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May 25, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu May 25 07:43:38 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170525 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170525 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250743

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0243 AM CDT Thu May 25 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER PORTIONS
   OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS INTO THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM PORTIONS OF
   THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL PLAINS EAST TO THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SURROUNDING THE
   ENHANCED AND SLIGHT RISKS FROM THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS TO THE
   MID-ATLANTIC COAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Widespread severe thunderstorms are expected Saturday and Saturday
   night from portions of the central and southern Plains east to the
   mid-Atlantic coast.

   A widespread and potentially significant severe weather event
   appears likely Saturday and Saturday night from the central and
   southern Plains east to the mid-Atlantic region.

   ...Synopsis...
   A positive-tilt upper-level trough will extend from a closed low
   over Manitoba across the northern Plains and into the Great Basin,
   with moderately strong zonal flow and an expansive EML from the
   central Rockies east to the mid-Atlantic coast. By late Saturday
   afternoon, a surface frontal boundary will extend from the southern
   High Plains east across Oklahoma to a surface low over the western
   Ohio Valley, with a warm front extending east to the mid-Atlantic
   coast. A dryline will extend from central Oklahoma into southwest
   Texas. Rich Gulf moisture will be in place along and south of the
   front and east of the dryline, contributing to strong to extreme
   instability.

   ...Central/southern Plains east to the middle Mississippi Valley...
   An MCS with some severe potential may be ongoing at 12z Saturday in
   the Kansas/Nebraska border region, and diurnal intensification of
   this complex is possible with a severe threat extending east across
   the lower Missouri Valley. 

   Additional potentially explosive thunderstorm development is
   anticipated in the vicinity of the southward sagging cold front from
   central/eastern Oklahoma northeast into the western Ohio Valley
   Saturday afternoon, and along the dryline from central Oklahoma
   southwest into north Texas. More isolated development is possible
   farther southwest towards the Edwards Plateau region. GFS and ECMWF
   forecast soundings reveal an environment characterized by strong to
   extreme surface-based instability and 40-50 kts of deep-layer shear,
   and storms should rapidly become severe with all severe hazards
   possible, including significant severe hail and wind. Tornado
   potential will exist, and likely be influenced by boundary/storm
   interactions. Upscale growth into multiple clusters appears probable
   late Saturday and Saturday night as a 40-kt southwesterly low-level
   jet develops with a continued severe risk.  

   ...Ohio/Tennessee Valley Region east to the mid-Atlantic...
   Moderate/pockets of strong instability will exist Saturday
   afternoon, and scattered severe thunderstorms are expected to
   develop with diurnal heating, potentially aided by ascent with
   convectively enhanced low-amplitude impulses within the westerly
   mid-level flow. Effective shear ranging from 35-45 kts and steep
   mid-level lapse rates will promote a risk for large hail, damaging
   winds, and an isolated tornado.  Storms may merge into clusters with
   time with a continued severe risk Saturday evening.

   ..Bunting.. 05/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 25, 2017
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