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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 17, 2018
Updated: Mon Sep 17 20:59:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 44,625 821,573 Ogden, UT...Idaho Falls, ID...Pocatello, ID...Logan, UT...Roy, UT...
D4 9,931 16,701 Laramie, WY...Rawlins, WY...
D3Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - Thu, Sep 20, 2018 D6Sat, Sep 22, 2018 - Sun, Sep 23, 2018
D4Thu, Sep 20, 2018 - Fri, Sep 21, 2018 D7Sun, Sep 23, 2018 - Mon, Sep 24, 2018
D5Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - Sat, Sep 22, 2018 D8Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - Tue, Sep 25, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 172057

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0357 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018

   Valid 191200Z - 251200Z

   Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the western U.S.
   through at least Day 5/Fri. Beyond Day 5, medium range guidance has
   large enough differences that predictability becomes too low to
   include probabilities, but some potential may persist across the
   Great Basin into the coming weekend.

   ...Days 3-5/Wed-Fri -- Portions of the Intermountain West...

   An upper trough will track east across the Great Basin on Day 3/Wed.
   This will result in strong deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of
   the trough. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will deepen from the
   central High Plains into the eastern Great Basin. This will aid in
   the development of gusty west/southwest winds from southern ID into
   parts of southwest WY, southward into parts of NV/UT and northwest
   CO. The strongest winds will align with low RH conditions from
   southeast ID into northeast UT, southwest WY and far northwest CO
   and critical fire weather conditions are likely, surrounded by
   broader, more widespread elevated conditions.

   By Day 4/Thu, deep layer flow will become more westerly with
   strength decreasing through the period as the upper trough ejects
   eastward across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Elevated to critical
   conditions still appear possible through the afternoon hours across
   parts of southern WY before flow weakens considerably.

   On Day 5/Fri, shortwave upper ridging will develop over the northern
   Rockies ahead of another shortwave impulse moving over the Pacific
   Northwest. As the shortwave trough moves onshore by late afternoon,
   deep layer westerly flow will increase across the Pacific Northwest
   into the western Great Basin. Breezy downslope westerly flow will
   combine with continued dryness and elevated to possibly critical
   conditions will be possible in the lee of the Sierra across
   northeast CA into NV, as well as across southeast OR and possible
   southwest ID.

   ..Leitman.. 09/17/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: September 17, 2018
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