Las Cruces, NM...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...Grants, NM...Socorro, NM...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL
FNUS21 KWNS 100552
Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021
Valid 101200Z - 111200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF WESTERN NEW MEXICO...
A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will continue to
move across the eastern CONUS, with ample low-level moisture and
widespread precipitation limiting major wildfire spread concerns
across much of the Mississippi Valley towards the Appalachians.
Another mid-level trough will deepen across the northern Rockies,
promoting dry downslope flow across much of the northern into the
central High Plains. Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will
also overspread a dry boundary layer across the southwest U.S,
promoting surface conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Lastly,
dry, occasionally breezy conditions are expected around afternoon
peak heating across portions of the Florida Peninsula, before
isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms arrive.
...Portions of the Southwest U.S...
By afternoon, adequate diurnal heating will promote RH values
dropping to the 10-20% range across much of central and eastern
Arizona into central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Efficient
downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow is expected to
support widespread 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds.
Guidance consensus depicts the best overlap of critically low RH and
sustained 20+ mph westerly surface winds across western New Mexico,
where a Critical area has been delineated. Critical conditions are
most likely across lower-terrain areas, where fuels are most
receptive of wildfire spread.
By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 25-35%
range across central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.
At the same time, surface lee troughing is expected to encourage a
strong enough surface mass response for a relatively stronger
surface wind field to develop. During this period, and before
thunderstorms develop or move into the area, there is a multi-hour
window of opportunity where 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly
surface winds may coincide with the aforementioned RH to foster
favorable wildfire-spread conditions. An Elevated area has been
maintained to address this concern given that fuels remain receptive
to fire spread.
...Northern High Plains...
With the approach of an upper trough, downslope flow is expected to
promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with
15-25% RH during the afternoon hours. At least locally Elevated
conditions are likely from the Laramie Mountains to the
Montana/North Dakota/Canada border, potentially expanding as far
east as the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. At the
moment, the primary mitigating factor for adding an Elevated area is
the lack of stronger surface winds on a more widespread basis.
However, given the receptiveness of fuels (especially in eastern
Montana into western North Dakota), an Elevated area may be added in
the Day 1 update should guidance show any increasing trends for wind
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK FOR DAY 1 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD1)