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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Mar 28, 2020
Updated: Sat Mar 28 21:38:02 UTC 2020  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 58,616 1,025,224 Lubbock, TX...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...Roswell, NM...Clovis, NM...
D3Mon, Mar 30, 2020 - Tue, Mar 31, 2020 D6Thu, Apr 02, 2020 - Fri, Apr 03, 2020
D4Tue, Mar 31, 2020 - Wed, Apr 01, 2020 D7Fri, Apr 03, 2020 - Sat, Apr 04, 2020
D5Wed, Apr 01, 2020 - Thu, Apr 02, 2020 D8Sat, Apr 04, 2020 - Sun, Apr 05, 2020
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 282134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the
   Southwest and across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Day
   3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday. An associated surface cyclone will track
   eastward with a trailing cold front pushing south/east into the Gulf
   of Mexico. The surface low is forecast to deepen on Day 4/Tuesday
   into Day 5/Wednesday as moves east/northeast over the Gulf Stream
   offshore from Georgia and the Carolinas leading to a strengthening
   surface pressure gradient across the area including over the Florida
   Peninsula. A low amplitude upper-level trough associated with the
   subtropical jet is forecast to move over the Southwest/southern High
   Plains on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with a surface low and
   lee troughing developing on the southern High Plains.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: southern High Plains...
   On Day 3/Monday, critical conditions are likely to develop across
   much of eastern New Mexico into west Texas with widespread
   elevated/locally critical conditions across much of the southern
   High Plains. Westerly winds (turning west-northwest in the evening)
   will strengthen behind a sharpening dryline and under a mid-level
   jet of 75+ knots. The 70% area was placed where strong low-level
   winds overlap the low-level thermal ridge per latest guidance.
   Locally extremely critical winds/RH are possible, especially across
   northeast portions of the Trans-Pecos and along/east of the Davis
   Mountains. While ERCs are mostly near normal and there is some
   green-up occurring, 10/100-hour dead fuel moisture values are well
   below normal.

   Typical dry/breezy conditions are likely across portions of
   east-central New Mexico on Day 4/Tuesday. However, stronger
   mid-level flow arrives on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with lee
   troughing increasing winds amid a continued dry airmass. However,
   current forecast guidance suggests sub-critical conditions across
   the region.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
   Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible on Day
   4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday across central/eastern portions of the
   Florida Peninsula. A deep well-mixed boundary layer will help lower
   surface RH and transport stronger winds to the surface on Day
   4/Tuesday, and the surface pressure gradient will likely strengthen
   as the surface low begins to deepen across Georgia. 

   While rain is possible Day 4/Tuesday night into Day 5/Wednesday
   morning as a cold front pushes southeast, rainfall is likely to be
   more isolated/scattered and light across much of the Florida
   Peninsula. Dry/breezy conditions will develop behind the cold front
   as winds shift to the northwest. ERCs are mostly at/above the 85th
   percentile with some areas approaching the 95th percentile across
   the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, lightning-ignited wildfires are
   possible given the potential for thunderstorms over dry fuels.

   ..Nauslar.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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