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Apr 18, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Apr 18 07:05:51 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20140418 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20140418 0730Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 180704

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0204 AM CDT FRI APR 18 2014

   VALID 201200Z - 211200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED STRONG...OR POSSIBLY SEVERE...THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP
   ALONG A DRYLINE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS FROM WEST TEXAS INTO
   WESTERN OKLAHOMA.

   ...SOUTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...

   LOW-LATITUDE SHORT-WAVE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO PROGRESS ACROSS THE
   SRN ROCKIES INTO THE HIGH PLAINS OF WEST TX SUNDAY AFTERNOON. 
   MID-LEVEL FLOW IS SEASONALLY WEAK WITH THIS FEATURE AS 500 MB
   GRADIENT IS NOT PARTICULARLY TIGHT.  AS A RESULT...FLOW WITHIN THE
   BASE OF THE TROUGH...EXTENDING INTO THE TX SOUTH PLAINS...IS
   EXPECTED TO BE ON THE ORDER OF 30KT.  EVEN SO...SHORT WAVE IS
   EXPECTED TO INDUCE LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ALONG CONVERGENT DRYLINE BY
   AFTERNOON THAT SHOULD FOCUS DEEP CONVECTION.

   LATEST THINKING IS MODIFIED BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE SHOULD GRADUALLY
   ADVANCE NWD ACROSS THE WRN GULF BASIN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS WHERE SFC
   DEW POINTS ARE EXPECTED TO RISE THROUGH THE 50S.  AS TEMPERATURES
   WARM INTO THE LOWER 80S BOUNDARY LAYER PARCELS SHOULD FREELY CONVECT
   ALONG DRY LINE...MOST LIKELY BY 22Z.  FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST
   HIGH-BASED TSTMS SHOULD EVOLVE WHERE SFC-6KM BULK SHEAR COULD
   APPROACH 35KT NEAR THE RIO GRANDE RIVER...DROPPING TO NEAR 20KT
   ACROSS NWRN OK.  WILL INTRODUCE 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS TO ACCOUNT
   FOR A FEW SLOW-MOVING SUPERCELLS THAT COULD PRODUCE HAIL AND GUSTY
   WINDS.

   CONVECTION SHOULD ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS KS IMMEDIATELY
   AHEAD OF SFC LOW...STRETCHING NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT INTO IA. 
   FORECAST DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS QUITE WEAK ALONG THIS CORRIDOR AND FOR
   THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO MAINTAIN LESS THAN 5 PERCENT SEVERE PROBS.
   IF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE/INSTABILITY CAN RETURN TO THIS REGION THEN
   LOW SEVERE PROBS MAY BE ADDED TO ACCOUNT FOR HAIL/WIND POTENTIAL
   WITH SLOW-MOVING TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL PLAINS.

   ..DARROW.. 04/18/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: April 18, 2014
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