Storm Prediction Center Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook
Created: Mon Aug 20 19:13:02 UTC 2018 ( | )
Click for Day 2 FireWX Areal Outline Product (KWNSPFWFD2)
ZCZC SPCFWDDY2 ALL FNUS22 KWNS 201911 Day 2 Fire Weather Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 0211 PM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018 Valid 211200Z - 221200Z The ongoing forecast is on track, with only minimal southward adjustments to the ongoing isolated dry thunderstorm area across far northern California and far northern Nevada based on latest trends in high-resolution guidance. See the previous discussion below for more details. ..Cook.. 08/20/2018 .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 0202 AM CDT Mon Aug 20 2018/ ...Synopsis... A mid-level trough across the northwestern CONUS will weaken and evolve into a mid-level cut-off low across the northwest Great Basin towards the end of Day 2/Tuesday. At the surface, higher pressure will become established across north-central portions of the Great Basin into the central Rockies, with a weakening surface low across the Pacific Northwest. Available mid-level moisture will continue to support the development of at least isolated thunderstorm activity across portions of the Pacific Northwest into the northern Great Basin. ...Portions of Nevada... Elevated delineations were added to areas along the California/Nevada border to the lee of the Sierras, and portions of east central Nevada. In both of these regions, a well mixed boundary layer will be realized by peak heating during the afternoon. In the western delineation, 15-20 mph will result from downslope flow along the eastern Sierras along with critically low RH. A well mixed boundary layer up to 600 mb will allow for stronger flow aloft to mix to the surface, with 15-25 mph sustained southwesterly winds and critically low RH expected in the eastern elevated delineation. Here, locally critical conditions may also occur during the late afternoon/early evening hours. ...Pacific Northwest... At least isolated thunderstorms will develop along the northern periphery of a weakening surface low during the late afternoon hours on Day 2/Tuesday. An isolated dry thunderstorm delineation was added for areas where the greatest concentration of dry strikes are expected, and where fuels are very receptive to fire spread. ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov/fire for graphic product...
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