Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Feb 18, 2019
Updated: Mon Feb 18 21:54:03 UTC 2019 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 182151
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0351 PM CST Mon Feb 18 2019
Valid 201200Z - 261200Z
An upper-level trough will eject out of the West and over the Plains
into the Great Lakes on Day 3/Wednesday - Day 4/Thursday. Another
upper-level trough will deepen over the West on Day 4/Thursday - Day
5/Friday as the Bermuda High builds into the Southeast. This trough
will move eastward over the Plains on Day 6/Saturday and track
east-northeast into the Great Lakes/Northeast by Day 8/Monday.
Overall, much of the CONUS will experience colder temperatures and
receive precipitation except across portions of the southern High
Plains/West Texas during the outlook period.
...Day 4/Thursday - Day 6/Saturday: Southern High Plains/vicinity...
Elevated conditions may develop on Day 3/Wednesday in portions of
southern New Mexico/far West Texas, but cool/cold surface
temperatures and lighter winds (10-15 mph) should preclude critical
conditions from developing. On Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday,
critical conditions may develop across portions of southern/eastern
New Mexico and West Texas as the next upper-level trough moves into
the Southwest. As the trough slowly progresses eastward, areas
delineated for possible critical conditions will also shift
eastward. On Day 4/Thursday - Day 5/Friday, southwest surface winds
of 15-25 mph with RH values of 8-20% are likely to develop across
the southern High Plains. By Day 6/Friday, dry/windy, post-frontal
conditions will develop across much of West Texas and spread
east/south with westerly surface winds of 15-30 mph and RH values of
8-25% developing during the afternoon and evening likely resulting
in critical conditions in portions of West Texas.
Fine fuels appear receptive to ignition/spread given recent fire
activity and 10-hour dead fuel moisture values (mostly < 10%) across
the southern High Plains. ERCs are still mostly near to just above
average, although multiple days of dry/windy weather will further
cure fuels including in areas that have received precipitation over
the last 1-2 weeks.
..Nauslar.. 02/18/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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