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Mesoscale Discussion 1696
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1696
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0855 AM CST Mon Dec 03 2018

   Areas affected...Northeast FL

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch unlikely 

   Valid 031455Z - 031630Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...20 percent

   SUMMARY...The threat for isolated damaging wind and perhaps a
   tornado will peak within the hour in northeast FL.

   DISCUSSION...An embedded supercell has emerged from a larger area of
   convection that will approach the northeast FL coast of Duval and
   northern Saint Johns counties by 1530z.  The near-storm environment
   will remain favorable for the embedded rotating updrafts given some
   low-level hodograph curvature (effective SRH close to 200 m2/s2) and
   effective bulk shear near 50 kt, in a moist environment with MLCAPE
   of 1000-1500 J/kg.  However, regional VWPs show a gradual tendency
   for low-level flow to veer to more westerly and low-level shear to
   weaken.  This should result in a diminishing threat for a tornado
   beyond 1530z, though an isolated damaging gust could still be
   possible through late morning into early afternoon.  Given the
   short-term nature of the threat, a watch appears unlikely.

   ..Thompson/Hart.. 12/03/2018

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   29778117 29578186 29818235 30178224 30428173 30328131

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