Sep 24, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 24 17:12:48 UTC 2016 (20160924 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160924 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160924 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 49,847 14,959,044 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160924 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 49,434 14,956,546 Chicago, IL...Milwaukee, WI...Madison, WI...Aurora, IL...Rockford, IL...
   SPC AC 241712

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1212 PM CDT SAT SEP 24 2016

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE SUNDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST.

   ...MIDWEST...

   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE UPPER GREAT
   LAKES/MIDWEST REGION DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE DAY2 PERIOD AS
   STRONG 500MB SPEED MAX DIGS INTO MN AFTER DARK.  IN RESPONSE TO THIS
   DIGGING SPEED MAX...A SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL INFLUENCE FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ACROSS THE MIDWEST SUCH THAT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
   DEVELOP AND FOCUS ALONG A SURGING COLD FRONT.

   HIGH PW AIR MASS WILL EXTEND AHEAD OF THE FRONT FROM THE SRN
   PLAINS...ACROSS THE MID MS VALLEY INTO THE UPPER GREAT LAKES. 
   VALUES NEAR 1.75 INCHES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT FRONTAL
   CONVECTION AS INHIBITION WILL BE WEAK DUE TO EXTENSIVE
   CLOUDS/PRECIP.  LATEST SHORT-RANGE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THE STRONGEST
   BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING WILL OCCUR ALONG THE FRONT FROM THE ARKLATEX
   INTO NRN IL.  AS 70F SFC DEW POINTS RETURN TO THIS REGION IT APPEARS
   1000-1500 J/KG SBCAPE COULD BE IN PLACE PRIOR TO TSTM INITIATION. 
   SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 25-30KT SHOULD BE ADEQUATE FOR
   ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL CLUSTERS...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE FORCED WIND
   SHIFT.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE THE
   PRIMARY RISKS.

   ..DARROW.. 09/24/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z