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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 10, 2018
Updated: Mon Dec 10 19:06:03 UTC 2018  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Population Cities CWAs Interstates Counties FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
D3Wed, Dec 12, 2018 - Thu, Dec 13, 2018 D6Sat, Dec 15, 2018 - Sun, Dec 16, 2018
D4Thu, Dec 13, 2018 - Fri, Dec 14, 2018 D7Sun, Dec 16, 2018 - Mon, Dec 17, 2018
D5Fri, Dec 14, 2018 - Sat, Dec 15, 2018 D8Mon, Dec 17, 2018 - Tue, Dec 18, 2018
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   FNUS28 KWNS 101904

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0104 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018

   Valid 121200Z - 181200Z

   A strong trough will develop into a closed low over the southern
   Plains later this week. This will be the primary impactful feature
   on fire weather for the long term period. Recent wetting rainfall
   will preclude the fire weather risk for many areas, including most
   of California.

   ...D3/Wednesday - Eastern New Mexico into western Texas...
   Lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado will lead to strengthening
   westerly low-level flow across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
   during the day on Wednesday. In addition, deep mixing and increasing
   mid-level flow will help to strengthen this low-level flow during
   the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to peak around 25 to 30 mph.
   RH values will likely be around 25 to 30 percent which will preclude
   the need to add probabilities. In addition, a quarter to a half an
   inch of precipitation has fallen across this area over the past 7
   days which will likely lead to unreceptive fuels.

   ...D4/5-Thursday/Friday - Southern Texas...
   A strong mid-level jet will dig into southern Texas during the day
   on Thursday. Where deep mixing is strongest, in the wake of the
   surface front, northwest winds may strengthen to as strong as 30 to
   40 mph. However, RH values will likely stay above 20 to 25 percent
   and most of this area has seen significant rainfall over the past 7
   days. The only area which has been somewhat dry recently is far
   southern Texas, along the Mexican border west of Brownsville.
   Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions may be possible in this
   area, but given the small area, uncertainties about fuel
   receptiveness, and the potential for some rainfall with the frontal
   passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning, no probabilities will be
   included at this time.

   ...D6/Saturday - Texas Panhandle...
   Lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado again on Saturday may lead to
   increasing flow across much of the Texas panhandle. Questions about
   fuel receptiveness, precipitation between now and then, and the
   marginal nature of the RH values and temperatures preclude the
   addition of probabilities at this time, but the conditions will
   continue to me monitored.

   ..Bentley.. 12/10/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: December 10, 2018
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