Skip Navigation Links weather.gov 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap


 
USA.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 19, 2018
Updated: Fri Oct 19 08:17:03 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Mon, Oct 22, 2018 - Tue, Oct 23, 2018 D7Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - Fri, Oct 26, 2018
D5Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - Wed, Oct 24, 2018 D8Fri, Oct 26, 2018 - Sat, Oct 27, 2018
D6Wed, Oct 24, 2018 - Thu, Oct 25, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
   ACUS48 KWNS 190815
   SPC AC 190815

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0315 AM CDT Fri Oct 19 2018

   Valid 221200Z - 271200Z

   ...DISCUSSION...
   A benign pattern for severe weather will persist at least through
   the Mon/D4-Wed/D6 period, owing to stable air over most of the CONUS
   with high pressure. By the D7-D8 time frame, the upper trough over
   the Northeast is forecast to lift out, allowing for some height
   rises/warming to occur along the Gulf Coast. Predictability is
   currently low, but a few severe storms cannot be ruled out on Thu/D7
   along the northern Gulf Coast with the possibility of a
   lower-latitude shortwave trough developing. Even so, any potential
   storms will be working with only marginal instability.

   ..Jewell.. 10/19/2018

   CLICK TO GET WUUS48 PTSD48 PRODUCT


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
spc.feedback@noaa.gov
Page last modified: October 19, 2018
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Help
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities