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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Jul 21, 2019
Updated: Sun Jul 21 08:51:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, Jul 24, 2019 - Thu, Jul 25, 2019 D7Sat, Jul 27, 2019 - Sun, Jul 28, 2019
D5Thu, Jul 25, 2019 - Fri, Jul 26, 2019 D8Sun, Jul 28, 2019 - Mon, Jul 29, 2019
D6Fri, Jul 26, 2019 - Sat, Jul 27, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210849
   SPC AC 210849

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0349 AM CDT Sun Jul 21 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   Weakening of the eastern U.S. upper-level trough early in the period
   will result in a more zonal component to the mid/upper-level flow
   across the CONUS, with the strongest winds confined to the northern
   tier of states.  Surface high pressure will build eastward in the
   wake of a frontal boundary extending from FL west through south TX,
   with a notably drier air mass over much of the central/eastern U.S.
   contributing to low severe potential.  

   By Day 6/Friday and beyond, a couple of shortwave troughs within the
   stronger flow aloft will affect areas from the northern Rockies east
   to the Great Lakes.  Although the severe threat will likely increase
   during this time frame, predictability remains low due to
   uncertainty regarding the timing of these features and spatial
   distribution of instability/favorable shear.

   ..Bunting.. 07/21/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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