May 27, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Fri May 27 17:27:21 UTC 2016 (20160527 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160527 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160527 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 382,665 36,108,817 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160527 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 383,060 36,146,798 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
   SPC AC 271727

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1227 PM CDT FRI MAY 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM TX TO THE UPPER MS
   VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM TEXAS TO THE UPPER
   MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...MAINLY ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS SHOULD
   DAMPEN ON D2 AS IT MOVES TOWARDS THE UPPER MS VALLEY. AN
   ACCOMPANYING SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD TRACK IN A SIMILAR MANNER AND
   WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD. MID/UPPER-LEVEL HEIGHT RISES WILL BECOME
   PERVASIVE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL STATES TO THE SOUTH OF THE EJECTING
   TROUGH. A WAVY DRYLINE SHOULD EXTEND FROM CENTRAL KS TO THE EDWARDS
   PLATEAU AT PEAK HEATING. THE SOUTHERN PORTION WILL RETREAT WEST
   DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT AS A SURGE OF RICH LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
   ADVANCES NORTHWEST AMID MASS RESPONSE OCCURRING DOWNSTREAM OF AN
   UPPER JET OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO.

   ...MID/UPPER MS VALLEY...
   GUIDANCE DIFFERS GREATLY ON THE DEGREE OF BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
   AHEAD OF THE WEAKENING SURFACE CYCLONE /FROM UPPER 50S IN THE 00Z
   ECMWF TO UPPER 60S IN THE 12Z NAM/. AS SUCH...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS
   IN THE DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION WHERE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT SHOULD BE
   RELATIVELY GREATEST ACROSS EAST IA AND ADJACENT AREAS OF BORDERING
   STATES. GUIDANCE IS CONSISTENT ON DEPICTING VEER-BACK-VEER WIND
   PROFILES WHICH SHOULD LIMIT SUSTENANCE OF SUPERCELL STRUCTURES AND
   GENERALLY SUPPORT A PREDOMINANT MULTICELL MODE. ISOLATED SEVERE
   HAIL/WIND APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN HAZARDS. 

   ...EDWARDS PLATEAU VICINITY IN WEST-CENTRAL TX...
   WITH MODEST MID-LEVEL HEIGHT FALLS DURING THE DIURNAL HEATING CYCLE
   AND SUBSTANTIAL RETREATING OF THE DRYLINE ON SAT
   EVENING...CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER A MESOSCALE AREA OF
   SURFACE-BASED STORMS WILL FORM IN THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.
   CONDITIONALLY IF STORMS FORM...THE SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR
   SUPERCELL STRUCTURES GIVEN STRONG BUOYANCY...STEEP LAPSE RATES...AND
   A VERTICALLY VEERING WIND PROFILE WITH HEIGHT. WILL DEFER TO D1
   OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE INTRODUCTION OF SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES. 

   ...COASTAL CAROLINAS...
   NHC IS FORECASTING POTENTIAL FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL OR
   SUB-TROPICAL CYCLONE OFF THE SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST. AT THIS
   TIME...CONSENSUS OF GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A CORRIDOR OF MODESTLY
   ENHANCED LOW-LEVEL WINDS. AS SUCH...OVERALL TORNADO PROBABILITIES
   MAY REMAIN RATHER LIMITED AND SPATIALLY CONFINED. GIVEN WIDE
   DISCREPANCIES IN SPATIOTEMPORAL DETAILS OF THIS DISTURBANCE...WILL
   DEFER TO D1 OUTLOOKS FOR POSSIBLE LOW TORNADO PROBABILITIES.

   ..GRAMS.. 05/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z