Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 20
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
830 AM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN MARYLAND PANHANDLE
SOUTHEAST OHIO
SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA
WESTERN VIRGINIA
WEST VIRGINIA
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 830 AM UNTIL
400 PM EST.
HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
DUBLIN VIRGINIA TO 15 MILES NORTH OF PITTSBURGH PENNSYLVANIA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...WW 16...WW 17...WW
18...WW 19...
DISCUSSION...NRN EXTENSION OF QLCS OVER THE UPPER OH VALLEY IS
EXPECTED TO PROGRESS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA THIS MORNING INTO
EARLY AFTERNOON. 12Z OBSERVED SOUNDINGS AND ABSENCE OF LIGHTNING
INDICATE THAT AMBIENT AIR MASS IS ONLY MARGINALLY UNSTABLE...AND
CONVECTION IS QUITE SHALLOW. NONETHELESS...INTENSE FORCING FOR
ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR ARE EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN THE CONVECTIVE
SYSTEM WITH AN ATTENDANT RISK FOR PRIMARILY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS.
A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION
VECTOR 22045.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 20 SEVERE TSTM MD OH PA VA WV 301330Z - 302100Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45SW PSK/DUBLIN VA/ - 15N PIT/PITTSBURGH PA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /36SW PSK - 7S EWC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 300. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 36658233 40708137 40707908 36658016
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 20 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 20
VALID 301730Z - 301840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 N TRI TO
20 ESE EKN.
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC021-035-071-077-155-173-185-197-640-750-301840-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND CARROLL GILES
GRAYSON PULASKI SMYTH
TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
GALAX RADFORD
$$
WVC025-047-055-063-075-089-301840-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENBRIER MCDOWELL MERCER
MONROE POCAHONTAS SUMMERS
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 20
VALID 301630Z - 301740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 N TRI TO
45 NNW SSU TO 30 SSW DUJ.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 96
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-301740-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
VAC021-035-071-077-155-173-185-197-640-750-301740-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND CARROLL GILES
GRAYSON PULASKI SMYTH
TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
GALAX RADFORD
$$
WVC001-019-025-047-055-063-067-075-077-081-083-089-093-097-101-
109-301740-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR FAYETTE GREENBRIER
MCDOWELL MERCER MONROE
NICHOLAS POCAHONTAS PRESTON
RALEIGH RANDOLPH SUMMERS
TUCKER UPSHUR WEBSTER
WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 20
VALID 301525Z - 301640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 WNW BLF
TO 15 E CRW TO 20 NNE PIT.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 96
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-301640-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-051-059-063-125-129-301640-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER FAYETTE GREENE
INDIANA WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$
VAC021-035-071-077-155-173-185-197-640-750-301640-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND CARROLL GILES
GRAYSON PULASKI SMYTH
TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
GALAX RADFORD
$$
WVC001-007-015-017-019-021-025-033-041-047-049-055-061-063-067-
075-077-081-083-089-091-093-097-101-109-301640-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BRAXTON CLAY
DODDRIDGE FAYETTE GILMER
GREENBRIER HARRISON LEWIS
MCDOWELL MARION MERCER
MONONGALIA MONROE NICHOLAS
POCAHONTAS PRESTON RALEIGH
RANDOLPH SUMMERS TAYLOR
TUCKER UPSHUR WEBSTER
WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 20
VALID 301435Z - 301540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..COHEN..01/30/13
ATTN...WFO...PBZ...RLX...RNK...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 20
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC023-301540-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GARRETT
$$
OHC009-013-019-029-059-067-081-111-115-121-167-301540-
OH
. OHIO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATHENS BELMONT CARROLL
COLUMBIANA GUERNSEY HARRISON
JEFFERSON MONROE MORGAN
NOBLE WASHINGTON
$$
PAC003-005-007-019-051-059-063-125-129-301540-
PA
. PENNSYLVANIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALLEGHENY ARMSTRONG BEAVER
BUTLER FAYETTE GREENE
INDIANA WASHINGTON WESTMORELAND
$$
VAC021-035-071-077-155-173-185-197-640-750-301540-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BLAND CARROLL GILES
GRAYSON PULASKI SMYTH
TAZEWELL WYTHE
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
GALAX RADFORD
$$
WVC001-007-009-013-015-017-019-021-025-029-033-041-047-049-051-
055-061-063-067-069-073-075-077-081-083-085-087-089-091-093-095-
097-101-103-105-107-109-301540-
WV
. WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BRAXTON BROOKE
CALHOUN CLAY DODDRIDGE
FAYETTE GILMER GREENBRIER
HANCOCK HARRISON LEWIS
MCDOWELL MARION MARSHALL
MERCER MONONGALIA MONROE
NICHOLAS OHIO PLEASANTS
POCAHONTAS PRESTON RALEIGH
RANDOLPH RITCHIE ROANE
SUMMERS TAYLOR TUCKER
TYLER UPSHUR WEBSTER
WETZEL WIRT WOOD
WYOMING
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (<5%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.