ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   A cyclonic upper-level flow pattern will prevail across the western
   CONUS during the Day 3/Tuesday period. Large scale ascent associated
   with the cyclonic flow is expected to support noticeable
   precipitation accumulations across much of the Great Basin/Four
   Corners areas, as well as along the Pacific Northwest Coast. A
   small, but vigorous embedded shortwave, with associated surface
   troughing may also induce dry/breezy southerly flow along the
   Cascades (mainly in central/southern Oregon). While fuels may be
   conducive for fire spread in this area Day 3, the marginal nature of
   the surface wind/RH conditions precludes any probability
   delineations. 

   From Days 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday, a strong upper-level ridge will
   develop across the western CONUS. Strong mid-level flow, with
   embedded shortwave troughs, and periods of accumulating
   precipitation, will traverse the ridge, from the Pacific Northwest,
   to the Northern/Central Rockies regions. Some model guidance
   suggests very strong, post-frontal surface winds, with seasonably
   warm temperatures and near-critical RH may occur from central
   Montana, eastward into the northwestern High Plains on Day 6/Friday,
   but lack of agreement among multiple models in timing/spatial
   placement of favorable surface fire weather conditions reduces
   confidence in delineating probabilities at this time. Future
   precipitation accumulation associated with the aforementioned
   mid-level shortwave troughs leading up to Day 6, as well as the
   evolution of finer fuels, will also play considerable roles in later
   forecasts.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/21/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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