Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on Dec 10, 2018
Updated: Mon Dec 10 19:06:03 UTC 2018 (Print Version)
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ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
FNUS28 KWNS 101904
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0104 PM CST Mon Dec 10 2018
Valid 121200Z - 181200Z
A strong trough will develop into a closed low over the southern
Plains later this week. This will be the primary impactful feature
on fire weather for the long term period. Recent wetting rainfall
will preclude the fire weather risk for many areas, including most
of California.
...D3/Wednesday - Eastern New Mexico into western Texas...
Lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado will lead to strengthening
westerly low-level flow across New Mexico and the Texas Panhandle
during the day on Wednesday. In addition, deep mixing and increasing
mid-level flow will help to strengthen this low-level flow during
the afternoon hours. Winds are expected to peak around 25 to 30 mph.
RH values will likely be around 25 to 30 percent which will preclude
the need to add probabilities. In addition, a quarter to a half an
inch of precipitation has fallen across this area over the past 7
days which will likely lead to unreceptive fuels.
...D4/5-Thursday/Friday - Southern Texas...
A strong mid-level jet will dig into southern Texas during the day
on Thursday. Where deep mixing is strongest, in the wake of the
surface front, northwest winds may strengthen to as strong as 30 to
40 mph. However, RH values will likely stay above 20 to 25 percent
and most of this area has seen significant rainfall over the past 7
days. The only area which has been somewhat dry recently is far
southern Texas, along the Mexican border west of Brownsville.
Therefore, elevated fire weather conditions may be possible in this
area, but given the small area, uncertainties about fuel
receptiveness, and the potential for some rainfall with the frontal
passage Wednesday night/Thursday morning, no probabilities will be
included at this time.
...D6/Saturday - Texas Panhandle...
Lee cyclogenesis in southeast Colorado again on Saturday may lead to
increasing flow across much of the Texas panhandle. Questions about
fuel receptiveness, precipitation between now and then, and the
marginal nature of the RH values and temperatures preclude the
addition of probabilities at this time, but the conditions will
continue to me monitored.
..Bentley.. 12/10/2018
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
$$
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