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SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 24
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
630 PM EST WED JAN 30 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MARYLAND
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN VIRGINIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 630 PM
UNTIL 200 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 35 MILES NORTH OF BALTIMORE
MARYLAND TO 45 MILES WEST OF RICHMOND VIRGINIA. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 21...WW 22...WW 23...
DISCUSSION...PRE-FRONTAL SQLN WITH EMBEDDED SUSTAINED STORMS/LEWPS
NOW NEAR CHARLOTTESVILLE VA EXPECTED TO MOVE RAPIDLY NEWD AHEAD OF
EJECTING SHORTWAVE TROUGH NOW OVER THE LWR TN VLY. SUFFICIENT
BUOYANCY LIKELY WILL REMAIN PRESENT TO MAINTAIN STRENGTH OF PRESENT
ACTIVITY...WITH SOME INTENSIFICATION POSSIBLE A BIT LATER AS
SHORTWAVE IMPULSE DRAWS CLOSER TO SQLN/AXIS OF LOW-LVL ASCENT.
SHALLOW WSW-ENE BOUNDARY LEFT BY EARLIER WAVE OF STORMS IN THE
BALTIMORE AREA EXPECTED TO EDGE SLIGHTLY NWD THROUGH THE
EVE...THEREBY EXTENDING THE THREAT SOMEWHAT NWD ACROSS THE UPR
CHESAPEAKE BAY INTO AREA NOW BLANKETED BY SHALLOW LAYER OF COOL AIR.
ADDITIONAL STORMS MAY MOVE INTO S CNTRL/SE VA LATER TNGT AS STORMS
MOVE/ACCELERATE ENE FROM NC. THIS AREA MAY REQUIRE A SEPARATE WW
LATER IN THE EVE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 24 TORNADO DC MD VA CW 302330Z - 310700Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
35N BWI/BALTIMORE MD/ - 45W RIC/RICHMOND VA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /18NE EMI - 39W RIC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 350. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22055.
LAT...LON 39687573 37497722 37497904 39687761
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 24 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 24
VALID 310535Z - 310640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 W RIC TO
45 N RIC TO 20 WSW NHK.
..GUYER..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC033-085-310640-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE HANOVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 24
VALID 310440Z - 310540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S CHO TO
50 SSW DCA TO 25 WSW NHK.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC033-085-310540-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE HANOVER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 24
VALID 310320Z - 310440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ENE LYH
TO 45 SW DCA TO 15 WSW NHK.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
VAC033-075-085-099-109-177-610-630-310440-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE GOOCHLAND HANOVER
KING GEORGE LOUISA SPOTSYLVANIA
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 24
VALID 310245Z - 310340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE LYH TO
30 SW DCA TO 30 ESE BWI.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 108.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
MDC009-017-033-037-310340-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CALVERT CHARLES PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS
$$
VAC033-065-075-085-099-109-137-177-179-610-630-310340-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAROLINE FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND
HANOVER KING GEORGE LOUISA
ORANGE SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG
$$
ANZ533-534-537-539-540-541-542-310340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD
EASTERN BAY
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 24
VALID 310135Z - 310240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-310240-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-013-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-310240-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CHARLES HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
VAC003-013-033-047-059-061-065-075-085-099-107-109-113-137-153-
177-179-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-310240-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON CAROLINE
CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND HANOVER
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN LOUISA
MADISON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK
$$
ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-539-540-541-542-310240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD
EASTERN BAY
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 24
VALID 310030Z - 310140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..01/31/13
ATTN...WFO...LWX...AKQ...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 24
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
DCC001-310140-
DC
. DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA
$$
MDC003-005-009-013-017-025-027-031-033-037-510-310140-
MD
. MARYLAND COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANNE ARUNDEL BALTIMORE CALVERT
CARROLL CHARLES HARFORD
HOWARD MONTGOMERY PRINCE GEORGES
ST. MARYS
MARYLAND INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
BALTIMORE CITY
$$
VAC003-013-033-047-059-061-065-075-085-099-107-109-113-137-153-
177-179-510-540-600-610-630-683-685-310140-
VA
. VIRGINIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALBEMARLE ARLINGTON CAROLINE
CULPEPER FAIRFAX FAUQUIER
FLUVANNA GOOCHLAND HANOVER
KING GEORGE LOUDOUN LOUISA
MADISON ORANGE PRINCE WILLIAM
SPOTSYLVANIA STAFFORD
VIRGINIA INDEPENDENT CITIES INCLUDED ARE
ALEXANDRIA CHARLOTTESVILLE FAIRFAX
FALLS CHURCH FREDERICKSBURG MANASSAS
MANASSAS PARK
$$
ANZ530-531-532-533-534-535-536-537-539-540-541-542-310140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
CHESAPEAKE BAY NORTH OF POOLES ISLAND MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM POOLES ISLAND TO SANDY POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM SANDY POINT TO NORTH BEACH MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM NORTH BEACH TO DRUM POINT MD
CHESAPEAKE BAY FROM DRUM POINT MD TO SMITH POINT VA
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM KEY BRIDGE TO INDIAN HEAD MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM INDIAN HEAD TO COBB ISLAND MD
TIDAL POTOMAC FROM COBB ISLAND MD TO SMITH POINT VA
CHESTER RIVER TO QUEENSTOWN MD
EASTERN BAY
CHOPTANK RIVER TO CAMBRIDGE MD AND THE LITTLE CHOPTANK RIVER
PATUXENT RIVER TO BROOMES ISLAND MD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.