Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 33
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
315 PM CST SUN FEB 10 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 315 PM UNTIL
1100 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 60 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 155 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SELMA
ALABAMA TO 35 MILES WEST NORTHWEST OF SELMA ALABAMA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 32...
DISCUSSION...A NUMBER OF SUPERCELLS ARE IN PROGRESS THIS AFTERNOON
OVER SRN MS WITHIN A NARROW WARM SECTOR...BOUNDED BY A LONG-LIVED
QLCS TO THE NORTH AND WEST...AND A WARM FRONT SLOWLY PROGRESSING
ENEWD THROUGH SERN MS INTO SWRN AL. THE WARM SECTOR AIR MASS IS
CHARACTERIZED BY BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS IN THE MID/UPPER 60S AND
STRONG LOW-LEVEL AND DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WHICH WILL SUPPORT AN
INCREASING RISK FOR TORNADIC SUPERCELLS EWD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 33 TORNADO AL MS 102115Z - 110500Z
AXIS..60 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
155SW SEM/SELMA AL/ - 35WNW SEM/SELMA AL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /24W SJI - 65WNW MGM/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 30758983 32548856 32548651 30758781
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 33 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 33
VALID 110250Z - 110340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 SW PIB TO
60 SE MEI TO 25 SSE SEM.
..THOMPSON..02/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC013-025-035-041-099-129-131-110340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BUTLER CLARKE CONECUH
CRENSHAW MONROE WASHINGTON
WILCOX
$$
MSC041-047-059-111-153-110340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 33
VALID 110200Z - 110340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 5 S MEI TO
15 SE SEM.
..SMITH..02/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC005-011-013-023-025-035-041-099-109-129-131-110340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BARBOUR BULLOCK BUTLER
CHOCTAW CLARKE CONECUH
CRENSHAW MONROE PIKE
WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC041-047-059-111-153-110340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GREENE HARRISON JACKSON
PERRY WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 33
VALID 110055Z - 110140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 146
..SMITH..02/11/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-047-091-097-099-129-131-110140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
DALLAS MARENGO MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-110140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 33
VALID 102355Z - 110040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-047-091-097-099-129-131-110040-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
DALLAS MARENGO MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-110040-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 33
VALID 102245Z - 102340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..THOMPSON..02/10/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...BMX...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 33
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-047-091-097-099-129-131-102340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
DALLAS MARENGO MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON WILCOX
$$
MSC039-041-047-059-111-131-153-102340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GEORGE GREENE HARRISON
JACKSON PERRY STONE
WAYNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.