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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Nov 12, 2019
Updated: Tue Nov 12 09:39:02 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, Nov 15, 2019 - Sat, Nov 16, 2019 D7Mon, Nov 18, 2019 - Tue, Nov 19, 2019
D5Sat, Nov 16, 2019 - Sun, Nov 17, 2019 D8Tue, Nov 19, 2019 - Wed, Nov 20, 2019
D6Sun, Nov 17, 2019 - Mon, Nov 18, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 120937
   SPC AC 120937

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0337 AM CST Tue Nov 12 2019

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   A propensity for troughs to develop over the eastern half of the
   CONUS will persist through the D4-8 period, with very little
   thunderstorm potential as high pressure remains at the surface. An
   exception to this rule will be on Friday/D4 over Florida, where a
   cold front and compact shortwave trough will encounter a moistening
   air mass ahead of a cold front. Rain and thunderstorms are expected
   to be ongoing Friday morning, prior to the front clearing the east
   coast of Florida. While modest mid to upper winds will exist,
   instability will be very weak. Therefore, little threat of severe
   storms is expected Friday.

   ..Jewell.. 11/12/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: November 12, 2019
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