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Jan 30, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Jan 30 08:24:43 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150130 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150130 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300824

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST FRI JAN 30 2015

   VALID 011200Z - 021200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY OCCUR FROM A
   PORTION OF SOUTHERN TEXAS THROUGH SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE GULF
   COAST STATES.

   ...SYNOPSIS...

   A SPLIT FLOW REGIME WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH A NRN STREAM TROUGH
   EXPECTED TO AMPLIFY THROUGH THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE MID MS AND TN
   VALLEYS. CONCURRENTLY...A SRN STREAM POSITIVE TILT TROUGH WILL MOVE
   SLOWLY SEWD THROUGH THE BAJA AREA AND NORTHERN MEXICO. THE NRN
   STREAM UPPER TROUGH WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
   ADVANCE SEWD THROUGH TX AND THE SERN STATES. BY THE END OF THE
   PERIOD THIS FRONT SHOULD EXTEND FROM A SFC LOW OVER THE MID-ATLANTIC
   AREA SWWD THROUGH THE NRN GULF.

   ...CNTRL AND SRN TX THROUGH SRN PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES...


   A BROAD FETCH OF SWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST FROM SRN TX THROUGH THE
   SERN STATES AND UPPER WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH. MODIFIED CP AIR WITH UPPER 50S TO 60 F
   LOW-LEVEL DEWPOINTS SHOULD ADVECT INLAND THROUGH SERN TX INTO SRN
   PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES. INSTABILITY WILL REMAIN WEAK
   OWING TO THE MODEST MOISTURE RETURN...POOR 700-500 MB LAPSE RATES
   AND AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS. A PLUME OF SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE AND
   A SERIES OF IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THIS BELT OF SWLY WINDS ALOFT
   WILL PROMOTE THE DEVELOPMENT OF NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND A FEW
   THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE SEWD ADVANCING COLD FRONT.
   WHILE WINDS ALOFT AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN /PARTICULARLY
   FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY INTO THE SERN U.S./ IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE
   AMPLIFYING NRN STREAM TROUGH...THE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT IS
   EXPECTED TO REMAIN TOO MARGINAL FOR A SEVERE STORM THREAT.

   ..DIAL.. 01/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: January 30, 2015
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