Jun 30, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 30 17:28:37 UTC 2016 (20160630 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160630 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160630 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 38,128 3,994,070 Albany, NY...Scranton, PA...Schenectady, NY...Utica, NY...Troy, NY...
MARGINAL 160,957 44,511,972 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160630 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 38,131 4,035,044 Albany, NY...Scranton, PA...Schenectady, NY...Utica, NY...Troy, NY...
5 % 159,408 44,839,661 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Washington, DC...
   SPC AC 301728

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1228 PM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS ERN NY...VT...NERN PA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM NY AND WRN NEW ENGLAND SWD
   INTO THE DELMARVA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ERN CO INTO CNTRL KS AND
   NWRN OK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL AND STRONG WINDS ARE
   EXPECTED FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   NORTHEASTERN STATES...AND ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO INTO CENTRAL
   KANSAS LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH OVERNIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WITH SFC LOW
   DEEPENING OVER WRN QUEBEC. A COLD FRONT WILL TRAIL SWD FROM THIS
   LOW...AND WILL SURGE EWD ACROSS NY AND PA DURING THE DAY. AHEAD OF
   THIS FRONT...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F WILL EXIST ALONG WITH
   STRONG HEATING RESULTING IN SUFFICIENT INSTABILITY FOR
   THUNDERSTORMS. INCREASING WIND SHEAR WILL FAVOR A FEW SEVERE STORMS
   MAINLY OVER ERN NY...WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY SWD TOWARD THE
   DELMARVA.

   TO THE W...MODEST MIDLEVEL ZONAL FLOW WILL EXIST OVER THE CNTRL
   PLAINS WITH ELY UPSLOPE FLOW AND HIGHER DEWPOINTS NEAR A STALLED
   FRONT. WARM ADVECTION ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ESPECIALLY DURING THE
   EVENING WITH A STRONG LOW-LEVEL JET WILL AID IN SCATTERED STORM
   DEVELOPMENT FROM ERN CO INTO KS OVERNIGHT WITH ISOLATED SEVERE
   STORMS EXPECTED.

   ...MUCH OF NY SWD INTO THE DELMARVA AND OVER WRN NEW ENGLAND...
   STRONG HEATING WILL OCCUR DURING THE DAY ALONG WITH SOME MOISTURE
   ADVECTION. ALTHOUGH BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE IS DIFFICULT TO
   FORECAST...DEWPOINTS INTO THE LOWER 60S F SEEM REASONABLE. THIS WILL
   LEAD TO AROUND 1000 J/KG MUCAPE AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT FROM PA/NY
   INTO WRN NEW ENGLAND BY LATE EVENING. CONVERGENCE ALONG THE COLD
   FRONT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY...AS WILL WIND FIELDS WITH 30+ KT
   850 MB FLOW. FORECAST HODOGRAPHS WOULD APPEAR TO FAVOR SUPERCELLS
   GIVEN SUFFICIENT TURNING WITH HEIGHT AND THE OVERALL FAVORABLE
   FORCING FOR ASCENT THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. THUS...HAVE UPGRADED TO A
   SLIGHT RISK FOR HAIL...WIND...AND PERHAPS A BRIEF/WEAK TORNADO.

   TO THE S...LIFT WILL BE MUCH LESS...BUT INSTABILITY WILL BE GREATER
   INTO THE DELMARVA. HODOGRAPHS HERE ARE MORE STRAIGHT-LINE AND WOULD
   SUPPORT SPLITTING CELLS WITH LARGE HAIL CONDITIONALLY POSSIBLE. HAVE
   EXTENDED THE MARGINAL RISK INTO THIS AREA...BUT STORM COVERAGE DOES
   NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT A SLIGHT AT THIS TIME.

   ...ERN CO INTO CNTRL KS AND FAR NWRN OK...
   STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE FRONT RANGE BY AFTERNOON WITH WEAK
   INSTABILITY AND ELY LOW-LEVEL FLOW. A MARGINAL HAIL/WIND RISK WILL
   EXIST WITH THIS ACTIVITY. THESE STORMS MAY EVOLVE INTO CLUSTERS AND
   PERSIST AS THEY MOVE EWD ALONG THE WARM ADVECTION ZONE ON THE NOSE
   OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET...WHERE SHEAR PROFILES WILL ALSO BE A BIT
   STRONGER AND MAY SUPPORT A CONTINUED WIND/HAIL THREAT INTO THE
   EVENING.

   ..JEWELL.. 06/30/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z