Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 28
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1140 PM CST SAT FEB 9 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1140 PM
UNTIL 700 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES WEST
NORTHWEST OF SHERMAN TEXAS TO 60 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
BROWNWOOD TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DEVELOPING ALONG AND AHEAD OF A
COLD ADVANCING EASTWARD INTO AND THROUGH WEST CENTRAL AND NORTH
TEXAS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSIFY
OVERNIGHT...AS MID-LEVEL COOLING AND LOW-LEVEL MOISTENING CONTRIBUTE
TO FURTHER DESTABILIZATION. IN THE PRESENCE OF 40-50 KT
SOUTHWESTERLY DEEP LAYER MEAN FLOW AND STRONG SHEAR...AN
INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER COULD EVOLVE...WITH A RISK FOR
STRONG SURFACE GUSTS...IN ADDITION TO LARGE HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24040.
...KERR
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 28 SEVERE TSTM TX 100540Z - 101300Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20WNW GYI/SHERMAN TX/ - 60SSE BWD/BROWNWOOD TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /24SSE ADM - 65NW CWK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24040.
LAT...LON 33819516 30989679 30980033 33819881
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 28 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 28
VALID 101045Z - 101140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 W TPL TO
35 N ACT TO 40 ENE DAL TO 20 ESE DUA.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC099-119-139-147-213-217-223-231-257-277-281-309-349-379-397-
467-101140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CORYELL DELTA ELLIS
FANNIN HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT KAUFMAN
LAMAR LAMPASAS MCLENNAN
NAVARRO RAINS ROCKWALL
VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 28
VALID 100950Z - 101040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 S BWD TO
40 S FTW TO 25 NE DAL TO 10 SSE DUA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 134
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-085-099-119-139-147-193-213-217-223-231-251-257-267-277-
281-309-319-333-349-379-397-411-467-101040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE COLLIN CORYELL
DELTA ELLIS FANNIN
HAMILTON HENDERSON HILL
HOPKINS HUNT JOHNSON
KAUFMAN KIMBLE LAMAR
LAMPASAS MCLENNAN MASON
MILLS NAVARRO RAINS
ROCKWALL SAN SABA VAN ZANDT
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 28
VALID 100745Z - 100840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE SJT TO
25 WNW SEP TO 45 SW ADM.
..GUYER..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...FWD...SJT...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 28
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC035-049-083-085-093-095-097-099-113-119-121-133-139-143-147-
181-193-213-217-221-223-231-237-251-257-267-277-281-307-309-319-
327-333-337-349-363-367-379-397-411-425-435-439-467-497-
100840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOSQUE BROWN COLEMAN
COLLIN COMANCHE CONCHO
COOKE CORYELL DALLAS
DELTA DENTON EASTLAND
ELLIS ERATH FANNIN
GRAYSON HAMILTON HENDERSON
HILL HOOD HOPKINS
HUNT JACK JOHNSON
KAUFMAN KIMBLE LAMAR
LAMPASAS MCCULLOCH MCLENNAN
MASON MENARD MILLS
MONTAGUE NAVARRO PALO PINTO
PARKER RAINS ROCKWALL
SAN SABA SOMERVELL SUTTON
TARRANT VAN ZANDT WISE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (20%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.