Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook

Created: Mon Aug 20 19:13:02 UTC 2018 (20180820 2000Z Day 2 FireWX shapefile | 20180820 2000Z Day 2 FireWX KML)

Day 2 Fire Weather Forecast graphic
Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast

Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)

   ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL
   FNUS22 KWNS 201911

   Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0211 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018

   Valid 211200Z - 221200Z

   The ongoing forecast is on track, with only minimal southward
   adjustments to the ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across far
   northern California and far northern Nevada based on latest trends
   in high-resolution guidance.  See the previous discussion below for
   more details.

   ..Cook.. 08/20/2018

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-level trough across the northwestern CONUS will weaken and
   evolve into a mid-level cut-off low across the northwest Great Basin
   towards the end of Day 2/Tuesday. At the surface, higher pressure
   will become established across north-central portions of the Great
   Basin into the central Rockies, with a weakening surface low across
   the Pacific Northwest. Available mid-level moisture will continue to
   support the development of at least isolated thunderstorm activity
   across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great
   Basin.

   ...Portions of Nevada...
   Elevated delineations were added to areas along the
   California/Nevada border to the lee of the Sierras, and portions of
   east central Nevada. In both of these regions, a well mixed boundary
   layer will be realized by peak heating during the afternoon. In the
   western delineation, 15-20 mph will result from downslope flow along
   the eastern Sierras along with critically low RH. A well mixed
   boundary layer up to 600 mb will allow for stronger flow aloft to
   mix to the surface, with 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds and
   critically low RH expected in the eastern elevated delineation.
   Here, locally critical conditions may also occur during the late
   afternoon/early evening hours.

   ...Pacific Northwest...
   At least isolated thunderstorms will develop along the northern
   periphery of a weakening surface low during the late afternoon hours
   on Day 2/Tuesday. An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added
   for areas where the greatest concentration of dry strikes are
   expected, and where fuels are very receptive to fire spread.

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...

      

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