Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
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Watch Status Reports.
SEL6
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 636
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
535 PM CDT WED JUL 29 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
PARTS OF SOUTHWEST KANSAS
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
MUCH OF TEXAS PANHANDLE
EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY MORNING FROM 535
PM UNTIL 100 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2.5 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 80
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 65
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 45 MILES NORTH OF
LIBERAL KANSAS TO 25 MILES SOUTH SOUTHEAST OF PLAINVIEW TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU6).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 634...WW 635...
DISCUSSION...SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN NUMBER
ACROSS NERN NM/SERN CO. AS STORMS DEVELOP SEWD INTO AN INCREASINGLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS THE THREAT OF LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS
WILL CONTINUE AND POSSIBLY BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2.5 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 70
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 29025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW6
WW 636 SEVERE TSTM KS OK TX 292235Z - 300600Z
AXIS..65 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
45N LBL/LIBERAL KS/ - 25SSE PVW/PLAINVIEW TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 55NM E/W /18SW GCK - 20ENE LBB/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2.5 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..70 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 550. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 29025.
LAT...LON 37689977 33830041 33830269 37680216
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU6.
Watch 636 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #5 ON WW 636
VALID 300525Z - 300600Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WNW LBB
TO 10 N CDS.
A NEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH WILL LIKELY BE ISSUED BY 06Z FOR
AREAS SOUTH/EAST OF WW 636...AND SOUTH OF WW 637.
..KERR..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC045-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-279-303-
305-345-433-445-501-300600-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FLOYD GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #4 ON WW 636
VALID 300455Z - 300540Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 SE CVS TO
25 NE CDS.
..GOSS..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC045-075-079-101-107-125-153-169-189-191-219-263-269-279-303-
305-345-433-445-501-300540-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BRISCOE CHILDRESS COCHRAN
COTTLE CROSBY DICKENS
FLOYD GARZA HALE
HALL HOCKLEY KENT
KING LAMB LUBBOCK
LYNN MOTLEY STONEWALL
TERRY YOAKUM
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #3 ON WW 636
VALID 300325Z - 300440Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NE DHT TO
20 E EHA TO 50 N GAG.
..GOSS..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
OKC007-139-300440-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-079-087-101-107-125-129-153-179-189-
191-195-211-219-233-269-279-295-303-341-345-357-369-375-381-393-
421-437-483-300440-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COCHRAN COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE
CROSBY DICKENS DONLEY
FLOYD GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL
HOCKLEY HUTCHINSON KING
LAMB LIPSCOMB LUBBOCK
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 636
VALID 300230Z - 300340Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
..GOSS..07/30/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-129-175-187-189-300340-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC007-139-300340-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-087-101-129-153-179-189-191-195-211-
233-279-295-341-345-357-369-375-381-393-421-437-483-300340-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY
FLOYD GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 636
VALID 292335Z - 300040Z
THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES ACROSS THE ENTIRE WATCH AREA.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION SEE MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1715.
..GOSS..07/29/09
ATTN...WFO...DDC...AMA...LUB...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 636
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
KSC067-129-175-187-189-300040-
KS
. KANSAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
GRANT MORTON SEWARD
STANTON STEVENS
$$
OKC007-139-300040-
OK
. OKLAHOMA COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
BEAVER TEXAS
$$
TXC011-017-045-065-069-075-087-101-129-153-179-189-191-195-211-
233-279-295-341-345-357-369-375-381-393-421-437-483-300040-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ARMSTRONG BAILEY BRISCOE
CARSON CASTRO CHILDRESS
COLLINGSWORTH COTTLE DONLEY
FLOYD GRAY HALE
HALL HANSFORD HEMPHILL
HUTCHINSON LAMB LIPSCOMB
MOORE MOTLEY OCHILTREE
PARMER POTTER RANDALL
ROBERTS SHERMAN SWISHER
WHEELER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (20%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (5%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (40%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (50%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (80%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.