Apr 16, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 16 17:26:48 UTC 2014 (20140416 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140416 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140416 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140416 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 17,573 3,144,431 Cape Coral, FL...Sebring, FL...Chokoloskee, FL...
   SPC AC 161724

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1224 PM CDT WED APR 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN
   AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE TOMORROW ACROSS
   PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA.

   ...PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL FLORIDA PENINSULA...
   RICH DEEP MOISTURE WILL SPREAD NWD WHILE MODEST LOW-LEVEL WARM
   ADVECTION OCCURS WELL IN ADVANCE OF LOW-AMPLITUDE...MID-LEVEL
   TROUGHING THAT WILL BEGIN TO INFLUENCE THE GULF. MINOR MID-LEVEL
   HEIGHT RISES ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE DAY...LIKELY SIGNALING WARMER
   CONDITIONS ON D2/THU THAN D1/WED...AND SFC TEMPERATURES WILL
   PROBABLY REACH THE LOWER-MIDDLE 80S. THIS...COMBINED WITH
   INCREASINGLY MARITIME-INFLUENCED SFC TRAJECTORIES WITH ELYS
   SUPPORTING MIDDLE/UPPER 60S SFC DEWPOINTS...IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT
   SBCAPE ON THE ORDER OF 1500-2000 J/KG PROVIDED PARTIAL OR COMPLETE
   INSOLATION. DESPITE MODEST MID/HIGH-LEVEL LAPSE RATES...SUCH
   BUOYANCY WILL BE AIDED BY THE PERSISTENCE OF COOL H5 TEMPERATURES
   BETWEEN -12C AND -10C SURMOUNTING HIGH THETA-E WITHIN THE BOUNDARY
   LAYER. OF NOTE...NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE LIKELY EXHIBITING A COOL
   BIAS BASED ON SIMULATED SUPPRESSED PBL MIXING...AS AFFIRMED BY
   COMPARISONS TO CURRENT SFC OBSERVATIONS.

   GIVEN THE ELY FLOW IMPINGING ON DIURNALLY STRENGTHENING SEA BREEZE
   CIRCULATIONS...THE W-COAST SEA BREEZE WILL BE FAVORED FOR CONVECTIVE
   INITIATION DURING THE AFTERNOON. PW VALUES AROUND 1.6-1.8 INCHES
   SUGGEST AMPLE MOISTURE WILL BE PRESENT FOR SCATTERED-NUMEROUS
   CONVECTIVE COVERAGE...WHILE 45-60 KT OF HIGH LEVEL FLOW PROMOTE
   EFFICIENT CONVECTIVE VENTILATION AND MODEST SHEAR THROUGH THE DEEP
   CONVECTIVE CLOUD LAYER. AS SUCH...MULTICELL CLUSTERS WILL BE THE
   FAVORED CONVECTIVE MODE...WITH DMGG WINDS AND SVR HAIL POSSIBLE.
   STRONG DIURNAL HEATING AND STEEPENING OF LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES OVER
   THE INTERIOR WILL HAVE A TENDENCY TO SUPPORT INLAND PROPAGATION OF
   THIS ACTIVITY...THOUGH THE MOST INTENSE STORMS ARE CURRENTLY
   FORECAST TO REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE WEST-COAST METRO AREAS. FOR
   LOCATIONS NORTH OF A LINE FROM TAMPA BAY AREA TO LAKELAND
   FL...SOMEWHAT LOWER BOUNDARY-LAYER THETA-E WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY
   LESS BUOYANCY AND A LOWER RISK FOR SVR STORMS.

   ...ELSEWHERE ACROSS PARTS OF THE EASTERN GULF COAST...
   INCREASING FORCING FOR ASCENT ACCOMPANYING MID-LEVEL TROUGHING OVER
   THE GULF OF MEXICO IS EXPECTED TO YIELD AN INCREASE IN SHOWER AND
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THU NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT
   EXPECTED TO BE SEVERE.

   ...SIERRA NEVADA MOUNTAINS AND THE GREAT BASIN...
   MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS/ASCENT PRECEDING A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING
   THE NWRN UNITED STATES WILL OVERLIE DIURNALLY ENHANCED OROGRAPHIC
   CIRCULATIONS AMIDST MODEST MID-LEVEL MOISTURE AND STEEP TROPOSPHERIC
   LAPSE RATES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS.

   ...NORTHWEST TEXAS AND FAR SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
   A NE/SW-ORIENTED SFC COLD FRONT OVER THE SRN PLAINS WILL WEAKEN
   WHILE ACCOMPANYING WEAKENING CONVERGENCE INTERCEPTS ONLY PARTIALLY
   MODIFIED GULF MOISTURE. THE TRACK OF A LOW-AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE FORECAST TO CROSS PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS IS GENERALLY
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN N OF ANY OF THE RETURNING MOISTURE SUPPORTING
   APPRECIABLE BUOYANCY. ISOLATED NON-SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS COULD OCCUR
   WITHIN THE FRONTAL ZONE DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...AIDED BY
   DIURNAL HEATING.

   ..COHEN.. 04/16/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z