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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 46
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
650 AM EST TUE FEB 26 2013
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
WESTERN...CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FLORIDA
SOUTHEASTERN GEORGIA
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 650 AM UNTIL
300 PM EST.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 80 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 50 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 65 MILES NORTH OF BRUNSWICK
GEORGIA TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SARASOTA FLORIDA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 45...
DISCUSSION...BAND OF STG-SVR TSTMS...INCLUDING A FEW SUPERCELLS...IS
EVIDENT AT WW ISSUANCE TIME OVER PORTIONS FL PANHANDLE AND NERN
GULF...AND SHOULD ENCOUNTER INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL THETAE
AS IT MOVES INLAND OVER NRN/WRN FL. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY
DEVELOP OVER NRN FL AND SERN GA...INCLUDING WARM-SECTOR ACTIVITY
THAT WOULD POSE TORNADO RISK WHILE INTERACTING WITH
DIFFUSE/NWD-MOVING WARM FRONT OVER REGION. VWP DATA AND FCST
SOUNDINGS SHOW FAVORABLE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 300-500 J/KG 0-1
KM SRH POSSIBLE...BOTH OVER WARM SECTOR AND IN SLICE OF WARM-FRONTAL
ZONE CONTAINING SFC-BASED LIFTED PARCELS.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 70 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
...EDWARDS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 46 TORNADO FL GA CW 261150Z - 262000Z
AXIS..50 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
65N SSI/BRUNSWICK GA/ - 10SW SRQ/SARASOTA FL/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 45NM E/W /18WSW SAV - 9SW SRQ/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 24035.
LAT...LON 32098059 27298184 27298348 32098230
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 46 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 46
VALID 261950Z - 262000Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 SE SRQ TO
20 SW ORL.
WW 46 WILL BE ALLOWED TO EXPIRE AT 262000Z. DESPITE THE PRESENCE OF
MODERATE INSTABILITY AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR...THE LACK OF GREATER
DEEP LAYER ASCENT SHOULD LIMIT ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
LAND. HOWEVER...STORMS MOVING ON SHORE FROM THE GULF COULD POSE A
LOCALIZED THREAT.
..PETERS..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-049-055-061-071-081-093-095-097-105-115-117-127-
262000-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
HARDEE HIGHLANDS INDIAN RIVER
LEE MANATEE OKEECHOBEE
ORANGE OSCEOLA POLK
SARASOTA SEMINOLE VOLUSIA
$$
AMZ550-552-GMZ856-262000-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
02016
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 46
VALID 261815Z - 261940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 WSW SRQ
TO 40 E PIE TO 35 W ORL TO 30 S SGJ TO 40 ENE SSI TO 30 SSW SAV
TO 15 W SAV.
..PETERS..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC009-015-027-035-049-055-061-069-071-081-093-095-097-105-115-
117-127-261940-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BREVARD CHARLOTTE DESOTO
FLAGLER HARDEE HIGHLANDS
INDIAN RIVER LAKE LEE
MANATEE OKEECHOBEE ORANGE
OSCEOLA POLK SARASOTA
SEMINOLE VOLUSIA
$$
GAC029-051-261940-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CHATHAM
$$
AMZ354-454-550-552-GMZ856-261940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
COASTAL WATERS FROM ST. AUGUSTINE TO FLAGLER BEACH FL OUT 20 NM
02016
VOLUSIA-BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO SEBASTIAN INLET 0-20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 46
VALID 261525Z - 261640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NW PIE TO
40 SW OCF TO 30 NNW SSI TO 35 SE VDI TO 35 W SAV.
..PETERS..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-007-017-019-027-031-035-049-053-055-057-069-081-083-089-
095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-127-261640-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BRADFORD CITRUS
CLAY DESOTO DUVAL
FLAGLER HARDEE HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE
MANATEE MARION NASSAU
ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO
PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE
SUMTER VOLUSIA
$$
GAC029-039-051-127-179-183-191-261640-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRYAN CAMDEN CHATHAM
GLYNN LIBERTY LONG
MCINTOSH
$$
AMZ354-450-452-GMZ830-850-853-261640-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 46
VALID 261440Z - 261540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NW PIE TO
15 W SAV.
..PETERS..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-027-031-035-049-053-055-057-069-081-083-
089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127-261540-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY DESOTO
DUVAL FLAGLER HARDEE
HERNANDO HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH
LAKE MANATEE MARION
NASSAU ORANGE OSCEOLA
PASCO PINELLAS POLK
PUTNAM ST. JOHNS SARASOTA
SEMINOLE SUMTER UNION
VOLUSIA
$$
GAC025-029-039-049-051-127-179-183-191-305-261540-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN
CHARLTON CHATHAM GLYNN
LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH
WAYNE
$$
AMZ354-450-452-GMZ830-850-853-261540-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 46
VALID 261325Z - 261440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 NNW PIE
TO 40 NNE CTY TO 25 WNW SAV.
..JEWELL..02/26/13
ATTN...WFO...JAX...TBW...MLB...CHS...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 46
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
FLC001-003-007-017-019-023-027-031-035-041-049-053-055-057-069-
081-083-089-095-097-101-103-105-107-109-115-117-119-125-127-
261440-
FL
. FLORIDA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ALACHUA BAKER BRADFORD
CITRUS CLAY COLUMBIA
DESOTO DUVAL FLAGLER
GILCHRIST HARDEE HERNANDO
HIGHLANDS HILLSBOROUGH LAKE
MANATEE MARION NASSAU
ORANGE OSCEOLA PASCO
PINELLAS POLK PUTNAM
ST. JOHNS SARASOTA SEMINOLE
SUMTER UNION VOLUSIA
$$
GAC025-029-039-049-051-127-179-183-191-229-299-305-261440-
GA
. GEORGIA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRANTLEY BRYAN CAMDEN
CHARLTON CHATHAM GLYNN
LIBERTY LONG MCINTOSH
PIERCE WARE WAYNE
$$
AMZ354-450-452-GMZ830-850-853-261440-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
COASTAL WATERS FROM SAVANNAH GA TO ALTAMAHA SOUND GA OUT 20 NM
...INCLUDING GRAYS REEF NATIONAL MARINE SANCTUARY
COASTAL WATERS FROM ALTAMAHA SOUND TO FERNANDINA BEACH FL OUT 20
NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM FERNANDINA BEACH TO ST. AUGUSTINE FL OUT 20
NM
TAMPA BAY WATERS
COASTAL WATERS FROM TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER FL OUT 20 NM
COASTAL WATERS FROM ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS FL OUT 20 NM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (10%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.