Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 6
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
725 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST ARKANSAS
EASTERN KANSAS
WEST-CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI
NORTHEAST OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 725 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MUSKOGEE
OKLAHOMA TO 15 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF KNOB NOSTER MISSOURI.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...
DISCUSSION...A COMPLEX SCENARIO IS UNFOLDING THIS MORNING INVOLVING
A LONG-LIVED BOWING LINE SEGMENT AND INCREASING TSTM DEVELOPMENT
ALONG A COLD FRONT ADVANCING SEWD INTO THE WATCH AREA. CURRENT
THINKING IS THAT THE LINE SEGMENT WILL EVENTUALLY MERGE WITH THE
FRONTAL CONVECTION...RESULTING IN A LARGER-SCALE QLCS WHICH WILL
MOVE RAPIDLY INTO THE OZARK PLATEAU. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS
INDICATE THAT THE AMBIENT ENVIRONMENT IS ONLY WEAKLY UNSTABLE WITH
MLCAPE OF 500-1000 J/KG. HOWEVER...GIVEN AN INCREASE IN LARGE-SCALE
FORCING FOR ASCENT AND STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR...THE
SETUP WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 6 TORNADO AR KS MO OK 291325Z - 292100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30SW MKO/MUSKOGEE OK/ - 15NNW SZL/KNOB NOSTER MO/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /31N MLC - 55ESE MCI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 35369698 38909495 38909234 35369450
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 6 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 6
VALID 292035Z - 292140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 N MLC TO
35 SW GMJ TO 15 ENE GMJ TO 10 S SGF.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-292140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-059-077-105-119-131-209-225-292140-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
DALLAS GREENE LACLEDE
MCDONALD MILLER STONE
WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-041-091-097-101-107-111-135-145-292140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE SEQUOYAH
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 6
VALID 291930Z - 292040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CQB
TO 20 WSW GMJ TO 20 N UMN TO 20 WNW COU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 72
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-292040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-029-043-059-077-085-105-109-119-131-141-145-167-209-225-
292040-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY CAMDEN CHRISTIAN
DALLAS GREENE HICKORY
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
POLK STONE WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-041-091-097-101-107-111-135-145-292040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE DELAWARE
MCINTOSH MAYES MUSKOGEE
OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE SEQUOYAH
WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 6
VALID 291825Z - 291940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 S CQB TO
5 NW TUL TO 20 WSW JLN TO 35 ENE SZL.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-291940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-085-097-105-109-119-131-
141-145-167-185-209-225-291940-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HICKORY JASPER LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER
MORGAN NEWTON POLK
ST. CLAIR STONE WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-091-097-101-107-111-115-131-135-143-145-
291940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE OKFUSKEE OKMULGEE
OTTAWA ROGERS SEQUOYAH
TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 6
VALID 291730Z - 291840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE CQB
TO 35 W JLN TO 30 NE SZL.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 70
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-291840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-291840-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE
$$
MOC009-011-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-105-109-119-
131-141-145-159-167-185-209-217-225-291840-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BENTON
CAMDEN CEDAR CHRISTIAN
DADE DALLAS GREENE
HENRY HICKORY JASPER
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE VERNON WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-091-097-101-105-107-111-115-131-135-143-145-
291840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 6
VALID 291640Z - 291740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW BVO
TO 25 SE CNU TO 20 NNW SZL.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-291740-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC021-037-291740-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-101-105-
109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-217-225-291740-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CEDAR
CHRISTIAN DADE DALLAS
GREENE HENRY HICKORY
JASPER JOHNSON LACLEDE
LAWRENCE MCDONALD MILLER
MORGAN NEWTON PETTIS
POLK ST. CLAIR STONE
VERNON WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-091-097-101-105-107-111-115-131-135-143-145-
147-291740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 6
VALID 291535Z - 291640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 W BVO TO
30 ESE MKC.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-291640-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC011-021-037-099-107-125-133-291640-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LABETTE LINN MONTGOMERY
NEOSHO
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-101-
105-109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-217-225-291640-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE HENRY
HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE VERNON WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-091-097-101-105-107-111-115-131-135-143-145-
147-291640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 6
VALID 291425Z - 291540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SGF...ICT...EAX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 6
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC007-015-033-087-143-291540-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENTON CARROLL CRAWFORD
MADISON WASHINGTON
$$
KSC011-021-037-099-107-121-125-133-291540-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON CHEROKEE CRAWFORD
LABETTE LINN MIAMI
MONTGOMERY NEOSHO
$$
MOC009-011-013-015-029-037-039-043-057-059-077-083-085-097-101-
105-109-119-131-141-145-159-167-185-209-217-225-291540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARRY BARTON BATES
BENTON CAMDEN CASS
CEDAR CHRISTIAN DADE
DALLAS GREENE HENRY
HICKORY JASPER JOHNSON
LACLEDE LAWRENCE MCDONALD
MILLER MORGAN NEWTON
PETTIS POLK ST. CLAIR
STONE VERNON WEBSTER
$$
OKC001-021-035-041-091-097-101-105-107-111-115-131-135-143-145-
147-291540-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CRAIG
DELAWARE MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OTTAWA ROGERS
SEQUOYAH TULSA WAGONER
WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.