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Nov 22, 2009 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun Nov 22 07:22:46 UTC 2009  (Print Version)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table (Effective Feb 14, 2006).
  |  
SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook SPC Day 3 0830Z Categorical Outlook Legend
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 220720
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0120 AM CST SUN NOV 22 2009
   
   VALID 241200Z - 251200Z
   
   ...SYNOPSIS/FCST...
   UPR LOW OVER THE LWR MO VLY EARLY TUESDAY WILL EJECT ENE ACROSS THE
   MIDWEST DURING THE DAY AS THE NEXT NRN STREAM SYSTEM DIGS INTO THE
   NRN PLNS.  SFC LOW ATTENDANT WITH THE FORMER SYSTEM WILL MOVE FROM
   THE CORN BELT INTO LWR MI BY 12Z WED AS THE CDFNT MOVES THROUGH THE
   MIDWEST...THE OH/TN VLYS AND WRN GULF OF MEXICO.  TO THE S...AN OLD
   FRONT WILL REMAIN SITUATED FROM SRN FL WWD INTO THE CNTRL GULF OF
   MEXICO WHERE A FRONTAL WAVE IS APT TO FORM IN RESPONSE TO SRN STREAM
   ENERGY EJECTING NEWD FROM CNTRL MEXICO
   
   SPORADIC TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STRONG PV-ANOMALY AS IT TRACKS INTO
   THE MIDWEST TUESDAY MORNING/AFTN.  MOISTURE WILL REMAIN QUITE
   LIMITED...ESPECIALLY AS THE OVERALL FLOW TURNS NLY ACROSS THE NRN
   GULF BASIN IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL WAVE OVER THE WRN GULF WATERS.
    THUS...SVR WEATHER IS NOT ANTICIPATED DESPITE FAVORABLE KINEMATICS.
   
   
   OTHERWISE...CONVECTION/ISOLD TSTMS MAY ACCOMPANY THE FRONTAL PASSAGE
   ACROSS DEEP S TX DURING THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY.  PRIMARY FORCING
   FOR ASCENT AND DEEP LAYER FLOW PASSING TO THE N OF THE REGION AND
   PRESENCE OF A RESIDUAL WARM LAYER NEAR H85 SHOULD REDUCE THE THREAT
   FOR SVR TSTMS.
   
   ..RACY.. 11/22/2009
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: November 22, 2009
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