Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 7
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 AM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND EVENING FROM 1100 AM UNTIL 700
PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTHWEST OF POTEAU
OKLAHOMA TO 80 MILES SOUTH OF PARIS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 5...WW 6...
DISCUSSION...A BAND OF PRE-FRONTAL ASCENT OVERSPREADING NE TX/SE OK
WILL SUPPORT NEW THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON
WITHIN THE UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR. THOUGH CLOUDS ARE LIMITING SURFACE
HEATING...DEWPOINTS IN THE MID 60S AND REMNANT STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE
RATES WILL DRIVE MLCAPE TO THE 750-1500 J/KG RANGE BY EARLY-MID
AFTERNOON. VERTICAL SHEAR IS FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS AND BOWING
SEGMENTS ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...AND THIS WILL SUPPORT A RISK FOR
TORNADOES...DAMAGING WINDS...AND AT LEAST ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
THROUGH THIS EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 7 TORNADO AR OK TX 291700Z - 300100Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35NW RKR/POTEAU OK/ - 80S PRX/PARIS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /39W FSM - 36W GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23045.
LAT...LON 35369363 32459408 32459681 35369648
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 7 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #7 ON WW 7
VALID 292235Z - 292340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW GYI
TO 15 E DUA TO 30 SE MKO.
..MOSIER..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
292340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC023-061-077-079-089-127-292340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW HASKELL LATIMER
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-343-
379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-292340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
RAINS RED RIVER ROCKWALL
SMITH TITUS UPSHUR
VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 7
VALID 292140Z - 292240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N GYI TO
20 SE MKO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 73
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
292240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-292240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-292240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 7
VALID 292135Z - 292240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ESE ADM
TO 15 SSE MKO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 73
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
292240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-023-061-077-079-089-121-127-292240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-292240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 7
VALID 292035Z - 292140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NE ADM TO
30 SW MKO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 73
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
292140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-023-029-061-063-069-077-079-089-095-121-127-292140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
COAL HASKELL HUGHES
JOHNSTON LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PITTSBURG
PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-292140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 7
VALID 291930Z - 292040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
292040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-089-095-099-
121-123-127-133-292040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-292040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 7
VALID 291820Z - 291940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
291940-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-089-095-099-
121-123-127-133-291940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-291940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 7
VALID 291730Z - 291840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..01/29/13
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...LZK...OUN...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 7
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC047-057-061-071-081-083-091-097-109-113-115-127-131-133-149-
291840-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN HEMPSTEAD HOWARD
JOHNSON LITTLE RIVER LOGAN
MILLER MONTGOMERY PIKE
POLK POPE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER YELL
$$
OKC005-013-019-023-029-061-063-067-069-077-079-085-089-095-099-
121-123-127-133-291840-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CARTER
CHOCTAW COAL HASKELL
HUGHES JEFFERSON JOHNSTON
LATIMER LE FLORE LOVE
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL MURRAY
PITTSBURG PONTOTOC PUSHMATAHA
SEMINOLE
$$
TXC037-063-067-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-223-231-257-277-315-
343-379-387-397-423-449-459-467-499-291840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HOPKINS HUNT
KAUFMAN LAMAR MARION
MORRIS RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL SMITH TITUS
UPSHUR VAN ZANDT WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (40%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.