Feb 22, 2018 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 22 17:31:31 UTC 2018 (20180222 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20180222 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20180222 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20180222 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221731

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CST Thu Feb 22 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 241200Z


   Scattered thunderstorms are expected over much of Texas and
   Oklahoma, with a few extending into the Mississippi and Ohio
   Valleys. Small hail is possible across parts of northern Texas into
   Oklahoma during the day.

   A southwesterly flow regime aloft will persist from the southern
   Plains into the Northeast as an upper trough moves across the
   Rockies and into the High Plains by the end of the period.
   Meanwhile, and upper ridge will remain intact across the Southeast. 
   At the surface, a stalled front from the middle MS Valley into
   southeast TX will retreat northward late in the day, with
   strengthening southerly wind profiles in anticipation of the
   approaching shortwave trough. The result will be a substantial area
   of elevated thunderstorms across much of central and northern TX
   into OK during the day, wither other activity developing across AR
   and MO as well.

   ...Northern TX into southern OK...
   While a cool surface air mass will remain in place, very strong
   warm/theta-e advection will occur during the day and into the
   evening with southerly 850 mb flow increasing to nearly 50 kt. This
   will occur beneath cool mid/upper level profiles, with long
   hodographs in the cloud bearing layer. A large area of elevated
   thunderstorms will occur across much of northern TX during the late
   morning and spreading into OK and toward the Arklatex later in the
   day. Some model differences exist as to how much activity will form
   and how cellular it may be. However, a marginal hail threat is
   possible with the stronger cores. A Marginal Risk may be required in
   later outlooks once predictability becomes greater.

   ..Jewell.. 02/22/2018