Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 25, 2019
Updated: Sat May 25 20:55:03 UTC 2019 (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in
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El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...
D3
Mon, May 27, 2019 - Tue, May 28, 2019
D6
Thu, May 30, 2019 - Fri, May 31, 2019
D4
Tue, May 28, 2019 - Wed, May 29, 2019
D7
Fri, May 31, 2019 - Sat, Jun 01, 2019
D5
Wed, May 29, 2019 - Thu, May 30, 2019
D8
Sat, Jun 01, 2019 - Sun, Jun 02, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 252052
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0352 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019
Valid 271200Z - 021200Z
...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of the Southwest into the
Southern High Plains...
Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur on Day 3/Monday
across parts of southern/central NM and far west TX as a upper
trough/low moves eastward from the Great Basin towards the central
Rockies. A strong mid-level west-southwesterly jet will overlie much
of AZ/NM and the adjacent southern High Plains Monday afternoon, and
strong/gusty surface winds will occur along with lowered RH values.
Critical meteorological conditions will probably extend east of the
current 70%/critical delineation, but less receptive fuels across
eastern NM into west TX preclude an even larger area.
As this upper trough/low ejects northeastward across the Plains on
Day 4/Tuesday, lingering enhancement to the low and mid-level flow
may lead to some increase in fire weather concerns across parts of
eastern NM and far west TX. 40%/marginal probabilities have been
introduced across this area to account for this potential.
...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Portions of the Southeast...
A dry low-level airmass will remain across parts of Southeast
through much of the extended forecast period. At this time, it
appears that surface winds should remain weak beneath prominent
upper ridging though Day 4/Tuesday. An increase in low-level winds
may occur over some portion of this dry airmass on both Day
5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as an upper trough moves across the
Upper Midwest and OH Valley. If model agreement increases in the
strength/placement of these low-level winds, probabilities may be
needed for some portion of the Southeast in this time frame given
the lack of recent precipitation and very receptive fuels that will
be present.
..Gleason.. 05/25/2019
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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