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< Day 2 FW Outlook    
Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook Issued on May 25, 2019
Updated: Sat May 25 20:55:03 UTC 2019  (Print Version)
Note: Fire weather probabilistic information in MS-Word or PDF.
Note: Through September 29, 2015 the SPC will issue Experimental Probabilistic Fire Weather Dry Thunder and Strong Wind Outlooks for Days 3 to 8 with individual web graphics. Mouse over or click on the tabs above the graphic to view daily Probabilistic Dry Thunder (DryT) and Strong Wind (Wind) Fire Weather Outlooks. Please read the Product Description Document (PDD) and provide feedback using this link: "http://www.weather.gov/survey/nws-survey.php?code=spc38firewx.
Categorical D3-8 FW Otlk D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
Exp. DryT/LowRH/Wind D3 D4 D5 D6 D7 D8
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
D3 56,073 1,334,541 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Roswell, NM...Alamogordo, NM...Socorro, TX...
D3Mon, May 27, 2019 - Tue, May 28, 2019 D6Thu, May 30, 2019 - Fri, May 31, 2019
D4Tue, May 28, 2019 - Wed, May 29, 2019 D7Fri, May 31, 2019 - Sat, Jun 01, 2019
D5Wed, May 29, 2019 - Thu, May 30, 2019 D8Sat, Jun 01, 2019 - Sun, Jun 02, 2019
(All days are valid from 12 UTC - 12 UTC)
   ZCZC SPCFWDD38 ALL
   FNUS28 KWNS 252052

   Day 3-8 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0352 PM CDT Sat May 25 2019

   Valid 271200Z - 021200Z

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 4/Tuesday: Portions of the Southwest into the
   Southern High Plains...
   Critical fire weather conditions will likely occur on Day 3/Monday
   across parts of southern/central NM and far west TX as a upper
   trough/low moves eastward from the Great Basin towards the central
   Rockies. A strong mid-level west-southwesterly jet will overlie much
   of AZ/NM and the adjacent southern High Plains Monday afternoon, and
   strong/gusty surface winds will occur along with lowered RH values.
   Critical meteorological conditions will probably extend east of the
   current 70%/critical delineation, but less receptive fuels across
   eastern NM into west TX preclude an even larger area.

   As this upper trough/low ejects northeastward across the Plains on
   Day 4/Tuesday, lingering enhancement to the low and mid-level flow
   may lead to some increase in fire weather concerns across parts of
   eastern NM and far west TX. 40%/marginal probabilities have been
   introduced across this area to account for this potential.

   ...Day 3/Monday - Day 6/Thursday: Portions of the Southeast...
   A dry low-level airmass will remain across parts of Southeast
   through much of the extended forecast period. At this time, it
   appears that surface winds should remain weak beneath prominent
   upper ridging though Day 4/Tuesday. An increase in low-level winds
   may occur over some portion of this dry airmass on both Day
   5/Wednesday and Day 6/Thursday as an upper trough moves across the
   Upper Midwest and OH Valley. If model agreement increases in the
   strength/placement of these low-level winds, probabilities may be
   needed for some portion of the Southeast in this time frame given
   the lack of recent precipitation and very receptive fuels that will
   be present.

   ..Gleason.. 05/25/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   $$

   CLICK TO GET FNUS38 KWNS PFWF38 FIRE WEATHER OUTLOOK DAY 3-8 AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT
      
Fire Wx Graphics | Links | Product Info | Fire Weather Composite Maps (updated 4 times daily)

To retrieve previous Day 3-8 FireWX outlooks, type in the date you wish to retrieve in YYMMDD (e.g., 060205 for Feb. 5, 2006).
Data available since January 1, 2006.
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Page last modified: May 25, 2019
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