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SPC Publications

Complete List Of Publications
A complete list of papers lead-authored or co-authored by current SPC staff members is available as well, in addition to the papers provided below that were written at SPC.
[Formal Publications| Conference Papers| Informal Publications]
Formal Publications

These are papers, with SPC-affiliated lead authors, published in formal, refereed journals (i.e., AMS, EJSSM, NWA).

Banacos, P.C.*, and D.M. Schultz, 2004: The Use of Moisture Flux Convergence in Forecasting Convective Initiation: Historical and Operational Perspectives. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4352K PDF]

Cohen, A.E., M.L. VanDenHeuvel, G.W. Carbin, and D. Bernhardt, 2014: The 5 June 2012 Central Montana Tornado Event. Published in NWA J. Operational Meteor. [2862K PDF]

Cohen, A.E., and P. Santos, 2012: South Florida Flash Flooding Events. Published in NWA Electronic J. Operational Meteor. [2008K PDF]

Cook, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2008: The Relation of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [2915K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., S.J. Weiss, J.S. Kain, S.J. Corfidi, R.M. Rabin, and J.L. Levit*, 2010: Revisiting the 3-4 April 1974 Super Outbreak of Tornadoes. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [47324K PDF] (PowerPoint presentation; supplemental slideshow)

Corfidi, S.F., S.J. Corfidi, and D.M. Schultz, 2008: Elevated Convection and Castellanus: Ambiguities, Significance, and Questions. Published in Weather and Forecasting [5566K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., S.J. Corfidi, D.A. Imy*, and A.L. Logan, 2006: A Preliminary Study of Severe Wind-producing MCSs in Environments of Limited Moisture. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [4802K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., 2003: Cold Pools and MCS Propagation: Forecasting the Motion of Downwind-Developing MCSs. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [3156K PDF] (supplemental slide show, part 1) (supplemental slide show, part 2)

Corfidi, S.F., 1999: The Birth and Early Years of the Storm Prediction Center. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [477K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., 1996: Haze Over The Central And Eastern United States. Published in National Weather Digest; Updated June 2013. [186K HTML]

Corfidi, S.F., J.H. Merritt and J.M. Fritsch, 1996: Predicting the Movement of Mesoscale Convective Complexes. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [130K PDF]

Craven, J.P.*, R.E. Jewell, and H.E. Brooks, 2002: Comparison between Observed Convective Cloud-Base Heights and Lifting Condensation Level for Two Different Lifted Parcels. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [286K PDF]

Dial, G.L., J.P. Racy*, and R.L. Thompson, 2010: Short-term Convective Mode Evolution along Synoptic Boundaries. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2772K PDF]

Doswell, C. A. III*, 1980: Synoptic-scale Environments Asssociated with High Plains Severe Thunderstorms. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [1392K PDF]

Doswell, C. A. III*, 1977: Obtaining Meteorologically Significant Surface Divergence Fields through the Filtering Property of Objective Analysis. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [685K PDF]

Edwards, R., J.G. LaDue, J.T. Ferree, K. Scharfenberg, C. Maier, and W.L. Coulbourne, 2013: Tornado Intensity Estimation: Past, Present and Future. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [1507K PDF]

Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson, and B.T. Smith, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part III: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [270K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2012: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: A Review of Knowledge in Research and Prediction. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [2193K PDF]

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2009: Comments on "The North Dakota Tornadic Supercells of 18 July 2004: Issues Concerning High LCL Heights and Evapotranspiration". Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1730K PDF]

Edwards, R., and S.J. Hodanish, 2006: Photographic Documentation and Environmental Analysis of an Intense, Anticyclonic Supercell on the Colorado Plains. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [1671K PDF]

Edwards, R., S.F. Corfidi, R.L. Thompson, J.S. Evans*, J.P. Craven*, J.P. Racy*, D.W. McCarthy* and M.D. Vescio*, 2002: Storm Prediction Center Forecasting Issues Related to the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1947K PDF]

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 1998: Nationwide Comparisons of Hail Size with WSR-88D Vertically Integrated Liquid Water (VIL) and Derived Thermodynamic Sounding Data. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [234K HTML]

Evans, J.S.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 2000: Examination of Derecho Environments with Proximity Soundings. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [270K HTML]

Galway, J.G.*, 1992: Early Severe Thunderstorm Forecasting and Research by the United States Weather Bureau. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2327K PDF]

Galway, J.G.*, 1989: The Evolution of Severe Thunderstorm Criteria within the Weather Service. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [852K PDF]

Galway, J.G.*, 1985: J.P. Finley: The First Severe Storms Forecaster--Part 1 and Part 2. Published in Bulletin of the AMS. [734K and 494K PDFs]

Galway, J.G.*, 1977: Some Climatological Aspects of Tornado Outbreaks. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [535K PDF]

Galway, J.G.*, 1975: Relationship of Tornado Deaths to Severe Weather Watch Areas. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [367K PDF]

Garner, J.M.*, 2013: A Study of Synoptic-Scale Tornado Regimes. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1208K PDF]

Garner, J.M.*, 2012: Environments of Significant Tornadoes Occurring within the Warm Sector versus Those Occurring along Surface Baroclinic Boundaries. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1245K PDF]

Grams, J.S., R.L. Thompson, D.V. Snively, J.A. Prentice, G.M. Hodges, and L.J. Reames, 2012: A Climatology and Comparison of Parameters for Significant Tornado Events in the United States. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [1120K PDF]

Hurlbut, M.M., and A.E. Cohen, 2014: Environments of Northeast U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Events from 1999 to 2009. Published in Wea. Forecasting. [4363K PDF]

Jewell, R., and J. Brimelow, 2009: Evaluation of Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings from the United States. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2588K PDF]

Johns, R.H.*, 1993: Meteorological Conditions Associated with Bow Echo Development in Convective Storms. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [565K PDF]

Johns, R.H.*, and W.D. Hirt, 1993: Derechoes: Widespread Convectively Induced Windstorms. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1416K PDF]

Johns, R.H.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1992: Severe Local Storms Forecasting. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2366K PDF]

Johns, R.H.*, 1984: A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest-Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part II: Meteorological Parameters and Synoptic Patterns. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [1344K PDF]

Johns, R.H.*, 1982: A Synoptic Climatology of Northwest-Flow Severe Weather Outbreaks. Part I: Nature and Significance. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [765K PDF]

Jungbluth, K.A.*, 1993: Barron County, Wisconsin, Multiple Tornadoes and Hailstorms of 11 September 1990. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1181K PDF]

Kain, J.S.*, M.E. Baldwin, P.R. Janish, S.J. Weiss, M.P. Kay, G.W. Carbin, 2003: Subjective Verification of Numerical Models as a Component of a Broader Interaction between Research and Operations. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1180K PDF]

Kain, J.S.*, S. M. Goss, and M. E. Baldwin, 2000: The Melting Effect as a Factor in Precipitation-type Forecasting Published in Weather and Forecasting. [985K PDF]

Kelly, D.L.*, J.T. Schaefer*, R.P. McNulty*, C.A. Doswell III*, and R.F. Abbey Jr., 1978: An Augmented Tornado Climatology. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [790K PDF]

Kerr, B.W., and G.L. Darkow, 1996: Storm-relative Winds and Helicity in the Tornadic Thunderstorm Environment. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [513K PDF]

Lemon, L.R.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1979: Severe Thunderstorm Evolution and Mesocyclone Structure as Related to Tornadogenesis. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [1473K PDF]

Magor, B.W.*, 1958: A Meso-low Associated with a Severe Storm. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [1152K PDF]

McCann, D.W.*, 1995: Three-Dimensional Computations of Equivalent Potential Vorticity. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [469K PDF]

McCann, D.W.*, 1983: The Enhanced-V: A Satellite Observable Severe Storm Signature. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [821K PDF]

Mead, C.M., and R.L. Thompson, 2011: Environmental Characteristics Associated with Nocturnal Significant-Tornado Events in the Central and Southern Great Plains. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1220K PDF]

Ostby, F.P.*, 1999: Improved Accuracy in Severe Storm Forecasting by the Severe Local Storms Unit during the Last 25 Years: Then versus Now. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [484K PDF]

Ostby, F.P.*, 1992: Operations of the National Severe Storms Forecast Center. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1515K PDF]

Rogash, J.A.*, and J.P. Racy*, 2002: Some Meteorological Characteristics of Significant Tornado Events Occurring in Proximity to Flash Flooding. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [54K PDF]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and C.A. Doswell III*, 1979: On the Interpolation of a Vector Field. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [102K PDF]

Smith, B.T., T.E. Castellanos, A.C. Winters, C.M. Mead, A.R. Dean, and R.L. Thompson, 2013: Measured Severe Convective Wind Climatology and Associated Convective Modes of Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States, 2003-09. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2509K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, C. Broyles, and H.E. Brooks, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part I: Storm Classification and Climatology. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [9430K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2013: Spatial Distributions of Tornadic Near-Storm Environments by Convective Mode. Published in Electronic J. Severe Storms Meteor. [1517K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2012: Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Part II: Supercell and QLCS Tornado Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2603K PDF]

Thompson, R.L, C.M. Mead and R. Edwards, 2007: Effective Storm-Relative Helicity and Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [1930K PDF]

Thompson, R.L, R. Edwards, J.A. Hart, K.L. Elmore and P.M. Markowski, 2003: Close Proximity Soundings within Supercell Environments Obtained from the Rapid Update Cycle. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [2566K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., and R. Edwards, 2000: An Overview of Environmental Conditions and Forecast Implications of the 3 May 1999 Tornado Outbreak. Published in Weather and Forecasting [1786K HTML]

Thompson, R.L., 1998: Eta Model Storm-relative Winds Associated with Tornadic and Nontornadic Supercells. Published in Weather and Forecasting [395K HTML]

Vescio, M.D.*, and R.L. Thompson, 2001: Subjective Tornado Probability Forecasts in Severe Weather Watches. Published in Weather and Forecasting. [76K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., 1992: Some Aspects of Forecasting Severe Thunderstorms during Cool-Season Return-Flow Episodes. Published in Journal of Applied Meteorology. [1490K PDF]

Williams, R.J.*, 1976: Surface Parameters Associated with Tornadoes. Published in Monthly Weather Review. [339K PDF]

Conference Papers

These are informal research papers with SPC-affiliated lead authors, prepared for conferences of the American Meteorological Society, National Weather Association, or other professional organizations. Formal versions of some of these may appear as refereed papers in AMS, NWA, EJSSM or other journals. Please check above.

Banacos, P.C.*, and D.M. Schultz, 2004: Moisture Flux Convergence: Its History and Application in Convective Initiation Forecasting. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2710K PDF]

Banacos, P.C.*, 2003: Short-range prediction of banded precipitation associated with deformation and frontogenesis forcing. Preprints, AMS 10th Conference on Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [642K PDF]

Banacos, P.C.*, and H.B. Bluestein, 2002: Hodograph Variability within Analytically Modeled Baroclinic Waves. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [357K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and J.S. Grams, 2009: Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Calibrated Thunderstorm Probability Forecasts: 2007-2008 Verification and Recent Enhancements. Preprints, 4th Conf. Meteorological Applications of Lightning Data, Phoenix, AZ. [293K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss, J.J. Levit*, and R.S. Schneider, 2008: The Evolution of Multi-Scale Ensemble Guidance in the Prediction of Convective and Severe Convective Storms at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [4524K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and R.H. Grumm, 2006: Application of Climate Statistics and Ensemble Forecasts in the Prediction of Severe Weather Episodes. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [358K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and M.S. Wandishin, 2006: Post Processed Short Range Ensemble Forecasts of Severe Convective Storms. Preprints, 18th Conf. Probability and Statistics in the Atmos. Sciences, Atlanta GA. [664K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, M.S. Wandishin, R.E. Jewell, and S.J. Weiss, 2005: A Physically Based Parameter for Lightning Prediction and its Calibration in Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, Conf. on Meteor. Applications of Lightning Data, San Diego CA. [2339K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, S.J. Weiss, J.J. Levit*, M.S. Wandishin, J.S. Kain, and D.J. Stensrud, 2004: Evaluation of Short-range Ensemble Forecasts during the 2003 SPC/NSSL Spring Program. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [405K PDF]

Bright, D.R.*, and P.A. Nutter, 2004: On the Challenges of Identifying the "Best" Ensemble Member in Operational Forecasting. Preprints, 16th Conf. on Numerical Weather Prediction, Seattle, WA. [379K PDF]

Broyles, J.C., and K.C. Crosbie*, 2004: Evidence of Smaller Tornado Alleys Across the United States Based on a Long Track F3-F5 Tornado Climatology Study from 1880-2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2940K PDF]

Carbin, G.W., J.S. Kain, M.S. Bukovsky, and M.E. Baldwin, 2003: Mesoscale Processes Associated with the Rapid Erosion of the "Cap". Preprints, 10th Conf. Mesoscale Processes, Portland OR. [854K PDF]

Carbin, G.W., M.P. Kay, and J.A. Hart, 2002: The Map Analog Retrieval System. Preprints, 27th National Weather Assoc. Annual Meeting, Fort Worth, TX.

Cook, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: The Relation of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) to Winter Tornado Outbreaks. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [171K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., M.C. Coniglio, and J.S. Kain, 2010: Environment and Early Evolution of the 8 May 2009 "Super Derecho". Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF] ( download presentation) or view (supplemental slide show)

Corfidi, S.F., and S.J. Corfidi, 2006: Toward a Better Understanding of Elevated Convection. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [450K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., J.J. Levit*, and S.J. Weiss, 2004: The Super Outbreak: Outbreak of the Century. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1869K PDF] (supplemental slide show)

Corfidi, S.F., D.A. Imy*, S.J. Taylor, and A. Logan, 2004: A Preliminary Investigation of Derecho-producing MCSs in Environments of Very Low Dew Points. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [501K PDF]

Corfidi, S.F., 1998: Forecasting MCS Mode and Motion. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN. [39K HTML]

Corfidi, S.F., 1998 (updated 2007): Some Thoughts on the Role Mesoscale Features Played in the 27 May 1997 Central Texas (Jarrell) Tornado Outbreak Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [82K HTML]

Craven, J.P.*, H.E. Brooks and J.A. Hart, 2002: Baseline Climatology of Sounding Derived Parameters Associated with Deep, Moist Convection. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [131K PDF]

Darrow, M.A., and M.L. Rehbein*, 1996: A Preliminary Investigation of West Coast Convection during the Cool Season Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [70K HTML]

Davis, J.M.*, A.R. Dean, and J.L. Guyer, 2010: A Detailed Analysis of SPC "High Risk" Outlooks, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [138K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2012: An Examination of Tornado Environments, Events, and Impacts from 2003-2012.. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]

Dean, A.R., 2010: An Analysis of Clustered Tornado Events. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [928K PDF]

Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, R.L. Thompson, J.A. Hart, and P.D. Bothwell, 2009: The Conditional Risk of Severe Convection Estimated from NWS Storm Prediction Center Mesoscale Objective Analyses: Potential Uses in Support of Forecast Operations and Verification. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and R.S. Schneider, 2008: Forecast Challenges at the NWS Storm Prediction Center Relating to the Frequency of Favorable Severe Storm Environments. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [950K PDF]

Dean, A.R., R.S. Schneider, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: Development of a Comprehensive Severe Weather Forecast Verification System at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [191K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and D.A. Imy*, 2006: A Look at the Tornado Report and Watch Climatology for the Continental United States from 1986-2005. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [315K PDF]

Dean, A.R., and J.T. Schaefer*, 2006: PDS Watches: How Dangerous are these "Particularly Dangerous Situations?" Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [123K PDF]

Dial, G.L., and J.P. Racy*, 2004: Forecasting Short Term Convective Mode and Evolution for Severe Storms Initiated along Synoptic Boundaries. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [104K PDF]

Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2012: Nonsupercell Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes: Documentation, Classification and Uncertainties. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1278K PDF]

Edwards, R., J.G. LaDue, J.T. Ferree, K. Scharfenberg, C. Maier, and W.L. Coulbourne, 2010: The Enhanced Fujita Scale: Past, Present and Future. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2010: Tropical Cyclone Tornado Records for the Modernized NWS Era. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [416K PDF]

Edwards, R., A.R. Dean, R.L. Thompson and B.T. Smith, 2010: Objective Environmental Analyses and Convective Modes for United States Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes from 2003-2008. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [369K PDF]

Edwards, R., and H.E. Brooks, 2010: Possible Impacts of the Enhanced Fujita Scale on United States Tornado Data. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [148K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2008: Tropical Cyclone Tornadoes -- A Research and Forecasting Overview. Part 1: Climatologies, Distribution and Forecast concepts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [135K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2006: Supercells of the Serranias del Burro (Mexico). Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [290K PDF]

Edwards, R., and A.E. Pietrycha, 2006: Archetypes for Surface Baroclinic Boundaries Influencing Tropical Cyclone Tornado Occurrence. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [399K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and C.M. Mead, 2004: Assessment of Anticyclonic Supercell Environments Using Close Proximity Soundings from the RUC Model. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [151K PDF]

Edwards, R., and S.J. Hodanish, 2004: Environmental Analysis and Photographic Documentation of an Intense, Left-moving Supercell on the Colorado Plains. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [514K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson, K.C. Crosbie*, J.A. Hart, and C. A. Doswell III, 2004: Proposals for Modernizing the Definitions of Tornado and Severe Thunderstorm Outbreaks. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [187K PDF]

Edwards, R., 2003: Rating Tornado Damage: An Exercise in Subjectivity. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA. [685K PDF]

Edwards, R., and L.R. Lemon*, 2002: Proactive or Reactive? The Severe Storm Threat to Large Event Venues. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [536K PDF]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.A. Hart, 2002: Verification of Supercell Motion Forecasting Techniques. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [125K PDF]

Edwards, R., G.V. Rao, and J.W. Scheck, 2000: Examination of Tornadic Supercells in Tropical Cyclone Earl (1998) Using Conventional an WSR-88D Data Suites. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL [249K HTML]

Edwards, R., and R.L. Thompson, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part II: An Independent Assessment of Supercell Forecast Parameters. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [87K HTML]

Edwards, R., R.L. Thompson and J.G. LaDue, 2000: Initiation of Storm A (3 May 99) along a Possible Horizontal Convective Roll. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [158K HTML]

Edwards, R., 1998: Tornado Production During Exiting Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [103K HTML]

Edwards, R., 1998: Storm Prediction Center Support for Landfalling Tropical Cyclones. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Hurricanes and Tropical Met., Dallas TX. [38K HTML]

Edwards, R. and S.J. Weiss, 1996: Comparisons between Gulf of Mexico Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies and Southern U.S. Severe Thunderstorm Frequency in the Cool Season. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [52K HTML]

Evans, J.S.*, C.M. Mead and S.J. Weiss, 2008: Forecasting the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak atthe SPC: Why Forecast Uncertainty Does Not Necessarily Decrease as You Get Closer to a High Impact Weather Event. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [419K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of Cool Season Significant Tornado Events and Buoy Data in the Western Gulf of Mexico. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [264K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and C.A. Doswell III, 2002: Investigating Derecho and Supercell Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [190K PDF]

Evans, J.S.*, and R.H. Johns*, 1996: Significant Tornadoes in the Big Horn Mountains of Wyoming. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [107K HTML]

Evenson, E.C.* and J.R. Mecikalski, 1996: Preliminary Evaluation of a PCGRIDDS Macro in Forecasting Dry Microbursts over the Western United States. Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA. [48K HTML]

Goss, S.M., R.L. Thompson, and E. Bookbinder, 2006: An Elevated Supercell with Damaging Wind from the Morning of 12 March 2006. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [446 K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and J.A. Hart, 2012: Examination of WSR-88D VWP Data in Proximity to Strong Tornadoes. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [320K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and A.R. Dean, 2010: Tornadoes within Weak CAPE Environments across the Continental United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1260K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and D.R. Bright*, 2008: Utility of Short-range Ensemble Forecast (SREF) Guidance for Forecasting the Development of Severe Convection. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [353K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and J.M. Davies, 2006: Enviroment Characteristics Associated with Tornado Events near Closed Cold Core 500 MB Lows. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [199K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., D.A. Imy*, A. Kis*, and K. Venable, 2006: Cool Season Significant (F2-F5) Tornadoes in the Gulf Coast States. Preprints, 23nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [657K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and R. Ewald, 2004: Record Hail Event - Examination of the Aurora, Nebraska Supercell of 22 June 2003. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [2012K PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and T.J. Shea, 2003: An Assessment of the Variability in Operational Assignment of F-Scale Damage. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]

Guyer, J.L., and M.L. Moritz, 2003: On Issues of Tornado Damage Assessment and F-Scale Assignment in Agricultural Areas. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach CA [PDF]

Hales, J.E.* and M.D. Vescio*, 1996: The March 1994 Tornado Outbreak in the Southeast U.S. from an SPC Perspective Preprints, 18th Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Francisco CA [55K HTML]

Harless, A.R., S.J. Weiss, R.S. Schneider, M. Xue, and F. Kong, 2010: A Report and Feature-based Verification Study of the CAPS 2008 Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecasts for Severe Convective Weather. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [933K PDF]

Jewell, R., 2010: The Sounding Analog Retrieval System (SARS). Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [274K PDF]

Jewell, R.E.D., and J. Brimelow, 2004: Evaluation of an Alberta Hail Growth Model Using Severe Hail Proximity Soundings in the United States. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [1162K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., S. J. Weiss, and C. J. Melick, 2012: The SPC Storm-scale Ensemble of Opportunity: Overview and Results from the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville, TN. [473K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., C.J. Melick, A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss, and J. Correia Jr., 2012: Investigation of an Automated Temporal Disaggregation Technique for Convective Outlooks during the 2012 Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [558K PDF]

Jirak, I.L., S.J. Weiss, C.J. Melick, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, A.J. Clark, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: Evaluation of the Performance and Distribution of Hourly Maximum Fields from Storm-scale Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [519K PDF]

Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: Nocturnal Tornadoes and Low-level Static Stability. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [909K PDF]

Kis, A.K.*, J.M. Straka and K.M. Kanak, 2008: On the Role of Descending Rain Curtains in Tornadogenesis. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [2619K PDF]

Kay, M. P.* and H.E. Brooks, 2000: Verification of Probabilistic Severe Storm Forecasts at the SPC. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [105K HTML]

Kumjian, M. *, J.S. Evans*, and J.L. Guyer, 2006: The Relationship of the Great Plains Low Level Jet to Nocturnal MCS Development. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [289 K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, J.A. Hart, R.S. Schneider, D.R. Bright*, and R.L. Thompson, 2008: Utilizing Short-range Ensemble Point Forecast Soundings for Severe Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [94K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, G.W. Carbin, D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, S.J. Weiss, R.S. Schneider, M.C. Coniglio, M. Xue, K.W. Thomas, M.E. Pyle, and M.L. Weisman, 2008: The NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed 2008 Spring Experiment: Technical and Scientific Challenges of Creating a Data Visualization Environment for Storm-scale Deterministic and Ensemble Forecasts. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [195K PDF]

Levit, J.J.*, V. Lakshmanan, K. Manross and R.S. Schneider, 2004: Integration of the Warning Decision Support System - Integrated Information into the NOAA Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [60K PDF]

Lynn, R.J., * 2002: The WDSS-II Supercell Identification and Assessment Algorithm. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [124K PDF]

Lynn, R.J.*, and V. Lakshmanan, 2002: Virtual Radar Volumes: Creation, Algorithm Access, and Visualization. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [121K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, J.T. Schaefer*, and R. Edwards, 2006: What Are We Doing with (or to) the F-Scale? Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [170 KB PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and K.P. Tarp, 2005: Covering the Storm: Broadcasting from the NWS Storm Prediction Center and Other National Centers. Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 4.1. [21K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2005: 2004 Year in Tornadoes: What a Year It Was! Preprints, 30th NWA Anunual Meeting, St. Louis MO, 2.1. [179K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Trends over the Past 30 Years. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [218K PDF]

McCarthy, D.W.*, 2003: NWS Tornado Surveys and the Impact on the National Tornado Database. Preprints, 1st Symp. F-Scale and Severe-Weather Damage Assessment, Long Beach, CA. [1735K PDF]

Mead, C.M., and R.L. Thompson, 2010: A Synoptic-scale Environment Associated with Significant Nocturnal Tornado Events in the Great Plains. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1047K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, J. Correia Jr., A.R. Dean, and S.J. Weiss, 2013: Utility of Objective Verification Metrics during the 2013 HWT Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 38th NWA Ann. Meeting, Charleston, SC, Natl. Wea. Assoc. [1020K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, A.R. Dean, J. Correia Jr., and S.J. Weiss, 2012: Real Time Objective Verification of Convective Forecasts: 2012 HWT Spring Forecast Experiment. Preprints, 37th Natl. Wea. Assoc. Ann. Meeting, Madison, WI. [1102K PDF]

Melick, C.J., I.L. Jirak, S.J. Weiss, A.J. Clark, P.T. Marsh, J.S. Kain, M. Xue, F. Kong, and K.W. Thomas, 2010: An Environmental Climatology of the CAPS Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast System during the 2010 HWT Spring Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1891K PDF]

Miller, S.J. Jr.*, G.W. Carbin, J.S. Kain, E.W. McCaul Jr., A.R. Dean, C.J. Melick, and S.J. Weiss, 2010: Preliminary Investigation into Lightning Hazard Prediction from High Resolution Numerical Model Output. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [821K PDF]

Racy, J.P.*, and J.A. Rogash*, 2002: The Oklahoma Tornado Outbreak and Flash Flood Event of 4-5 October 1998. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [219K PDF]

Rogers, J.W., 2012: Significant Tornado Events with Cell Mergers. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [1173K PDF]

Sankovitch, V.*, J.T. Schaefer* and J.J. Levit*, 2004: A Comparison of Rawinsonde Data from the Southeastern United States during El Nino, La Nina, and Neutral Winters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [78K PDF]

Schaefer, J.T.*, J.J. Levit*, S.J. Weiss and D.W. McCarthy*, 2004: The Frequency of Large Hail over the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 14th Conf. Applied Climatology, Seattle WA. [2554K PDF]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and C. Marzban, 2000: Tornadoes in the United States as Related to the Tropical Pacific Sea Surface Temperature. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [126K HTML]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and R. Edwards, 1999: The SPC Tornado/Severe Thunderstorm Database. Preprints, 11th Conf. Applied Climatology, Dallas. [266K HTML]

Schaefer, J.T.*, and F.B. Tatom, 1998: The Relationship between El Nino, La Nina and United States Tornado Activity. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [154K HTML]

Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, and H.E. Brooks, 2009: Estimating Potential Severe Weather Societal Impacts Using Probabilistic Forecasts Issued by the NWS Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Weather Analysis and Forecasting, Omaha NE. [109K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., and A.R. Dean, 2008: A Comprehensive 5-year Severe Storm Environment Climatology for the Continental United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [556K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., A.R. Dean, S.J. Weiss, and P.D. Bothwell, 2006: Analysis of Estimated Environments for 2004 and 2005 Severe Convective Storm Reports. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [520K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., J.T. Schaefer*, and H.E. Brooks, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Days: An Updated and Expanded Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [232K PDF]

Schneider, R.S., H.E. Brooks and J.T. Schaefer*, 2004: Tornado Outbreak Day Sequences: Historic Events and Climatology (1875-2003). Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [586K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, H.E. Brooks, A.R. Dean, and K.L. Elmore, 2012: Diagnosis of Conditional Maximum Tornado Probabilities. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [4174K PDF]

Smith, B.T., A.C. Winters, C.M. Mead, A.R. Dean, and T.E. Castellanos, 2010: Measured Severe Wind Gust Climatology of Thunderstorms for the Contiguous United States, 2003-2009. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [1653K PDF]

Smith, B.T., R.L. Thompson, J.S. Grams, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [2835K PDF]

Smith, B.T., J.L. Guyer and A.R. Dean, 2008: The Climatology, Convective Mode, and Mesoscale Environment of Cool Season Severe Thunderstorms in the Ohio and Tennessee Valleys, 1995-2006. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [292K PDF]

Taylor, S.J.*, D.R. Bright*, G.W. Carbin, P.D. Bothwell, and R.J. Naden*, 2003: Using Short Range Ensemble Model Data in National Fire Weather Outlooks. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Orlando FL. [111K PDF] (supplemental web page)

Taylor, S.J.*, and E.D. Howieson, 2001: A New Approach to Fire Weather Forecasting at the Tulsa WFO. Preprints, 4th Symp. Fire and Forest Meteor., Reno NV. [215K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, A.R. Dean, and P.T. Marsh, 2012: Spatial Distributions of Tornadic Near-storm Environments by Convective Mode. Preprints, 26th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Nashville TN. [5572K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., B.T. Smith, J.S. Grams, A.R. Dean, and C. Broyles, 2010: Climatology of Near-storm Environments with Convective Modes for Significant Severe Thunderstorms in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [388K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., J.S. Grams and J.A. Prentice, 2008: Synoptic Environments and Convective Modes Associated with Significant Tornadoes in the Contiguous United States. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [702K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., and C.M. Mead, 2006: Tornado Failure Modes in Central and Southern Great Plains Severe Thunderstorm Episodes. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [192K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., C.M. Mead, and R. Edwards, 2004: Effective Bulk Shear in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [258K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead, 2004: Effective Storm-Relative Helicity in Supercell Thunderstorm Environments. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [215K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, and C.M. Mead, 2004: An Update to the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [134K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: Evaluation and Interpretation of the Supercell Composite and Significant Tornado Parameters at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [170K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards and J.A. Hart, 2002: An Assessment of Supercell and Tornado Forecast Parameters with RUC-2 Model Close Proximity Soundings. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [145K PDF]

Thompson, R.L., R. Edwards, J.A. Hart and K.L. Elmore, 2002: RUC-2 Model Analysis Soundings as a Surrogate for Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [179K PDF]

Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: A Comparison of Rapid Update Cycle 2 (RUC-2) Model Soundings with Observed Soundings in Supercell Environments. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [71K HTML]

Thompson, R.L. and R. Edwards, 2000: RUC-2 Supercell Proximity Soundings, Part I: An Examination of Storm-Relative Winds Normalized to Supercell Depth. Preprints, 20th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Orlando FL. [195K HTML]

Thompson, R.L. and M.D. Vescio*, 1998: The Destruction Potential Index: A Method for Comparing Tornado Days. Preprints, 19th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Minneapolis MN [44K HTML]

Weiss, S.J., A.J. Clark, I.L. Jirak, C.J. Melick, C. Siewert, R.A. Sobash, P.T. Marsh, A.R. Dean, J.S. Kain, M. Coniglio, M. Xue, F. Kong, K.W. Thomas, J. Du, D.R. Novak, F. Barthold, M.J. Bodner, J.J. Levit, C.B. Entwistle, R.S. Schneider, and T.L. Jensen, 2010: An Overview of the 2010 NOAA Hazardous Weather Testbed Spring Forecasting Experiment. Preprints, 25th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Denver CO. [601K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., M.E. Pyle, Z. Janjic, D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, and G.J. DiMego, 2008: The Opertaional High Resolution Window WRF Model Runs at NCEP: Advantages of Multiple Model Runs for Severe Convective Weather Forecasting. Preprints, 24th Conf. Severe Local Storms, Savannah GA. [1058K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., D.R. Bright*, J.S. Kain, J.J. Levit*, M.E. Pyle, Z.I. Janjic, B.S. Ferrier, and J. Du, 2006: Complementary Use of Short-range Ensemble and 4.5 KM WRF-NMM Model Guidance for Severe Weather Forecasting at the Storm Prediction Center. Preprints, 23rd Conf. Severe Local Storms, St. Louis MO. [443K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., J.S. Kain, J.J. Levit*, M.E. Baldwin, and D.R. Bright*, 2004: Examination of Several Different Versions of the WRF Model for the Prediction of Severe Convective Weather: The SPC/NSSL Spring Program 2004. Preprints, 22nd Conf. Severe Local Storms, Hyannis MA. [269K PDF]

Weiss, S.J., J.A. Hart and P.R. Janish*, 2002: An Examination of Severe Thunderstorm Wind Report Climatology: 1970-1999. Preprints, 21st Conf. Severe Local Storms, San Antonio TX. [218K PDF]

Informal Articles

These are articles written for informal publications, seminars, or presentations.

Corfidi, S. F., 2014: Noteworthy North American Tornado Outbreaks (A PowerPoint poster with historical information on North American tornado outbreaks)

Corfidi, S. F., 2013: History of the Storm Prediction Center (A PowerPoint poster on the history of the NOAA Storm Prediction Center)

Corfidi, S. F., 2013: An Introduction to Severe Weather Forecasting.
(supplemental slide show)
(PowerPoint poster on severe weather forecasting)

Corfidi, S. F., 2010: Factors governing MCS movement and flash flooding.
(supplemental slide show)

Corfidi, S. F., 2014: The Colors of Twilight and Sunset. (An early, abridged version of this manuscript appeared in Weatherwise magazine, June/July 1996; Updated September 2014). [HTML]

Corfidi, S. F., 2013: Those Hazy Days of Summer: Haze Over the Central and Eastern United States. (An earlier version of this manuscript appeared in Weatherwise magazine, June/July 1993; Updated June 2013). [HTML]

Edwards, R. and D.G. Harmon, 1999: Lubbock F-Scale Exercise on Spencer, SD Tornado Damage. Conducted at NWS/Texas Tech Severe Weather Conference, Lubbock TX. [2339K HTML]

McCarthy, D.W.*, and J.T. Schaefer*, 1999: 1998 Weather: Tornadoes. Published in Weatherwise. [89K HTML]

Stough, S.*, E.M. Leitman, J.L. Peters and J. Correia Jr., 2012: The Role of Storm Prediction Center Products in Decision Making Leading up to Severe Weather Events. [576K PDF]

Taylor, S.J.*, and E. Howieson, 2001: Eastern Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas Winter Storm 12-13 December 2000. Conducted at 2001 NWA Severe Storms and Radar Conference. [739K HTML]

Thompson, R.L., 1996: Buoy Observations from the Western Gulf of Mexico during the 1993-1994 Cool Season. [HTML]

*Affiliated with SPC at the time of the publication
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