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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on May 26, 2019
Updated: Sun May 26 08:38:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Wed, May 29, 2019 - Thu, May 30, 2019 D7Sat, Jun 01, 2019 - Sun, Jun 02, 2019
D5Thu, May 30, 2019 - Fri, May 31, 2019 D8Sun, Jun 02, 2019 - Mon, Jun 03, 2019
D6Fri, May 31, 2019 - Sat, Jun 01, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 260836
   SPC AC 260836

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0336 AM CDT Sun May 26 2019

   Valid 291200Z - 031200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   On D4/Wednesday, a mid-level disturbance will eject across the
   southern Plains and eventually merge/phase with a weaker trough over
   the Missouri Valley region.  Meanwhile, a nearly stationary boundary
   will remain oriented from southwest to northeast from west Texas to
   Illinois.  Ahead of this boundary, strong instability will remain in
   place owing to low 70s F dewpoints and modestly steep mid-level
   lapse rates.  Storms should evolve into one or two expansive
   clusters along the OK/TX Red River and migrate into Arkansas. 
   Strong deep shear will be in place, with sufficient veering with
   height for organized storms and perhaps a few supercells.  A risk of
   all severe hazards will exist with this activity, and a 15% risk
   area remain in place.  Farther northeast, convective coverage is
   uncertain across portions of Illinois/Indiana, although a severe
   risk should develop along and ahead of a weak boundary and weak
   surface low just west of the area.  This region will be monitored
   for a greater severe risk in later outlooks.

   On D5/Thursday, differences in the large-scale pattern become large 
   enough to cast doubt on any potential severe weather.  Some risk
   will exist from portions of the Ohio Valley northeastward toward
   southern New York ahead of a weak wave over the Midwest, although a
   lack of a distinct synoptic-forcing mechanism (that would foster a
   concentration of severe storms) precludes 15% probability
   delineations at this time.

   From D6/Friday onward, the pattern shifts to quasi-zonal with much
   weaker flow aloft (more characteristic of summer).  The risk of
   severe storms should remain low enough during that period to
   preclude any highlighted areas for the remainder of the forecast
   period.

   ..Cook.. 05/26/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: May 26, 2019
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