Feb 1, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 1 17:17:26 UTC 2015 (20150201 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150201 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150201 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150201 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 011717

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1117 AM CST SUN FEB 01 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS FLORIDA AND NEAR THE
   NORTH CAROLINA OUTER BANKS...MAINLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND EARLY
   AFTERNOON.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A PROGRESSIVE/INCREASINGLY LOW-AMPLITUDE LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL
   PREVAIL OVER THE CONUS IN THE WAKE OF A FAST/EASTWARD-MOVING
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN SEABOARD/WESTERN ATLANTIC.
   MEANWHILE...A LOW LATITUDE UPPER-LOW WILL MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER
   WESTERN MEXICO.

   ...FL/COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES...
   SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY SOME EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THE
   COLD FRONT AS IT SPREADS SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY.
   WITH THE PARENT UPPER TROUGH QUICKLY ADVANCING EASTWARD TOWARD/OFF
   THE MID-ATLANTIC/NORTHEAST STATES COAST...A TREND OF VEERING
   LOW-LEVEL WINDS/WEAKENING CONVERGENCE CAN BE EXPECTED IN VICINITY OF
   THE FRONT. THIS SCENARIO...IN CONJUNCTION WITH WEAK LAPSE
   RATES/BUOYANCY...SUGGESTS ESSENTIALLY NO SEVERE RISK WITH THE
   COVERAGE/PROBABILITY OF THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED.

   ..GUYER.. 02/01/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z