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Mesoscale Discussion 34
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0034
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0625 PM CST Sun Jan 21 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast Texas...southeast Oklahoma...western

   Concerning...Tornado Watch 1...

   Valid 220025Z - 220230Z

   The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 1 continues.

   SUMMARY...The threat of a tornado or two persists from northeast
   Texas into western Arkansas, and may increase over the next few
   hours. A few damaging wind gusts are also possible this evening.

   DISCUSSION...An initial zone of storms persist within a zone of
   deeper low-level moisture convergence, near the wrn edge of the
   low-level jet. Weak but sufficient instability remains in place for
   strong to severe storms, given the presence of low 60s dewpoints and
   continued cooling aloft. The 00Z FWD sounding shows a rather deep
   boundary layer, but also resides farther west near a cold front
   aloft with veered winds at 850 mb. In addition to cooling aloft,
   rapid drying is also occurring.

   Shear profiles farther east near the low-level jet axis remain
   favorable for supercells, and several small storms have shown at
   least weak mesocyclones. The strongest cell is currently over
   Navarro county TX with a well defined mesocyclone. The southern end
   of this line also has access to slightly better moisture, and a
   tornado or two cannot be ruled out.

   With time, convergence will increase along the approaching front,
   and this may boost overall storm activity, perhaps consolidating it
   into more of a line. Shear will remain favorable as this line
   advances eastward, with a wind and QLCS tornado threat.

   ..Jewell.. 01/22/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   35669426 35649368 35529317 35319288 35019279 34429290
               32869353 32209382 31789448 31609501 31629538 31599625
               31719666 31929667 32859629 33949571 34819535 35439499
               35599457 35669426 

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