Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL0
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 40
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1205 AM CST MON FEB 25 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA
FAR SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY MORNING FROM 1205 AM UNTIL 800 AM CST.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50
STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES SOUTH
SOUTHWEST OF BATON ROUGE LOUISIANA TO 45 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST OF
GULFPORT MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE
THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU0).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 39...
DISCUSSION...ELEVATED TSTMS /INCLUDING SUPERCELLS/ ARE EXPECTED TO
PERSIST OVERNIGHT WITHIN A ZONE OF LOW-LEVEL WAA/ISENTROPIC ASCENT N
OF STATIONARY FRONT...WITH DEEP-LAYER ASCENT POSSIBLY AUGMENTED BY A
WEAK IMPULSE MOVING ALONG THE GULF COAST. LOCAL ENVIRONMENT IS
CHARACTERIZED BY MUCAPE OF AROUND 1000 J/KG AND 50 KT OF EFFECTIVE
BULK SHEAR WHICH WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE ORGANIZED/ROTATING
UPDRAFTS WITH A RISK FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 25035.
...MEAD
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW0
WW 40 SEVERE TSTM LA MS CW 250605Z - 251400Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF LINE..
45SSW BTR/BATON ROUGE LA/ - 45ESE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM N/S /34SSW BTR - 35S SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 400. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 25035.
LAT...LON 30649144 30878837 29438837 29209144
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU0.
Watch 40 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 40
VALID 251235Z - 251340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE HUM TO
30 S PIB.
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC071-075-087-251340-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ORLEANS PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD
$$
MSC045-047-059-109-251340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER
$$
GMZ532-534-251340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 40
VALID 250745Z - 250840Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-250840-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
$$
MSC045-047-059-109-250840-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER
$$
GMZ530-532-534-250840-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 40
VALID 250645Z - 250740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 40
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
LAC005-007-033-037-047-051-057-063-071-075-087-089-091-093-095-
103-105-109-117-121-250740-
LA
. LOUISIANA PARISHES INCLUDED ARE
ASCENSION ASSUMPTION EAST BATON ROUGE
EAST FELICIANA IBERVILLE JEFFERSON
LAFOURCHE LIVINGSTON ORLEANS
PLAQUEMINES ST. BERNARD ST. CHARLES
ST. HELENA ST. JAMES ST. JOHN THE BAPTIST
ST. TAMMANY TANGIPAHOA TERREBONNE
WASHINGTON WEST BATON ROUGE
$$
MSC045-047-059-109-250740-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HANCOCK HARRISON JACKSON
PEARL RIVER
$$
GMZ530-532-534-250740-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN AND LAKE MAUREPAS
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
LAKE BORGNE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.