Dec 22, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Dec 22 06:55:04 UTC 2014 (20141222 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141222 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141222 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 102,249 8,450,758 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...
MARGINAL 72,312 11,183,953 Jacksonville, FL...Tampa, FL...Birmingham, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141222 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 102,248 8,429,201 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...
5 % 73,139 11,368,410 Jacksonville, FL...Birmingham, AL...Columbus, GA...Jackson, MS...Beaumont, TX...
   SPC AC 220655

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1255 AM CST MON DEC 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM A PORTION OF THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY INTO THE GULF COASTAL STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM EXTREME SERN TX THROUGH
   THE SERN U.S. AND NRN FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM SOUTHERN
   PARTS OF THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY THROUGH THE GULF COAST STATES
   TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THREATS WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED DAMAGING
   WIND GUSTS...LARGE HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED TORNADOES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   HIGH-AMPLITUDE UPPER TROUGH WILL ADVANCE SLOWLY THROUGH THE PLAINS
   WITH AN EMBEDDED SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH REACHING THE LOWER MS
   VALLEY REGION TUESDAY EVENING. PRECEDING THE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH A LEAD IMPULSE WILL EJECT NNEWD INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WRN
   PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES. THIS WILL RESULT IN ADVANCE OF COLD
   FRONT INTO THE LOWER MS AND WRN TN VALLEYS. THE FRONT MAY STALL OVER
   THE LOWER MS VALLEY AS WEAK CYCLOGENESIS OCCURS ALONG TRAILING
   PORTIONS OF THIS BOUNDARY...BEFORE ACCELERATING EWD AS THE LOW
   DEVELOPS TOWARD THE TN VALLEY OVERNIGHT. A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD
   INTO SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES.

   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH THE GULF COASTAL REGION AND NRN FL...

   POTENTIAL FOR EARLY CONVECTION REMAINS A COMPLICATING FACTOR THIS
   FORECAST AND MAY MITIGATE BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WITH NWD
   EXTENT FROM THE GULF COAST. GREATEST CAPE /1000-1500 J/KG/ EARLY
   TUESDAY MAY EXIST FROM SERN TX THROUGH SRN LA EWD ALONG THE GULF
   COAST WHERE REMNANT EML WILL RESIDE ABOVE MID 60S F DEWPOINTS. SRN
   BRANCH OF SLY LLJ WILL INCREASE OVER THE GULF COAST REGION WITHIN
   ZONE OF MODEST HEIGHT FALLS DOWNSTREAM FROM THE SRN-STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH. THETA-E ADVECTION AND ISENTROPIC ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
   PROCESS WILL LIKELY RESULT IN AN OVERALL INCREASE IN THUNDERSTORMS
   EARLY IN PERIOD OVER THE SERN STATES ALONG AND NORTH OF THE COASTAL
   WARM FRONT. STORMS DEVELOPING NEAR COAST WILL BE ROOTED AT OR NEAR
   THE SFC...WHILE ACTIVITY FARTHER NORTH MAY INITIALLY BE SLIGHTLY
   ELEVATED. EFFECTIVE SHEAR FROM 40-50 KT WILL SUPPORT POTENTIAL FOR
   ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS AND BOWING SEGMENTS.
   CONVECTIVE EVOLUTION WILL BE COMPLEX WITH MULTIPLE MODES INCLUDING
   CLUSTERS...LINES AND AS WELL AS SOME DISCRETE CELLS POSSIBLE. GIVEN
   EXPECTED COMPLEXITY OF THE STORM EVOLUTION AND POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
   THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER PORTIONS OF THIS REGION...TOO MUCH
   UNCERTAINTY EXISTS TO INTRODUCE MORE THAN 15% SEVERE PROBABILITIES
   AT THIS TIME.

   ..DIAL.. 12/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z