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The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL1
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 401
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
520 PM MDT SAT JUN 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
NORTHERN AND WESTERN NEBRASKA
SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA
NORTHEAST WYOMING `
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 520 PM
UNTIL 100 AM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 105
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTHWEST OF
RAPID CITY SOUTH DAKOTA TO 5 MILES EAST OF NORTH PLATTE NEBRASKA.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU1).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 397...WW 398...WW
399...WW 400...
DISCUSSION...SCTD SUPERCELLS/STRONG STORM CLUSTERS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FROM NE WY/BLACK HILLS SSE INTO
NEB...WHERE LOW LVL WARM/MOIST ADVECTION WILL PERSIST BENEATH AREA
OF UPR DIFFLUENCE ON CREST OF UPR RIDGE. A LOW PROBABILITY RISK MAY
EVOLVE FOR A TORNADO OR TWO IN NEBRASKA...DEPENDING UPON STORM
MODE/CHARACTER OF DEVELOPMENT...BUT MAIN RISK IN WW SHOULD BE LARGE
HAIL.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 31025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW1
WW 401 SEVERE TSTM NE SD WY 132320Z - 140700Z
AXIS..105 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45NW RAP/RAPID CITY SD/ - 5E LBF/NORTH PLATTE NE/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 90NM E/W /43NW RAP - 6E LBF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 31025.
LAT...LON 44490156 41119856 41110259 44490583
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU1.
Watch 401 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #6 ON WW 401
VALID 140630Z - 140740Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 ESE SNY
TO 20 ESE CDR TO 40 N TOR.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140740-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-095-113-121-123-140740-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON MELLETTE SHANNON
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC045-140740-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 401
VALID 140540Z - 140640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 E SNY TO
20 SE CDR TO 40 N TOR.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-095-113-121-123-140640-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON MELLETTE SHANNON
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC045-140640-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 401
VALID 140540Z - 140640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140640-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-095-113-121-123-140640-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON MELLETTE SHANNON
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC045-140640-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 401
VALID 140435Z - 140540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 E SNY TO
20 SE CDR TO 40 N TOR.
..GUYER..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-095-113-121-123-140540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON MELLETTE SHANNON
TODD TRIPP
$$
WYC045-140540-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 401
VALID 140400Z - 140540Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GUYER..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140540-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-081-095-103-113-121-123-140540-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON LAWRENCE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-045-140540-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 401
VALID 140125Z - 140240Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GRAMS..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...LBF...UNR...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 401
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
NEC005-009-017-031-041-049-069-075-091-103-113-115-117-149-161-
171-140240-
NE
. NEBRASKA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARTHUR BLAINE BROWN
CHERRY CUSTER DEUEL
GARDEN GRANT HOOKER
KEYA PAHA LOGAN LOUP
MCPHERSON ROCK SHERIDAN
THOMAS
$$
SDC007-033-047-071-081-095-103-113-121-123-140240-
SD
. SOUTH DAKOTA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BENNETT CUSTER FALL RIVER
JACKSON LAWRENCE MELLETTE
PENNINGTON SHANNON TODD
TRIPP
$$
WYC005-011-045-140240-
WY
. WYOMING COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CAMPBELL CROOK WESTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.