SPC AC 170825
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0225 AM CST Sat Feb 17 2018
Valid 191200Z - 201200Z
...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...
Showers and occasional/embedded lightning will again be possible
over parts of the West Monday, while showers and thunderstorms are
expected from portions of the southern Plains north-northeast toward
the Upper Great Lakes region.
Continued amplification of the upper flow field across the U.S. is
expected Monday, as additional expansion -- and some slow eastward
progression -- of the western U.S. trough is expected. In response,
intensification of the upper ridging over the southeast U.S. and
adjacent western Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico is expected.
At the surface, a baroclinic zone over the central portions of the
country is forecast to re-orient to a more northeast-to-southwest
alignment, as cold air spreads southward across the west and warm
advection continues across central and northeastern portions of the
Showers -- and occasional/embedded lightning -- will likely continue
to spread south across the interior West, including portions of the
Great Basin. Meanwhile, some decrease in early-period convection --
lingering from the overnight hours -- may occur during the day, only
to redevelop/expand nocturnally through the end of the period. This
convection will remain elevated, with a general lack of CAPE likely
to hinder any severe potential. With that said, hints exist at the
possibility for some small hail across portions of the
Kansas/Oklahoma regions and vicinity during latter stages of the
period, pending ample elevated CAPE development, given background
shear sufficient for organized updrafts.
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z