El Paso, TX...Las Cruces, NM...Socorro, TX...Deming, NM...Sunland Park, NM...
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 211810
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0110 PM CDT Tue May 21 2019
Valid 221200Z - 231200Z
...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER AREA FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND FAR WEST TEXAS...
Northern portions of the Elevated fire weather area over central New
Mexico were trimmed where AHPS precipitation analysis suggests up to
0.5 inches occurred over the past 24 hours. In addition, the
Elevated fire weather area was also removed from the Sacramento
Mountains and vicinity, as cooler temperatures at higher elevations
should keep minimum surface RH values from falling below regional
Otherwise, the forecast remains on track with no other changes
needed at this time. While expansion of the Critical fire weather
area remains possible in a future outlook, the latest fuel guidance
continues to indicate fuels are only marginally receptive to
large-scale fires outside of the current Critical area.
See previous discussion below for more information.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0203 AM CDT Tue May 21 2019/
A mid-level speed max will pivot through the base of trough over the
Great Basin region on D2/Wednesday. Surface low pressure will
dominate the central/western portions of the CONUS. Another day of
dry and windy conditions are expected across the southern Rockies
and southern High Plains. A more meridional trough will shift
surface winds to more southerly, downsloping off of the Sierra Madre
Occidental. Afternoon RH will range from 5-20% across much of New
Mexico and adjacent West Texas. As compared to previous days, the
jet core will lag farther west and lead to slightly lighter, but
still critical, winds of 20-25 mph. A few areas closer to the jet
core in Arizona may experience peak winds nearer to 30 mph. Elevated
fire weather concerns, due to sub-optimal fuels, will exist from far
southeastern Arizona into central/southern New Mexico and the
Trans-Pecos. Across southern New Mexico and far West Texas, another
round of critical fire weather concerns can be expected as
critically dry fuels and near above normal ERCs will more readily
support fire spread.
After several days of elevated/critical fire weather, fuel
loading/dryness my be closer to critical levels than anticipated.
Current SWCC/TICC guidance still does not suggest that broader
critical concerns will materialize. However, newer fuel guidance may
lead to expansion of the critical area in future outlooks.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)