Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 2 Outlook   Day 4 - 8 Outlook >
Feb 23, 2017 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Thu Feb 23 08:28:04 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170223 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170223 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Probabilistic
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 230828

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0228 AM CST Thu Feb 23 2017

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR A LARGE PART
   OF VIRGINIA AND THE DELMARVA NORTHWARD INTO NEW
   JERSEY...PENNSYLVANIA...AND WESTERN NEW YORK...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms potentially capable of isolated damaging winds are
   possible from the Mid-Atlantic states northward through western New
   York on Saturday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A very strong and negatively tilted shortwave trough is forecast to
   move from the central Great Lakes and Upper Ohio Valley through the
   Mid-Atlantic states and much of the Northeast Saturday and Saturday
   night.  An occluded surface low will develop northeastward from
   northern Michigan into northern Quebec while a cold front pushes
   eastward and southeastward across the Northeast through the
   Southeast and into the western Atlantic.  Farther west, a mid-level
   low/shortwave trough will move southward along the CA coast and into
   the Mojave Desert.

   ...Mid-Atlantic states and western NY...
   A squall line or convective line will likely be ongoing Saturday
   morning over the central Appalachians northward into western
   portions of PA/NY.  Very strong lower-tropospheric wind fields (60
   kt at 700-mb) and weak buoyancy (100-500 J/kg MUCAPE) that can aid
   in sustaining a squall line may result in a scenario with
   quasi-horizontal momentum transport in the form of isolated damaging
   gusts.  Farther south near the Mason-Dixon line, models indicate
   greater destabilization may occur during the day as a convective
   line reinvigorates or new storms develop within a low CAPE/high
   shear environment. The strong forcing for ascent (i.e., 500-mb 12-hr
   height falls 90-150 m) will likely aid in sustaining this activity
   as it moves eastward to the coast and perhaps maintains a
   strong/severe risk, primarily in the form of damaging gusts, to
   DelMarVa and the New Jersey coast.

   ..Smith.. 02/23/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z

        
Top/Latest Day 1 Outlook/Today's Outlooks/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: February 23, 2017
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities