Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 36
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CST MON FEB 18 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN ARKANSAS
NORTHWEST LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL 900
PM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTH OF
RUSSELLVILLE ARKANSAS TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF LONGVIEW TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE INCREASING AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. STEEP LAPSE RATES AND COLD TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL PROMOTE A FEW INTENSE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WITH A RISK
OF HAIL. CONVECTION WILL LIKELY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD AND
ORGANIZED INTO A SQUALL LINE THIS EVENING WITH AN INCREASING RISK OF
LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS ACROSS PARTS OF AR/LA.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 36 SEVERE TSTM AR LA OK TX 182020Z - 190300Z
AXIS..75 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
25N RUE/RUSSELLVILLE AR/ - 30SE GGG/LONGVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 65NM E/W /59ENE FSM - 29SE GGG/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 35599175 32069308 32069563 35599443
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 36 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 36
VALID 190300Z - 190300Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE SHV
TO 45 S ELD.
WW 36 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 190300Z.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 173
..DIAL..02/19/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-041-043-095-139-190300-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS DESHA DREW
MONROE UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-085-119-190300-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
SABINE WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-347-403-405-419-190300-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 36
VALID 190135Z - 190240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE GGG TO
10 ENE ELD.
..DIAL..02/19/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-041-043-079-095-139-190240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY DESHA
DREW LINCOLN MONROE
UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-085-119-190240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
SABINE WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-347-403-405-419-190240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA NACOGDOCHES SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 36
VALID 190055Z - 190140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE TYR TO
30 SW PBF.
..DIAL..02/19/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC001-011-013-025-027-041-043-079-095-103-139-190140-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARKANSAS BRADLEY CALHOUN
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DESHA
DREW LINCOLN MONROE
OUACHITA UNION
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-190140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
TXC005-073-203-347-365-401-419-190140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANGELINA CHEROKEE HARRISON
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RUSK
SHELBY
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 36
VALID 182340Z - 190040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N TYR TO
35 NE TXK TO 25 SW LIT TO 15 SSW BVX.
..DIAL..02/18/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-019-025-027-039-053-057-069-073-085-091-099-103-117-
119-139-145-190040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CLARK
CLEVELAND COLUMBIA DALLAS
GRANT HEMPSTEAD JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LONOKE MILLER
NEVADA OUACHITA PRAIRIE
PULASKI UNION WHITE
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-190040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
TXC067-183-203-315-365-401-423-190040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CASS GREGG HARRISON
MARION PANOLA RUSK
SMITH
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 36
VALID 182125Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MOSIER..02/18/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-015-019-025-027-029-033-039-045-047-051-053-057-059-
061-071-073-081-083-087-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-
125-127-131-133-139-143-149-182240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-182240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
OKC079-089-182240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-499-
182240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 36
VALID 182120Z - 182240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/18/13
ATTN...WFO...LZK...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 36
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC011-013-015-019-025-027-029-033-039-045-047-051-053-057-059-
061-071-073-081-083-087-091-097-099-101-103-105-109-113-115-119-
125-127-131-133-139-143-149-182240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRADLEY CALHOUN CARROLL
CLARK CLEVELAND COLUMBIA
CONWAY CRAWFORD DALLAS
FAULKNER FRANKLIN GARLAND
GRANT HEMPSTEAD HOT SPRING
HOWARD JOHNSON LAFAYETTE
LITTLE RIVER LOGAN MADISON
MILLER MONTGOMERY NEVADA
NEWTON OUACHITA PERRY
PIKE POLK POPE
PULASKI SALINE SCOTT
SEBASTIAN SEVIER UNION
WASHINGTON YELL
$$
LAC013-015-017-027-031-081-119-182240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
BIENVILLE BOSSIER CADDO
CLAIBORNE DE SOTO RED RIVER
WEBSTER
$$
OKC079-089-182240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
LE FLORE MCCURTAIN
$$
TXC037-063-067-159-183-203-315-343-365-387-401-423-449-459-499-
182240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BOWIE CAMP CASS
FRANKLIN GREGG HARRISON
MARION MORRIS PANOLA
RED RIVER RUSK SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.