Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
PDF. Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics.
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 282134
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0434 PM CDT Sat Mar 28 2020
Valid 301200Z - 051200Z
An upper-level shortwave trough is forecast to move over the
Southwest and across the southern Plains into the Southeast on Day
3/Monday - Day 5/Wednesday. An associated surface cyclone will track
eastward with a trailing cold front pushing south/east into the Gulf
of Mexico. The surface low is forecast to deepen on Day 4/Tuesday
into Day 5/Wednesday as moves east/northeast over the Gulf Stream
offshore from Georgia and the Carolinas leading to a strengthening
surface pressure gradient across the area including over the Florida
Peninsula. A low amplitude upper-level trough associated with the
subtropical jet is forecast to move over the Southwest/southern High
Plains on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with a surface low and
lee troughing developing on the southern High Plains.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: southern High Plains...
On Day 3/Monday, critical conditions are likely to develop across
much of eastern New Mexico into west Texas with widespread
elevated/locally critical conditions across much of the southern
High Plains. Westerly winds (turning west-northwest in the evening)
will strengthen behind a sharpening dryline and under a mid-level
jet of 75+ knots. The 70% area was placed where strong low-level
winds overlap the low-level thermal ridge per latest guidance.
Locally extremely critical winds/RH are possible, especially across
northeast portions of the Trans-Pecos and along/east of the Davis
Mountains. While ERCs are mostly near normal and there is some
green-up occurring, 10/100-hour dead fuel moisture values are well
Typical dry/breezy conditions are likely across portions of
east-central New Mexico on Day 4/Tuesday. However, stronger
mid-level flow arrives on Day 5/Wednesday - Day 6/Thursday with lee
troughing increasing winds amid a continued dry airmass. However,
current forecast guidance suggests sub-critical conditions across
...Day 4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday: Florida Peninsula...
Elevated to locally critical conditions are possible on Day
4/Tuesday - Day 5/Wednesday across central/eastern portions of the
Florida Peninsula. A deep well-mixed boundary layer will help lower
surface RH and transport stronger winds to the surface on Day
4/Tuesday, and the surface pressure gradient will likely strengthen
as the surface low begins to deepen across Georgia.
While rain is possible Day 4/Tuesday night into Day 5/Wednesday
morning as a cold front pushes southeast, rainfall is likely to be
more isolated/scattered and light across much of the Florida
Peninsula. Dry/breezy conditions will develop behind the cold front
as winds shift to the northwest. ERCs are mostly at/above the 85th
percentile with some areas approaching the 95th percentile across
the Florida Peninsula. Additionally, lightning-ignited wildfires are
possible given the potential for thunderstorms over dry fuels.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT