Feb 7, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Feb 7 17:30:28 UTC 2016 (20160207 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160207 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160207 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20160207 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 071730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1130 AM CST SUN FEB 07 2016

   VALID 081200Z - 091200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AFTERNOON
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

   ...SRN APPALACHIANS...

   EXIT REGION OF PRONOUNCED MID-LEVEL JET WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN
   APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY2 PERIOD.  STRONG HEIGHT FALLS AND
   DIFFLUENT FLOW ALOFT WILL ENCOURAGE CONVECTION ACROSS THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AS COLD FRONT MIGRATES ACROSS SERN KY/ERN TN.  STEEP
   LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD ENCOURAGE ROBUST THERMALS DESPITE COLD
   PROFILES AND SCT CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP.  FORECAST
   SOUNDINGS SUGGEST THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS COULD PENETRATE LEVELS
   NECESSARY FOR LIGHTNING DISCHARGE DESPITE MUCH OF THIS ACTIVITY
   BEING MOSTLY A MIX OF RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS.

   ..DARROW.. 02/07/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0700Z