Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 35
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
530 AM EST WED FEB 13 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 530 AM UNTIL 900 AM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 0.5 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF
WAYCROSS GEORGIA TO 55 MILES NORTH OF BRUNSWICK GEORGIA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SCTD SUSTAINED TSTMS EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN ENVIRONMENT
OF DEEP...STRONG...LARGELY UNIDIRECTIONAL WSW FLOW OVER SE GA.
UPLIFT IS BEING FOCUSED ALONG SFC STNRY FRONT ALIGNED PARALLEL TO
DEEP FLOW. GIVEN STRENGTH OF DEEP SHEAR /60 KTS/...RICH MOISTURE /PW
AOA 1.5 INCHES/...AND FRICTIONALLY-ENHANCED LOW-LVL SHEAR CLOSER TO
THE ATLANTIC COAST...THE STORMS MOVING ALONG THE BOUNDARY COULD POSE
A TORNADO THREAT...IN ADDITION TO LOCALLY DMGG WIND...BEFORE MOVING
OFFSHORE.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 0.5 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 35 TORNADO GA CW 131030Z - 131400Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
20SSE AYS/WAYCROSS GA/ - 55N SSI/BRUNSWICK GA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /36SSE AMG - 22SW SAV/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..0.5 INCH. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26040.
LAT...LON 30978337 31948255 31948033 30978116
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 35 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 35
VALID 131250Z - 131340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW AYS
TO 50 SE SAV.
..GUYER..02/13/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 35
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
GAC001-003-005-025-069-127-183-191-229-299-305-131340-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
APPLING ATKINSON BACON
BRANTLEY COFFEE GLYNN
LONG MCINTOSH PIERCE
WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ354-450-131340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (<5%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (<5%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.