|Mesoscale Discussion 1806|
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Mesoscale Discussion 1806
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0837 PM CST Sun Nov 15 2020
Areas affected...Portions of Long Island New
Concerning...Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512...
Valid 160237Z - 160430Z
The severe weather threat for Severe Thunderstorm Watch 512
SUMMARY...The severe threat continues across Severe Thunderstorm
Watch 0512. Damaging gusts are expected to accompany a fast-moving
squall line to the Atlantic coastline.
DISCUSSION...A progressive squall line, with 18 dBZ echo tops
occasionally exceeding 25 kft, continues to pose a damaging wind
threat across portions of southern New England. Numerous
damaging/measured severe gusts have been noted farther west across
southeast New York into New Jersey over the past couple of hours.
Strong low-level Warm air advection continues ahead of the squall,
fostering up to 250 J/kg MUCAPE (mainly within the 850-500 mb
layer), as shown by the latest Mesoanalysis and RAP forecast
soundings. Though buoyancy is mediocre, 50+ kt 925-850 mb wind
fields are in place, and any downward momentum transport that occurs
with the more pronounced downdrafts will support damaging gusts. The
squall is expected to maintain intensity while on land, and is
expected to move out into the Atlantic over the next 2-3 hours.
...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...
LAT...LON 40457391 41437333 42277328 42777309 42847214 42867121
42807071 42487036 41986994 41677008 41337048 40747197
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