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< Day 1 FW Outlook   Day 3 - 8 FW Outlook >
May 21, 2019 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Tue May 21 18:11:02 UTC 2019 (Print Version | 20190521 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20190521 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Critical 18,500 1,015,595 El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Deming, NM...Sunland Park, NM...
   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 211810

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0110 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
   AND FAR WEST TEXAS...

   Northern portions of the Elevated fire weather area over central New
   Mexico were trimmed where AHPS precipitation analysis suggests up to
   0.5 inches occurred over the past 24 hours. In addition, the
   Elevated fire weather area was also removed from the Sacramento
   Mountains and vicinity, as cooler temperatures at higher elevations
   should keep minimum surface RH values from falling below regional
   thresholds.  

   Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no other changes
   needed at this time. While expansion of the Critical fire weather
   area remains possible in a future outlook, the latest fuel guidance
   continues to indicate fuels are only marginally receptive to
   large-scale fires outside of the current Critical area.

   See previous discussion below for more information.

   ..Elliott.. 05/21/2019

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level speed max will pivot through the base of trough over the
   Great Basin region on D2/Wednesday. Surface low pressure will
   dominate the central/western portions of the CONUS. Another day of
   dry and windy conditions are expected across the southern Rockies
   and southern High Plains. A more meridional trough will shift
   surface winds to more southerly, downsloping off of the Sierra Madre
   Occidental. Afternoon RH will range from 5-20% across much of New
   Mexico and adjacent West Texas. As compared to previous days, the
   jet core will lag farther west and lead to slightly lighter, but
   still critical, winds of 20-25 mph. A few areas closer to the jet
   core in Arizona may experience peak winds nearer to 30 mph. Elevated
   fire weather concerns, due to sub-optimal fuels, will exist from far
   southeastern Arizona into central/southern New Mexico and the
   Trans-Pecos. Across southern New Mexico and far West Texas, another
   round of critical fire weather concerns can be expected as
   critically dry fuels and near above normal ERCs will more readily
   support fire spread.

   After several days of elevated/critical fire weather, fuel
   loading/dryness my be closer to critical levels than anticipated.
   Current SWCC/TICC guidance still does not suggest that broader
   critical concerns will materialize. However, newer fuel guidance may
   lead to expansion of the critical area in future outlooks.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

   CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)

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Page last modified: May 21, 2019
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