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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 41
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1225 PM EST MON FEB 25 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTH FLORIDA AND THE EASTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1225 PM UNTIL
800 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 120 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 5 MILES NORTH NORTHEAST OF
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA TO 35 MILES SOUTHWEST OF CROSS CITY FLORIDA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
DISCUSSION...SQLN NOW W OF TALLAHASSEE AND APALACHICOLA MAY INCREASE
AS THE FEATURE...POSSIBLY TIED TO A WEAK IMPULSE IN WSW FLOW
ALOFT...INTERACTS WITH SLOWLY-ADVANCING W-E WARM FRONT DOWNSTREAM
ACROSS N FL. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR BOWING SEGMENTS AND/OR A
TORNADO OR TWO WHERE STRONGER ASSOCIATED UPDRAFTS INTERACT WITH WARM
FRONT. ELEVATED STORMS WITH SVR HAIL MAY OCCUR IN NRN PART OF
LINE...AND AN ADDITIONAL STORM OR TWO MAY FORM AHEAD OF IT AS
MODERATE SFC HEATING BOOSTS SBCAPE TO AROUND 1000 J/KG.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 41 TORNADO FL CW 251725Z - 260100Z
AXIS..120 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
5NNE JAX/JACKSONVILLE FL/ - 35SW CTY/CROSS CITY FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 105NM E/W /15NNW CRG - 31SW CTY/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 30547962 29268151 29268550 30548366
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 41 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 41
VALID 252245Z - 252340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CTY
TO 5 NE JAX.
..SMITH..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-019-031-035-075-083-107-109-252340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CLAY
DUVAL FLAGLER LEVY
MARION PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
$$
AMZ452-454-252340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 41
VALID 252030Z - 252140Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSW AAF
TO 35 ESE VLD.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 221
..LEITMAN..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-041-067-075-083-089-107-109-
121-123-125-252140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER GILCHRIST
LAFAYETTE LEVY MARION
NASSAU PUTNAM ST. JOHNS
SUWANNEE TAYLOR UNION
$$
AMZ452-454-GMZ730-755-765-252140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 41
VALID 251950Z - 252040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-037-041-047-065-067-075-079-
083-089-107-109-121-123-125-129-252040-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN
GILCHRIST HAMILTON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE TAYLOR
UNION WAKULLA
$$
AMZ452-454-GMZ730-755-765-252040-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 41
VALID 251840Z - 251940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..LEITMAN..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TAE...TBW...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 41
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-019-023-029-031-035-037-041-047-065-067-075-079-
083-089-107-109-121-123-125-129-251940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CLAY COLUMBIA DIXIE
DUVAL FLAGLER FRANKLIN
GILCHRIST HAMILTON JEFFERSON
LAFAYETTE LEVY MADISON
MARION NASSAU PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS SUWANNEE TAYLOR
UNION WAKULLA
$$
AMZ452-454-GMZ730-755-765-251940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
APALACHEE BAY OR COASTAL WATERS FROM KEATON BEACH TO OCHLOCKONEE
RIVER FL OUT TO 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM OCHLOCKONEE RIVER TO APALACHICOLA FL OUT TO
20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM SUWANNEE RIVER TO KEATON BEACH OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Low (10%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
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