Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL5
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 635
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1250 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST COLORADO
NORTHEAST NEW MEXICO
FAR WESTERN OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
WESTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 1250 PM UNTIL
800 PM MDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH OF LA
JUNTA COLORADO TO 20 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF TUCUMCARI NEW
MEXICO. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED
WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...
DISCUSSION...SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OUT OF THE CENTRAL ROCKIES WILL
CONTINUE TO SUPPORT SSEWD MOVING TSTMS ACROSS WW THROUGH THE
EVENING. AS AIRMASS DESTABILIZES AND CAP WEAKENS OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT SHOULD SPREAD SEWD WITH TIME.
SHEAR WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS...WITH SPLITTING STORMS
LIKELY WITH STRAIGHT-LINE HODOGRAPHS. AN ISOLATED/BRIEF TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE... HOWEVER LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS SHOULD BE
PRIMARY SEVERE THREATS INTO THE EARLY EVENING.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 30015.
...EVANS
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW5
WW 635 SEVERE TSTM CO NM OK TX 291850Z - 300200Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40N LHX/LA JUNTA CO/ - 20SSE TCC/TUCUMCARI NM/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /46WNW LAA - 17SSE TCC/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 30015.
LAT...LON 38610204 34900205 34900487 38610500
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU5.
Watch 635 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 635
VALID 292335Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715.
..GOSS..07/29/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-300040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
TELLER
$$
NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-300040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-300040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-359-300040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
OLDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 635
VALID 292045Z - 292140Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..07/29/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-292140-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
TELLER
$$
NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-292140-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-292140-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-359-292140-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
OLDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 635
VALID 291935Z - 292040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..JEWELL..07/29/09
ATTN...WFO...PUB...ABQ...AMA...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 635
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
COC009-011-025-027-041-043-055-061-071-089-099-101-119-292040-
CO
. COLORADO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BACA BENT CROWLEY
CUSTER EL PASO FREMONT
HUERFANO KIOWA LAS ANIMAS
OTERO PROWERS PUEBLO
TELLER
$$
NMC007-019-021-033-037-047-059-292040-
NM
. NEW MEXICO COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
COLFAX GUADALUPE HARDING
MORA QUAY SAN MIGUEL
UNION
$$
OKC025-292040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
CIMARRON
$$
TXC111-117-205-359-292040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
DALLAM DEAF SMITH HARTLEY
OLDHAM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (90%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.