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Apr 30, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Apr 30 07:23:45 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170430 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170430 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Sun Apr 30 2017

   Valid 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms will be possible from the western/central Gulf Coast
   to the northern High Plains. While a few stronger storms may be
   possible across the Texas Gulf Coast and southern Plains Tuesday
   night, organized severe weather is not currently expected.

   ...Synopsis...
   Broad cyclonic flow aloft will remain established across the Rockies
   and points east through the period. Within this regime, one trough
   will lift northeast from the Great Lakes towards the Canadian
   Maritimes. Meanwhile, an upstream positively tilted trough will drop
   southeast from the Rockies towards the southern/central Plains.

   Ahead of this trough, the low-level mass response will feature
   gradual moisture return northward across the Texas Gulf Coast and
   adjacent portions of the southern Plains. Additionally, modest warm
   advection late Tuesday into Tuesday night may yield elevated
   convection across parts of Oklahoma and the Ozarks. While the 00Z
   GFS is more aggressive with northward moisture return and suggests
   the potential for a more substantive severe threat, it appears to be
   an outlier relative to other guidance. In turn, convection is
   currently expected to be relegated to areas of only weak/modest
   elevated buoyancy Tuesday night. Thus, while some small hail appears
   possible, a Marginal Risk is not introduced at this time.

   Farther south, convection may develop late Tuesday night across
   parts of the Texas Gulf Coast, likely in response to a subtle
   impulse within the sub-tropical jet. While a few stronger cells may
   be possible, guidance currently suggests most storms may remain
   offshore. Combined with the unfavorable timing and subtle/uncertain
   nature of this impulse, the potential for organized severe weather
   appears too low for a Marginal Risk at this time.

   ..Picca.. 04/30/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 30, 2017
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