Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL8
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 78
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
100 PM CDT FRI MAR 27 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EXTREME SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS
EXTREME SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA
NORTHEAST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 100 PM UNTIL 800
PM CDT.
TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.
THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 70 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF PARIS TEXAS
TO 20 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LUFKIN TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU8).
REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 76...WW 77...
DISCUSSION...THUNDERSTORMS ARE DEVELOPING IN A BROKEN BAND E OF THE
SURFACE COLD FRONT AND IN ASSOCIATION WITH A BELT OF ASCENT
ALOFT...GENERALLY E OF I-45. CLOUDS...A THUNDERSTORM CLUSTER
FARTHER S IN SE TX...AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW HAVE ALL MUDDLED THE
ENVIRONMENT ACROSS NE TX...WITH PROFILES NOT PARTICULARLY FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS AT THE MOMENT. HOWEVER...AS THE MID LEVEL AND
SURFACE CYCLONES MOVE EWD ACROSS N TX...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR SHOULD
GRADUALLY INCREASE OVER NE TX AND THE LOW LEVELS SHOULD DESTABILIZE
WITHIN SOME CLOUD BREAKS. BY LATER THIS AFTERNOON...THERE WILL BE
AN INCREASE IN THE THREAT FOR SUPERCELLS WITH A COUPLE OF
TORNADOES...IN ADDITION TO THE LARGE HAIL/DAMAGING WIND THREAT.
AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
...THOMPSON
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW8
WW 78 TORNADO AR OK TX 271800Z - 280100Z
AXIS..70 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45N PRX/PARIS TX/ - 20WSW LFK/LUFKIN TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 60NM E/W /38SSE MLC - 18W LFK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 450. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.
LAT...LON 34279422 31119387 31119625 34279668
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU8.
Watch 78 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 78
VALID 272350Z - 280040Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNW UTS
TO 5 SW TYR TO PRX TO 35 S MLC.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC023-089-127-280040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC159-387-423-449-499-280040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
FRANKLIN RED RIVER SMITH
TITUS WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 78
VALID 272235Z - 272340Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 N CLL TO
25 N CLL TO 25 WSW PRX TO 30 SSE MLC.
..HURLBUT..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-272340-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC023-089-127-272340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CHOCTAW MCCURTAIN PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC001-005-037-063-067-073-119-159-183-203-213-223-277-315-343-
347-365-379-387-401-403-405-419-423-449-459-467-499-272340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
CAMP CASS CHEROKEE
DELTA FRANKLIN GREGG
HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS
LAMAR MARION MORRIS
NACOGDOCHES PANOLA RAINS
RED RIVER RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 78
VALID 272140Z - 272240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-272240-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-023-089-095-127-272240-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC001-005-037-063-067-073-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-213-223-
231-257-277-315-343-347-365-379-387-397-401-403-405-419-423-449-
459-467-499-272240-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
CAMP CASS CHEROKEE
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 78
VALID 271950Z - 272040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..SPC..03/27/09
ATTN...WFO...SHV...OUN...TSA...FWD...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WT 78
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
ARC061-081-091-133-272040-
AR
. ARKANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
HOWARD LITTLE RIVER MILLER
SEVIER
$$
OKC005-013-023-089-095-127-272040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ATOKA BRYAN CHOCTAW
MCCURTAIN MARSHALL PUSHMATAHA
$$
TXC001-005-037-063-067-073-085-119-147-159-181-183-203-213-223-
231-257-277-315-343-347-365-379-387-397-401-403-405-419-423-449-
459-467-499-272040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDERSON ANGELINA BOWIE
CAMP CASS CHEROKEE
COLLIN DELTA FANNIN
FRANKLIN GRAYSON GREGG
HARRISON HENDERSON HOPKINS
HUNT KAUFMAN LAMAR
MARION MORRIS NACOGDOCHES
PANOLA RAINS RED RIVER
ROCKWALL RUSK SABINE
SAN AUGUSTINE SHELBY SMITH
TITUS UPSHUR VAN ZANDT
WOOD
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Mod (30%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.