(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
ACUS48 KWNS 120937
SPC AC 120937
Day 4-8 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0337 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019
Valid 151200Z - 201200Z
A propensity for troughs to develop over the eastern half of the
CONUS will persist through the D4-8 period, with very little
thunderstorm potential as high pressure remains at the surface. An
exception to this rule will be on Friday/D4 over Florida, where a
cold front and compact shortwave trough will encounter a moistening
air mass ahead of a cold front. Rain and thunderstorms are expected
to be ongoing Friday morning, prior to the front clearing the east
coast of Florida. While modest mid to upper winds will exist,
instability will be very weak. Therefore, little threat of severe
storms is expected Friday.
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