May 25, 2015 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon May 25 17:20:19 UTC 2015 (20150525 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20150525 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20150525 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 247,050 30,335,461 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
MARGINAL 597,138 71,777,213 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Graphic
20150525 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 248,696 30,485,525 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
5 % 594,203 71,515,713 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Detroit, MI...Indianapolis, IN...Austin, TX...
   SPC AC 251720

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1220 PM CDT MON MAY 25 2015

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL GULF
   COAST STATES...TN VALLEY AND OH VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF SRN
   PLAINS...CNTRL PLAINS...ARKLATEX...LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY...CNTRL
   GULF COAST STATES...TN VALLEY...OH VALLEY...SRN AND CNTRL
   APPALACHIANS AND LOWER GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL ARE EXPECTED TO OCCUR
   ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON TUESDAY. OTHER SEVERE
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM THE
   CENTRAL GULF COAST STATES INTO PARTS OF THE TENNESSEE AND OHIO
   VALLEYS ON TUESDAY. MARGINALLY SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND
   GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE FROM THE ARKLATEX AND LOWER MISSISSIPPI
   VALLEY NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND LOWER GREAT
   LAKES.

   ...SRN PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS ON
   TUESDAY. AT LOW-LEVELS...A MOIST AIRMASS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
   MUCH OF TX EXTENDING NWD INTO OK WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S
   AND LOWER 70S F. A DRYLINE SHOULD SHARPEN FROM WRN OK SSWWD ACROSS
   WEST TX WITH MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IN PLACE TO THE EAST OF
   THE DRYLINE BY AFTERNOON. DUE TO LIMITED CAPPING...SOME THUNDERSTORM
   ACTIVITY COULD DEVELOP DURING THE DAY ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND
   AHEAD OF THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. CONVECTIVE COVERAGE SHOULD MARKEDLY
   INCREASE DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WITH MODEL FORECASTS SUGGESTING
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL INITIATE FROM WCNTRL OK SSWWD ACROSS NCNTRL TX
   INTO PARTS OF THE WRN TX HILL COUNTRY WITH SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF
   THUNDERSTORMS ORGANIZING AND MOVING EWD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS DURING
   THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z/WED ALONG THE INSTABILITY AXIS FROM
   OKLAHOMA CITY SWWD TO WICHITA FALLS SHOW IMPRESSIVE THERMODYNAMICS
   WITH MLCAPE OF 4000 TO 5000 J/KG AND 850 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES
   APPROACHING 8.0 C/KM. THE WIND PROFILE SHOWS DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN
   THE LOW TO MID-LEVELS WITH STRONG SPEED SHEAR ABOVE 500 MB. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS AND
   POSSIBLY SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL IF CONVECTION CAN REMAIN
   DISCRETE. HOWEVER...A BOW STRUCTURED LINEAR MCS COULD ALSO DEVELOP
   WHICH WOULD FAVOR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AS THE MAIN THREAT. ALTHOUGH
   LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK ACROSS THE SRN
   PLAINS ON TUESDAY...A COUPLE TORNADOES COULD STILL OCCUR WITH
   SUPERCELLS OR WITH THE BETTER ORGANIZED LINE SEGMENTS.

   ...CNTRL GULF COAST STATES/TN AND OH VALLEYS...
   SOUTHWEST FLOW AT MID-LEVELS IS FORECAST ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE OH
   AND TN VALLEYS AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES NEWD ACROSS THE MID MS
   VALLEY. AN MCS COULD BE ONGOING AT THE START OF THE PERIOD ACROSS
   PARTS OF THE LOWER TO MID MS VALLEY. TO THE EAST OF THE MORNING
   CONVECTION...A MOIST AIRMASS SHOULD ENABLE MODERATE INSTABILITY TO
   DEVELOP BY AFTERNOON. MODEL CONSENSUS PLACES THE INSTABILITY AXIS
   FROM WRN AL NNEWD INTO ECNTRL TN AND CNTRL KY WHERE SCATTERED STRONG
   TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS APPEAR LIKELY TO INITIATE DURING THE EARLY
   TO MID AFTERNOON.

   FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z FROM BIRMINGHAM AL NNEWD ACROSS ECNTRL TN
   INTO CNTRL KY SHOW MLCAPE FROM 1500 TO 2500 J/KG WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL
   WIND PROFILES AND SUBSTANTIAL SPEED SHEAR IN THE MID-LEVELS. THIS
   ENVIRONMENT COULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL LINE SEGMENTS
   WITH WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL DURING THE AFTERNOON. ALTHOUGH DEEP-LAYER
   SHEAR APPEARS MARGINAL FOR SUPERCELLS...AN ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT
   CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH LINE SEGMENTS THAT CAN DEVELOP BOWING
   STRUCTURES.

   ..BROYLES.. 05/25/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z