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Apr 8, 2020 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Updated: Wed Apr 8 19:45:03 UTC 2020 (Print Version | 20200408 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20200408 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)
Day 2 Fire
 Pop.  Cities  CWAs  RFCs  Interstates  Counties  ARTCC  FEMA Regions  Day 2 Surface Analysis

Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   FNUS22 KWNS 081944

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0244 PM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z


   Strong winds and dry air will be present across Nebraska and
   portions of northern Kansas tomorrow. Boundary-layer mixing should
   be more muted than it has been today. With temperatures most likely
   struggling to make it out of the 50s F, fire weather concerns should
   be similarly decreased. Within portions of the Piedmont region,
   precipitation this afternoon and tonight remains a concern and
   highlights will be withheld until those details are more clear.
   Previous discussion contains further details.

   ..Wendt.. 04/08/2020

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0152 AM CDT Wed Apr 08 2020/

   The mid-level low meandering across the southwest CONUS on Day 1
   will linger across the area through the Day 2/Thursday period.
   Modest surface troughing across the southwest CONUS may encourage
   dry and breezy conditions for portions of New Mexico.  Meanwhile, a
   mid-level trough will continue to deepen as it progresses along the
   East Coast, with 100+ knot 500 mb flow and 40+ knot 850 mb flow
   overlapping a relatively dry post-frontal airmass. Despite the
   potential for accumulating rainfall across portions of the East
   Coast, areas that receive minimal precipitation may experience
   conditions that are at least modestly supportive of fire spread
   given the strong wind fields aloft overspreading a mixing boundary

   ...East Coast region...
   By afternoon, the boundary layer may mix up to 850 mb, promoting the
   stronger winds to transport downward to the surface, where sustained
   westerly winds may exceed 15 mph in several locales. Given the
   recent passage of a cold front, dry low-level air will be in place,
   with 25-35% RH expected from the Mid Atlantic to the Georgia/Florida
   border. While such conditions typically necessitate at least an
   elevated delineation, the potential for appreciable accumulating
   precipitation across much of the region lowers confidence as to
   which areas should be highlighted. Current model consensus suggests
   that the Carolinas are most likely to see a precipitation minimum
   through Day 2, and a favorable wind/RH overlap for an elevated
   delineation. Still, more consistency in guidance is desired before
   any delineations are introduced.

   ...New Mexico...
   By afternoon peak heating, a well-mixed boundary layer will likely
   encourage RH dropping to 15-20% across much of central New Mexico.
   The aforementioned surface troughing, and channeling of flow through
   terrain favoring areas, may support brief periods of localized
   elevated conditions across central and northern portions of the
   state. The localized and brief nature of the conditions precludes an
   elevated area at this time.

   ...Please see for graphic product...


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