Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 12, 2018
Updated: Wed Dec 12 09:24:03 UTC 2018
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Population  Cities  CWAs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Sat, Dec 15, 2018 - Sun, Dec 16, 2018 D7Tue, Dec 18, 2018 - Wed, Dec 19, 2018
D5Sun, Dec 16, 2018 - Mon, Dec 17, 2018 D8Wed, Dec 19, 2018 - Thu, Dec 20, 2018
D6Mon, Dec 17, 2018 - Tue, Dec 18, 2018 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 120922
   SPC AC 120922

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0322 AM CST Wed Dec 12 2018

   Valid 151200Z - 201200Z

   Medium-range model output indicates that much of the U.S. will
   remain under the general influence of split westerlies emanating
   from the mid-latitude Pacific through this period.  However, the
   potential for significant surface cyclogenesis appears low, at least
   to the lee of the southern Rockies.  Given the lack of a developing
   return flow off the Gulf of Mexico, and the maintenance of
   relatively cool/dry and stable conditions over the Gulf of Mexico
   (in the wake of a cyclone progressing east of the south Atlantic
   Seaboard this weekend), the risk for severe convection appears
   negligible through at least the middle of next week.

   ..Kerr.. 12/12/2018


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: December 12, 2018
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities