Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Sat Sep 21 16:33:03 UTC 2019 (20190921 1700Z Day 1 FireWX shapefile | 20190921 1700Z Day 1 FireWX KML)

Day 1 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 1 FireWX Areal Outline Product

   FNUS21 KWNS 211632

   Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019

   Valid 211700Z - 221200Z

   ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains...
   16Z surface observations indicate that spotty elevated conditions
   have already developed across portions of northwest AZ and also
   across southern CO/northern NM. Elevated conditions will become more
   widespread this afternoon, with locally critical conditions
   possible. The previous Elevated delineations have been maintained in
   this update -- see the previous discussion below for more

   ..Dean.. 09/21/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/

   A highly amplified upper-level trough located over much the
   Intermountain West will shift eastward into the central/northern
   Plains today while ridging develops in its wake across the northern
   Great Basin. Within the base of the trough, a mid-level short-wave
   trough, accompanied by enhanced mid-level flow, will quickly move
   across portions of the Southwest into the central/southern High

   ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains...
   As the aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow overspreads the area
   in combination with diurnal heating, vertical mixing will allow
   winds near the surface to reach sustained speeds of 15-20 mph during
   the afternoon. A dry, post frontal airmass resides over much of the
   region, and thus RH values will fall into the teens amidst fuels
   that remain receptive to large-fire spread. 

   Two areas have been highlighted for delineating elevated
   fire-weather potential, the first being a continuation of the
   previous forecast over portions of southern Colorado and
   northeastern New Mexico, with a minor expansion made to account for
   greater areal coverage of wind/RH threshold exceedance. A second
   area was added farther west across portions of northwest New Mexico
   into east-central Arizona, where better agreement exists in the
   wind/RH combo among the latest high-resolution deterministic- and
   ensemble-based guidance.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


Fire Weather/Forecast Products/Home