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Mesoscale Discussion 1961
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MD 1961 graphic

   Mesoscale Discussion 1961
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0543 PM CDT Wed Sep 11 2019

   Areas affected...much of southern South Dakota

   Concerning...Severe potential...Watch possible 

   Valid 112243Z - 120045Z

   Probability of Watch Issuance...60 percent

   SUMMARY...A few storms may move north of the Nebraska border over
   the next several hours, producing large hail. Additional severe
   storms may develop later this evening over South Dakota with
   damaging winds as well.

   DISCUSSION...Storms are currently developing along a cold front from
   southwest SD into western NE, and also along and north of the
   east-west oriented stationary front. As the upper trough continues
   east, low-level warm advection will cause the stationary front to
   become a warm front, with a gradual influx of warm/moist air into
   southern SD. Initially, elevated storms capable of hail are expected
   over northern NE and far southern SD. Later in the evening, strong
   warm air advection at 850 mb will develop, resulting in increasing
   boundary layer theta-e. After 03Z, parts of southeast SD may warm
   enough to support surface-based storms with a threat of damaging
   winds.

   ..Jewell/Goss.. 09/11/2019

   ...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

   ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...ABR...LBF...UNR...

   LAT...LON   42980242 43790017 44159846 44299730 44109683 43539644
               42999640 42569713 42309867 42159984 42290143 42440212
               42550234 42740250 42980242 

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Page last modified: September 12, 2019
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