Jul 27, 2016 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jul 27 17:30:41 UTC 2016 (20160727 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20160727 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20160727 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 32,528 207,276 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Sterling, CO...
SLIGHT 93,711 9,668,486 Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
MARGINAL 204,480 19,973,849 Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Greensboro, NC...
Probabilistic Graphic
20160727 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
30 % 32,406 206,798 Garden City, KS...Dodge City, KS...Sterling, CO...
15 % 93,132 9,491,985 Washington, DC...Virginia Beach, VA...Norfolk, VA...Chesapeake, VA...Richmond, VA...
5 % 205,372 20,043,584 Baltimore, MD...Denver, CO...Wichita, KS...Aurora, CO...Greensboro, NC...
   SPC AC 271730

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1230 PM CDT WED JUL 27 2016

   VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENH RISK OF SVR TSTMS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
   EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST COLORADO AND ADJACENT SOUTHWEST
   NEBRASKA THROUGH MUCH OF WESTERN KANSAS...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SURROUNDING AREAS OF THE
   CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS INTO THE FRONT RANGE OF THE ROCKIES...

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND
   EASTERN VIRGINIA THROUGH THE DELMARVA PENINSULA AND PARTS OF
   SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS SLIGHT RISK AREA...AS FAR NORTH AS THE NORTHERN HIGH
   PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS SURROUNDING THE SLIGHT RISK
   AREA ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...AS FAR SOUTH AND WEST AS
   THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS THURSDAY. 
   ADDITIONAL SEVERE STORMS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS PARTS OF THE MID
   ATLANTIC COAST REGION.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AXIS OF STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGING APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN
   PROMINENT AT RELATIVELY HIGHER LATITUDES /35-45N/ OF THE EASTERN
   PACIFIC THROUGH MUCH OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. DURING THIS PERIOD. 
   SOME NORTHWARD EXPANSION OF THIS RIDGING /TOWARD THE CANADIAN
   ROCKIES/ IS POSSIBLE...BUT THIS PROBABLY WILL BE SUPPRESSED TOWARD
   THE END OF THE PERIOD BY A SIGNIFICANT MID-LATITUDE WAVE MIGRATING
   INLAND ACROSS THE BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST.  DOWNSTREAM...FLOW WILL
   REMAIN SPLIT...WITH ONE BRANCH  CURVING IN BROADLY ANTICYCLONIC
   FASHION ACROSS THE CANADIAN PRAIRIES...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO A
   BROADLY CYCLONIC REGIME ACROSS EASTERN CANADA.  MODELS INDICATE THAT
   AN EMBEDDED ELONGATED CLOSED LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MIGRATE
   ACROSS QUEBEC TOWARD THE CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AN ASSOCIATED COLD
   FRONT MAY REACH THE ST. LAWRENCE VALLEY/SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES/MID
   MISSOURI VALLEY AND CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY. 
   SOME FURTHER SOUTHEASTWARD/SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION IS POSSIBLE THROUGH
   EARLY FRIDAY...THOUGH THE BOUNDARY MAY BECOME INCREASINGLY
   ILL-DEFINED...OBSCURED BY CONSIDERABLE PRE-FRONTAL CONVECTIVE CLOUD
   COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

   ONE AREA OF CONVECTION MAY BE ONGOING EARLY THURSDAY ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS INTO THE MISSISSIPPI DELTA
   REGION AND OZARK PLATEAU.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO BE ASSOCIATED WITH
   LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ATTENDANT TO A MID/UPPER WAVE WHICH HAS MIGRATED
   INLAND OF THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY.  THIS
   FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME INCREASINGLY SHEARED WHILE MIGRATING
   AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A REMNANT SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER /NOW EAST
   OF THE SOUTHERN ATLANTIC COAST/...ACROSS THE TENNESSEE
   VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND MID ATLANTIC COAST BY EARLY FRIDAY.

   UPSTREAM...A SERIES OF PERTURBATIONS ARE IN THE PROCESS OF MIGRATING
   INLAND OF THE NORTHERN U.S. PACIFIC COAST.  THESE FEATURES ARE
   EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ANOTHER
   SUBTROPICAL HIGH CENTER...WHICH APPEARS LIKELY TO REMAIN STRONG
   ACROSS THE SOUTHERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD.  ASSOCIATED
   FORCING FOR ASCENT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO ONE OR MORE CLUSTERS OF STORMS
   WITHIN NORTHWESTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

   ...CNTRL/SRN APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID ATLANTIC COAST REGION...
   THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY...THE BELT OF MODEST LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC
   FLOW... ASSOCIATED WITH THE IMPULSE PROGRESSING NORTHEAST OF THE
   LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY ...MAY REMAIN TO THE WEST OF THE
   APPALACHIANS...WHERE EARLY DAY CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION MAY
   INHIBIT DESTABILIZATION.  WITHIN SURFACE TROUGHING TO THE EAST OF
   THE APPALACHIANS...DAYTIME HEATING OF A BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED
   BY SEASONABLY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT IS EXPECTED TO SUPPORT LARGE
   CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG.  AS THIS OCCURS IN THE PRESENCE OF AT
   LEAST MODEST /ON THE ORDER OF 30 KT AT 500 MB/ MID-LEVEL
   WESTERLIES...THE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME TO CONDUCIVE TO
   ORGANIZED VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.  THIS MAY BE SUPPORTED BY
   AT LEAST ONE AREA OF ENHANCED MID-LEVEL FORCING FOR ASCENT EXPECTED
   TO SPREAD EAST OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON
   OR EVENING.  DISCRETE STORM DEVELOPMENT WITH THE RISK FOR A TORNADO
   MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION...BUT AN EVOLVING CLUSTER OR CLUSTERS
   OF STORMS APPEARS MORE PROBABLE...WITH POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND
   GUSTS THE MOST PROMINENT SEVERE THREAT.

   ...CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   NEAR THE EDGE OF A REMNANT PLUME OF VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER
   AIR...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE /MID 60S+ SURFACE DEW POINTS/ AND
   INSOLATION ARE EXPECTED TO SUPPORT STRONG DESTABILIZATION ACROSS
   PARTS OF WESTERN KANSAS INTO NORTHEAST COLORADO BY LATE THURSDAY
   AFTERNOON.  AIDED BY EASTERLY LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW AND FORCING FOR
   ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH LOWER/MID TROPOSPHERIC WARM ADVECTION...THE
   ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE THAN CONDUCIVE TO SEVERE
   STORM DEVELOPMENT BENEATH STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST MID-LEVEL FLOW
   /30-40+ KT AT 500 MB/ BY LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  A FEW SUPERCELLS
   ARE POSSIBLE INITIALLY...BEFORE ACTIVITY GROWS UPSCALE INTO A
   SOUTHEASTWARD PROPAGATING MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM ACCOMPANIED BY
   A SWATH OR TWO OF STRONG DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

   ..KERR.. 07/27/2016

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z