Sep 29, 2016 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Sep 29 05:55:02 UTC 2016 (20160929 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160929 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160929 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20160929 0600 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 290555

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CDT THU SEP 29 2016

   VALID 301200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A GRADUAL FILLING OF THE DAY 1 OH/TN VALLEYS CLOSED LOW IS EXPECTED
   ON FRIDAY AS THIS SYSTEM SHIFTS NORTH/NORTHWEST WITH ITS CENTER
   REACHING THE MIDWEST...AND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY MOVES INTO THE
   GREAT LAKES REGION BY 01/12Z.  MEANWHILE...WEAK HEIGHT FALLS ARE
   FORECAST FROM THE SOUTHWEST STATES TO THE GREAT PLAINS ATTENDANT TO
   TRANSIENT MIDLEVEL IMPULSES.  THE LEADING EXTENT OF A LARGE-SCALE
   TROUGH MOVES INLAND IN THE WEST...WITH A COUPLE OF MIDLEVEL IMPULSES
   ROTATING INLAND ACROSS WA/ORE AND FAR NORTHERN CA.

   ...OH TO IL...
   A NARROW CORRIDOR OF PRIMARILY MARGINAL INSTABILITY MAY EXTEND FROM
   PORTIONS OF OH THROUGH NORTHERN INDIANA TO PARTS OF EASTERN AND
   SOUTHERN IL FRIDAY...THOUGH MODELS SUGGEST BULK SHEAR SHOULD TEND TO
   WEAKEN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AS THE CENTER OF THE 500-MB CLOSED LOW
   SHIFTS INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY.  THESE FACTORS SUGGEST THUNDERSTORM
   DEVELOPMENT WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS DISCUSSION AREA INTO FRIDAY
   AFTERNOON...GIVEN WEAK 500-MB HEIGHT FALLS AND AS A LOBE OF
   VORTICITY EMBEDDED WITHIN THE CLOSED LOW ROTATES WESTWARD. 
   HOWEVER...MARGINAL INSTABILITY AND DECREASING BULK SHEAR PRECLUDE
   THE INTRODUCTION OF SEVERE PROBABILITIES.

   ...EASTERN NC/SOUTHEAST VA...
   DESPITE WEAK FORCING ALOFT...GIVEN NEUTRAL 12-HOUR 500-MB HEIGHT
   CHANGES...MODERATE INSTABILITY ACROSS THESE AREAS SHOULD AID IN
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES
   FROM THE WEST.  ALTHOUGH EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR OF 20-30 KT SUGGESTS
   STORM ORGANIZATION WOULD BE POSSIBLE...THE PRESENCE OF WEAK LAPSE
   RATES AND THE LACK OF STRONG FORCING ALOFT PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF
   SEVERE-WEATHER PROBABILITIES.

   ..PETERS.. 09/29/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z