Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL9
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 39
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1035 PM CST SUN FEB 24 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING FROM 1035 PM UNTIL
600 AM CST.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 50 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHEAST OF SAN ANGELO TEXAS TO 80 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MINERAL WELLS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU9).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
DISCUSSION...TSTMS HAVE RECENTLY DEVELOPED NEAR THE INTERSECTION OF
A SWD-MOVING COLD FRONT AND AN EWD-MOVING PACIFIC FRONT OVER THE LOW
ROLLING PLAINS WITH ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT ANTICIPATED SWD
ALONG THE PACIFIC FRONT INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY. A STRONG...SLY LLJ
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT AN INCREASINGLY MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER BENEATH
VERY STEEP MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATES /REFERENCE 00Z MAF SOUNDING/...
CONTRIBUTING TO MUCAPE VALUES APPROACHING 1000 J/KG WITHIN THE WARM
SECTOR. GIVEN THE STRONG FORCING FOR ASCENT AND VERTICAL SHEAR
ATTENDANT TO THE DEEP-LAYER CYCLONE MOVING INTO THE SRN PLAINS...THE
SETUP WILL PROMOTE SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING
WIND GUSTS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW9
WW 39 SEVERE TSTM TX 250435Z - 251200Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
50SSE SJT/SAN ANGELO TX/ - 80NNW MWL/MINERAL WELLS TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /19WNW JCT - 9S SPS/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 30700136 33849981 33849737 30709900
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU9.
Watch 39 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 39
VALID 250935Z - 251040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 SE BWD TO
40 N BWD TO 50 SSW LTS.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 215
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC093-133-143-237-333-363-429-447-503-251040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COMANCHE EASTLAND ERATH
JACK MILLS PALO PINTO
STEPHENS THROCKMORTON YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 39
VALID 250740Z - 250840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW JCT
TO 45 E SJT TO 20 SW ABI TO 55 ENE BGS.
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC049-059-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-237-253-307-319-327-333-
363-411-417-429-441-447-503-250840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BROWN CALLAHAN COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
ERATH FISHER HASKELL
JACK JONES MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
PALO PINTO SAN SABA SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS TAYLOR THROCKMORTON
YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 39
VALID 250645Z - 250740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W JCT TO
35 SSE SJT TO 15 ESE SJT TO 35 NNE SJT TO 40 SW ABI TO 40 E BGS.
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-023-049-059-077-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-237-253-275-
307-319-327-333-353-363-399-411-413-417-429-441-447-451-503-
250740-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COLEMAN
COMANCHE CONCHO EASTLAND
ERATH FISHER HASKELL
JACK JONES KNOX
MCCULLOCH MASON MENARD
MILLS NOLAN PALO PINTO
RUNNELS SAN SABA SCHLEICHER
SHACKELFORD STEPHENS TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 39
VALID 250540Z - 250640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...OUN...SJT...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 39
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC009-023-049-059-077-081-083-093-095-133-143-151-207-235-237-
253-275-307-319-327-333-353-363-399-411-413-417-429-431-441-447-
451-503-250640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARCHER BAYLOR BROWN
CALLAHAN CLAY COKE
COLEMAN COMANCHE CONCHO
EASTLAND ERATH FISHER
HASKELL IRION JACK
JONES KNOX MCCULLOCH
MASON MENARD MILLS
NOLAN PALO PINTO RUNNELS
SAN SABA SCHLEICHER SHACKELFORD
STEPHENS STERLING TAYLOR
THROCKMORTON TOM GREEN YOUNG
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.