SPC AC 210729
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0229 AM CDT TUE MAY 21 2013
   
   VALID 231200Z - 241200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   AN ERN NOAM UPPER TROUGH IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE EWD THIS
   PERIOD...WHILE UPSTREAM RIDGING SPREADS EWD INTO THE CENTRAL U.S.
   AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER SYSTEM.  THIS SYSTEM -- A LARGE/VERY UPPER
   LOW OVER THE PAC NW...WILL MAKE VERY LITTLE PROGRESS THROUGH THE
   PERIOD.
   
   AT THE SURFACE...A COLD FRONT CROSSING MT/WY/THE GREAT BASIN WILL --
   LIKE ITS PARENT UPPER SYSTEM -- MAKE ONLY SLOW EWD PROGRESS. 
   MEANWHILE...A SECOND FRONT WILL CONTINUE ADVANCING ACROSS THE NERN
   U.S. TOWARD THE ATLANTIC COAST.
   
   ...TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY...
   SUBSIDENCE/CAPPING IS FORECAST ACROSS THE SRN HIGH PLAINS REGION
   UNDER THE EVOLVING UPPER RIDGE.  HOWEVER...STRONG INSTABILITY ABOVE
   THE CAP AND STRONGLY VEERING FLOW WITH HEIGHT OTHERWISE INDICATE
   SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WEATHER.  
   
   MODELS -- TO VARYING DEGREES -- DO FORECAST AT LEAST ISOLATED STORM
   INITIATION INVOF THE TX/OK PANHANDLE VICINITY.  ANY STORM WHICH
   COULD DEVELOP WOULD LIKELY ORGANIZE RAPIDLY AND BECOME
   SEVERE/SUPERCELLULAR.  THUS -- WILL INTRODUCE CONDITIONAL SLIGHT
   RISK ACROSS THIS REGION...WITH REFINEMENTS LIKELY TO BE NEEDED IN
   LATER FORECASTS AS CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL BECOMES MORE CLEAR.
   
   ...NEW ENGLAND SWD ACROSS THE MID-ATLANTIC REGION...
   AMPLE FLOW ALOFT BUT WEAK INSTABILITY SHOULD CHARACTERIZE THE
   PRE-FRONTAL WARM SECTOR ACROSS THE NORTHEAST AND MID-ATLANTIC REGION
   THURSDAY.  THUS -- OVERALL SEVERE POTENTIAL APPEARS RELATIVELY LOW
   ATTM.  WILL INTRODUCE LOW SEVERE WEATHER PROBABILITY ACROSS THIS
   AREA FOR ISOLATED HAIL/WIND THREAT WHERE A FEW STRONGER AFTERNOON
   STORMS CAN FORM...BUT WILL WAIT UNTIL LATER OUTLOOKS TO ISSUE A MORE
   SPECIFIC/POSSIBLY HIGHER-PROBABILITY FORECAST.
   
   ..GOSS.. 05/21/2013
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z