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Mesoscale Discussion 107
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0107
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1113 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

   Areas affected...South-central and West-central North Dakota

   Concerning...Heavy snow 

   Valid 051713Z - 052115Z

   SUMMARY...Moderate to heavy snowfall will continue across parts of
   south-central and west-central North Dakota late this morning into
   early this afternoon. Snowfall rates of 1 inch per hour may occur
   within the heaviest bands with locally higher rates possible.

   DISCUSSION...The latest surface analysis shows a 1000 mb low near
   Aberdeen, South Dakota with an inverted surface trough extending
   north-northwestward from the low across central and northwestern
   North Dakota. Surface winds to the east of the trough are backed to
   the east with surface temperatures generally in the mid to upper 20s
   F across south-central and west-central North Dakota. Strong
   isentropic ascent is occurring above the surface trough where radar
   imagery shows a band of moderate to occasionally heavy snowfall.
   Model forecasts including the HRRR suggest that the band will
   continue to persist into the early afternoon but should begin to
   weaken after that. It appears that the heaviest snowfall will occur
   from the Bismarck area north-northwestward along the Missouri River
   over the next 2 to 4 hours.

   ..Broyles.. 03/05/2018

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...ABR...BIS...

   LAT...LON   45939891 45919956 46680075 47660182 47970204 48280164
               48140113 46679908 46189861 45939891 

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Page last modified: March 05, 2018
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