Jul 24, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 24 05:51:42 UTC 2016 (20160724 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160724 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160724 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 315,330 70,862,064 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160724 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 314,868 70,822,828 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...
   SPC AC 240551

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1251 AM CDT SUN JUL 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHEAST INTO
   THE OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND THE
   NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS TO CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...MAINLY MONDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH INITIALLY OVER ONT AND THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL
   GRADUALLY DEAMPLIFY WHILE MOVING EWD TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST CONUS. AN
   ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL LAG ACROSS THE LOWER GREAT LAKES WWD
   TOWARDS THE MID-MS VALLEY BY LATE AFTERNOON. FARTHER W...A PROMINENT
   MIDLEVEL ANTICYCLONE WILL BE POSITIONED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS...WITH
   SOME ENHANCEMENT IN WLY FLOW ALOFT OCCURRING ALONG THE NRN PERIPHERY
   OF THE ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION AS A WEAK IMPULSE MOVES THROUGH THE
   INTERMOUNTAIN WEST. 

   ...NORTHEAST...
   MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM THE SW WILL OCCUR EARLY MON MORNING IN
   ASSOCIATION WITH A MODEST STRENGTHENING OF LOW-LEVEL FLOW...BRINGING
   MID-60S TO LOW-70S F DEWPOINTS ACROSS NY/PA INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND.
   EARLY MORNING CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   REGION...BUT MOST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS STRONG DIURNAL HEATING SHOULD
   STILL OCCUR ACROSS SRN NEW ENGLAND AND NY WWD INTO THE UPPER-OH
   VALLEY...WITH MODEL FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGESTING 80S TO LOW-90S F
   TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE BY EARLY AFTERNOON. TSTM INITIATION OR
   REDEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE FOCUSED ALONG A BROAD PRE-FRONTAL CONFLUENCE
   ZONE ACROSS NY...AND ALONG TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS WRN PA INTO
   PARTS OF OH/IND. 

   WITH GENERALLY VEERED LOW-LEVEL WIND PROFILES AHEAD OF THE COLD
   FRONT...DMGG WIND GUSTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE THE PRIMARY THREAT GIVEN
   THE PRESENCE OF STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES. A FEW ORGANIZED
   CLUSTERS COULD EVOLVE ACROSS PA AND WRN NY WHERE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS
   RELATIVELY STRONGER...BUT STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING
   THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE FOCUSED TO THE N...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL
   CONVERGENCE IS ANTICIPATED ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH LENDS SOME
   UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE COVERAGE/EVOLUTION OF TSTMS ACROSS THIS AREA.
   MORE UNCERTAIN IS THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION THAT WILL OCCUR
   FARTHER N/E INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND AND PARTS OF NY...WHILE SHEAR
   WEAKENS WITH WWD EXTENT ALONG/N OF THE OH VALLEY. GIVEN THESE
   FACTORS...CONFIDENCE IS STILL NOT SUFFICIENTLY HIGH FOR SLIGHT RISK
   UPGRADE IN THIS OUTLOOK. 

   ...CNTRL/NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   MODEST MOISTURE ADVECTION ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS WILL OCCUR
   OVERNIGHT...WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE LOW-50S ACROSS WRN SD TO NEAR
   60 F OVER WRN NEB. S-SELY SFC WINDS WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED E OF A
   LEE TROUGH...AND COULD SUPPORT THE DEVELOPMENT OF ISOLATED TSTMS
   WITHIN AN UPSLOPE REGIME ACROSS THE BLACK HILLS AND PERHAPS OVER THE
   FRONT RANGE. ALTHOUGH MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE MODEST /AROUND 20
   KT/...VEERING WINDS WITH HEIGHT COUPLED WITH STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND
   ISOLATED DMGG WIND GUST POTENTIAL. A COUPLE TSTMS COULD LINGER LATE
   EVENING AND OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE WRN DAKOTAS AS A
   STRENGTHENING/BROADENING OF THE NOCTURNAL LLJ OCCURS. 
   HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY REGARDING TSTM COVERAGE LIMITS CONFIDENCE FOR
   AN UPGRADE TO A SLIGHT RISK IN THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..ROGERS.. 07/24/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z