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Jun 30, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 30 07:27:54 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150630 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150630 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 300727

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0227 AM CDT TUE JUN 30 2015

   VALID 021200Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE
   SRN APPALACHIANS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ACROSS MUCH OF THE
   SOUTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTRY THURSDAY.  ISOLATED SEVERE STORMS ARE
   MOST LIKELY FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS TO THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS.

   ...MID SOUTH TO SRN APPALACHIANS...

   LARGE-SCALE PATTERN WILL NOT CHANGE APPRECIABLY INTO THE DAY3 PERIOD
   WITH UPPER RIDGING EXPECTED TO REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE WRN U.S. AND
   TROUGHING IN THE EAST.  LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE SUGGEST A CLUSTER OF
   STORMS WILL PROPAGATE INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU BY SUNRISE FRIDAY
   MORNING AIDED BY A SEWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH.  VEERED LLJ AHEAD
   OF THIS FEATURE MAY ENHANCE THE LIKELIHOOD FOR ESEWD
   PROPAGATION/DEVELOPMENT TOWARD THE SRN APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY. 
   DIURNAL HEATING MAY AID POTENTIAL UPWARD EVOLUTION OF CONVECTION
   WHICH COULD PRODUCE DAMAGING WINDS GIVEN THE SEASONALLY MODEST
   MID-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THIS REGION.

   ...CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS...

   HIGH PLAINS FRONTAL SURGE IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND ACROSS CNTRL
   NEBRASKA...SWWD INTO NERN CO BY 18Z.  THIS WIND SHIFT WILL PROGRESS
   INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS BY EARLY EVENING AS ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT
   SHORT-WAVE TROUGH DIGS INTO WRN NEBRASKA/KS BY 03/00Z.  ISOLATED
   SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY EVOLVE WITHIN FAVORABLY SHEARED
   ENVIRONMENT AS CAP WEAKENS.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST DISCRETE
   SUPERCELLS ARE POSSIBLE WITH SFC-6KM SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35KT. 
   THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD PROPAGATE SWD TOWARD THE TX PANHANDLE/NWRN OK
   WHERE CLUSTERING IS POSSIBLE AFTER DARK.  STRENGTH OF DIGGING SHORT
   WAVE AND EXPECTED ENVIRONMENTAL SHEAR/INSTABILITY SUGGEST HIGHER
   SEVERE PROBS MAY BE WARRANTED ACROSS THIS REGION.  LARGE HAIL AND
   DAMAGING WINDS ARE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ..DARROW.. 06/30/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: June 30, 2015
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