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Mesoscale Discussion 1783
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1783
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0122 AM CST Tue Dec 05 2017

   Areas affected...Portions of far eastern Texas...central/northern

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 050722Z - 050845Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...5 percent

   SUMMARY...A brief tornado could occur over the next 1-2 hours.
   However, the threat should be relatively transient/confined,
   precluding watch issuance.

   DISCUSSION...Regional radar data illustrate a cluster of convective
   cells from eastern Texas to northern Louisiana early this morning,
   ahead of a cold front pushing southeast across the Arklatex.
   Developing within a modest low-level warm-advection/confluent
   regime, these cells are likely being aided by a weak southern-stream
   impulse currently crossing the upper Texas coast. KPOE VWP data
   depict some veering with height through the lowest 2 km, with 0-1km
   storm-relative helicity around 150 m2/s2. Several of these cells
   have occasionally exhibited weak rotation, and this trend may
   continue for the next hour or two. Therefore, despite weak buoyancy
   (evidenced by a lack of CG lightning), a favorably moist boundary
   layer may support a brief tornado. However, as low-level flow
   continues to veer this morning, this potential should diminish with
   decreasing shear.

   ..Picca/Guyer.. 12/05/2017

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   31039460 32039326 32109250 32019193 31709153 31339148
               31169164 30769311 30589447 31039460 

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