SPC AC 030736
   
   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0236 AM CDT THU JUL 03 2008
   
   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z
   
   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER ERN ND INTO NWRN MN...
   
   ...SYNOPSIS...
   
   LARGE SCALE PATTERN WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY AN UPPER TROUGH OVER
   THE ERN STATES. A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL DEAMPLIFY AS IT
   CRESTS UPPER RIDGE AND MOVES THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS
   VALLEY. UPPER RIDGE WILL PREVAIL FROM THE SRN ROCKIES THROUGH THE
   CNTRL AND SRN PLAINS. A COLD FRONT WILL ACCOMPANY THE SHORTWAVE
   TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE NRN PLAINS. A WEAK E-W ORIENTED FRONT WILL
   PERSIST FROM SRN PARTS OF THE OH OR TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC.
   
   
   ...NRN PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY AREA...
   
   BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE 60S WILL ADVECT NWD THROUGH THE NRN
   PLAINS BENEATH STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH A WARM
   EWD ADVECTING EML. THIS WILL RESULT IN MODERATE-STRONG INSTABILITY
   AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER WARMS DURING THE AFTERNOON. THE WARM EML WITH
   700 MB TEMPERATURES AOA 12 C WILL RESULT IN A STRONG CAP. HOWEVER...
   FORCING FOR ASCENT AND HEIGHT FALLS ATTENDING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH
   AND FRONT MAY CONTRIBUTE TO SUFFICIENT MID LEVEL COOLING FOR A FEW
   STORMS TO INITIATE IN VICINITY OF THE COLD FRONT BY LATE AFTERNOON
   OR EARLY EVENING. STRENGTHENING MID-UPPER FLOW ACCOMPANYING THE
   UPPER TROUGH WILL RESULT IN 30-40 KT BULK SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SOME
   STORM ORGANIZATION. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE
   POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGER STORMS. ACTIVITY MAY SPREAD INTO PARTS OF
   NWRN MN OVERNIGHT. 
   
   
   ...LOWER MS VALLEY THROUGH TN AND SRN OH VALLEYS AND MID ATLANTIC...
   
   
   WEAK LAPSE RATES AND POTENTIAL FOR AREAS OF WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL
   LIMIT MLCAPE INSTABILITY IN THIS REGION. HOWEVER...WHERE SUFFICIENT
   BOUNDARY LAYER WARMING OCCURS MLCAPE COULD APPROACH 1500 J/KG.
   STORMS SHOULD REDEVELOP IN WARM SECTOR AS WELL AS OVER THE HIGHER
   TERRAIN AND ALONG OLD OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES. VORTICITY MAXIMA ROTATING
   THROUGH UPPER TROUGH MAY ENHANCE STORM COVERAGE IN SOME AREAS.
   VERTICAL WIND PROFILES AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES WILL BE WEAK.
   HOWEVER...WHERE SUFFICIENT HEATING OCCURS...LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES
   MAY STEEPEN SUFFICIENTLY FOR A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND.
   
   ..DIAL.. 07/03/2008
   
   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1100Z