Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
435 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 435 AM UNTIL NOON EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 75 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF
LONDON KENTUCKY TO 35 MILES NORTH OF LEXINGTON KENTUCKY. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 12...WW 13...WW 14...
DISCUSSION...A QLCS WITH EMBEDDED LEWP STRUCTURES WILL CONTINUE EWD
ACROSS THE WATCH AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. WHILE THE AIR MASS IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN ONLY VERY WEAKLY UNSTABLE...THE PRESENCE OF
STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND INTENSE LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR
WILL PROMOTE IN-LINE MESO-VORTICES WITH AN ATTENDANT THREAT FOR
DAMAGING WINDS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO OR TWO.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 15 TORNADO KY 300935Z - 301700Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
75WSW LOZ/LONDON KY/ - 35N LEX/LEXINGTON KY/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /56ESE BWG - 29S CVG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 36658641 38528570 38528348 36658425
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 15 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 15
VALID 301255Z - 301330Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SW LOZ TO
15 SSW LOZ.
AFTER THE LINE OF LOW-TOPPED CONVECTION MOVES E OF SOUTH CENTRAL
OH...EXITING THE NERN EXTENT OF WW 15 BETWEEN 13-1330Z...THEN THIS
WW COULD BE CANCELED EARLY.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 93.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC135-301330-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LEWIS
$$
OHC131-141-145-301330-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
PIKE ROSS SCIOTO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 15
VALID 301150Z - 301240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N CSV TO
40 NW LOZ TO 35 NNE LEX.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC017-023-049-067-079-097-135-137-151-161-181-201-301240-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOURBON BRACKEN CLARK
FAYETTE GARRARD HARRISON
LEWIS LINCOLN MADISON
MASON NICHOLAS ROBERTSON
$$
OHC001-015-025-071-131-141-145-301240-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAMS BROWN CLERMONT
HIGHLAND PIKE ROSS
SCIOTO
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 15
VALID 301040Z - 301140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 ESE BWG
TO 50 ENE BWG TO 20 SE SDF TO 35 NE SDF.
..PETERS..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...LMK...JKL...ILN...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 15
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KYC001-005-011-017-021-023-041-045-049-053-057-065-067-069-073-
077-079-081-087-097-103-109-113-125-129-137-147-151-155-161-165-
167-169-171-173-179-181-187-191-197-199-201-203-205-207-209-211-
215-217-229-231-235-239-301140-
KY
. KENTUCKY COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR ANDERSON BATH
BOURBON BOYLE BRACKEN
CARROLL CASEY CLARK
CLINTON CUMBERLAND ESTILL
FAYETTE FLEMING FRANKLIN
GALLATIN GARRARD GRANT
GREEN HARRISON HENRY
JACKSON JESSAMINE LAUREL
LEE LINCOLN MCCREARY
MADISON MARION MASON
MENIFEE MERCER METCALFE
MONROE MONTGOMERY NELSON
NICHOLAS OWEN PENDLETON
POWELL PULASKI ROBERTSON
ROCKCASTLE ROWAN RUSSELL
SCOTT SHELBY SPENCER
TAYLOR WASHINGTON WAYNE
WHITLEY WOODFORD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
@NWSSPC
