Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 152157
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0457 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019
Valid 171200Z - 231200Z
A progressive pattern will continue across the CONUS through the
outlook period. An upper-level trough will move over the western
CONUS on Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with another upper-level
trough moving southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the
Intermountain West and deepening on Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday.
Shortwave upper-level ridging will develop over the West Coast On
Day 6/Sunday - Day 7/Monday before another shortwave trough flattens
the ridge on Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday. Surface high pressure
will settle into the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday
likely resulting in offshore flow across southern California.
...Day 3/Thursday: western Colorado into central Wyoming...
Critical conditions may develop under 40-50 knot mid-level flow and
ahead of a surface cold front near a strengthening pressure gradient
across western Colorado/eastern Utah into portions of central
Wyoming. South-southwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and RH values
of 10-20% are likely during the afternoon with critically dry fuels
(ERCs mostly above 80th percentile) across portions of western
Colorado, eastern Utah, and southern Wyoming. While surrounding
areas may see stronger winds/lower RH or have drier fuels, the 70%
area identifies the best overlap of the strongest winds, lowest RH,
and driest fuels.
...Day 3/Thursday - Day 6/Sunday: southern High Plains...
On Day 3/Thursday, critical conditions may develop across northeast
New Mexico into far southwest Kansas due to lee troughing amid a dry
airmass. On Day 4/Friday, a similar area may experience critical
conditions ahead of an approaching cold front sliding southward
across the Plains. Dry/windy post-frontal conditions will likely
develop on Day 6/Sunday from eastern Colorado southward into eastern
New Mexico, which could result in critical conditions. While fuels
are mostly not critically dry, fuels should be receptive enough for
fire spread given the weather conditions. However, conditions are
more likely to be elevated/locally critical given the forecast total
...Day 4/Friday - Day 8/Tuesday: southern California...
Dry, northerly offshore flow (Sundowner Winds) are expected to
develop on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday across much of Santa
Barbara and Ventura Counties. As the upper-level pattern progresses
and surface high pressure settles into the Great Basin over the
weekend, a transition from northerly to northeasterly-easterly
offshore flow will take place across southern California. This will
likely result in elevated to potentially critical conditions through
Day 7/Monday and possibly into Day 8/Tuesday. There is still enough
forecast uncertainty regarding the strength of offshore flow to
preclude introducing higher probabilities, but confidence is high
that an offshore (Santa Ana) wind event will occur over the weekend
into next week across southern California.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT