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Mesoscale Discussion 108
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   Mesoscale Discussion 0108
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1131 AM CST Mon Mar 05 2018

   Areas affected...CENTRAL AND EAST TX INTO LA

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 051731Z - 052000Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...A marginal severe threat is likely to develop across parts
   of central and east Texas eastward into Louisiana. Hail and strong
   wind gusts will be the primary threat. Weather watch issuance
   appears unlikely.

   DISCUSSION...Latest surface analysis shows a cold front moving
   through the Arklatex extending southwestward into northeast and
   central Texas. Convection is developing along the front. Surface
   winds ahead of the front are veered to the southwest with dewpoints
   in the mid 60s F. This is contributing to a pocket of moderate
   instability with MLCAPE estimated to be in the 1000 to 1500 J/kg
   range according to the RAP. The latest WSR-88D VWP at Shreveport
   shows some veering of the winds with height with 0-6 km shear
   estimated near 40 kt. Although deep-layer shear likely weakens with
   southwestward extend along the front, the shear environment should
   be enough to support a marginal severe threat this afternoon. Hail
   will be possible with the stronger updrafts. A few strong wind gusts
   will be possible as low-level lapse rates continue to steepen over
   the next few hours.

   ..Broyles/Guyer.. 03/05/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   32579536 32019634 31559701 30869818 30169715 30279521
               30749266 31699183 32749181 33109301 33049458 32579536 

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