ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
FNUS22 KWNS 081944
Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020
Valid 091200Z - 101200Z
...NO CRITICAL AREAS...
Strong winds and dry air will be present across Nebraska and
portions of northern Kansas tomorrow. Boundary-layer mixing should
be more muted than it has been today. With temperatures most likely
struggling to make it out of the 50s F, fire weather concerns should
be similarly decreased. Within portions of the Piedmont region,
precipitation this afternoon and tonight remains a concern and
highlights will be withheld until those details are more clear.
Previous discussion contains further details.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020/
The mid-level low meandering across the southwest CONUS on Day 1
will linger across the area through the Day 2/Thursday period.
Modest surface troughing across the southwest CONUS may encourage
dry and breezy conditions for portions of New Mexico. Meanwhile, a
mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it progresses along the
East Coast, with 100+ knot 500 mb flow and 40+ knot 850 mb flow
overlapping a relatively dry post-frontal airmass. Despite the
potential for accumulating rainfall across portions of the East
Coast, areas that receive minimal precipitation may experience
conditions that are at least modestly supportive of fire spread
given the strong wind fields aloft overspreading a mixing boundary
...East Coast region...
By afternoon, the boundary layer may mix up to 850 mb, promoting the
stronger winds to transport downward to the surface, where sustained
westerly winds may exceed 15 mph in several locales. Given the
recent passage of a cold front, dry low-level air will be in place,
with 25-35% RH expected from the Mid Atlantic to the Georgia/Florida
border. While such conditions typically necessitate at least an
elevated delineation, the potential for appreciable accumulating
precipitation across much of the region lowers confidence as to
which areas should be highlighted. Current model consensus suggests
that the Carolinas are most likely to see a precipitation minimum
through Day 2, and a favorable wind/RH overlap for an elevated
delineation. Still, more consistency in guidance is desired before
any delineations are introduced.
By afternoon peak heating, a well-mixed boundary layer will likely
encourage RH dropping to 15-20% across much of central New Mexico.
The aforementioned surface troughing, and channeling of flow through
terrain favoring areas, may support brief periods of localized
elevated conditions across central and northern portions of the
state. The localized and brief nature of the conditions precludes an
elevated area at this time.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
CLICK FOR DAY 2 FIREWX AREAL OUTLINE PRODUCT (KWNSPFWFD2)