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Oct 17, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Oct 17 04:51:41 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20171017 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20171017 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 170451

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1151 PM CDT Mon Oct 16 2017

   Valid 191200Z - 201200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Low thunderstorm probabilities will exist along the Pacific
   Northwest Coast, across the southern Rockies, and over parts of
   Florida.

   ...Discussion...

   Much of the contiguous US will remain convection-free during the
   day3 period but a few ares may experience isolated thunderstorms.

   1) Pacific NW - Strong short-wave trough will move inland along the
   Pacific NW Coast during the latter half of the period. While weak
   mid-level buoyancy may contribute to shallow elevated convection
   within the warm conveyor, cooling profiles and surface-based
   instability may prove adequate for isolated post-frontal
   thunderstorms near the coast after 18z. 

   2) Southern Rockies - Gradual moistening is expected across the
   southern Rockies during the day2-3 time frame as higher PW air mass
   advances north into NM. Boundary-layer heating should contribute to
   destabilization during the afternoon hours and a weak mid-level
   short-wave trough is expected to aid at least isolated thunderstorm
   development.

   3) Florida - Easterly low-level flow (around 2k deep) will continue
   across the FL Peninsula into the day3 period as strong surface high
   will hold across the eastern US. Weak buoyancy, due to poor lapse
   rates, should allow convection to focus near the eastern/southern
   peninsula. While much of this activity will remain lightning-free, a
   few of the stronger updrafts may penetrate levels necessary for
   lightning discharge.

   ..Darrow.. 10/17/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 17, 2017
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