(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 190815
SPC AC 190815
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0315 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018
Valid 221200Z - 271200Z
A benign pattern for severe weather will persist at least through
the Mon/D4-Wed/D6 period, owing to stable air over most of the CONUS
with high pressure. By the D7-D8 time frame, the upper trough over
the Northeast is forecast to lift out, allowing for some height
rises/warming to occur along the Gulf Coast. Predictability is
currently low, but a few severe storms cannot be ruled out on Thu/D7
along the northern Gulf Coast with the possibility of a
lower-latitude shortwave trough developing. Even so, any potential
storms will be working with only marginal instability.
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