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Mesoscale Discussion 1806
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   Mesoscale Discussion 1806
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0837 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020

   Areas affected...Portions of Long Island New
   York...Connecticut...Massachusetts...Rhode Island

   Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...

   Valid 160237Z - 160430Z

   The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512

   SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
   Watch 0512. Damaging gusts are expected to accompany a fast-moving
   squall line to the Atlantic coastline.

   DISCUSSION...A progressive squall line, with 18 dBZ echo tops
   occasionally exceeding 25 kft, continues to pose a damaging wind
   threat across portions of southern New England. Numerous
   damaging/measured severe gusts have been noted farther west across
   southeast New York into New Jersey over the past couple of hours.
   Strong low-level Warm air advection continues ahead of the squall,
   fostering up to 250 J/kg MUCAPE (mainly within the 850-500 mb
   layer), as shown by the latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
   soundings. Though buoyancy is mediocre, 50+ kt 925-850 mb wind
   fields are in place, and any downward momentum transport that occurs
   with the more pronounced downdrafts will support damaging gusts. The
   squall is expected to maintain intensity while on land, and is
   expected to move out into the Atlantic over the next 2-3 hours.

   ..Squitieri/Thompson.. 11/16/2020

   ...Please see for graphic product...


   LAT...LON   40457391 41437333 42277328 42777309 42847214 42867121
               42807071 42487036 41986994 41677008 41337048 40747197

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