Feb 19, 2018 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Feb 19 07:00:45 UTC 2018 (20180219 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180219 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180219 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180219 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 190700

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CST Mon Feb 19 2018

   Valid 201200Z - 211200Z


   Thunderstorms are forecast to occur from the southern Plains
   northeast to the Great Lakes on Tuesday.

   A highly amplified flow field aloft will continue across the U.S.
   Tuesday and Tuesday night, with the long-wave pattern remaining
   fixed/quasi-stationary.  At smaller scales, short-wave troughing
   embedded within southwesterly flow ahead of the main upper trough
   will shift northeastward across the Plains, while on the back side
   of the main trough, a second short-wave feature will dig south
   across the eastern Pacific/West Coast states/Great Basin.

   At the surface, cold air will surge southeast across the Plains and
   east across the upper Midwest/Upper Great Lakes region.  At the
   leading edge of this polar air intrusion, the advancing cold front
   should reach a position extending from Ohio southwest to southern
   and eastern Texas by 21/12z (Wednesday morning).

   Showers and thunderstorms will accompany the cold frontal advance,
   with weak instability limiting overall lightning coverage with
   northward extent.  Farther south, greater thunderstorm coverage is
   expected -- largely elevated in an anafrontal scenario.  While more
   appreciable warm-sector instability will exist over Texas, afternoon
   capping should hinder appreciable surface-based convective risk. 
   This -- plus relatively modest elevated instability expected behind
   the front -- suggests that any severe risk should remain quite
   limited at best.  As such, even a low-probability risk area will not
   be included at this time.

   ..Goss.. 02/19/2018