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Sep 20, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Sat Sep 20 07:23:16 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140920 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140920 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 200723

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0223 AM CDT SAT SEP 20 2014

   VALID 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND THE COASTAL
   SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF COAST REGION ON MONDAY. SOME OF THE
   THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO AND THE ADJACENT CENTRAL HIGH
   PLAINS COULD BE STRONG MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   A MODESTLY PROGRESSIVE BELT OF WESTERLIES WILL EXIST OVER THE CONUS
   ON MONDAY. WITHIN THIS REGIME...AN UPPER LOW WILL CONTINUE AN
   EASTWARD PROGRESSION FROM THE CENTRAL ROCKIES EARLY MONDAY TO THE
   NORTH-CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT.

   ASIDE FROM THE ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
   THUNDERSTORMS WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR THE COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
   COASTAL SOUTHEAST STATES AND GULF COAST REGION AS IT CONTINUES TO
   SPREAD SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THESE REGIONS. 

   ...CO FRONT RANGE/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...
   WEAK HEIGHT FALLS/DPVA WILL INFLUENCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
   ACROSS THE REGION IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DEEPENING LEE-SIDE SURFACE
   LOW/TROUGH AND INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. SUFFICIENT
   HEATING/DESTABILIZATION SHOULD ALLOW SOME STRONGER UPDRAFTS TO
   DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON...PARTICULARLY NEAR/JUST EAST OF THE CO
   FRONT RANGE WHERE MLCAPE MAY EXCEED 500 J/KG IN THE PRESENCE OF A
   MOISTENING BOUNDARY LAYER. EFFECTIVE SHEAR ON THE ORDER OF 35-40 KT
   COULD ALLOW FOR SOME SUSTAINED MULTICELLS/BRIEF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE
   OF MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. CONTINUED EASTWARD ADVANCEMENT OF THE
   UPPER LOW AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION SHOULD ALLOW STORMS TO
   SPREAD INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS MONDAY NIGHT...ALTHOUGH ANY
   SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL SHOULD GRADUALLY DIMINISH BY LATE EVENING.

   ..GUYER.. 09/20/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 20, 2014
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