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May 29, 2016 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sun May 29 07:30:53 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20160529 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20160529 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 290730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT SUN MAY 29 2016

   VALID 311200Z - 011200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE UPPER MS AND LOWER MO
   VALLEYS INTO THE CNTRL-SRN PLAINS...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS FOR THE NERN GULF COAST AND N
   FL...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TUESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING FROM THE UPPER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   SOUTHWESTWARD INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT PLAINS.  LOCALIZED STRONG
   THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND
   NORTH FLORIDA DURING THE AFTERNOON.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS...
   MODELS SHOW A MID-LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY PROGRESSING EWD ACROSS THE NRN
   PLAINS AND INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY ON TUESDAY.  A SURFACE LOW IS
   FORECAST TO MIGRATE EWD AND WEAKEN DURING THE PERIOD AS A COLD FRONT
   PUSHES EWD ACROSS PARTS OF THE UPPER MIDWEST WITH THE FRONT
   EXTENDING SWWD INTO THE SRN PLAINS BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. 
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 60S N TO THE
   MID-UPPER 60S DEG F OVER THE SRN PLAINS.  A BELT OF STRONGER MID- TO
   HIGH-LEVEL FLOW WILL LARGELY LAG BEHIND THE FRONT OVER THE UPPER
   MIDWEST SUPPORTING MAINLY A MULTICELLULAR MODE WITH SOME OF THE
   STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF AN ISOLD SEVERE RISK.  FARTHER S AND
   REMOVED FROM THE GLANCING INFLUENCE OF STRONGER FLOW...THE FRONT
   WILL BE THE PRIMARY FEATURE FOR TSTM INITIATION AS STRONG HEATING
   WEAKENS THE CAP.  STEEP H7-H5 LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO
   STRONG INSTABILITY.  THE OVERALL MODEST WIND FIELDS WILL TEND TO
   LIMIT THE OVERALL SEVERE RISK.  ISOLD LARGE HAIL EARLY IN THE
   CONVECTIVE CYCLE MAY BE FOLLOWED BY MORE OF A STRONG TO SEVERE WIND
   RISK BY EARLY EVENING WITH A FEW STORM CLUSTERS THAT MANAGE TO
   DEVELOP/CONGEAL AND MOVE SEWD.

   ...NORTHEASTERN GULF COAST AND N FL...
   MEDIUM-RANGE MODEL GUIDANCE /NAM-GFS-ECMWF-UKMET/ ALL INDICATE AN
   ACTIVE DAY FOR SEA BREEZE STORMS ALONG THE NERN GULF COAST INTO NRN
   FL.  THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATIONS AND STRONG HEATING WILL PROBABLY
   RESULT IN AT LEAST ISOLD TO SCATTERED STORMS BY EARLY-MID AFTERNOON.
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S TO NEAR 70 DEG F WILL YIELD
   AMPLE PW FOR WATER-LOADED DOWNDRAFTS CAPABLE OF A LOCALIZED STRONG
   TO LOW-END SEVERE GUSTS CAPABLE OF POCKETS OF WIND DAMAGE.  THIS
   ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN BY EARLY EVENING AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
   STABILIZES.

   ..SMITH.. 05/29/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: May 29, 2016
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