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Mesoscale Discussion 1778
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1778
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0126 PM CST Mon Dec 04 2017

   Areas affected...Southeast KS...northeast OK...northwest
   AR...southwest to northeast MO...and part of western IL...and
   southeast IA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 041926Z - 042100Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...Thunderstorms are expected to develop by late afternoon
   along a cold front advancing east/southeast through eastern KS and
   western MO.  Damaging winds will be the primary severe-weather
   threat into the early evening, with a marginal risk for a tornado,
   as storms continue to form along this boundary sweeping across this

   DISCUSSION...Despite cloudiness observed on visible satellite
   imagery across much of eastern KS and far eastern OK into AR and MO,
   there is likely filtered sunshine occurring within thinner areas of
   cirrus clouds in eastern KS to western/central MO.  This is boosting
   surface temperatures to well above normal as dew points climb into
   the upper 50s across much of the discussion area, with values into
   the lower 60s from eastern OK into southeast KS.  As steepening
   midlevel lapse rates spread east, with the approach of a central
   Plains trough, surface-based CAPE is expected reach near 1000 J/kg
   within a narrow corridor just ahead of the front.

   Forcing for ascent with the front and as the trough advances east
   will further weaken any remaining low-mid level capping evident in
   12Z soundings for storms to form.  Some deepening of cumulus clouds
   has already been noted just ahead of the front in northwest MO to
   east-central KS.  Effective bulk shear is already sufficient for
   organized storms (35-40 kt), though further strengthening of
   west/southwesterly 500-mb winds is expected into the evening,
   supporting the eastward progression of the cold front across the
   narrow instability corridor.  This shear combined with vertically
   veering and strengthening of winds in the low-levels, per recent
   area WSR-88D VWPs, suggests a tornado threat cannot be ruled out. 
   The strength of the low-level winds favor a risk for damaging winds.

   ..Peters/Thompson.. 12/04/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   36389530 38239422 39659343 40499279 40919215 40929166
               40769115 40169081 38619150 36489249 35249311 34509384
               34289435 34479505 34669547 35219560 35509575 36389530 

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