Jul 23, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 23 17:03:49 UTC 2014 (20140723 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140723 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140723 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 47,015 316,244 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
Probabilistic Graphic
20140723 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 46,627 312,469 Bismarck, ND...Minot, ND...Mandan, ND...Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...
5 % 321,048 20,143,207 Charlotte, NC...Virginia Beach, VA...Omaha, NE...Raleigh, NC...Norfolk, VA...
   SPC AC 231703

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1203 PM CDT WED JUL 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERN
   PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE NORTHERN GREAT PLAINS
   ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH ADDITIONAL STRONG TO
   LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS SPREADING EASTWARD TOWARD MINNESOTA AND IOWA
   OVERNIGHT. STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE STORMS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE FROM
   SOUTHEAST VIRGINIA TO EASTERN GEORGIA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A POTENT SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER SW CANADA AND THE PACIFIC NW WILL
   PIVOT E/NE ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES AND CANADIAN PRAIRIE
   PROVINCES. THIS WILL SHUNT THE HIGH PLAINS UPPER RIDGE EWD TOWARD
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...RESULTING IN HEIGHT FALLS AND A BAND OF ENHANCED
   W/SWLY FLOW SPREADING ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. AT THE SFC...A COLD FRONT WILL TRACK E/SE
   ACROSS ERN MT/NE WY INTO THE WRN DAKOTAS DURING THE EVENING...AND
   INTO THE ERN DAKOTAS BY 12Z FRIDAY. 

   FURTHER EAST...THE ERN CONUS TROUGH WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE
   PERIOD WITH A WEAKENING SFC COLD FRONT TRACKING SWD FROM THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS THROUGH THE MID-SOUTH AND INTO THE CAROLINAS.

   ...NORTHERN PLAINS...

   A CONDITIONAL SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST DURING THE LATE
   AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING FROM FAR ERN MT INTO WRN ND AND POTENTIALLY
   AS FAR SOUTH AS NW SD. WHILE SHEAR PROFILES WILL SUPPORT SUPERCELLS
   AS THE COLD FRONT TRACKS EWD ACROSS THE AREA...VERY WARM MIDLEVEL
   TEMPERATURES WILL BE HARD TO OVERCOME AS STRONGER HEIGHT FALLS AND
   FORCING FOR ASCENT DO NOT APPEAR TO BE WELL TIMED WITH PEAK DIURNAL
   HEATING. IF STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN THE WARM
   SECTOR...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND
   FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
   ACROSS THE SLIGHT RISK AREA. AS THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO BREAK DOWN
   OVERNIGHT...SEWD PROPAGATING STORM CLUSTER/MCS OVER NW ND AND SRN
   SASKATCHEWAN MAY MOVE ACROSS PORTIONS OF CNTRL/ERN ND/SD...POSING
   MAINLY A HAIL THREAT.

   ...SRN MN/IA...

   VARIOUS MODEL GUIDANCE IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN BRINGING A SHORTWAVE
   IMPULSE THROUGH THE UPPER RIDGE FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES ACROSS NEB
   AND INTO MN/IA OVERNIGHT. AS THIS IMPULSE APPROACHES THE REGION...A
   SWLY LLJ WILL INCREASE AND BECOME JUXTAPOSED WITH ENHANCED /40+ KT/
   WLY 500 MB FLOW. THUNDERSTORMS CLUSTERS MAY GROW UPSCALE INTO A
   S/SEWD PROPAGATING MCS OVERNIGHT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY AND STEEP
   LAPSE RATE ENVIRONMENT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED NATURE OF THE STORMS
   SHOULD LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL WITH THE GREATEST THREAT PROBABLY ONLY
   MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL AND HEAVY RAIN.

   ...SE VA INTO SE GA...

   A BAND OF ENHANCED MIDLEVEL FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE WARM
   SECTOR EAST OF THE APPALACHIANS AND AHEAD OF THE SFC COLD FRONT. MID
   60S+ SFC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90 WILL
   RESULT IN MODERATE INSTABILITY BY AFTERNOON. THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD
   DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND MAY TRY TO BECOME SEMI-ORGANIZED
   ALONG ANY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES AND SEA BREEZE INTERACTIONS. POOR
   MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES AND WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW SHOULD GENERALLY LIMIT
   ORGANIZATION/LONGEVITY OF ANY SEVERE THREAT...BUT A FEW
   STRONG/LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

   ..LEITMAN.. 07/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z