ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 162155

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0455 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019

   Valid 181200Z - 241200Z

   Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the western CONUS on
   Day 3/Friday - Day 6/Monday with multiple shortwave troughs passing
   through. The first surface cold front passage through the western
   CONUS will occur on Day 3/Friday with a stronger cold air surge on
   Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday. This will lead to surface high
   pressure establishing in the Great Basin leading to a strengthening
   pressure gradient resulting in offshore flow in southern California
   this weekend into next week.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Day 7/Tuesday: southern California...
   Dry, northerly offshore flow will continue and strengthen into Day
   3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday across Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
   and into Los Angeles County. Surface pressure gradients are
   approaching critical thresholds with locally critical conditions
   likely in portions of the higher terrain. Winds will begin to switch
   from northerly to more northeasterly-easterly late on Day 4/Saturday
   into Day 7/Tuesday across southern California. Critical conditions
   are possible across much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges on
   Day 5/Sunday - Day 7/Tuesday. As of now, forecast uncertainty
   regarding wind speeds preclude higher probabilities. However,
   confidence is high for offshore/downslope winds through much of the
   period across southern California.

   ...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday: southern High Plains...
   Elevated/locally critical conditions are likely to develop ahead of
   a surface cold front in southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico and
   vicinity on Day 3/Friday. Downslope flow and lee troughing may
   result in critical conditions in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo
   Mountains/vicinity on Day 4/Saturday. Additionally, critical
   conditions could develop ahead of a surface cold front in the
   interior Intermountain West from southern Nevada/northern Arizona
   into western Colorado. On Day 5/Sunday, dry/windy post-frontal
   conditions will likely produce critical winds/RH across portions of
   the southern High Plains. However, fuels are still drying out across
   portions of the southern High Plains after early October
   precipitation. If fuels continue to dry and critical winds/RH are
   still forecast, an upgrade will likely be needed.

   ..Nauslar.. 10/16/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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