Sep 16, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Sep 16 17:29:45 UTC 2014 (20140916 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140916 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140916 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20140916 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 90,227 5,551,416 Kansas City, MO...Overland Park, KS...Springfield, MO...Kansas City, KS...Topeka, KS...
   SPC AC 161729

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1229 PM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

   VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER PARTS OF THE CENTRAL
   GREAT PLAINS AND OZARK PLATEAU ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   LARGE-SCALE UPPER-LEVEL PATTERN WILL SHIFT SLOWLY EWD DURING THE
   PERIOD WITH A TROUGH APPROACHING THE WEST COAST...A RIDGE ACROSS THE
   NRN ROCKIES AND A TROUGH OVER THE EAST. DECAYING REMNANTS OF TC
   ODILE SHOULD PROGRESS INTO SRN AZ. AT THE SURFACE...A WARM FRONT
   SHOULD STALL OVER THE CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS TO OZARK PLATEAU.

   ...OZARK PLATEAU AND CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS...
   A CLUSTER OF ELEVATED STORMS WILL BE ONGOING AT 12Z/WED NEAR THE
   KS/MO BORDER IN ASSOCIATION WITH A MODERATE LOW-LEVEL WAA REGIME AND
   A WEAK MID-LEVEL IMPULSE OVER THE MID-MS VALLEY. WITH RICHER
   MOISTURE RETURNING FROM OK/TX BENEATH A PLUME OF STEEP MID-LEVEL
   LAPSE RATES AMIDST NWLY FLOW...CLOUD-BEARING SPEED SHEAR SHOULD BE
   SUFFICIENT FOR A RISK OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL DURING THE MORNING.
   AS THE LLJ WEAKENS AND THE IMPULSE PROGRESSES TO THE TN
   VALLEY...MORNING CONVECTION SHOULD SUBSIDE. 

   AIR MASS ALONG THE QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT SHOULD STRONGLY
   DESTABILIZE IN THE WAKE OF THE MORNING ACTIVITY AS DIURNAL HEATING
   OCCURS AMIDST MIDDLE TO UPPER 60S SURFACE DEW POINTS. PERSISTENT
   MID-LEVEL NWLYS WILL MAINTAIN A STOUT EML WITH QUITE STEEP LAPSE
   RATES. HOWEVER...LOW CONFIDENCE EXISTS IN WHETHER DIURNAL STORM
   DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE FRONT WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR SLIGHT RISK
   EQUIVALENT PROBABILITIES. LOWER-LEVEL WINDS WILL BE WEAK SUGGESTING
   CONVERGENCE MAY BE LIMITED AND BACKGROUND LARGE-SCALE ASCENT APPEARS
   NEUTRAL. BUT IF A COUPLE OF SURFACE-BASED STORMS WERE TO BE
   SUSTAINED...30-40 KT EFFECTIVE SHEAR WOULD SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH A
   PRIMARY RISK OF LARGE HAIL.

   ...SRN AZ...
   TC ODILE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD...BUT A RELATIVE
   INCREASE IN LOW-LEVEL E/SLYS SHOULD OCCUR OVER A SPATIALLY CONFINED
   AREA OF S-CNTRL/SERN AZ. ALTHOUGH HODOGRAPHS COULD BECOME FAVORABLE
   FOR LOW-LEVEL UPDRAFT ROTATION...POOR LAPSE RATES AND NEGLIGIBLE TO
   MEAGER BUOYANCY SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN TOO SHALLOW/WEAK TO
   WARRANT SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITIES THIS OUTLOOK.

   ..GRAMS.. 09/16/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z