ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 282134

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0434 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020

   Valid 301200Z - 051200Z

   An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the
   Southwest and across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Day
   3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday. An associated surface cyclone will track
   eastward with a trailing cold front pushing south/east into the Gulf
   of Mexico. The surface low is forecast to deepen on Day 4/Tuesday
   into Day 5/Wednesday as moves east/northeast over the Gulf Stream
   offshore from Georgia and the Carolinas leading to a strengthening
   surface pressure gradient across the area including over the Florida
   Peninsula. A low amplitude upper-level trough associated with the
   subtropical jet is forecast to move over the Southwest/southern High
   Plains on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with a surface low and
   lee troughing developing on the southern High Plains.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: southern High Plains...
   On Day 3/Monday, critical conditions are likely to develop across
   much of eastern New Mexico into west Texas with widespread
   elevated/locally critical conditions across much of the southern
   High Plains. Westerly winds (turning west-northwest in the evening)
   will strengthen behind a sharpening dryline and under a mid-level
   jet of 75+ knots. The 70% area was placed where strong low-level
   winds overlap the low-level thermal ridge per latest guidance.
   Locally extremely critical winds/RH are possible, especially across
   northeast portions of the Trans-Pecos and along/east of the Davis
   Mountains. While ERCs are mostly near normal and there is some
   green-up occurring, 10/100-hour dead fuel moisture values are well
   below normal.

   Typical dry/breezy conditions are likely across portions of
   east-central New Mexico on Day 4/Tuesday. However, stronger
   mid-level flow arrives on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with lee
   troughing increasing winds amid a continued dry airmass. However,
   current forecast guidance suggests sub-critical conditions across
   the region.

   ...Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
   Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible on Day
   4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday across central/eastern portions of the
   Florida Peninsula. A deep well-mixed boundary layer will help lower
   surface RH and transport stronger winds to the surface on Day
   4/Tuesday, and the surface pressure gradient will likely strengthen
   as the surface low begins to deepen across Georgia. 

   While rain is possible Day 4/Tuesday night into Day 5/Wednesday
   morning as a cold front pushes southeast, rainfall is likely to be
   more isolated/scattered and light across much of the Florida
   Peninsula. Dry/breezy conditions will develop behind the cold front
   as winds shift to the northwest. ERCs are mostly at/above the 85th
   percentile with some areas approaching the 95th percentile across
   the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, lightning-ignited wildfires are
   possible given the potential for thunderstorms over dry fuels.

   ..Nauslar.. 03/28/2020

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

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