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Dec 3, 2016 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Dec 3 08:24:58 UTC 2016 (Print Version | 20161203 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20161203 0830Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 030824

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CST SAT DEC 03 2016

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
   GULF COAST STATES...

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE GULF
   COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS REMAIN POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER SOUTHERN
   PORTIONS OF THE GULF COAST STATES MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
   DAMAGING WIND AND A FEW TORNADOES WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS.

   ...SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF COAST STATES...

   MODELS HAVE CONVERGED ON SIMILAR SOLUTIONS AND CONTINUE TO INDICATE
   THE SOUTHERN-STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO
   WILL EJECT THROUGH EASTERN TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   MONDAY. AT LEAST WEAK CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR EARLY IN THE PERIOD
   OVER THE WESTERN GULF...AND THE CYCLONE WILL SUBSEQUENTLY DEVELOP
   NORTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...UNDERGOING
   MODEST DEEPENING IN THE PROCESS. A WARM FRONT WILL EXTEND EASTWARD
   FROM THE LOW ALONG THE GULF COAST EARLY MONDAY...BUT IT STILL APPEARS
   THE MORE UNSTABLE PORTION OF THE WARM SECTOR WILL STRUGGLE TO
   DEVELOP INLAND. THIS WILL BE DUE IN PART TO NORTHEAST TO EASTERLY
   TRAJECTORIES FROM A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE
   OHIO AND TENNESSEE VALLEYS AND ONGOING WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORMS
   NORTH OF THE FRONT WHICH WILL TEND TO REINFORCE THE NEAR-SURFACE
   STABLE LAYER. NEVERTHELESS...AT LEAST A WEAKLY UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR
   WILL MOVE INLAND LATER MONDAY AS THE SURFACE CYCLONE DEVELOPS
   NORTHWARD INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WHERE DEEP-LAYER WINDS
   AND VERTICAL SHEAR WILL STRENGTHEN WITH THE APPROACH OF THE
   SHORTWAVE TROUGH.

   A BROAD LOW-LEVEL JET WILL STRENGTHEN OVER THE GULF COAST STATES
   PROMOTING INLAND ADVANCE OF THE WARM FRONT AND SUBSEQUENT SEVERE
   THREAT EXPANDING FARTHER EAST INTO THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN GULF
   COAST AREA MONDAY NIGHT. STRONG EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR AND LARGE
   LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WILL FOSTER A RISK FOR A FEW SUPERCELLS AND
   BOWING SEGMENTS WITH AN ATTENDANT TORNADO/DAMAGING WIND THREAT WITH
   SURFACE BASED STORMS ALONG THE CONVEYOR BELT NEAR AND SOUTH OF THE
   WARM FRONT. HOWEVER...DEGREE OF THREAT REMAINS DEPENDENT ON AMOUNT OF
   BOUNDARY-LAYER DESTABILIZATION WHICH CURRENTLY REMAINS SOMEWHAT
   UNCERTAIN DUE TO LIKELIHOOD OF ONGOING WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AND RAIN.

   ..DIAL.. 12/03/2016

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
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Page last modified: December 03, 2016
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