May 2, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat May 2 16:57:23 UTC 2015 (20150502 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150502 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150502 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 46,694 1,954,600 Rochester, MN...Eau Claire, WI...La Crosse, WI...Wausau, WI...Mason City, IA...
MARGINAL 148,739 8,313,483 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150502 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 46,335 1,937,176 Rochester, MN...Eau Claire, WI...La Crosse, WI...Wausau, WI...Mason City, IA...
5 % 148,993 8,339,683 Omaha, NE...Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...
   SPC AC 021657

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1157 AM CDT SAT MAY 02 2015

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NERN IA ACROSS WI AND INTO
   UPPER MI...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM WRN KS INTO ERN NEB AND
   INTO UPPER MI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH HAIL AND WIND ARE EXPECTED BY AFTERNOON
   FROM WISCONSIN INTO NORTHEASTERN IOWA. A MORE ISOLATED AND MARGINAL
   THREAT WILL EXIST FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO WESTERN KANSAS.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL SKIRT THE U.S./CANADIAN BORDER FROM THE
   NRN PLAINS TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES WITH INCREASING WIND PROFILES FROM
   MN INTO MI. A SURFACE TROUGH WILL EXTEND FROM LAKE SUPERIOR SWWD
   ACROSS WI...NEB...AND INTO WRN KS BY AFTERNOON WITH DEWPOINTS
   INCREASING INTO THE MID 50S F DUE TO SLY FLOW ACROSS THE PLAINS. THE
   BEST COMBINATION OF INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND LIFT WILL EXIST ACROSS
   THE UPPER MS VALLEY WITH A FEW SEVERE STORMS LIKELY.

   OTHER ISOLATED STRONG STORMS ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER S ALONG THE TROUGH
   ACROSS NEB...KS...AND THE TX PANHANDLE.

   ...WI..UPPER MI...SERN MN AND NERN IA...
   LIFT ALONG THE FRONT AND A GRADUALLY DEEPENING OF THE MOIST BOUNDARY
   LAYER WILL LEAD TO A BREAKING OF THE CAPPING INVERSION BY LATE
   AFTERNOON WITH SCATTERED STORMS LIKELY. DEWPOINTS INTO THE 50S F
   WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT STRONG UPDRAFTS GIVEN COLD
   TEMPERATURES ALOFT. DEEP-LAYER SHEAR LOOKS TO BE FAVORABLE FOR
   ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE LINEAR FORCING
   MECHANISM WILL LIKELY LEAD TO MIXED STORM MODES. LARGE HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...ERN NEB INTO WRN KS...
   STRONG HEATING AND STEEPENING LAPSE RATES WILL LEAD TO ZERO
   INHIBITION BY AFTERNOON WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP WITHIN
   THE SFC TROUGH. SHEAR WILL BE WEAK BUT DEWPOINTS NEAR 50 F ALONG
   WITH COLD PROFILES ALOFT WILL CREATE SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   PULSING UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND/OR WIND. IN
   ADDITION...A SLY LOW-LEVEL JET MAY AID IN STORM CLUSTER LONGEVITY
   INTO THE EVENING FOR THE FEW THAT REMAIN.

   ..JEWELL.. 05/02/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z