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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 18, 2019
Updated: Mon Feb 18 21:54:03 UTC 2019  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D6 19,422 92,468 Del Rio, TX...Pecos, TX...
D3Wed, Feb 20, 2019 - Thu, Feb 21, 2019 D6Sat, Feb 23, 2019 - Sun, Feb 24, 2019
D4Thu, Feb 21, 2019 - Fri, Feb 22, 2019 D7Sun, Feb 24, 2019 - Mon, Feb 25, 2019
D5Fri, Feb 22, 2019 - Sat, Feb 23, 2019 D8Mon, Feb 25, 2019 - Tue, Feb 26, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 182151

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0351 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019

   Valid 201200Z - 261200Z

   An upper-level trough will eject out of the West and over the Plains
   into the Great Lakes on Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. Another
   upper-level trough will deepen over the West on Day 4/Thursday - Day
   5/Friday as the Bermuda High builds into the Southeast. This trough
   will move eastward over the Plains on Day 6/Saturday and track
   east-northeast into the Great Lakes/Northeast by Day 8/Monday.
   Overall, much of the CONUS will experience colder temperatures and
   receive precipitation except across portions of the southern High
   Plains/West Texas during the outlook period.

   ...Day 4/Thursday - Day 6/Saturday: Southern High Plains/vicinity...

   Elevated conditions may develop on Day 3/Wednesday in portions of
   southern New Mexico/far West Texas, but cool/cold surface
   temperatures and lighter winds (10-15 mph) should preclude critical
   conditions from developing. On Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday,
   critical conditions may develop across portions of southern/eastern
   New Mexico and West Texas as the next upper-level trough moves into
   the Southwest. As the trough slowly progresses eastward, areas
   delineated for possible critical conditions will also shift
   eastward. On Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday, southwest surface winds
   of 15-25 mph with RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop across
   the southern High Plains. By Day 6/Friday, dry/windy, post-frontal
   conditions will develop across much of West Texas and spread
   east/south with westerly surface winds of 15-30 mph and RH values of
   8-25% developing during the afternoon and evening likely resulting
   in critical conditions in portions of West Texas.

   Fine fuels appear receptive to ignition/spread given recent fire
   activity and 10-hour dead fuel moisture values (mostly < 10%) across
   the southern High Plains. ERCs are still mostly near to just above
   average, although multiple days of dry/windy weather will further
   cure fuels including in areas that have received precipitation over
   the last 1-2 weeks.

   ..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: February 18, 2019
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