(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120922
SPC AC 120922
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0322 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
Medium-range model output indicates that much of the U.S. will
remain under the general influence of split westerlies emanating
from the mid-latitude Pacific through this period. However, the
potential for significant surface cyclogenesis appears low, at least
to the lee of the southern Rockies. Given the lack of a developing
return flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and the maintenance of
relatively cool/dry and stable conditions over the Gulf of Mexico
(in the wake of a cyclone progressing east of the south Atlantic
Seaboard this weekend), the risk for severe convection appears
negligible through at least the middle of next week.
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