Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 11
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
715 PM CST TUE JAN 29 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN ILLINOIS
WESTERN KENTUCKY
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 715 PM
UNTIL 100 AM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF POPLAR
BLUFF MISSOURI TO 10 MILES NORTH OF MOUNT VERNON ILLINOIS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 9...WW 10...
DISCUSSION...LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTHERN MO IS EXPECTED TO
INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS AS THE LOW LEVEL JET BECOMES
VERY STRONG AND THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES. DESPITE WEAK
INSTABILITY...90KT+ WINDS IN THE LOWEST 3KM COUPLED WITH EXTREME
SHEAR VALUES WILL PROMOTE A RISK OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS IN STRONGER
CONVECTIVE ELEMENTS...ALONG WITH A RISK OF ISOLATED EMBEDDED
TORNADOES.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 11 TORNADO IL KY MO 300115Z - 300700Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
30SE POF/POPLAR BLUFF MO/ - 10N MVN/MOUNT VERNON IL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /46NW DYR - 61WNW PXV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22050.
LAT...LON 36459126 38459006 38458766 36458891
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 11 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 11
VALID 300435Z - 300540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW DYR TO
15 NE MVN.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 83.
..GRAMS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC047-059-065-069-087-127-151-153-165-185-191-193-199-300540-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
EDWARDS GALLATIN HAMILTON
HARDIN JOHNSON MASSAC
POPE PULASKI SALINE
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-300540-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC133-143-300540-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 11
VALID 300335Z - 300440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SSE POF
TO 25 WSW SLO.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 83
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-165-181-
185-191-193-199-300440-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI SALINE UNION
WABASH WAYNE WHITE
WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-300440-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC031-133-143-201-207-300440-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAPE GIRARDEAU MISSISSIPPI NEW MADRID
SCOTT STODDARD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 11
VALID 300235Z - 300340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PAH...LSX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 11
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ILC003-047-055-059-065-069-077-081-087-127-145-151-153-157-165-
181-185-191-193-199-300340-
IL
. ILLINOIS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDER EDWARDS FRANKLIN
GALLATIN HAMILTON HARDIN
JACKSON JEFFERSON JOHNSON
MASSAC PERRY POPE
PULASKI RANDOLPH SALINE
UNION WABASH WAYNE
WHITE WILLIAMSON
$$
KYC007-039-075-083-105-145-300340-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALLARD CARLISLE FULTON
GRAVES HICKMAN MCCRACKEN
$$
MOC017-023-031-035-123-133-143-157-181-186-187-201-207-223-
300340-
MO
. MISSOURI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOLLINGER BUTLER CAPE GIRARDEAU
CARTER MADISON MISSISSIPPI
NEW MADRID PERRY RIPLEY
STE. GENEVIEVE ST. FRANCOIS SCOTT
STODDARD WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.