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Apr 23, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 23 06:35:48 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140423 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140423 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230634

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0134 AM CDT WED APR 23 2014

   VALID 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG...OR PERHAPS ONE OR TWO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS...MAY
   DEVELOP ACROSS PARTS OF THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND ALONG A DRYLINE
   OVER NORTHWESTERN TEXAS AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...SERN U.S...

   SUBTLE BUT POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EAST
   OF THE APPALACHIANS FRIDAY AFTERNOON.  TIMING OF THIS FEATURE DOES
   NOT CORRELATE WELL WITH DIURNAL HEATING BUT IT MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN
   GENERATING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS COASTAL CAROLINAS.  IF TIMING
   OF SHORT WAVE IS TOO EARLY THEN STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING COULD
   STEEPEN LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES ENOUGH FOR A FEW POST-SHORT WAVE TSTMS
   WITHIN VEERED BUT MODESTLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS.  FOR NOW WILL INTRODUCE
   5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT FOR POOR TIMING OF SHORT WAVE AND
   WEAKLY CONVERGENT LOW LEVELS.

   ...SRN PLAINS DRYLINE...

   LEE TROUGH/DRYLINE IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SHARPENING ACROSS THE SRN
   HIGH PLAINS FRIDAY AFTEROON AS TROUGHING ESTABLISHES ITSELF OVER THE
   WRN U.S.  INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING IS FORECAST ACROSS WRN
   TX/OK DURING THE DAY WHERE SFC TEMPERATURES SHOULD SOAR THROUGH THE
   80S TO PERHAPS NEAR 90F AND THIS SHOULD BE ADEQUATE IN REMOVING
   EARLY-DAY INHIBITION.  ONE MAJOR CONCERN FOR ORGANIZED DEEP
   CONVECTION ALONG THE DRYLINE IS THE EXPECTED SHORT-WAVE RIDGING
   FORECAST ACROSS THIS REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON.  IT/S NOT ENTIRELY
   CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL ULTIMATELY EVOLVE...WITH THE PRIMARY
   THREAT DURING THE 22Z-03Z TIME FRAME.  NAM IS MOST AGGRESSIVE IN
   ALLOWING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS TO EVOLVE WITHIN AIRMASS
   CHARACTERIZED BY 1500 J/KG SBCAPE BUT STRONGLY SHEARED...SFC-6KM
   VALUES APPROACHING 50KT.  LOW SEVERE PROBS HAVE BEEN INTRODUCED FOR
   ISOLATED SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE LARGE HAIL/WIND.

   ..DARROW.. 04/23/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 23, 2014
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