Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 403
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1100 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA
EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING FROM 1100 PM
UNTIL 600 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 1.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 55
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 15 MILES NORTH
NORTHWEST OF BARTLESVILLE OKLAHOMA TO 30 MILES SOUTHWEST OF DE
QUEEN ARKANSAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 398...WW 399...WW
401...WW 402...
DISCUSSION...TSTMS EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE/INTENSITY ACROSS
ERN OK...IN RESPONSE TO BOTH /1/ SATURATION FROM ALOFT ABOVE EML
CAP...AND /2/ WAA ALONG W-E 850 MB WARM FRONT OVER NRN OK. QUALITY
OF MOISTURE AND STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT SUGGEST POTENTIAL FOR WET
MICROBURSTS. IF TRUE SFC-BASED STORMS ARE ABLE TO
DEVELOP...CONTINGENT ON PRESENCE OF LOW LVL ASCENT ALONG OUTFLOW
FROM EXISTING STORMS...POTENTIAL WOULD ALSO EXIST FOR LARGE HAIL AND
PERHAPS A TORNADO.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 1.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 26025.
...CORFIDI
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 403 SEVERE TSTM OK 140400Z - 141100Z
AXIS..55 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
15NNW BVO/BARTLESVILLE OK/ - 30SW DEQ/DE QUEEN AR/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 50NM E/W /46WSW OSW - 38WNW TXK/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..1.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 26025.
LAT...LON 36979512 33749380 33749573 36979712
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 403 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 403
VALID 140845Z - 140940Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW FYV TO
30 N CQB.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-035-041-097-105-113-115-117-131-143-147-140940-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CRAIG DELAWARE
MAYES NOWATA OSAGE
OTTAWA PAWNEE ROGERS
TULSA WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 403
VALID 140630Z - 140740Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-079-089-091-097-101-105-107-
111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-147-140740-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 403
VALID 140540Z - 140640Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..BROYLES..06/14/09
ATTN...WFO...TSA...SHV...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 403
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC001-021-023-035-037-041-061-077-079-089-091-097-101-105-107-
111-113-115-117-121-127-131-135-143-145-147-140640-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ADAIR CHEROKEE CHOCTAW
CRAIG CREEK DELAWARE
HASKELL LATIMER LE FLORE
MCCURTAIN MCINTOSH MAYES
MUSKOGEE NOWATA OKFUSKEE
OKMULGEE OSAGE OTTAWA
PAWNEE PITTSBURG PUSHMATAHA
ROGERS SEQUOYAH TULSA
WAGONER WASHINGTON
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.
weather.gov 
