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Mesoscale Discussion 58
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0058
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1025 AM CST Wed Feb 07 2018

   Areas affected...Pennsylvania...New York...New England

   Concerning...Winter mixed precipitation 

   Valid 071625Z - 072230Z

   SUMMARY...Heavy snowfall will be possible from late this morning
   into this afternoon from northern Pennsylvania east northeastward
   across much of central and northern New York into New England.
   Freezing rain will be likely in central Pennsylvania with a snow to
   freezing rain transition taking place from southeast New York into
   southern New England late this morning into this afternoon.

   DISCUSSION...The latest water vapor imagery shows an upper-level
   trough over the western Great Lakes region with strong west to
   southwest mid-level flow located across the Northeast. A 90 to 100
   kt mid-level jet max is analyzed by the RAP across the lower Great
   Lakes. In addition, the exit region of a 60 to 70 kt low-level jet
   is analyzed across northern Pennsylvania and central New York. These
   two features are enhancing large-scale ascent across southwestern
   parts of the MCD area. In response, widespread winter precipitation
   is ongoing from Pennsylvania east northeastward into southern New
   England. Forecast soundings suggest that thermal profiles are cold
   enough for snow in northern Pennsylvania, central New York and
   across much of New England where 1 inch per hour snowfall rates will
   be possible through this afternoon.

   Further to the south across central Pennsylvania and southern New
   York, forecast soundings show a warm layer near 850 mb. This
   combined with surface temperatures near or below freezing will be
   favorable for freezing rain. As the low-level jet moves
   northeastward, the warm layer will spread across southern New York
   into southern New England where a transition from snow to freezing
   rain is expected. Freezing rain rates should reach 0.05 inches per 3
   hours across this area.

   ..Broyles/Hart.. 02/07/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   42967091 42097230 41117504 40467716 40197804 40237844
               40567862 40827864 41657848 43157725 44327526 45197201
               45147013 44796928 44316885 43746975 42967091 

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