Oct 22, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 22 17:21:08 UTC 2014 (20141022 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141022 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141022 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141022 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 221721

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1221 PM CDT WED OCT 22 2014

   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST OVER A PORTION
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
   RIVER VALLEY. OTHER ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY OCCUR OVER SOUTHERN
   FLORIDA...THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND A SMALL PART OF SOUTHERN NEW
   ENGLAND. NO SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE ERN U.S. IS FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY NEWD
   ALONG THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC SEABOARD INTO SRN NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY.
   FARTHER WEST AN UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE FROM THE PLAINS THROUGH
   THE MS VALLEY AND REACH THE GREAT LAKES...OH AND TN VALLEYS THURSDAY
   NIGHT. A BROAD UPPER TROUGH WILL PERSIST FROM OVER THE PACIFIC NW
   INTO THE NRN ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE SWRN STATES.


   ...ERN OK AND ERN KS INTO THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY REGION...

   A FEW ELEVATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ONGOING
   FROM ERN PORTIONS OF SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY
   REGION WITHIN ZONE OF WEAK ASCENT EAST OF UPPER TROUGH AXIS. THE
   TENDENCY WILL BE FOR THIS ZONE OF MODEST ASCENT TO SHIFT EAST OF
   WEAK INSTABILITY AXIS...SUGGESTING TREND SHOULD BE FOR MORNING
   CONVECTION TO UNDERGO A GRADUAL DECREASE.

   ...PACIFIC NW...

   STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WITHIN
   THE BROAD CYCLONIC FLOW REGIME WILL CONTRIBUTE TO WEAK INSTABILITY.
   ZONES OF DEEPER ASCENT ACCOMPANYING EMBEDDED VORTICITY MAXIMA WILL
   FURTHER PROMOTE DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED CONVECTION...SOME OF WHICH
   MAY BECOME CAPABLE OF PRODUCING LIGHTNING.

   ...SRN FL...

   A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE OVER DEEP S FL IN VICINITY
   OF STALLED FRONT.

   ...SRN NEW ENGLAND...

   SCATTERED CONVECTION INCLUDING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING MAINLY
   OFFSHORE IN ASSOCIATION WITH UPPER LOW CIRCULATION WILL AFFECT
   PORTIONS OF SRN NEW ENGLAND.

   ..DIAL.. 10/22/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z