Skip Navigation Links 
NOAA logo-Select to go to the NOAA homepage NOAA's National Weather Service   Select to go to the NWS homepage
Storm Prediction Center
navigation bar left  
  navigation bar end cap is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.

    Day 2 FW Outlook >
Apr 10, 2021 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Sat Apr 10 05:54:07 UTC 2021 (Print Version | 20210410 1200Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20210410 1200Z Day 1 FireWX KML)
Day 1 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA  Tribal  Day 1 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 30,112 258,188 Las Cruces, NM...Deming, NM...Silver City, NM...Grants, NM...Socorro, NM...
   FNUS21 KWNS 100552

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1252 AM CDT Sat Apr 10 2021

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z


   A mid-level trough and associated surface cyclone will continue to
   move across the eastern CONUS, with ample low-level moisture and
   widespread precipitation limiting major wildfire spread concerns
   across much of the Mississippi Valley towards the Appalachians.
   Another mid-level trough will deepen across the northern Rockies,
   promoting dry downslope flow across much of the northern into the
   central High Plains. Strong west-northwesterly mid-level flow will
   also overspread a dry boundary layer across the southwest U.S,
   promoting surface conditions favorable for wildfire spread. Lastly,
   dry, occasionally breezy conditions are expected around afternoon
   peak heating across portions of the Florida Peninsula, before
   isolated to potentially scattered thunderstorms arrive.

   ...Portions of the Southwest U.S...
   By afternoon, adequate diurnal heating will promote RH values
   dropping to the 10-20% range across much of central and eastern
   Arizona into central New Mexico and Far West Texas. Efficient
   downward momentum transport of the mid-level flow is expected to
   support widespread 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds.
   Guidance consensus depicts the best overlap of critically low RH and
   sustained 20+ mph westerly surface winds across western New Mexico,
   where a Critical area has been delineated. Critical conditions are
   most likely across lower-terrain areas, where fuels are most
   receptive of wildfire spread. 

   ...Florida Peninsula...
   By afternoon peak heating, RH is expected to drop into the 25-35%
   range across central and eastern portions of the Florida Peninsula.
   At the same time, surface lee troughing is expected to encourage a
   strong enough surface mass response for a relatively stronger
   surface wind field to develop. During this period, and before
   thunderstorms develop or move into the area, there is a multi-hour
   window of opportunity where 15+ mph sustained west-southwesterly
   surface winds may coincide with the aforementioned RH to foster
   favorable wildfire-spread conditions. An Elevated area has been
   maintained to address this concern given that fuels remain receptive
   to fire spread.  

   ...Northern High Plains...
   With the approach of an upper trough, downslope flow is expected to
   promote 15-25 mph sustained westerly surface winds coinciding with
   15-25% RH during the afternoon hours. At least locally Elevated
   conditions are likely from the Laramie Mountains to the
   Montana/North Dakota/Canada border, potentially expanding as far
   east as the western Dakotas into the Nebraska Panhandle. At the
   moment, the primary mitigating factor for adding an Elevated area is
   the lack of stronger surface winds on a more widespread basis.
   However, given the receptiveness of fuels (especially in eastern
   Montana into western North Dakota), an Elevated area may be added in
   the Day 1 update should guidance show any increasing trends for wind

   ..Squitieri.. 04/10/2021

   ...Please see for graphic product...

Related Fire Weather Web Links
Top/Forecast Products/Home
Weather Topics:
Watches, Mesoscale Discussions, Outlooks, Fire Weather, All Products, Contact Us

NOAA / National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
Storm Prediction Center
120 David L. Boren Blvd.
Norman, OK 73072 U.S.A.
Page last modified: April 10, 2021
Information Quality
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities