Dec 3, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 17:21:33 UTC 2016 (20161203 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20161203 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20161203 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20161203 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 031721

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1121 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   VALID 041200Z - 051200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED FROM SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH
   THE CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES SUNDAY.

   ...WESTERN AND CENTRAL GULF COAST...
   THE AMPLIFICATION OF A MIDLEVEL TROUGH OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST
   WILL OCCUR IN THE WAKE OF A PROGRESSIVE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. AS THIS OCCURS...A
   SOUTHERN STREAM LOW WILL PROGRESS EASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO
   TOWARDS THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY. SUFFICIENT TROPOSPHERIC
   MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE TO SUPPORT PERIODS OF WIDESPREAD
   PRECIPITATION ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF TEXAS. THE
   RAIN-COOLED BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD RESULT IN THE MARINE BOUNDARY
   LAYER GENERALLY REMAINING OFFSHORE ACROSS THE WESTERN GULF COAST...
   WITH THE ONLY EXCEPTION POSSIBLY BEING DEEP SOUTH TEXAS NEAR THE
   BROWNSVILLE AREA. AS A RESULT...THE POTENTIAL FOR SURFACE-BASED
   CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED ACROSS NEAR MOST OF THE TEXAS GULF
   COAST. 

   A SEPARATE NORTHWARD INTRUSION OF THE WARM SECTOR IS FORECAST TO
   OCCUR FROM FAR SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA INTO THE WESTERN FLORIDA
   PANHANDLE...AHEAD OF A WEAK FRONTAL WAVE. THE POTENTIAL FOR EARLY
   CONVECTION WILL AFFECT THE DEGREE OF WEAK DIURNAL DESTABILIZATION
   THAT CAN OCCUR...BUT A FEW STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING
   THE MORNING...BEFORE A BELT OF RELATIVELY STRONGER LOW-LEVEL
   SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW SHIFTS NORTHEAST OF THE REGION.

   ..ROGERS.. 12/03/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z