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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 15, 2019
Updated: Tue Oct 15 22:01:02 UTC 2019  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 8,760 20,704 Craig, CO...
D3Thu, Oct 17, 2019 - Fri, Oct 18, 2019 D6Sun, Oct 20, 2019 - Mon, Oct 21, 2019
D4Fri, Oct 18, 2019 - Sat, Oct 19, 2019 D7Mon, Oct 21, 2019 - Tue, Oct 22, 2019
D5Sat, Oct 19, 2019 - Sun, Oct 20, 2019 D8Tue, Oct 22, 2019 - Wed, Oct 23, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 152157

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0457 PM CDT Tue Oct 15 2019

   Valid 171200Z - 231200Z

   A progressive pattern will continue across the CONUS through the
   outlook period. An upper-level trough will move over the western
   CONUS on Day 3/Thursday - Day 4/Friday with another upper-level
   trough moving southeast from the Pacific Northwest into the
   Intermountain West and deepening on Day 5/Saturday - Day 6/Sunday.
   Shortwave upper-level ridging will develop over the West Coast On
   Day 6/Sunday - Day 7/Monday before another shortwave trough flattens
   the ridge on Day 7/Monday - Day 8/Tuesday. Surface high pressure
   will settle into the Great Basin on Day 6/Sunday - Day 8/Tuesday
   likely resulting in offshore flow across southern California.

   ...Day 3/Thursday: western Colorado into central Wyoming...
   Critical conditions may develop under 40-50 knot mid-level flow and
   ahead of a surface cold front near a strengthening pressure gradient
   across western Colorado/eastern Utah into portions of central
   Wyoming. South-southwest sustained winds of 15-25 mph and RH values
   of 10-20% are likely during the afternoon with critically dry fuels
   (ERCs mostly above 80th percentile) across portions of western
   Colorado, eastern Utah, and southern Wyoming. While surrounding
   areas may see stronger winds/lower RH or have drier fuels, the 70%
   area identifies the best overlap of the strongest winds, lowest RH,
   and driest fuels.

   ...Day 3/Thursday - Day 6/Sunday: southern High Plains...
   On Day 3/Thursday, critical conditions may develop across northeast
   New Mexico into far southwest Kansas due to lee troughing amid a dry
   airmass. On Day 4/Friday, a similar area may experience critical
   conditions ahead of an approaching cold front sliding southward
   across the Plains. Dry/windy post-frontal conditions will likely
   develop on Day 6/Sunday from eastern Colorado southward into eastern
   New Mexico, which could result in critical conditions. While fuels
   are mostly not critically dry, fuels should be receptive enough for
   fire spread given the weather conditions. However, conditions are
   more likely to be elevated/locally critical given the forecast total
   fire environment.

   ...Day 4/Friday - Day 8/Tuesday: southern California...
   Dry, northerly offshore flow (Sundowner Winds) are expected to
   develop on Day 4/Friday - Day 5/Saturday across much of Santa
   Barbara and Ventura Counties. As the upper-level pattern progresses
   and surface high pressure settles into the Great Basin over the
   weekend, a transition from northerly to northeasterly-easterly
   offshore flow will take place across southern California. This will
   likely result in elevated to potentially critical conditions through
   Day 7/Monday and possibly into Day 8/Tuesday. There is still enough
   forecast uncertainty regarding the strength of offshore flow to
   preclude introducing higher probabilities, but confidence is high
   that an offshore (Santa Ana) wind event will occur over the weekend
   into next week across southern California.

   ..Nauslar.. 10/15/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 15, 2019
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