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Jun 30, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Jun 30 07:28:43 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160630 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160630 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300728

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0228 AM CDT THU JUN 30 2016

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND
   CNTRL PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS
   AND FAR SE VA...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ERN MT AND FAR
   NW ND...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE LATE
   SATURDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF THE
   SOUTHERN PLAINS...CENTRAL PLAINS AND NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS. A FEW
   MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE IN THE CAROLINAS
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ON SATURDAY.

   ...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
   A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES ON
   SATURDAY AS A SLOW MOVING FRONT REMAINS IN PLACE FROM THE TX
   PANHANDLE EXTENDING ENEWD ACROSS NW OK INTO SE KS. A MOIST AIRMASS
   IS FORECAST ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN
   THE 60S F FROM THE TX PANHANDLE INTO NRN OK AND SE KS. THIS SHOULD
   RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY ALONG THIS
   CORRIDOR WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT TAKING PLACE IN THE
   MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 21Z/SAT FROM
   AMARILLO TX ENEWD TO NEAR WICHITA KS SHOW MODERATE INSTABILITY...0-6
   KM SHEAR IN THE 25 TO 35 KT RANGE WITH STEEP LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   SUGGESTING MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS AND HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE.

   ...CAROLINAS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH IS FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE ERN SEABOARD ON
   SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT ADVANCES SSEWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC
   REGION AND INTO THE CAROLINAS. SOUTH OF THE FRONT...A MOIST AIRMASS
   SHOULD BE IN PLACE WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S F
   WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MODERATE INSTABILITY BY
   AFTERNOON. AS LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INCREASES ALONG THE
   FRONT...CONVECTIVE INITIATION IS FORECAST TO TAKE PLACE IN THE LATE
   AFTERNOON AS LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES BECOME STEEP. THIS COMBINED WITH
   VEERED LOW-LEVEL WINDS AND 25 TO 30 KT OF DEEP-LAYER SHEAR MAY BE
   ENOUGH FOR A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS WITH THE STRONGER
   MULTICELLS.

   ...NRN HIGH PLAINS...
   AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO MOVE EWD INTO THE NRN PLAINS ON
   SATURDAY AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES. AT THE
   SFC...A COLD FRONT IS FORECAST TO ADVANCE EWD ACROSS CNTRL MT WITH A
   DEEPENING SFC LOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT IN ERN MT. THUNDERSTORMS MAY
   DEVELOP LATE SATURDAY AFTERNOON NEAR AND TO THE NORTH OF THE SFC LOW
   ACROSS NERN MT WHERE MODERATE DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST AND
   INSTABILITY SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND
   STRONG WIND GUSTS. HOWEVER...UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THIS SCENARIO IS
   SUBSTANTIAL DUE TO MODEL DIFFERENCES. THE MAIN QUESTION IS HOW MUCH
   INSTABILITY CAN DEVELOP. FOR THIS REASON...WILL KEEP THE THREAT
   LEVEL AT A MARGINAL RISK IN NE MT AND FAR NW ND FOR LATE AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING.

   ..BROYLES.. 06/30/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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