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SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 4
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 PM CST SAT JAN 12 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHERN LOUISIANA
NORTHWESTERN MISSISSIPPI
SMALL PART OF EAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1130 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF
NATCHITOCHES LOUISIANA TO 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF OXFORD
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...THIS TORNADO WATCH REPLACES TORNADO
WATCH NUMBER 3. WATCH NUMBER 3 WILL NOT BE IN EFFECT AFTER 1130
PM CST.
DISCUSSION...BAND OF NEAR-FRONTAL CONVECTION BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE IMPINGING UPON WARM-SECTOR
CAPE-SHEAR PARAMETER SPACE THAT WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR SVR
THROUGH MOST OF PRE-DAWN HOURS. REF MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 21 FOR
MORE INITIAL DETAILS. DAMAGING GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE...AND A TORNADO
THREAT DOES EXIST WITH ANY QLCS MESOVORTICES OR EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 4 TORNADO AR LA MS TX 130530Z - 131200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SSW IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/ - 40NW UOX/OXFORD MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /46W AEX - 16S MEM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23040.
REPLACES WW 3..AR MO
LAT...LON 31129456 34779126 34778879 31129220
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 4 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 4
VALID 131030Z - 131140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE GWO TO
45 NNW GWO TO 20 SSE MEM.
THE REMAINING VALID PORTION OF WW 4 MAY BE CANCELLED EARLY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 24.
..KERR..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MSC009-071-093-107-119-135-137-161-131140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON LAFAYETTE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN TALLAHATCHIE
TATE YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 4
VALID 130930Z - 131040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 WNW POE
TO 15 WSW IER TO 35 NNE MLU TO 30 N GLH TO 20 S MEM.
..KERR..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC003-017-077-107-139-131040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ASHLEY CHICOT LEE
PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083-
107-111-123-127-131040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND
TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-
143-151-161-131040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA
DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 4
VALID 130840Z - 130940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 WNW POE
TO 20 SW LLQ TO 50 WSW MEM.
..KERR..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-017-041-043-077-079-107-139-130940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY CHICOT
DESHA DREW LEE
LINCOLN PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-083-
107-111-123-127-130940-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE EAST CARROLL FRANKLIN
GRANT JACKSON LA SALLE
LINCOLN MADISON MOREHOUSE
NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA RICHLAND
TENSAS UNION WEST CARROLL
WINN
$$
MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-
143-151-161-130940-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA
DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 4
VALID 130730Z - 130840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139-
130840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DESHA DREW
JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN
MONROE PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-
143-151-161-130840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA
DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
TXC005-347-403-405-419-130840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 4
VALID 130625Z - 130740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..KERR..01/13/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...JAN...SHV...MEG...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 4
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-003-011-013-017-025-027-041-043-069-077-079-095-107-139-
130740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS ASHLEY BRADLEY
CALHOUN CHICOT CLEVELAND
COLUMBIA DESHA DREW
JEFFERSON LEE LINCOLN
MONROE PHILLIPS UNION
$$
LAC013-021-025-027-031-035-041-043-049-059-061-065-067-069-073-
081-083-085-107-111-119-123-127-130740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE CALDWELL CATAHOULA
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO EAST CARROLL
FRANKLIN GRANT JACKSON
LA SALLE LINCOLN MADISON
MOREHOUSE NATCHITOCHES OUACHITA
RED RIVER RICHLAND SABINE
TENSAS UNION WEBSTER
WEST CARROLL WINN
$$
MSC009-011-027-033-053-055-071-083-093-107-119-125-133-135-137-
143-151-161-130740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON BOLIVAR COAHOMA
DESOTO HUMPHREYS ISSAQUENA
LAFAYETTE LEFLORE MARSHALL
PANOLA QUITMAN SHARKEY
SUNFLOWER TALLAHATCHIE TATE
TUNICA WASHINGTON YALOBUSHA
$$
TXC005-347-403-405-419-130740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
