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Nov 25, 2009 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Nov 25 05:36:43 UTC 2009  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  |  
SPC Day 2 0700Z Outlook Categorical SPC Day 2 0700Z Outlook Categorical Legend
 Forecast Discussion

   SPC AC 250535
   
   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1135 PM CST TUE NOV 24 2009
   
   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z
   
   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   THANKSGIVING WEATHER INTEREST WILL BE ON THE EVOLUTION OF A
   DEEP/COLD TROUGH OVER THE ERN PARTS OF THE COUNTRY.  THIS TROUGH
   WILL BECOME NEGATIVELY-TILTED OVER THE UPR OH VLY THURSDAY AFTN AND
   THEN TRANSLATE ENE INTO THE MID-ATLC REGION...ACCOMPANIED BY
   180-METER/12-HR HEIGHT FALLS.  NWLY FLOW IN WAKE OF THE SYSTEM WILL
   FORCE A CDFNT WELL S INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO AND FL STRAITS BY
   THURSDAY NIGHT.
   
   UPSTREAM...A NEW UPR TROUGH WILL ARRIVE ONSHORE THE PAC NW WHILE A
   SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCE MIGRATES OVER NRN MEXICO. 
   
   ...MID-ATLC REGION...
   STRONG PV-ANOMALY AND MID-LVL LAPSE RATES APCHG 7 DEG C PER KM WILL
   ACCOMPANY THE TROUGH TRANSITION TO NEGATIVE-TILT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   REGION THURSDAY AFTN/NIGHT.  FCST SOUNDINGS EXHIBIT A FEW HOURS OF
   SMALL ELEVATED CAPE...AND GIVEN SUCH STRONG UVV EXPECTED...SPORADIC
   BURSTS OF LIGHTNING WILL LIKELY OCCUR.  
   
   ...CSTL PAC NW...
   STEEPENING LAPSE RATES IN THE MOIST...POST-FRONTAL REGIME WILL BE
   FAVORABLE FOR SHOWERS THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE REGION.  MID-LVL
   TEMPERATURES ACCOMPANYING THE UPR TROUGH APPROACH MINUS 30 DEG C AND
   CLOUD-TOPS WILL PROBABLY BE SUFFICIENTLY HIGH TO PRODUCE LIGHTNING.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/25/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z

        
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Page last modified: November 25, 2009
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