Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 37
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
140 PM CST THU FEB 21 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST LOUISIANA
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 140 PM UNTIL
700 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF LAKE
CHARLES LOUISIANA TO 25 MILES NORTHEAST OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY ALONG AND IN
ADVANCE OF A COLD FRONT AND NORTHWARD-MOVING WARM FRONT. MOISTENING
BOUNDARY LAYER AND SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER SHEAR EXISTS FOR SUPERCELLS
AS WELL AS BOWING SEGMENTS. TORNADO POTENTIAL WILL BE RELATIVELY
HIGHEST FOR STORMS IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND POSSIBLY
WITH MESOVORTICES ASSOCIATED WITH STRONGER BOWING SEGMENTS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...HART
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 37 TORNADO LA TX 211940Z - 220100Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5ESE LCH/LAKE CHARLES LA/ - 25NE IER/NATCHITOCHES LA/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /3SW LCH - 47NNW AEX/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 30109423 31989391 31989169 30109205
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 37 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 37
VALID 212330Z - 220040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BPT
TO 30 SW POE TO 10 N ESF TO 35 SSE MLU.
..PETERS..02/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-039-053-079-097-115-220040-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU EVANGELINE
JEFFERSON DAVIS RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 37
VALID 212230Z - 212340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE BPT
TO 20 WSW POE TO 40 SSW MLU.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 193.
..PETERS..02/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-039-043-053-059-079-097-115-212340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA SALLE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
VERNON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 37
VALID 212130Z - 212240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNE BPT
TO 40 WSW POE TO 35 ENE IER.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 193.
..GRAMS..02/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-039-043-053-059-079-097-115-127-
212240-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA SALLE RAPIDES ST. LANDRY
VERNON WINN
$$
TXC351-212240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
NEWTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 37
VALID 212030Z - 212140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 E LFK TO
25 NW IER.
..GRAMS..02/21/13
ATTN...WFO...LCH...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 37
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC001-003-009-011-019-021-039-043-053-059-069-079-085-097-115-
127-212140-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ACADIA ALLEN AVOYELLES
BEAUREGARD CALCASIEU CALDWELL
EVANGELINE GRANT JEFFERSON DAVIS
LA SALLE NATCHITOCHES RAPIDES
SABINE ST. LANDRY VERNON
WINN
$$
TXC199-241-351-361-403-457-212140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HARDIN JASPER NEWTON
ORANGE SABINE TYLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.