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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL4
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 44
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
355 PM CST MON FEB 25 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWEST ALABAMA
FAR WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
CENTRAL AND EASTERN MISSISSIPPI
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 355 PM UNTIL
1000 PM CST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 75 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 85 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
MERIDIAN MISSISSIPPI TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GULFPORT
MISSISSIPPI. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU4).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 41...WW 42...WW 43...
DISCUSSION...DIFFUSE WNW-ESE WARM FRONT OVER SRN LA AND THE N CNTRL
GULF EXPECTED TO CONTINUE REFORMING NWD AS MEAN SSWLY FLOW
STRENGTHENS ACROSS REGION DOWNSTREAM FROM PROGRESSIVE N TX UPR LOW.
ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE/WARMING BENEATH
INCREASING UPR DIVERGENCE SUGGESTS LIKELIHOOD THAT EXISTING
SUSTAINED STORMS/SUPERCELLS NOW UPSTREAM FROM WW AREA WILL REMAIN
STRONG AS THEY MOVE/DEVELOP GENERALLY NE THROUGH LATE TNGT. THE
TORNADO THREAT MAY INCREASE LATER TNGT INVOF WARM FRONT OVER SRN
MS...SRN AL...AND THE FL PANHANDLE...DESPITE TIME OF DAY...AS MID
LVL FLOW VEERS AND STRENGTHENS IN RESPONSE TO THE CONTINUED ENE
MOTION OF UPR LOW.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 65 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW4
WW 44 TORNADO AL FL MS CW 252155Z - 260400Z
AXIS..85 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
85NNW MEI/MERIDIAN MS/ - 30SE GPT/GULFPORT MS/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 75NM E/W /40W IGB - 42SSW SJI/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..65 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 22045.
LAT...LON 33458783 30078729 30079013 33459079
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU4.
Watch 44 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 44
VALID 260245Z - 260340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW GPT
TO 25 WSW PIB TO 15 ENE JAN TO 40 NNW JAN TO 10 W GWO.
..MEAD..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-260340-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON
$$
FLC033-113-260340-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC007-015-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-047-051-059-061-067-
069-073-075-079-087-097-099-101-103-105-111-123-129-131-153-155-
159-260340-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA CARROLL CHOCTAW
CLARKE CLAY COVINGTON
FORREST GEORGE GREENE
GRENADA HARRISON HOLMES
JACKSON JASPER JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LOWNDES MONTGOMERY
NESHOBA NEWTON NOXUBEE
OKTIBBEHA PERRY SCOTT
SMITH STONE WAYNE
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
GMZ532-536-555-557-630-631-632-633-634-650-655-260340-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
NORTH MOBILE BAY
SOUTH MOBILE BAY
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 44
VALID 260140Z - 260240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-260240-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON
$$
FLC033-113-260240-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-051-053-
059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-087-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-
123-129-131-133-153-155-159-260240-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE
GREENE GRENADA HANCOCK
HARRISON HOLMES HUMPHREYS
JACKSON JASPER JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER
PERRY SCOTT SMITH
STONE SUNFLOWER WAYNE
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
GMZ532-536-555-557-630-631-632-633-634-650-655-260240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
NORTH MOBILE BAY
SOUTH MOBILE BAY
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 44
VALID 260055Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..MEAD..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-260140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON
$$
FLC033-113-260140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-051-053-
059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-087-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-
123-129-131-133-153-155-159-260140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE
GREENE GRENADA HANCOCK
HARRISON HOLMES HUMPHREYS
JACKSON JASPER JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER
PERRY SCOTT SMITH
STONE SUNFLOWER WAYNE
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
GMZ532-536-555-557-630-631-632-633-634-650-655-260140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
NORTH MOBILE BAY
SOUTH MOBILE BAY
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 44
VALID 260000Z - 260140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SMITH..02/25/13
ATTN...WFO...MOB...JAN...LIX...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 44
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ALC003-023-025-035-053-097-099-129-260140-
AL
. ALABAMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BALDWIN CHOCTAW CLARKE
CONECUH ESCAMBIA MOBILE
MONROE WASHINGTON
$$
FLC033-113-260140-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ESCAMBIA SANTA ROSA
$$
MSC007-011-015-019-023-025-031-035-039-041-043-045-047-051-053-
059-061-067-069-073-075-079-083-087-097-099-101-103-105-109-111-
123-129-131-133-153-155-159-260140-
MS
. MISSISSIPPI COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATTALA BOLIVAR CARROLL
CHOCTAW CLARKE CLAY
COVINGTON FORREST GEORGE
GREENE GRENADA HANCOCK
HARRISON HOLMES HUMPHREYS
JACKSON JASPER JONES
KEMPER LAMAR LAUDERDALE
LEAKE LEFLORE LOWNDES
MONTGOMERY NESHOBA NEWTON
NOXUBEE OKTIBBEHA PEARL RIVER
PERRY SCOTT SMITH
STONE SUNFLOWER WAYNE
WEBSTER WINSTON
$$
GMZ532-536-555-557-630-631-632-633-634-650-655-260140-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
CHANDELEUR SOUND
COASTAL WATERS FROM BOOTHVILLE LA TO SOUTHWEST PASS OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM PASCAGOULA MISSISSIPPI TO STAKE ISLAND OUT 20
NM
NORTH MOBILE BAY
SOUTH MOBILE BAY
MISSISSIPPI SOUND
PERDIDO BAY AREA
PENSACOLA BAY AREA
COASTAL WATERS FROM PENSACOLA FL TO PASCAGOULA MS OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM DESTIN TO PENSACOLA FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (60%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (>95%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.