Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Sep 17, 2018
Updated: Mon Sep 17 20:59:03 UTC 2018 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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Ogden, UT...Idaho Falls, ID...Pocatello, ID...Logan, UT...Roy, UT...
D4
9,931
16,701
Laramie, WY...Rawlins, WY...
D3
Wed, Sep 19, 2018 - Thu, Sep 20, 2018
D6
Sat, Sep 22, 2018 - Sun, Sep 23, 2018
D4
Thu, Sep 20, 2018 - Fri, Sep 21, 2018
D7
Sun, Sep 23, 2018 - Mon, Sep 24, 2018
D5
Fri, Sep 21, 2018 - Sat, Sep 22, 2018
D8
Mon, Sep 24, 2018 - Tue, Sep 25, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 172057
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0357 PM CDT Mon Sep 17 2018
Valid 191200Z - 251200Z
Fire weather concerns will continue across parts of the western U.S.
through at least Day 5/Fri. Beyond Day 5, medium range guidance has
large enough differences that predictability becomes too low to
include probabilities, but some potential may persist across the
Great Basin into the coming weekend.
...Days 3-5/Wed-Fri -- Portions of the Intermountain West...
An upper trough will track east across the Great Basin on Day 3/Wed.
This will result in strong deep layer southwesterly flow ahead of
the trough. Meanwhile, surface low pressure will deepen from the
central High Plains into the eastern Great Basin. This will aid in
the development of gusty west/southwest winds from southern ID into
parts of southwest WY, southward into parts of NV/UT and northwest
CO. The strongest winds will align with low RH conditions from
southeast ID into northeast UT, southwest WY and far northwest CO
and critical fire weather conditions are likely, surrounded by
broader, more widespread elevated conditions.
By Day 4/Thu, deep layer flow will become more westerly with
strength decreasing through the period as the upper trough ejects
eastward across the Plains and Upper Midwest. Elevated to critical
conditions still appear possible through the afternoon hours across
parts of southern WY before flow weakens considerably.
On Day 5/Fri, shortwave upper ridging will develop over the northern
Rockies ahead of another shortwave impulse moving over the Pacific
Northwest. As the shortwave trough moves onshore by late afternoon,
deep layer westerly flow will increase across the Pacific Northwest
into the western Great Basin. Breezy downslope westerly flow will
combine with continued dryness and elevated to possibly critical
conditions will be possible in the lee of the Sierra across
northeast CA into NV, as well as across southeast OR and possible
southwest ID.
..Leitman.. 09/17/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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