Jul 5, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jul 5 17:32:21 UTC 2015 (20150705 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150705 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150705 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 124,470 9,331,423 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
MARGINAL 218,573 17,907,621 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Grand Rapids, MI...Amarillo, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150705 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 122,460 9,273,815 Kansas City, MO...Wichita, KS...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Overland Park, KS...
5 % 221,185 18,006,420 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Oklahoma City, OK...Grand Rapids, MI...Amarillo, TX...
   SPC AC 051732

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1232 PM CDT SUN JUL 05 2015

   VALID 061200Z - 071200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM PARTS OF THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY SOUTHWEST TO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY TO THE
   TEXAS PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   AN EXTENSIVE BUT BROKEN LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN
   BE EXPECTED MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM
   SOUTHERN WISCONSIN AND NORTHERN ILLINOIS SOUTHWESTWARD INTO
   IOWA...NORTHERN MISSOURI...EASTERN KANSAS...AND NORTHERN OKLAHOMA.
   OTHER SCATTERED AFTERNOON STORMS WILL OCCUR FROM FLORIDA NORTHWARD
   TO THE MID-ATLANTIC...AND ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ROCKIES.

   ...OVERVIEW...
   A SERIES OF STRONG/PROGRESSIVE SHORTWAVE TROUGHS ORBITING A LARGER
   COMPLEX OF UPPER LOWS ACROSS NORTHERN CANADA WILL ACT TO
   SUBSTANTIALLY DAMPEN THE BROAD SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ACROSS THE INTERIOR
   WEST AND CENTRAL CONUS THIS PERIOD. THE SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT
   ACCOMPANYING THE LEADING IMPULSE WILL TRANSLATE EAST ACROSS THE
   UPPER MS VALLEY AND WRN/UPPER GREAT LAKES THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON
   AND EVENING AS STRONGER UPPER FLOW AND FORCING SPREAD EAST ALONG AND
   NORTH OF THE INTERNATIONAL BORDER. MODEST POST-FRONTAL SURFACE
   PRESSURE RISES FROM THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES TO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
   WILL PROMOTE A SOUTH/SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT FROM
   THE CORN BELT TO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. BY LATE MONDAY
   AFTERNOON THE FRONT WILL BE SITUATED FROM WI/IA SOUTHWESTWARD TO THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...COINCIDENT WITH A CORRIDOR OF STRONG TO
   LOCALLY EXTREME INSTABILITY.

   ELSEWHERE....A COMPACT AND PERSISTENT MIDLEVEL LOW...CURRENTLY OVER
   THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...WILL DEAMPLIFY AND EJECT NORTHEASTWARD
   TOWARD THE MID-ATLANTIC...AHEAD OF THE STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS
   OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT LAKES REGION.

   ...GREAT LAKES TO CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
   AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MAKE QUICK PROGRESS ALONG THE
   INTERNATIONAL BORDER WITH 500MB HEIGHT FALLS AROUND 30-60M PER 12H
   FORECAST TO SPREAD FROM MN ACROSS NORTHERN WI DURING THE DAY. MODEST
   TO STRONG SURFACE-BASED DESTABILIZATION APPEARS POSSIBLE AHEAD OF
   THE FRONT AND WEAK SURFACE WAVE OVER WI WHERE EFFECTIVE SHEAR
   ACCOMPANYING THE LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT WILL LIKELY BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR STORM PERSISTENCE/ORGANIZATION. PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY
   WITH NORTHWARD EXTENT IS THE DEGREE TO WHICH AIRMASS CAN SUPPORT
   SURFACE BASED CONVECTION GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR EARLY-DAY
   CLOUDS/CONVECTIVE DEBRIS FROM OVERNIGHT ACTIVITY. PRESENT
   INDICATIONS SUGGEST BEST PROSPECTS FOR SEVERE STORMS...POSSIBLY IN
   THE FORM OF LINE SEGMENTS WITH EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS...WILL EVOLVE
   ACROSS CENTRAL AND SRN WI DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   THE CHANCE FOR WIND DAMAGE AND PERHAPS A TORNADO WILL PEAK IN THE
   21-00 UTC TIME FRAME.

   SHEAR AND LARGE SCALE SUPPORT FOR ASCENT DECREASE MARKEDLY ALONG THE
   TRAILING COLD FRONT FROM IA SOUTHWESTWARD TO KS/NORTHERN OK.
   HOWEVER...LIFT ALONG THE TRAILING BOUNDARY WILL COINCIDE WITH THE
   DIURNAL MAXIMUM IN DESTABILIZATION ALONG THIS CORRIDOR WHERE SBCAPE
   IS FORECAST TO RANGE FROM 2000-4000 J/KG BY LATE AFTERNOON. GIVEN
   MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY AND BULK SHEAR VALUES IN THE RANGE OF
   15-30KT...IT SEEMS REASONABLE TO EXPECT A FEW SEVERE STORMS WITH
   DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. WHILE WEAKEST
   SHEAR ALONG THE BOUNDARY WILL EXIST FROM NORTHERN MO TO
   KS/OK...DCAPE VALUES IN THE HOT AND DEEPLY MIXED PRE-FRONTAL AIRMASS
   ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 1000 J/KG BY 21 UTC. SCATTERED DAMAGING WIND
   POTENTIAL SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE BROKEN CONVECTIVE LINE AS IT
   TRAVERSES THIS INSTABILITY AXIS BETWEEN 21-03 UTC.

   ..CARBIN.. 07/05/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z