Feb 27, 2015 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri Feb 27 06:46:18 UTC 2015 (20150227 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150227 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150227 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150227 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 270646

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CST FRI FEB 27 2015

   VALID 281200Z - 011200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED WEAK THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR POSSIBLE
   SATURDAY ACROSS PARTS OF THE WEST...MAINLY FROM PARTS OF THE GREAT
   BASIN INTO WESTERN COLORADO...AND ACROSS COASTAL AREAS OF
   CALIFORNIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BLOCKING RIDGE IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND UPPER RIDGING AMPLIFYING
   ACROSS MUCH OF THE SRN TIER OF THE U.S. /FROM NM EWD/ WILL RESULT IN
   SWD MOVEMENT OF AN AMPLIFIED MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH CA/NV. 
   BY 12Z SUNDAY...THIS TROUGH SHOULD EXTEND SWWD FROM THE GREAT BASIN
   TO OFF THE CA COAST WITH A MID-LEVEL CLOSED LOW CENTERED NEAR THE
   SOUTH-CENTRAL CA COAST.

   ...COASTAL CA AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN TO WRN CO...
   THE ONLY CHANGE FOR THIS OUTLOOK PERIOD IS TO EXTEND THE GENERAL
   TSTM AREA NWD TO INCLUDE MORE OF NRN CA WHERE MODELS SUGGEST SOME
   POTENTIAL FOR TSTMS.  COLD MIDLEVEL TEMPERATURES ATTENDANT TO THE
   MID-UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTRIBUTE TO STEEPENING LOW-MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES WITH WEAK INSTABILITY.  GREATEST POTENTIAL FOR ISOLATED
   TO WIDELY SCATTERED TSTMS SHOULD EXTEND FROM PARTS OF ERN NV INTO
   WRN CO WITHIN THE EXIT REGION OF A 60-70 KT WSWLY MIDLEVEL JET AND
   ALONG AND WEST OF THE CA COAST INVOF THE DEVELOPING MIDLEVEL CLOSED
   CIRCULATION.  DESPITE WEAK DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AND MEAGER
   INSTABILITY...COLD 500-MB TEMPERATURES /-26 TO -28 C/ COULD PROVE
   FAVORABLE FOR SMALL HAIL WITH TSTMS ACROSS WRN CA. 

   ...SOUTH FL...
   ELY LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL ALLOW FOR MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS SOUTH FL
   ON SATURDAY.  DESPITE THIS MOISTENING SUPPORTING WEAK
   INSTABILITY...POOR LAPSE RATES AND WEAK FORCING ALOFT DUE TO THE
   AFOREMENTIONED HEIGHT RISES SUGGEST THE TSTM POTENTIAL SHOULD REMAIN
   LESS THAN 10 PERCENT.

   ..PETERS.. 02/27/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z