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< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4-8 Outlook >
Aug 1, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Aug 1 07:24:02 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140801 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140801 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 010724

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0224 AM CDT FRI AUG 01 2014

   VALID 031200Z - 041200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG A COLD FRONT
   DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON FROM SOUTHERN MINNESOTA TO EASTERN
   NEBRASKA.  GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS SOME HAIL MAY BE NOTED WITH THIS
   ACTIVITY.

   ...UPPER MS VALLEY TO MID MO VALLEY...

   SEWD-MOVING SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL DIG ACROSS ONTARIO INTO THE NRN
   GREAT LAKES REGION SUNDAY.  THIS FEATURE WILL ENCOURAGE WEAK SFC
   ANTI-CYCLONE TO BUILD INTO THE NRN PLAINS/UPPER MS VALLEY...FORCING
   FRONTAL ZONE TO A POSITION FROM SERN MN...SWWD INTO ERN NEB AT PEAK
   HEATING.  WHILE LARGE-SCALE FORCING SHOULD REMAIN NEGLIGIBLE ACROSS
   THIS REGION...STRONG BOUNDARY-LAYER HEATING IS EXPECTED TO
   CONTRIBUTE TO LATE-AFTERNOON/EARLY-EVENING CONVECTION ALONG THE WIND
   SHIFT.  CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE BREACHED BY 22-23Z AND
   FRONTAL CONVERGENCE IS EXPECTED TO AID SCT TSTM DEVELOPMENT WITHIN A
   FAIRLY HOT LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MID MO VALLEY. 
   GUSTY WINDS AND SOME HAIL MAY ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS AS THEY DRIFT
   SOUTHWARD.

   ...SWRN U.S...

   WEAK MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS FORECAST TO LIFT NWD ACROSS THE LOWER
   CO RIVER VALLEY INTO SRN NV BY 04/12Z.  SUBSTANTIAL MOISTURE SURGE
   IS EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE.  LATEST NAM GUIDANCE IS FORECASTING
   1.5-2 INCH PW ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA INTO SRN
   NV.  INSTABILITY WILL BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON DAY2 CONVECTION AND THE
   RESIDUAL CLOUD-DEBRIS FIELD.  IF STRONG HEATING CAN DEVELOP IN
   PROXIMITY TO STRONGER SLY MEAN FLOW THEN ROBUST TSTMS COULD EVOLVE. 
   INFLUENCE OF DAY2 CONVECTION REMAINS TOO UNCERTAIN TO INTRODUCE
   SEVERE PROBS ATTM.

   ..DARROW.. 08/01/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 01, 2014
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