Note:
The expiration time in the watch graphic is amended if the watch is
replaced, cancelled or extended.
Note: Click for
Watch Status Reports.
SEL3
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 643
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1110 PM CDT THU JUL 30 2009
THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
MUCH OF SOUTHWEST TEXAS
EFFECTIVE THIS THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FROM 1110 PM
UNTIL 400 AM CDT.
HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS TO 70
MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.
THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 80
STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES EAST
NORTHEAST OF HOBBS NEW MEXICO TO 70 MILES SOUTH OF MARFA TEXAS.
FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).
REMEMBER...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN AND OCCASIONALLY
DO PRODUCE TORNADOES.
OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 641...
DISCUSSION...WELL DEVELOP CLUSTER OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS AND
ASSOCIATED COLD POOL HAS MOVED INTO SERN NM. WITH A MDTLY UNSTABLE
AND FAVORABLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE WATCH AREA...STORMS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL FOR
SEVERAL MORE HOURS.
AVIATION...A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT
TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND GUSTS TO 60
KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM
MOTION VECTOR 33025.
...HALES
Note:
The Aviation Watch (SAW) product is an approximation to the watch area.
The actual watch is depicted by the shaded areas.
SAW3
WW 643 SEVERE TSTM TX 310410Z - 310900Z
AXIS..80 STATUTE MILES EAST AND WEST OF LINE..
40ENE HOB/HOBBS NM/ - 70S MRF/MARFA TX/
..AVIATION COORDS.. 70NM E/W /57NNW MAF - 57S MRF/
HAIL SURFACE AND ALOFT..2 INCHES. WIND GUSTS..60 KNOTS.
MAX TOPS TO 500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 33025.
LAT...LON 32880119 29350269 29350534 32880395
THIS IS AN APPROXIMATION TO THE WATCH AREA. FOR A
COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE WOUS64 KWNS
FOR WOU3.
Watch 643 Status Report Messages:
STATUS REPORT #2 ON WW 643
VALID 310730Z - 310840Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 S MRF TO
15 SE HOB TO 25 NNE BGS.
..DIAL..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-043-103-109-135-173-227-317-329-371-383-443-461-475-495-
310840-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BREWSTER CRANE
CULBERSON ECTOR GLASSCOCK
HOWARD MARTIN MIDLAND
PECOS REAGAN TERRELL
UPTON WARD WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
STATUS REPORT #1 ON WW 643
VALID 310540Z - 310640Z
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SE GDP TO
15 SE HOB TO 25 NNE BGS.
..DIAL..07/31/09
ATTN...WFO...MAF...
&&
STATUS REPORT FOR WS 643
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING AREAS
TXC003-043-103-109-135-173-227-243-301-317-329-371-377-383-389-
443-461-475-495-310640-
TX
. TEXAS COUNTIES INCLUDED ARE
ANDREWS BREWSTER CRANE
CULBERSON ECTOR GLASSCOCK
HOWARD JEFF DAVIS LOVING
MARTIN MIDLAND PECOS
PRESIDIO REAGAN REEVES
TERRELL UPTON WARD
WINKLER
$$
THE WATCH STATUS MESSAGE IS FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY. PLEASE
REFER TO WATCH COUNTY NOTIFICATION STATEMENTS FOR OFFICIAL
INFORMATION ON COUNTIES...INDEPENDENT CITIES AND MARINE ZONES
CLEARED FROM SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AND TORNADO WATCHES.
$$
Note:
Click for Complete Product Text.
Tornadoes
Probability of 2 or more tornadoes
|
Low (10%)
|
Probability of 1 or more strong (F2-F5) tornadoes
|
Low (<2%)
|
Wind
Probability of 10 or more severe wind events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability of 1 or more wind events > 65 knots
|
Mod (30%)
|
Hail
Probability of 10 or more severe hail events
|
Mod (30%)
|
Probability
of 1 or
more hailstones > 2 inches
|
Low (20%)
|
Combined Severe Hail/Wind
Probability of 6 or more combined severe hail/wind events
|
High (70%)
|
For each watch, probabilities for particular events inside the watch
(listed above in each table) are determined by the issuing forecaster.
The "Low" category contains probability values ranging from less than 2%
to 20% (F2-F5 tornadoes), less than 5% to 20% (all other probabilities),
"Moderate" from 30% to 60%, and "High" from 70% to greater than 95%.
High values are bolded and lighter in color to provide awareness of
an increased threat for a particular event.