Storm Prediction Center Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Sat Sep 21 16:33:03 UTC 2019 ( | )
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ZCZC SPCFWDDY1 ALL FNUS21 KWNS 211632 Day 1 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1132 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019 Valid 211700Z - 221200Z ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains... 16Z surface observations indicate that spotty elevated conditions have already developed across portions of northwest AZ and also across southern CO/northern NM. Elevated conditions will become more widespread this afternoon, with locally critical conditions possible. The previous Elevated delineations have been maintained in this update -- see the previous discussion below for more information. ..Dean.. 09/21/2019 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1242 AM CDT Sat Sep 21 2019/ ...Synopsis... A highly amplified upper-level trough located over much the Intermountain West will shift eastward into the central/northern Plains today while ridging develops in its wake across the northern Great Basin. Within the base of the trough, a mid-level short-wave trough, accompanied by enhanced mid-level flow, will quickly move across portions of the Southwest into the central/southern High Plains. ...Portions of the Southwest and Central/Southern High Plains... As the aforementioned enhanced mid-level flow overspreads the area in combination with diurnal heating, vertical mixing will allow winds near the surface to reach sustained speeds of 15-20 mph during the afternoon. A dry, post frontal airmass resides over much of the region, and thus RH values will fall into the teens amidst fuels that remain receptive to large-fire spread. Two areas have been highlighted for delineating elevated fire-weather potential, the first being a continuation of the previous forecast over portions of southern Colorado and northeastern New Mexico, with a minor expansion made to account for greater areal coverage of wind/RH threshold exceedance. A second area was added farther west across portions of northwest New Mexico into east-central Arizona, where better agreement exists in the wind/RH combo among the latest high-resolution deterministic- and ensemble-based guidance. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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