Jan 28, 2015 0830 UTC Day 3 Severe Thunderstorm Outlook
Updated: Wed Jan 28 06:46:52 UTC 2015 (20150128 0830Z Day 3 shapefile | 20150128 0830Z Day 3 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
0830 UTC Day 3 Outlook Graphic
Day 3 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Graphic
20150128 0830 UTC Day Probabilitic Graphic
Probability of severe weather within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of significant severe within 25 miles of a point.
Day 3 Prob. Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 280646

   DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
   NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
   1246 AM CST WED JAN 28 2015

   VALID 301200Z - 311200Z

   ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE BEGINNING LATE AFTERNOON
   FRIDAY OVER SOUTHERN ARIZONA.

   ...SRN AZ...
   WEAK MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD DRIFT E DURING THE PERIOD...ANCHORED
   NEAR THE LOWER CO VALLEY TO GULF OF CA. SEVERAL MINOR VORTICITY
   MAXIMA SHOULD ROTATE WITHIN THE BROADER CIRCULATION FROM ORE TO NWRN
   MEXICO. GRADUAL LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING SHOULD RESULT IN A PLUME OF
   MIDDLE 40S TO LOWER 50S SURFACE DEW POINTS OVER SRN AZ. WITH
   MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES PROGGED TO COOL DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE
   PERIOD...MEAGER BUOYANCY WITH MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CHARGE SEPARATION
   MAY SUPPORT ISOLATED TSTMS.

   ..GRAMS.. 01/28/2015

   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0830Z