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Mar 23, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Mar 23 07:28:26 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170323 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170323 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230728

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CDT Thu Mar 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE LOWER TO MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   An isolated severe thunderstorm threat may develop across parts of
   the lower to mid Mississippi Valley into the Southeast on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   An upper low over eastern KS/western MO will move east-northeastward
   across the mid MS Valley Saturday, likely reaching the IL/IN
   vicinity by the end of the period. A surface low initially over MO
   should develop only slowly northeastward towards IL while undergoing
   further weakening. A narrow warm sector, becoming increasingly
   confined with northward extent, will exist across parts of the lower
   to mid MS Valley and Southeast ahead of an eastward-moving surface
   cold front. A high-pressure area over the western Atlantic will act
   to limit greater low-level moisture return from the Gulf across GA
   and much of FL.

   ...Lower/Mid MS Valley and Southeast...
   A line of thunderstorms will probably be ongoing across the lower MS
   Valley Saturday morning along/ahead of a cold front. The evolution
   of this line with eastward extent into AL/TN remains uncertain, but
   40-55 kt southwesterly mid-level winds associated with the upper low
   should overspread the warm sector through Saturday afternoon. In
   concert with some diurnal destabilization, these strengthening winds
   aloft may allow for the line of convection to continue/intensify as
   it moves eastward across parts of the Southeast. Strong to damaging
   winds would probably remain the primary risk given the expected
   linear mode. Additional convection may form behind the initial line
   along the front, although this remains highly uncertain/conditional.
   If this activity did form, it would also pose a damaging-wind
   threat.

   Across western TN into the mid MS Valley, instability will likely
   remain limited owing to marginal low-level moisture, but strong
   forcing for ascent, cold mid-level temperatures, and strengthening
   mid-level winds may allow for some thunderstorm organization ahead
   of the upper low across this region. With time, any thunderstorms
   that do form/persist will encounter a less-favorable thermodynamic
   environment as they move eastward across the mid MS Valley and
   Southeast, suggesting a lessening of the overall severe threat with
   eastward extent into Saturday evening/night.

   ..Gleason.. 03/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: March 23, 2017
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