Apr 23, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 17:28:48 UTC 2014 (20140423 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20140423 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20140423 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Probabilistic Graphic
20140423 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 62,937 4,419,552 Memphis, TN...Shreveport, LA...Little Rock, AR...Jonesboro, AR...Monroe, LA...
   SPC AC 231726

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1226 PM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS SOUTHEAST MO...MUCH OF
   AR AND INTO WRN TN...AND INTO NWRN MS AND NRN LA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG A
   CORRIDOR FROM NORTHERN LOUISIANA INTO SOUTHEAST MISSOURI...AND THEN
   SPREAD EAST TOWARD WESTERN TENNESSEE AND NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI INTO
   THE EVENING THURSDAY.  LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL WILL BE THE
   PRIMARY THREATS WITH THIS ACTIVITY.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A STRONG MID- AND UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH -- COMPRISED OF PHASED PIECES
   OF NRN- AND SRN-STREAM ENERGY -- WILL CROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. THIS
   PERIOD.  THE SRN FEATURE WITHIN THIS TROUGH IN PARTICULAR WILL BE A
   FOCUS WITH RESPECT TO THE CONVECTIVE/SEVERE FORECAST FOR THE DAY 2
   PERIOD...AS IT SHIFTS OUT OF THE PLAINS AND CROSSES THE LOWER MO/MID
   MS VALLEY REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.

   AT THE SURFACE...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EWD ACROSS THE
   IA/MO REGION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...AND THEN THE MIDWEST STATES
   DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.  AS THIS OCCURS...A TRAILING COLD
   FRONT WILL MOVE EWD ACROSS THE LOWER MO/MID MS VALLEYS AND SEWD
   ACROSS AR/TX/LA THROUGH SUNSET.  THIS BOUNDARY WILL FOCUS A ZONE OF
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS -- WITH INTENSITY/SEVERE RISK PEAKING
   DIURNALLY ACROSS AR AND VICINITY.

   ...SERN MO/WRN TN SWWD INTO NRN LA...
   A MOISTENING AIRMASS IS PROGGED AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING COLD
   FRONT...AS SLY BOUNDARY-LAYER WINDS ADVECT LOW 60S DEWPOINTS ACROSS
   AR AND INTO SERN MO.  HOWEVER...DIURNAL HEATING IS FORECAST TO BE
   HINDERED BY ONGOING PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED CLOUD COVER...WHICH
   SHOULD BE SPREADING EWD TOWARD/INTO THE SLIGHT RISK AREA EARLY IN
   THE PERIOD.  AS A RESULT...ONLY MARGINAL DESTABILIZATION IS FORECAST
   -- PARTICULARLY INTO CENTRAL AND NRN AR AND ADJACENT SERN MO WHERE
   STRONGEST FLOW ALOFT /ON THE SRN FRINGE OF THE UPPER VORT MAX/ IS
   PROGGED TO EXIST.

   THAT BEING SAID...THE STRENGTH OF THE SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
   STRONG/COMPACT JET STREAK IS SUGGESTIVE OF SEVERE RISK DESPITE THE
   ANTICIPATED MARGINAL THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT.  THOUGH SHEAR WOULD
   SUPPORT ROTATING STORMS...IT APPEARS THAT A LINEAR MODE WILL BE
   FAVORED AND THUS DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE THE PRIMARY SEVERE RISK. 
   A TORNADO OR TWO...HOWEVER...CANNOT BE RULED OUT -- EITHER WITHIN
   THE BROADER CONVECTIVE LINE OR WITH ANY ISOLATED STORM AHEAD OF THE
   LINE.  SEVERE-SIZED HAIL WOULD APPEAR TO BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
   SRN HALF OF THE OUTLOOK...WHERE SOMEWHAT GREATER DESTABILIZATION
   POTENTIAL IS EVIDENT.

   GIVEN THE MARGINAL THERMODYNAMICS ANTICIPATED...STORMS SHOULD SHOW A
   FAIRLY STRONG DIURNAL PEAK IN INTENSITY...WITH WEAKENING CONVECTION
   AND THUS DIMINISHING SEVERE RISK LIKELY BY EVENING AS THE FRONT
   MOVES E OF THE MS VALLEY.

   ..GOSS.. 04/23/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z