FORECAST TO BE IN PLACE FROM SE CO EXTENDING EWD ACROSS FAR
   SRN KS. SFC DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT SHOULD RANGE FROM NEAR 60 F IN
   SE CO TO NEAR 70 F IN SE KS. AS SFC HEATING TAKES PLACE ON
   FRIDAY...A POCKET OF MODERATE INSTABILITY MAY DEVELOP ACROSS SRN KS
   BY AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM INITIATING. ALTHOUGH
   DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE RELATIVELY WEAK...STEEP LOW-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WILL MAKE MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS POSSIBLE WITH THE
   STRONGER CELLS. A HAIL THREAT WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY
   ACROSS SE CO AND SW KS WHERE MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AND DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR STORM ROTATION.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z