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Oct 24, 2014 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Fri Oct 24 07:16:52 UTC 2014 (Print Version | 20141024 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20141024 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 240716

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0216 AM CDT FRI OCT 24 2014

   VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ANTICIPATED ON SUNDAY NIGHT
   OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST. SMALL HAIL MAY OCCUR BUT CONFIDENCE IS TOO
   LOW TO IDENTIFY A MARGINAL SEVERE-HAIL AREA.

   ...SYNOPSIS...
   BROAD MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL SHIFT E FROM THE NORTHWEST TO THE NRN
   GREAT PLAINS THROUGH EARLY MON...WITH A DOWNSTREAM RIDGE MOVING FROM
   THE UPPER MIDWEST TO THE GREAT LAKES. PRIMARY SURFACE CYCLONE SHOULD
   TRACK FROM THE LEE OF THE SRN CANADIAN ROCKIES ACROSS THE SRN
   PRAIRIE PROVINCES WITH A COLD FRONT SWEEPING E AND REACHING THE
   UPPER MIDWEST TO CENTRAL GREAT PLAINS. A WARM FRONT WILL ADVANCE NE
   OVER THE UPPER MS VALLEY AND MIDWEST.

   ...UPPER MIDWEST...
   STRENGTHENING LOW-LEVEL WAA SHOULD YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
   ELEVATED CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS SUN NIGHT. GUIDANCE DIFFERS WITH THE
   DEGREE OF ELEVATED BUOYANCY AS THE NAM AND WRF-BASED SREF MEMBERS
   APPEAR MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH 850-700 MB MOISTURE RETURN COMPARED TO
   THE GFS AND NON-NCEP MODELS. LEANING WITH THE LESS AGGRESSIVE
   GUIDANCE...THE PREDOMINANT SWLY FLOW REGIME SHOULD EFFECTIVELY CAP
   TSTM DEVELOPMENT TO ALONG THE ERN PERIPHERY OF THE MOISTURE PLUME
   WHERE BUOYANCY SHOULD BE WEAK. GIVEN CLOSE PROXIMITY TO THE
   DEPARTING MID-LEVEL RIDGE...EFFECTIVE SHEAR SHOULD REMAIN MODERATE.
   IN CONJUNCTION WITH A PROBABLE CLUSTER MODE...IT APPEARS PREMATURE
   TO HIGHLIGHT WHAT MAY ONLY BE A NARROW CORRIDOR OF MARGINAL SEVERE
   HAIL POTENTIAL.

   ..GRAMS.. 10/24/2014

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: October 24, 2014
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