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< Day 3 Outlook    
Day 4-8 Severe Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 21, 2019
Updated: Sat Sep 21 07:46:03 UTC 2019
D4-8 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

D4Tue, Sep 24, 2019 - Wed, Sep 25, 2019 D7Fri, Sep 27, 2019 - Sat, Sep 28, 2019
D5Wed, Sep 25, 2019 - Thu, Sep 26, 2019 D8Sat, Sep 28, 2019 - Sun, Sep 29, 2019
D6Thu, Sep 26, 2019 - Fri, Sep 27, 2019 (All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC the following day)
Note: A severe weather area depicted in the Day 4-8 period indicates 15%, 30% or higher probability for severe thunderstorms within 25 miles of any point.
PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW is used to indicate severe storms may be possible based on some model scenarios. However, the location or occurrence of severe storms are in doubt due to: 1) large differences in the deterministic model solutions, 2) large spread in the ensemble guidance, and/or 3) minimal run-to-run continuity.
POTENTIAL TOO LOW means the threat for a regional area of organized severe storms appears unlikely (i.e., less than 15%) for the forecast day.
 Forecast Discussion

   ACUS48 KWNS 210744
   SPC AC 210744

   Day 4-8 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

   Valid 241200Z - 291200Z

   On Tuesday/D4, a broad upper trough is forecast to dive
   southeastward across northern Rockies and Plains, with substantial
   cooling aloft and increasing wind fields. A cold front will
   accompany this system, and should extend roughly from MN into NE.
   Models differ on timing of the leading shortwave, with the ECMWF
   relatively slow with the development of precipitation along the
   front. As such, predictability is too low for D4 but severe
   probabilities for hail and wind may be added in later outlooks. A
   continuation of scattered storms is expected into Wednesday/D5 as
   the cold front progresses east, with a lesser threat of severe
   storms from KS into IL.

   For the D6-D8 period, the upper low over the Southwest will
   eventually eject northeast across the Plains, and may provide a
   focus for a few severe storms on D6 or D7, though predictability is
   quite low. Beyond this time frame, a large-scale trough
   amplification over the West is likely, with warm and moist
   conditions over much of the Plains.

   ..Jewell.. 09/21/2019


To retrieve previous Day 4-8 convective outlooks, enter the date YYYYMMDD (e.g., 20050310 for March 10, 2005.)
Data available since March 8, 2005.
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Page last modified: September 21, 2019
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