Nov 23, 2014 0700 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 23 06:14:58 UTC 2014 (20141123 0700Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141123 0700Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141123 0700 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 21,107 1,851,827 Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...Mount Pleasant, SC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20141123 0700 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 21,177 1,820,244 Charleston, SC...Wilmington, NC...Greenville, NC...Jacksonville, NC...Mount Pleasant, SC...
   SPC AC 230614

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1214 AM CST SUN NOV 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE ERN
   CAROLINAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR ON MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT ACROSS
   THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD.  A FEW OF THESE STORMS COULD APPROACH SEVERE
   LEVELS ACROSS THE EASTERN CAROLINAS DURING THE MORNING AND POSSIBLY
   AGAIN IN THE AFTERNOON.

   ...CAROLINAS...
   A LONGWAVE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE MS
   VALLEY ON MONDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES EWD INTO THE SRN AND CNTRL
   APPALACHIAN MTNS. A CORRIDOR OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD BE IN
   PLACE AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST WITH SFC
   DEWPOINTS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 60S F ACROSS MUCH OF ERN GA
   AND THE ERN CAROLINAS. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING MONDAY
   AT DAYBREAK ALONG AN AXIS OF LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE NEAR THE COAST OF
   NC. IN ADDITION TO THE MORNING CONVECTION...THE NAM AND GFS
   SOLUTIONS APPEAR TO REDEVELOP STORMS FURTHER INLAND IN THE AFTERNOON
   AS THE FRONT APPROACHES. BASED ON THIS ANALYSIS...THE CURRENT
   THINKING IS THAT A MARGINAL SEVERE THREAT MAY BE ONGOING ACROSS ERN
   NC AT THE START OF THE PERIOD WITH REDEVELOPMENT AGAIN POSSIBLE IN
   THE AFTERNOON AS SFC TEMPS WARM AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES.


   NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT CHARLESTON SC BY AFTERNOON SHOW MUCAPE
   APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR NEAR 40 KT AND SUBSTANTIAL
   SPEED SHEAR FROM THE SFC TO 850 MB. DUE TO THIS ENVIRONMENT...THE
   DOMINANT STORM MODE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN MULTICELL. THE MOIST
   BOUNDARY LAYER AND RELATIVELY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES
   APPROACHING 2.00 INCHES MAY BE ENOUGH FOR MARGINALLY SEVERE WET
   DOWNBURSTS.

   ..BROYLES.. 11/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z