ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   A progressive pattern will continue across the CONUS through the
   outlook period. An upper-level trough will move over the western
   CONUS on Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with another upper-level
   trough moving southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the
   Intermountain West and deepening on Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday.
   Shortwave upper-level ridging will develop over the West Coast On
   Day 6/Sunday - Day 7/Monday before another shortwave trough flattens
   the ridge on Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday. Surface high pressure
   will settle into the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday
   likely resulting in offshore flow across southern California.

   ...Day 3/Thursday: western Colorado into central Wyoming...
   Critical conditions may develop under 40-50 knot mid-level flow and
   ahead of a surface cold front near a strengthening pressure gradient
   across western Colorado/eastern Utah into portions of central
   Wyoming. South-southwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and RH values
   of 10-20% are likely during the afternoon with critically dry fuels
   (ERCs mostly above 80th percentile) across portions of western
   Colorado, eastern Utah, and southern Wyoming. While surrounding
   areas may see stronger winds/lower RH or have drier fuels, the 70%
   area identifies the best overlap of the strongest winds, lowest RH,
   and driest fuels.

   ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 6/Sunday: southern High Plains...
   On Day 3/Thursday, critical conditions may develop across northeast
   New Mexico into far southwest Kansas due to lee troughing amid a dry
   airmass. On Day 4/Friday, a similar area may experience critical
   conditions ahead of an approaching cold front sliding southward
   across the Plains. Dry/windy post-frontal conditions will likely
   develop on Day 6/Sunday from eastern Colorado southward into eastern
   New Mexico, which could result in critical conditions. While fuels
   are mostly not critically dry, fuels should be receptive enough for
   fire spread given the weather conditions. However, conditions are
   more likely to be elevated/locally critical given the forecast total
   fire environment.

   ...Day 4/Friday - Day 8/Tuesday: southern California...
   Dry, northerly offshore flow (Sundowner Winds) are expected to
   develop on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday across much of Santa
   Barbara and Ventura Counties. As the upper-level pattern progresses
   and surface high pressure settles into the Great Basin over the
   weekend, a transition from northerly to northeasterly-easterly
   offshore flow will take place across southern California. This will
   likely result in elevated to potentially critical conditions through
   Day 7/Monday and possibly into Day 8/Tuesday. There is still enough
   forecast uncertainty regarding the strength of offshore flow to
   preclude introducing higher probabilities, but confidence is high
   that an offshore (Santa Ana) wind event will occur over the weekend
   into next week across southern California.

   ..Nauslar.. 10/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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