Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL7
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 77
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1150 AM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 1150 AM UNTIL
500 PM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTHEAST OF
HUNTSVILLE TEXAS TO 10 MILES SOUTHWEST OF HOUSTON TEXAS. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE
UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU7).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...
DISCUSSION...A CLUSTER OF INITIALLY ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS IN
CENTRAL TX APPEARS TO BE EVOLVING INTO SURFACE-BASED STORMS AS THE
LOW LEVELS MOISTEN/DESTABILIZE ACROSS SE TX. THIS STORM CLUSTER IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A BAND OF LOW-MID LEVEL ASCENT MOVING EWD IN ADVANCE
OF THE MID LEVEL TROUGH OVER W TX...WHILE A REMNANT OUTFLOW BOUNDARY
LIFTING NWD ACROSS SE TX/SW LA WILL PROVIDE A CORRIDOR FOR THE
STORMS TO TRAVEL EWD. THE COMBINATION OF MODERATE INSTABILITY AND
DEEP LAYER SHEAR WILL SUPPORT BOTH SUPERCELLS AND EMBEDDED
BOWS...WITH DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL THE PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 27030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW7
WW 77 SEVERE TSTM TX CW 271650Z - 272200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40NE UTS/HUNTSVILLE TX/ - 10SW HOU/HOUSTON TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /14W LFK - 25S IAH/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 27030.
LAT...LON 31129363 29549406 29549673 31129633
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU7.
Watch 77 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 77
VALID 272135Z - 272240Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW CLL
TO 35 NNW UTS.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-071-185-199-201-225-241-245-291-339-351-361-373-407-455-
457-471-473-272240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN CHAMBERS GRIMES
HARDIN HARRIS HOUSTON
JASPER JEFFERSON LIBERTY
MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE
POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
$$
GMZ430-272240-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 77
VALID 271800Z - 271940Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...HGX...LCH...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 77
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC015-041-051-071-185-199-201-225-241-245-291-313-339-351-361-
373-407-455-457-471-473-477-271940-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
AUSTIN BRAZOS BURLESON
CHAMBERS GRIMES HARDIN
HARRIS HOUSTON JASPER
JEFFERSON LIBERTY MADISON
MONTGOMERY NEWTON ORANGE
POLK SAN JACINTO TRINITY
TYLER WALKER WALLER
WASHINGTON
$$
GMZ430-271940-
CW
. ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS INCLUDED ARE
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.