Oct 29, 2014 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Oct 29 16:37:09 UTC 2014 (20141029 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20141029 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20141029 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20141029 1730 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 291637

   DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1137 AM CDT WED OCT 29 2014

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE MAINLY DURING THE
   AFTERNOON/EVENING ON THURSDAY OVER PARTS OF TEXAS...THE
   MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...AND FLORIDA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   UPPER AIR PATTERN WILL UNDERGO SIGNIFICANT AMPLIFICATION THIS PERIOD
   AS A SHARP RIDGE ALIGNS ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND SEPARATES
   TWO DEEP TROUGHS...ONE ALONG THE WEST COAST AND THE OTHER
   ENCOMPASSING MUCH OF THE MIDWEST AND EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES TO
   THE GULF OF MEXICO AND SOUTHEAST. THE EASTERN TROUGH WILL EVOLVE AS
   A LOW AMPLITUDE SHORTWAVE TROUGH MIGRATES EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE
   PLAINS FROM ITS CURRENT LOCATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
   HOWEVER...IT IS A MUCH STRONGER IMPULSE MOVING OUT OF NORTHERN
   CANADA THAT WILL PROVIDE MOST OF THE IMPETUS FOR LARGE-SCALE TROUGH
   AMPLIFICATION ACROSS THE MIDWEST AND EAST THROUGH EARLY FRIDAY.
   STRONG HEIGHT FALLS WILL ALSO OCCUR ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AS THE
   HIGH-AMPLITUDE PACIFIC TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVE INTO
   COASTAL AREAS OF WA/ORE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

   ...MIDDLE MS VALLEY...
   WEAK DESTABILIZATION SHOULD DEVELOP COINCIDENT WITH THE ARRIVAL OF
   THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH CROSSING THE MID/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY
   THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. LIFT WITH THIS DISTURBANCE WILL ENHANCE
   MARGINAL WARM/MOIST CONVEYOR BELT TO AID ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   CONVECTION/THUNDERSTORMS IN A NORTHWEST-SOUTHEAST CORRIDOR CENTERED
   ON CENTRAL/EASTERN MO.

   ...TEXAS...
   STRONGER DAYTIME DESTABILIZATION IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE RESIDUAL
   FRONT EXPECTED TO BE ACROSS PARTS OF WEST TX. LIFT ALONG NEW FRONTAL
   SURGE ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE PLAINS SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO
   THE NORTH MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL FORCING FOR ASCENT AROUND THE TIME
   OF MAX HEATING. LACK OF STRONGER FORCING AND FLOW SHOULD PRECLUDE
   MORE WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS BUT ANTECEDENT INSTABILITY MAY ALLOW
   CONVECTION TO PERSIST INTO THE EVENING AS SECONDARY FRONTAL SURGE
   SPREADS SOUTH INTO THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY.

   ...FL...
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS MAY ACT TO SUSTAIN LIFT ALONG THE SLOW-MOVING COLD
   FRONT ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL/CENTRAL FL AS DAYTIME HEATING AIDS
   DESTABILIZATION. MODEST 30KT WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT COULD AID IN
   UPDRAFT PERSISTENCE WITH A COUPLE OF STRONGER CELLS POSSIBLE.
   HOWEVER...OVERALL FORCING AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY APPEAR TOO
   LIMITED TO RESULT IN GREATER SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL.

   ..CARBIN.. 10/29/2014

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z