Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 162155
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0455 PM CDT Wed Oct 16 2019
Valid 181200Z - 241200Z
Broad upper-level troughing will continue over the western CONUS on
Day 3/Friday - Day 6/Monday with multiple shortwave troughs passing
through. The first surface cold front passage through the western
CONUS will occur on Day 3/Friday with a stronger cold air surge on
Day 4/Saturday - Day 5/Sunday. This will lead to surface high
pressure establishing in the Great Basin leading to a strengthening
pressure gradient resulting in offshore flow in southern California
this weekend into next week.
...Day 3/Friday - Day 7/Tuesday: southern California...
Dry, northerly offshore flow will continue and strengthen into Day
3/Friday - Day 4/Saturday across Santa Barbara and Ventura Counties
and into Los Angeles County. Surface pressure gradients are
approaching critical thresholds with locally critical conditions
likely in portions of the higher terrain. Winds will begin to switch
from northerly to more northeasterly-easterly late on Day 4/Saturday
into Day 7/Tuesday across southern California. Critical conditions
are possible across much of the Transverse and Peninsular Ranges on
Day 5/Sunday - Day 7/Tuesday. As of now, forecast uncertainty
regarding wind speeds preclude higher probabilities. However,
confidence is high for offshore/downslope winds through much of the
period across southern California.
...Day 3/Friday - Day 5/Sunday: southern High Plains...
Elevated/locally critical conditions are likely to develop ahead of
a surface cold front in southeast Colorado/northeast New Mexico and
vicinity on Day 3/Friday. Downslope flow and lee troughing may
result in critical conditions in the lee of the Sangre de Cristo
Mountains/vicinity on Day 4/Saturday. Additionally, critical
conditions could develop ahead of a surface cold front in the
interior Intermountain West from southern Nevada/northern Arizona
into western Colorado. On Day 5/Sunday, dry/windy post-frontal
conditions will likely produce critical winds/RH across portions of
the southern High Plains. However, fuels are still drying out across
portions of the southern High Plains after early October
precipitation. If fuels continue to dry and critical winds/RH are
still forecast, an upgrade will likely be needed.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT