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Aug 31, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Aug 31 06:20:09 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140831 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140831 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 310620

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CDT SUN AUG 31 2014

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG A WEAK COLD FRONT FROM
   NEW YORK...SOUTHWEST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 
   GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL ARE EXPECTED.

   ...NY TO OZARK PLATEAU...

   UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE MS VALLEY INTO THE
   LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION BY 03/00Z AS PRIMARY MID-LEVEL SPEED MAX
   TRANSLATES TOWARD SRN QUEBEC.  THIS EVOLUTION WILL ALLOW A WEAK SFC
   FRONT TO MIGRATE INTO THE OH VALLEY BY MID-DAY WHICH WILL LIKELY
   SERVE AS THE FOCUS FOR POTENTIAL ROBUST THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT. 
   LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SUGGEST AN ACTIVE FRONTAL
   ZONE...CONVECTIVE-WISE...THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SCT TSTMS LIKELY
   ONGOING AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD.  CONVECTIVE DEBRIS ALONG THE
   FRONT AND SCT STORMS SHOULD LIMIT SFC HEATING/LAPSE RATES...THOUGH
   DIABATIC HEATING IS STILL EXPECTED TO CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION
   THAT SHOULD RESULT IN ROBUST CONVECTION.  ANY STORMS THAT EVOLVE
   ALONG THE WIND SHIFT...AND EARLY-DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOWS...SHOULD DO
   SO WITHIN A MODESTLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT SEEMS SUPPORTIVE OF
   ORGANIZED MULTI-CELL UPDRAFTS AND LINE SEGMENTS.  WILL INTRODUCE 5
   PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR GUSTY WINDS AND MARGINALLY
   SEVERE HAIL AS IT/S NOT REAL CLEAR HOW MUCH BUOYANCY WILL EXIST
   ACROSS THE OH VALLEY GIVEN THE EARLY-DAY CONVECTION.

   ..DARROW.. 08/31/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 31, 2014
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