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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Oct 21, 2018
Updated: Sun Oct 21 21:29:02 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Tue, Oct 23, 2018 - Wed, Oct 24, 2018 D6Fri, Oct 26, 2018 - Sat, Oct 27, 2018
D4Wed, Oct 24, 2018 - Thu, Oct 25, 2018 D7Sat, Oct 27, 2018 - Sun, Oct 28, 2018
D5Thu, Oct 25, 2018 - Fri, Oct 26, 2018 D8Sun, Oct 28, 2018 - Mon, Oct 29, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 212127

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0427 PM CDT Sun Oct 21 2018

   Valid 231200Z - 291200Z

   A cyclonic upper-level flow pattern will prevail across the western
   CONUS during the Day 3/Tuesday period. Large scale ascent associated
   with the cyclonic flow is expected to support noticeable
   precipitation accumulations across much of the Great Basin/Four
   Corners areas, as well as along the Pacific Northwest Coast. A
   small, but vigorous embedded shortwave, with associated surface
   troughing may also induce dry/breezy southerly flow along the
   Cascades (mainly in central/southern Oregon). While fuels may be
   conducive for fire spread in this area Day 3, the marginal nature of
   the surface wind/RH conditions precludes any probability
   delineations. 

   From Days 4-8/Wednesday-Sunday, a strong upper-level ridge will
   develop across the western CONUS. Strong mid-level flow, with
   embedded shortwave troughs, and periods of accumulating
   precipitation, will traverse the ridge, from the Pacific Northwest,
   to the Northern/Central Rockies regions. Some model guidance
   suggests very strong, post-frontal surface winds, with seasonably
   warm temperatures and near-critical RH may occur from central
   Montana, eastward into the northwestern High Plains on Day 6/Friday,
   but lack of agreement among multiple models in timing/spatial
   placement of favorable surface fire weather conditions reduces
   confidence in delineating probabilities at this time. Future
   precipitation accumulation associated with the aforementioned
   mid-level shortwave troughs leading up to Day 6, as well as the
   evolution of finer fuels, will also play considerable roles in later
   forecasts.

   ..Squitieri.. 10/21/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: October 21, 2018
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