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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 19, 2019
Updated: Tue Feb 19 09:59:03 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Fri, Feb 22, 2019 - Sat, Feb 23, 2019 D7Mon, Feb 25, 2019 - Tue, Feb 26, 2019
D5Sat, Feb 23, 2019 - Sun, Feb 24, 2019 D8Tue, Feb 26, 2019 - Wed, Feb 27, 2019
D6Sun, Feb 24, 2019 - Mon, Feb 25, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 190957
   SPC AC 190957

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 AM CST Tue Feb 19 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   Medium-range models suggest that blocking will become more prominent
   at a higher latitude of the northeastern Pacific this coming weekend
   through early next week.  As this occurs, split downstream
   westerlies will generally converge inland of the Pacific coast, with
   the southern mid-latitude and subtropical westerlies generally
   decreasing in amplitude across the southern tier of the United
   States.  

   Prior to this transition, at least one more vigorous short wave
   impulse is forecast to emerge from persistent larger-scale western
   U.S. troughing late this week, as a significant upstream
   perturbation digs into the U.S. Pacific Northwest.  Latest model
   output remains similar to prior runs indicating that the lead
   impulse will support strong cyclogenesis to the lee of the Rockies,
   likely from the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandle vicinity through the Great
   Lakes on Saturday.  It still appears probable that there will be
   sufficient boundary layer moisture return across the evolving warm
   sector to contribute to weak to modest destabilization in the
   presence of intensifying wind fields (including 50-70+ kt in the
   850-500 mb layer), from portions of the lower southern Plains and
   Ozark Plateau through portions of the lower Mississippi and Ohio
   Valleys.  Forcing for ascent may support the evolution of a
   mesoscale convective system capable of producing damaging wind
   gusts.  This could be preceded by discrete supercell development and
   an associated risk for tornadoes.

   Although more uncertain, it is possible that severe weather
   potential could continue eastward into portions of the Allegheny and
   Cumberland Plateaus by late Saturday night.  Uncertainty concerning
   this potential increases further for Sunday, eastward and
   southeastward across the Mid Atlantic and Southeast.

   ..Kerr.. 02/19/2019

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: February 19, 2019
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