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Aug 3, 2015 0730 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Mon Aug 3 07:30:09 UTC 2015 (Print Version | 20150803 0730Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150803 0730Z Day 3 KML)
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 Forecast Discussion
   SPC AC 030730

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   0230 AM CDT MON AUG 03 2015

   VALID 051200Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER A PORTION OF THE LOWER-MID
   MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS MAY OCCUR FROM PARTS OF THE LOWER TO
   MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY AND WESTERN TENNESSEE VALLEY ON WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

   ...LOWER-MID MS VALLEY AND WRN TN VALLEY REGION...

   THOUGH SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES EXIST...MODELS ARE IN REASONABLE
   AGREEMENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT VORTICITY MAXIMUM WILL MOVE SLOWLY
   THROUGH THE LOWER-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE WRN TN VALLEY WEDNESDAY
   AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MEANWHILE...A QUASI-STATIONARY FRONT WILL
   REMAIN SITUATED FROM THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC AREA WWD THROUGH KS. AS THE
   VORTICITY MAXIMUM SHIFTS EWD...THE FRONT SHOULD BEGIN TO ADVANCE SWD
   INTO OK DURING THE DAY. IT IS LIKELY THAT AREAS OF WIDESPREAD
   SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ONGOING WEDNESDAY
   MORNING...ESPECIALLY FROM ERN KS INTO MO WHERE DEEPER ASCENT WILL BE
   MAXIMIZED AS A RESULT OF THE VORTICITY MAXIMUM AND ATTENDANT LLJ
   INTERACTING WITH THE FRONTAL ZONE. THIS ACTIVITY WILL SHIFT EWD WITH
   TIME...AND SOME POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR THE WARM SECTOR TO
   DESTABILIZE SOUTH OF THE FRONT. IF SUFFICIENT DESTABILIZATION
   OCCURS...ADDITIONAL STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON.
   STRONGER DEEP-LAYER WINDS ACCOMPANYING THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL
   RESULT IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS.
   GIVEN THE SOMEWHAT CONDITIONAL NATURE OF THE THREAT DUE LARGELY TO
   UNCERTAINTY REGARDING PLACEMENT AND EVOLUTION OF EARLY
   CONVECTION...HAVE OPTED TO INTRODUCE A MARGINAL RISK AREA AND
   CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR A POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS.

   ..DIAL.. 08/03/2015

   CLICK TO GET WUUS03 PTSDY3 PRODUCT

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z

        
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Page last modified: August 03, 2015
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