Apr 1, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 1 17:17:23 UTC 2015 (20150401 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150401 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150401 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 79,992 8,245,164 St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...Springfield, MO...Evansville, IN...Bloomington, IN...
MARGINAL 110,494 14,578,265 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150401 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 80,269 8,048,001 St. Louis, MO...Louisville, KY...Springfield, MO...Evansville, IN...Bloomington, IN...
5 % 109,291 14,695,476 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Fort Wayne, IN...
   SPC AC 011717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1217 PM CDT WED APR 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE OZARKS OF SRN MO TO
   THE LOWER OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLGT RISK FROM
   SERN KS TO THE OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW SEVERE...ARE FORECAST ACROSS THE OZARKS OF
   SOUTHERN MISSOURI INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY THURSDAY.  HAIL AND
   LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS.

   ...OZARKS TO LOWER OH VALLEY...

   NRN STREAM SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL EJECT EWD ALONG THE INTERNATIONAL
   BORDER INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD. 
   THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE A SFC COLD FRONT INTO CNTRL IL...SWWD
   ACROSS CNTRL MO BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE IT SHOULD BECOME THE FOCUS
   FOR POTENTIALLY STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS.

   LATEST SHORT-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY AGGRESSIVE IN ALLOWING A
   SUBSTANTIAL PLUME OF WARM AIR AT 800MB TO ADVECT ACROSS SRN KS/NRN
   OK INTO SRN MO AHEAD OF AFOREMENTIONED SFC FRONT.  THIS WARM LAYER
   SHOULD PROVE EFFICIENT IN SUPPRESSING SFC-BASED CONVECTION ALONG THE
   WIND SHIFT MUCH OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS MO/KS/OK/AR. 
   DOWNSTREAM...IT APPEARS BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING...COMBINED WITH
   FRONTAL ASCENT SHOULD INDUCE TSTM DEVELOPMENT BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON
   ACROSS IL/IND WITHIN STRONGLY SHEARED SWLY FLOW REGIME.  WHILE
   FORECAST BUOYANCY IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY STRONG ACROSS
   THIS REGION...ROTATING UPDRAFTS ARE CERTAINLY POSSIBLE WHERE FRONTAL
   FORCING/STORM MERGERS DO NOT ENCOURAGE LINEAR CLUSTERING.  HAIL/
   WIND ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS...ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO CAN NOT
   BE RULED OUT ALONG ERN FRINGE OF STRONGER INSTABILITY WHERE CAP DOES
   NOT SUPPRESS SFC-BASED CONVECTION.

   ALONG THE TRAILING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE OZARKS...SFC-BASED
   CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO DEVELOP THROUGH 03/00Z...AS BOTH THE
   NAM/GFS SUGGEST BOUNDARY LAYER MAY STRUGGLE TO WARM ENOUGH FOR
   PARCELS TO REACH THEIR CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES.  THUNDERSTORMS ARE
   MORE LIKELY WITHIN POST-FRONTAL REGIME RESULTING IN PARCEL ASCENT
   AOA 850MB.  STRONG CLOUD-LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT ROTATING UPDRAFTS
   AND LARGE HAIL IS CERTAINLY POSSIBLE.

   ...ELSEWHERE...

   TSTM POTENTIAL IS CONDITIONAL ALONG DRY LINE ACROSS ERN OK/NCNTRL
   TX.  LARGE SCALE FORCING IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN RATHER WEAK ACROSS
   THIS REGION BUT STRONG HEATING COULD INDUCE A FEW
   STORMS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NCNTRL TX WHERE FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR
   KSEP AT 22Z EXHIBITS SBCAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000 J/KG.  IF STORMS FORM
   ALONG THE DRY LINE LARGE HAIL WOULD BE A THREAT AND CONDITIONAL
   SEVERE PROBS WOULD BE REQUIRED TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THREAT.

   ISOLATED TSTMS MAY ALSO DEVELOP ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA INTO THE
   SERN U.S. AND INSTABILITY MAY PROVE SUFFICIENT FOR A FEW ROBUST
   UPDRAFTS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS OR SMALL HAIL.

   ..DARROW.. 04/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z