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Sep 25, 2017 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Sep 25 07:23:11 UTC 2017 (Print Version | 20170925 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20170925 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 250723

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0223 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   The severe weather threat across the continental U.S. is expected to
   be low on Wednesday.

   ...Synopsis...
   A cut-off low across the Southwest will remain nearly stationary
   throughout the forecast period.  Farther east, mid-level flow will
   strengthen across the Great Lakes and vicinity in response to a
   series of amplifying troughs migrating eastward across Ontario and
   Quebec.  A ridge will also remain nearly stationary across Texas and
   Louisiana.

   At the surface, an expansive ridge will overspread much of the
   CONUS, including the Rockies, Plains, and western Great Lakes.  This
   ridge will result in a cooler, drier airmass in many areas northwest
   of a front located from south Texas through Arkansas and into Ohio. 
   With deeper boundary layer moisture displaced from areas of
   mid-level flow, the severe threat across much of the country (except
   for the Southwest) will be fairly low.

   Across the Southwest, models are consistent in depicting scattered
   convection during the afternoon on the east side of the cutoff low. 
   Deep shear profiles will encourage some organization and the
   expected steep lapse rates that will exist by mid to late afternoon
   may support isolated downburst winds approaching severe limits. 
   Models are not consistent regarding the amount of destabilization
   across the region - with these inconsistencies primarily tied to the
   amount of mid-level cooling across portions of eastern Arizona and
   western New Mexico.  At this time, the severe risk is expected to be
   too isolated to merit severe probabilities, although the region will
   be monitored in later outlooks.

   ..Cook.. 09/25/2017

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: September 25, 2017
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