Apr 30, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 30 17:13:42 UTC 2016 (20160430 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160430 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160430 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 500,638 62,910,184 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160430 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 496,856 62,827,352 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Austin, TX...
   SPC AC 301713

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1213 PM CDT SAT APR 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM CNTRL TX NEWD ACROSS THE
   OH RIVER...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FROM PORTIONS OF
   TEXAS INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WITH A THREAT OF HAIL AND WIND.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BELT OF STRONG SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXTEND FROM THE SRN PLAINS
   INTO THE NERN STATES WITH TWO LOW-AMPLITUDE WAVES. ONE WILL MOVE
   FROM IL/IN EWD ACROSS THE OH VALLEY LATE IN THE AFTERNOON THROUGH
   EVENING WITH A WEAK SFC LOW ACROSS THE AREA. TO THE SW...AN INVERTED
   SFC TROUGH WILL EXIST FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY INTO SERN TX
   AND LA...WITH SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN PLACE.
   MEANWHILE...A POLAR AIR MASS WILL CONTINUE TO SURGE SWD OVER WRN
   TX...WITH THE LEADING FRONT THROUGH ALL BUT FAR SERN TX BY MON
   MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA OF ISOLATED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL FROM LATE AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING.

   ...INDIANA...OHIO...KENTUCKY...
   WEAK SLY SFC FLOW WILL KEEP LOWER 60S F DEWPOINTS IN PLACE ACROSS
   THE OH RIVER AND NEAR A DEVELOPING SFC LOW. DAYTIME HEATING WILL
   ALLOW DESTABILIZATION TO OCCUR WITH MLCAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG.
   PRIMARILY WLY FLOW WILL RESULT IN STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS FAVORABLE
   FOR SPLITTING CELLS WITH A THREAT OF HAIL. THE LATE ARRIVAL OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND LACK OF MUCH WARM ADVECTION SUGGESTS ISOLATED
   SEVERE COVERAGE. HOWEVER...AN UPGRADE TO SLIGHT RISK MAY OCCUR IF
   STORM COVERAGE EXPECTATIONS INCREASE.

   ...CNTRL INTO SERN TX...
   NEUTRAL TO RISING HEIGHTS ALOFT WILL EXIST WITH MODESTLY STRONG MID
   TO UPPER LEVEL FLOW PERSISTING OVER THE REGION. WEAK CONVERGENCE
   WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF ERN TX INTO WRN LA AS SELY SFC WINDS BRING
   TROPICAL MOISTURE FARTHER INLAND. HEATING WILL LEAD TO STRONG
   INSTABILITY WITH MLCAPE OF 2000 TO PERHAPS 3000 J/KG. SOME MODELS
   INCLUDING THE ECMWF PRODUCE A SUBSTANTIAL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS
   ACROSS MUCH OF CNTRL TO ERN TX DURING THE EVENING...APPROACHING THE
   TX COAST BY MON MORNING. GIVEN RATHER WEAK FORCING AND POTENTIAL FOR
   CAPPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WILL DEFER ANY POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK TO
   LATER OUTLOOKS. LONG STRAIGHT LINE HODOGRAPHS...STEEP LAPSE RATES
   ALOFT AND AMPLE MOISTURE WILL CONDITIONALLY FAVOR LARGE DAMAGING
   HAIL.

   ..JEWELL.. 04/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z